Mill = Hard Mode
It has been said many times before that a mill deck is essentially a much less efficient burn deck. Instead of aiming at 20 life you're aiming at, say, about 50 cards by the time you've got a few turns in. If Modern is a 4 turn format that means that we have 10-11 cards, including land, and say 9-10 mana on the play to win the game, whilst dealing with the other player's threats or disrupting them long enough to prevent them winning first.
A criticism of milling is that most of the time to progress our win condition we are not impacting the board state. Although burn does a similar thing, as damage to the opponent's life total does not typically effect the game until they reach 0 life, at least burn damage can be pointed at an opposing creature instead if this is more important. The highest impact milling spells do not have this utility, so any cards that can function as either efficient mill or utility are incredibly valuable.
Strategy & Card Selection
When assessing a card's viability for a burn deck lightning bolt sets the standard, so 3 damage for 1 mana (20 life / 3 damage per spell = 7 burn spells to win). The equivalent for mill is 7 spells for 1 mana (50 milled cards / 7 spells to win = 7 cards milled per spell). Once you know the available cards for this archetype, you'll see that there are extremely few options once you apply this standard, which I think is one of the reasons mill decks to date have always been considered more casual than competitive. That said, using this efficiency standard is really helpful in filtering down the potential cards we want to consider using.
The low number of available cards that meet this criteria also means that the threat density in a mill deck is not achievable in the same way as a burn or fast aggro deck. This pushes us towards a more combo and/or control strategy.
Key aims for the deck:
- A low, tight mana curve using a Turbo-Xerox style mana base with strong cantrip effects (e.g. scry, surveil) and card draw.
- Use of tutors to find key milling spells, doubling as utility by finding other cards when needed (e.g. removal, bounce or other traps).
- Sufficient removal to deal with key opposing threats to buy enough time to progress the mill win con.
Why UW and not UB black or Esper (UBW)?
UB mill takes a different strategy, grinding out the opponent's deck slowly whilst staying alive with a mix of discard, removal and Ensnaring Bridge. To leverage the power of Archive Trap, we tend to hold onto more cards in hand, meaning Ensnaring Bridge is not a good defence. Winds of Abandon, Path to Exile, Condemn and Settle the Wreckage offer much better removal than Fatal Push and Damnation.
The real benefit of black is access to strong discard, potentially Assassins Trophy with a green splash and Crypt Incursion, at the cost of white's better removal (exiling and tucking are better than sending creatures to the graveyard where they might come back from) and excellent sideboard options (Leyline of Sanctity to protect from discard is important when we're tutoring for Archive Traps, Stony Silence is famous for a reason, etc.).
UB mill has historically been stronger the UW mill, but I am interested in pushing UW to see how good it can be.
The Deck
With all this in mind, this is my take on UW mill:
1 DROPS (12)
4x Serum Visions (Cantip, Filtering)
The most powerful cantrip available in Modern. Having 8 cantrips in the deck allows a lower land count (see Turbo Xerox theory for more), smooths the draws and helps dig for relevant cards at the time (mill/land/removal). It is important to get the sequencing right when playing with fetchlands and tutors, but I still think seeing the extra card and allowing 1 land hands to be kept is worth the trade off, compared to say Opt.
4x Path to Exile (Removal - Exile, Optional Search Trigger)
Already one of, if not the best targeted removal spells in Modern and half of the point removal suite. The 'drawback' of offering the opportunity for the opponent to search for a basic land makes them choose to risk getting hit by one or more Archive Traps (and potentially loosing the game) or exiles the creature for a measly 1 white mana, all at instant speed.
2 DROPS (15)
4x Trapmaker's Snare (Tutor: Mill, Graveyard Hate)
Since the printing of Field of Ruin and Winds of Abandon and their ability to force the opponent to search their library, the value of Archive Trap has increased dramatically. This enables the deck to take on a powerful combo role capable of turn 4 wins, rather than relying on the slower traditional UB mill linear burn strategy. As such, tutoring for Trap is worth 3 more cards (or more with Fraying Sanity) than the classic UB Glimpse of the Unthinkable. Usually used at the end of an opponent's turn, Snare also finds Ravenous Trap, therefore offering 3 additional graveyard hate cards.
3x Merchant Scroll (Tutor: Mill, Card Draw, Bounce, Other U Instants)
Archive Trap numbers 9-11. Or with 20 cards in a graveyard can search for Visions of Beyond, effectively drawing 3 cards for 1UU which is still an exceptional rate in Modern. Post-board can also tutor for Dovin's Veto or the singleton Echoing Truth, increasing the effective number of cards that can interact with an opposing Leyline of Sanctity or similar affects.
4x Winds of Abandon (Removal - Exile, Compulsory Search Trigger)
This exile effect removal is decent, but it's the compulsory search trigger that makes this an auto include for UW Trap mill. Being able to do both in one card is great and frees up slots for other things. The overload option can become relevant in longer games, sweeping the opposing board and also getting around hexproof.
4x Remand (Counter/Cantrip)
A game 1 tempo play that usually buys us a turn to set up the combo. Remanding our own Archive Trap and replaying again for free is a sweet play and can help overload an opposing counter-wall. Usually the first choice slots to side out for match-up specific tools.
3 DROPS (4)
4x Fraying Sanity (Mill)
Doubles all your mill effects, plus mills 1 for each card our opponents put in the graveyard themselves. 1 copy in play enables the combo win with 2 Trap triggers, milling 54 cards (1 destroyed land + 13 + 13, all doubled), enough to win immediately vs most decks and possible from turn 3 onwards if they search themselves or turn 4 if you can trigger a search. Multiple copies double off the previous one, which is bonkers and extremely valuable in longer games.
2, 3 OR 4 DROPS
3x Mission Briefing (Filtering, Graveyard Tutor: Mill, Removal, Cantrip, Card Draw, Trap)
Better than Snapcaster Mage for this deck as the play from graveyard ability allows Archive Trap to be cast for it's alternative cost. So not only is this Archive Trap numbers 12-14, it also allows our other spells to be recast if needed instead which can be extremely useful. It can also be used over the top of an opposing Surgical Extraction targeting Archive Trap, recasting and exiling the Trap and saving the remaining Traps from being extracted.
4 DROPS
2x Settle the Wreckage (Removal – Mass Exile, Optional Search Trigger)
Instant speed mass removal with another opportunity for our opponent to search their library is great.
0 OR 5 DROPS (4)
4x Archive Trap (Mill)
The primary win condition of the deck via a 52 card combo mill but can also be cast incrementally if the opportunity is right, such as after an opponent cracks a fetch land or tutors. Normally cast for 0 thanks to searching decks being so common, or with a little help from our own triggered compulsory or optional searches (Field of Ruin, Winds of Abandon, Path to Exile, Settle the Wreckage). One of these takes a quarter of a typical library out in one hit. If this was translated into an equivalent damage card, it would usually read something like 'pay 0 mana to deal 5 damage to target opponent at instant speed'. Although more rare, can be cast 'properly' if required late game. As this is usually cast in multiples this often overwhelms a counter-wall and can even be replayed for free if hit by a Remand.
LANDS (24)
4x Flooded Strand (UW Mana, Tutor: Land)
Fetch land for mana fixing.
2x Polluted Delta (UW Mana, Tutor: Land)
Fetch land for mana fixing.
2x Hallowed Fountain (UW Mana)
2 shock lands are enough as we will typically hit 2 colours easily with this mana base and we don't want to pay too much life. These also give access to white mana at speed, which is handy for casting removal at a hasty threat.
3x Glacial Fortress (UW Mana)
Strong dual which rarely comes in tapped.
1x Prairie Stream (UW Mana)
Dual land that can be tutored via Flooded Strand that can save spending 2 life on a Hallowed Fountain.
6x Islands (U Mana, Basic Land)
Pain-free mana that can be found via fetches or Field of Ruin, also works around Blood Moon.
2x Plains (W Mana, Basic Land)
Also pain-free mana that can be found via fetches or Field of Ruin, and gives access to white mana under a Blood Moon.
4x Field of Ruin (Colourless Mana, Compulsory Search, Tutor: Land, Removal - Land)
Half of the compulsory search effects that enable this build and make it worthwhile using tutors to find Archive Trap. Tutorable via Tolaria West. The land destruction is also really useful against key targets like Tron lands, Celestial Colonnade and Valakut, the Molten Pinicle.
Sideboarding
The majority of the sideboard is dedicated to dealing with key threats to the deck:
- Permanents that give our opponent hexproof, like Leyline of Sancity
- Effects that shuffle our opponents graveyard into the library, like Emrakul, The Aeons Torn
- Dredge and other graveyard based decks
- Discard effects that disrupt our game plan
- Fast aggro or burn decks
- Counterspells
- Planeswalkers
0-DROPS
3x Revenous Trap (Removal - Graveyard)
Tutorable via Trapmaker's Snare as an answer to a shuffle effect or against a graveyard-based deck, removing their entire graveyard at instant speed. With the main deck Trapmaker's Snare and Mission Briefing, the 3 copies takes our graveyard hate suite to effectively 10 cards.
4x Leyline of Sanctity (Defence – Discard, burn, targeted effects)
Protection from discard is extremely useful for the combo nature of the deck, where we are spending time and mana on getting key cards in our hand (particularly Archive Trap). Also great against Burn decks and ocassionally planeswalkers with target effects. Usually put into play at the start of the game thanks to aggressive mulligans and it's ability.
2-DROPS
1x Echoing Truth (Removal - Bounce)
Tutorable via Merchant Scroll and re-castable with Mission Briefing, another way to create an
opening through opposing hexproof granting permanents. Also useful against lots of tokens, like spirits from Lingering Souls, as a tempo play against an attacking creature or to bounce a planeswalker who's about to ultimate.
2x Disenchant (Removal – Artifact or Enchantment)
Although more common in Legacy, this is included primarily for defence against enchantments and artifacts that grant hexproof or similar in addition to a useful more general answer to Blood Moon, Chalice of the Void on 1, Karn wish-board lock pieces and relevant opposing combo pieces. Re-castable with Mission Briefing.
2x Dovin's Veto (Counter)
Another useful target for Merchant scroll or Mission Briefing when relevant, this is an uncounterable answer to key opposing non-creature threats and is specifically included to combat opposing planeswalkers.
3-DROPS
2x Teferi, Time Raveler (Removal – Bounce, Counter-prevention)
Locking out enemy counters is extremely useful, the bounce removal is helpful to create an opening through opposing hexproof protection or buy us time. Not included main deck as Baby Tef is hard to protect, but since decks running heavy counters are usually threat light, comes in from the side against Control and relevant combo decks. Making our own sorcery speed spells instants allow us to keep our options open for longer, which is only ever a good thing. Also good to protect us againt Surgical Extraction or similar effects when comboing off.
4-DROPS
1x Supreme Verdict (Removal – Mass destroy)
Brought in as a third sweeper against aggro decks, uncounterable and a different spell to work around an opposing Meddling Mage. As with Settle the Wreckage, recastable thanks to Mission Briefing, if pricey to do so.
Alternative Main Deck Choices
There aren't a great deal of milling cards that meet the minimum 7 cards milled per mana efficiency we're aiming for, and even less if we're trying to keep the mana curve tight to keep the speed up.
0-DROPS
1x Detection Tower (Colourless Mana, Removal - Hexproof)
A main deck way to turn off hexproof on the opponent and their creatures as we can afford to run 5 colourless mana sources. Tutorable via Tolaria West. A good choice in a Leyline of Sanctity or similar heavy meta.
2x Tolaria West (U Mana, Tutor: Land)
Prior to printing of Winds of Abandon, Field of Ruin was the only compulsory search available, so was useful to tutor for these. Also tutors for Ruin or Detection Tower and Engineered Explosives if we are running these. Coming in tapped can slow us down a touch so we want to limit the number of lands that can't generate mana immediately.
1-DROPS
4x Hedron Crab (Mill)
This little guy is awesome and my favourite MTG card ever. Dropping one on turn 1 can easily net you 9+ cards milled early on, usually at least 12 if he survives thanks to the high number of fetch lands available in Modern. Left to their own devices just one of these monsters will mill a massive number of cards over time and is potentially one of the most efficient sources of mill per mana in the game. Saving a fetch to respond to removal means that you will usually get at least 6 cards out of the little fella. Occasionally a blocker if you are sure he's safe from getting caught by a spell or ability, or if you need to buy time. The threat of these will usually mean that our opponent will not board out removal, which can generate virtual card advantage if we do not draw any.
However, as the deck development has progressed more and more towards maximising the effectiveness of Archive Trap, I have sadly taken out my favourite happy crab in favour of other cards.
4x Expedition Map (Tutor - Land)
Compulsory search effects are so fundamental to the deck that reliably finding at least one copy is essential. Being able to find additional copies of Field of Ruin is therefore great, as is finding a second if the first gets Ghost Quartered or hit by Spreading Seas. Being able to tutor for any land also allows us to find utility lands like Detection Tower and Bosejui, Who Shelters All, helps with mana fixing and lets us get a basic land under a Blood Moon. Was taken out with the release of Modern Horizons as Winds of Abandon provided a more diverse and useful spell.
4x Condemn (Removal - Tuck)
Paired with Path to Exile can provide 8 1 mana instant speed high quality removal spells. As creatures are almost always attacking us and mill decks don't care about life, I would say Condemn is on par with Path to Exile, which is a bold statement to make. On one hand Path is better because it can target non-attacking creatures, however Condemn does not potentially ramp the opponent and has the niche benefit of upsetting Death's Shadow players. Worked well but was ultimately replaced by Winds of Abandon.
2-DROPS
4x Mesmeric Orb (Mill)
An all-star in longer games and fantastic against Control, with Hedron Crab can form a second, grindier axis of attack to complement the combo game plan. As this does not target it get around opponents with hexproof. Played carefully should not prove a problem milling us before the opponent. Less useful in faster games so when included was usually the first slot to consider when siding out cards. This was a mainstay in the deck until it was replaces by the faster and more flexible Mission Briefing.
Alternative Sideboard Options
LANDS
1x Boseju, Who Shelters All (Colourless Mana, Counter-prevention)
Tutorable via Tolaria West and useful for long games against control to hard cast Archive Trap or other spells without being able to be countered. However, it is most likely to be the first target of their own Field of Ruins so doesn't make the cut and we don't want to go above 5 colourless mana sources.
0-DROP
3x Surgical Extraction (Removal – Graveyard, Extraction)
An instant speed response to the shuffle effect of Emrakul, The Aeons Torn or similar that can be cast when tapped out. However, as the shuffle trigger from Emrakul or similar will remain on the stack we require a Ravenous Trap to avoid milling again from scratch. Currently a very popular main and side choice for a wide variety of decks due to the strength of graveyard strategies, the potential to hose combo decks by stripping out a set of key cards and stop Tron decks from ever getting online.
1-DROP
2x Fragmatize (Removal – Artifact or Enchantment)
Although more common in Legacy, this is included primarily for defence against enchantments and artifacts that grant hexproof or similar in addition to a useful more general answer. In Modern it's rare to find a target over 4 mana, so the limitation isn't often relevant. Re-castable with Mission Briefing.
4x Jace's Phastasm (Creature)
Offers a chunky blocker or a (rather desperate) beat down win if needed, but has generally been accepted by the milling community as not an optimal choice for some time. Also does not pair well with the combo nature of the deck.
2x Ethereal Haze (Fog)
Better than Holy Day as it also prevents non-combat damage from creatures. However, permanently exiling threats has worked out better than buying a turn in play-testing.
2x Angel's Grace (Fog)
Ethereal Haze is probably better
2-DROP
4x Blessed Alliance (Removal, Life Gain)
A strong removal card with added utility, however there are better choices.
3x Snapcaster Mage (Creature, Removal, Card Draw)
The best blue creature in the game, top plays being getting to play a Visions of Beyond for 3 cards or reusing a removal spell at a key time, both preferably while blocking and potentially killing an attacking creature. Funny but painful with Surgical Extraction. The biggest drawback is that flashback does not allow cards to be cast using their alternative cost. I gradually moved Tiago from the maindeck to the side as being an at best 3 drop is a little slow for the main, then dropped these completely as we now have Mission Briefing in the main deck which is significantly better thanks to also being able to cast Archive Trap.
3x Leave No Trace (Removal – Mass Enchantment)
There are a number of, usually white, enchantments that can significantly restrict the deck. An opposing Leyline of Sanctity shuts down all of the mill cards except a Fraying Sanity that was lucky enough to get in before a full casting cost Leyline. Rest in Peace turns off Fraying Sanity. Runed Halo naming Archive Trap is a pain. Detention Sphere can take multiple instances of Herdon Crab or Fraying Sanity. We can play around it but like most decks an unexpected Blood Moon can also catch us out so having a way to remove it is really useful.
The good news is that, perhaps with the exception of Detention Sphere and Blood Moon, these enchantments are usually sideboard cards and we have the choice of Leave No Trace. The kind of decks that play the white enchantments often play multiple enchantments with the same colour, so this card can deal with these in one go, netting some serious card advantage and opening up the board for our mill spells. This card also has the bonus effect of really upsetting Boggles, which is a nice turn around as they now often 4 main deck Leyline of Sanctity.
Currently replaced by Fragmatize, should artifacts drop in popularity would be an easy re-inclusion in the sideboard.
3-DROP
1x Wipe Away (Removal - Bounce)
Under review as an uncounterable alternative to Echoing Truth. Worth considering if Control decks increase their share of the metagame substantially.
OTHER
2x Engineered Explosives (Removal – Mass Targeted)
I ran 2 for some time but dropped these in favour of cheaper, more targeted answers. Being tutorable via Tolaria West is helpful also.
4x Ensnaring Bridge (Defence - Creatures)
Opposed to the UB mill architype which empties their hand very quickly, this deck often has more cards in hand thanks to improved card draw, tutor effects crafting our hand, or holding onto Archive Trap for the right moment. As such Ensnaring Bridge is much less effective at protecting us from attacking creatures and not a good choice for the deck.
4x Ghostly Prison (Defence - Creatures)
Too slow against the decks it's needed against.
Shifting Boarders (Field of Ruin Target)
For decks running basic lands. However, over 90% of the competitive metagame run mostly non-basics, so rarely a problem and not worth a sideboard slot which is better spent on more widely useful cards, e.g. sweepers.
Numbers
Using a Hypergeometric calculator and referring to the excellent articles listed further below, I've estimated the following numbers of effective cards thanks to cantrips and tutors, along with probabilities on the play/draw by turn 4:
Mill
= 18 + 4x 3(18/60) Serum Visions + 4x 3(18/60) Remand
= 24 + 4x3x0.3 + 4x0.3
= 24 + 3.6 + 1.2
= 28.8
82%/89% of 4 by turn 4.
Compulsory Search
= 8 + 4x 3(8/60) Serum Visions + 4x 3(8/60) Remand
= 8 + 4x3x0.13 + 4x0.13
= 8 + 1.56 + 0.52
= 10.1
86%/89% of 1 by turn 4.
53%/59% of 2 by turn 4.
Removal
= 10 + 4x 3(10/60) Serum Visions + 4x 3(10/60) Remand
= 10 + 4x3x0.17 + 4x0.17
= 10 + 2.04 + 0.68
= 12.7
93%/94% of 1 by turn 4.
69%/75% of 2 by turn 4.
Lands
= 24 lands + 4x 3(24/60) Serum Visions + 4x (24/60) Remand
= 24 + 4x3x0.4 + 4x0.4
= 24 + 4.8 + 1.6
= 30.4
85%/91% of 4 by turn 4.
Ideal Hand
Figures when digging only, beware double counting. Excludes mulligans.
Ideal 10/10 cards (by Turn 4 on the play)
= 4x Land 4x Mill 1x Removal 1x Force Search
= 56%
Ideal 10/11 cards (by Turn 4 on the draw)
= 4x Land 4x Mill 1x Removal 1x Force Search
= 68%
Articles
https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/how-many-lands-do-you-need-to-consistently-hit-your-land-drops/
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/articles/brewer-s-minute-how-many-lands
The Future
Any future new Modern legal cards that can reliably mill at an equivalent or better efficiency, tutor for instants, have compulsory search effects, hate on opponent's graveyards or improve the quality of the cantrips are well worth considering.
On my current watch list are the following:
- Collective Voyage
- Brainstorm
- Ponder
- Preordain
- Gitaxian Probe
- Dig through time
- Treasure Cruise
- Honor the Fallen
Summary
If you've got this far thanks for reading!
This take on UW Mill seeks to leverage the raw efficiency of Archive Trap to it's fullest using an Xerox style mana base and strong tutoring and removal suites.
I'd welcome any thoughts, suggestions or questions.
