ManaScrew

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guitarhero

4 October 2010

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Preventing Mana Screw

Mana Screw (man-a-scroo):

1. Not having enough or the right kind of mana to cast spells from your hand.

2. The number one cause of game losses at tournaments.

3. A symptom of deck inconsistency, usually caused by lack of land.

You may have asked yourself, "How much land should I put in this deck?" I HOPE that many of you ask yourself this question each time you build a deck, but answering it can be difficult. Hence, this article was written.

Lately, I have seen a great many decks that have far too few lands for the mana curve they are supporting. I've commented on quite a few, but I figured I should hit this problem at its root, rather than dealing with its consequences.

The AVERAGE, SAFE NUMBER OF LANDS to get consistent draws and consistent play (read: land drops each turn) in a two-colored deck with a balanced curve, IS 24 LANDS.

Here are some helpers to determine whether to add or subtract land from that base building block of 24 lands: 1) Decks that have fewer high mana-cost spells (5, 6 or 7+ Converted Mana Cost (CMC)) can sometimes get away with one or two fewer lands.

2) Decks that are entirely based around one and two drops can usually get away with 20-21 land.

3) Decks that are mono-color can sometimes get away with one or two less land.

4) It is a very odd deck indeed that is successful in tournaments with fewer than twenty land (see TAMA’s Vamp it up deck).

5) Tri-color decks (such as Jund, Grixis, or R/W/U) usually add a land, bringing their average land count up to 25.

6) Decks that have more high mana-cost spells (5, 6 or 7+ CMC) usually add one or two lands. For example, if Cruel Ultimatum is your finisher/win condition, missing a land drop will lose you games. Therefore, Grixis Control decks typically run 26 land.

7) When adding extra colors--up to 4 and 5 color decks--adding land is a must.

These, however, are only guidelines. You must ask yourself, "What do I expect this deck to do? How do I want this deck to win?" If it is an early, aggro mono-red deck sporting only one and two drop goblins, then go crazy and try out 16 land. Although I think you'll find that you’ll need to mulligan more aggressively (until you get two land in your hand) to prevent yourself from getting mana screwed. On the other hand, if you have creatures like Plated Geopede, that require land drops to be effective, you'll want to up the land count (and use fetch lands like Scalding Tarn and Arid Mesa), even in a deck with only small CMC creatures and spells.

If your deck can't win if you don't get up to four mana (to get out your Vengevine, Bloodbraid Elf, or planeswalker), it is absolutely insane to go with less than 24 lands. Most competitive decks that contain numerous cards at 4 CMC or higher will run 25-26 lands.

A careful examination of your curve and cards are in order when determining whether to add or subtract land. Copious amounts of play testing will also let you know what changes need to be made. Remember that even the most consistent decks can get mana screwed 10-15% of the time. This is where proper mulligan technique is essential to get it down to or below that 10% game loss due to mana screw ratio.

Ask yourself further questions about the play of your deck:

"Am I getting mana screwed often?" = Add lands.

"Am I getting color screwed (not getting the right type of mana)?" = Add land and manafixers, such as fetch lands and tri-lands.

"Do I have to mulligan a lot due to lack of land?" = Add Lands.

"Am I getting CONSISTENTLY mana-flooded (too many lands with too few cards)?" = Subtract lands.

We have a great deckbuilding tool in this website. It helps us view the color of land we need and what our land is producing. It does not, however, take fetch lands into account. You need to look at your land yourself, as well as play test to figure out if your land base is consistently getting the kind of mana you need.

On the Topic of Fetch Lands:

Fetch lands are most useful as mana fixers. That is, they can get you the right mana to cast spells. This should be the number one reason to use them, and ANY deck sporting colors that have a corresponding fetch land should be using 4 of them, no question. For example, a U/G deck should always have 4 Misty Rainforests. Similarly, a Jund deck should always have 4 Verdant Catacombs.

Fetch lands are ultra effective with landfall triggers, If your deck has any amount of cards with landfall triggers (like Lotus Cobra, Steppe Lynx, Khalni Heart Expedition, can only grab you one type of land. There are certain decks (like Valakut Ramp, or even Boros Bushwhacker) that make good use out of ‘enters the battlefield tapped’ fetch lands, like Terramorphic Expanse, simply for the extra landfall trigger.

Fetch lands also put land in your graveyard, which makes them work great with certain cards, such as Knight of the Reliquary and Grim Discovery. They also shuffle your deck, which can be useful with cards such as Vampire Nocturnus (if the top card is a land you can shuffle it away and hope for a black card), Sphinx of Jwar Isle (don't like that top card? shuffle it away!), and Jace, the Mind Sculptor (put the least useful cards in your hand on top and shuffle 'em away). In EDH, Sensei's Divining Top is great with shuffle effects, giving you access to more of your deck.

Fetch lands are least effective in their capacity to thin decks. When you search up a land with a fetch, you have taken a land out of your deck, making it slightly less likely to top-deck a land when you draw. I emphasize ‘slightly.’ Although, the percentages do grow with more fetches.

Fetch Land Calculations

(Warning: Math content -- skip over this bit to the conclusions if you're not statistically inclined)

Let’s say your deck starts with 24 land. You draw your opening hand, and it has 3 land in it.

This leaves 53 cards in your deck, 21 of which is land. This gives you a 21/53 chance of top decking a land (39.6%).

If your first draw is not a land, there will be 52 cards in your deck, 21 of which is land. This gives you a 21/52 chance of top decking a land (40.4%).

Next turn, let’s say you don’t draw a land, but drop and activate a fetch land. This takes two cards out of your deck for the turn, one of which is a land. This gives you a 20/50 chance of top decking a land (40.0%). If you had not activated a fetch, the chance of top decking a land would be 21/51 (41.2%). .
Next turn, you don’t draw a land but drop and activate a fetch land. This again takes two cards out of your deck for the turn, one of which is a land. This gives you a 19/48 chance of top decking a land (39.6%). If you had not activated any fetches, the chance of top decking a land would be 21/50 (42.0%).

Next turn, you don’t draw a land but drop and activate a fetch land. This again takes two cards out of your deck for the turn, one of which is a land. This gives you a 18/46 chance of top decking a land (39.1%). If you had not activated any fetches, the chance of top decking a land would be 21/49 (42.9%).

Next turn, you don’t draw a land and but drop activate a fetch land. This again takes two cards out of your deck for the turn, one of which is a land. This gives you a 17/44 chance of top decking a land (38.6%). If you had not activated any fetches, the chance of top decking land would be 21/48 (43.8%).

So, assuming that you top deck no land and play only fetches:

The first fetch land only lessens your chance of top decking a land by about 1.2%.

The second fetch land lessens your chance of top decking a land by about 2.4%.

The third fetch land lessens your chance of top decking a land by about 3.8%.

The fourth fetch land lessens your chance of top decking a land by about 5.2%.

Each additional fetch land continues to lessen your chance of top decking a land following this pattern.

So, activating three consecutive fetch lands does lessen your chances of top decking a land by about 3.8%. However, to decrease you chances of drawing a land by 3.8%, you have to pay 15% of your starting life total. Plus, the percent chance of drawing a land is decreased so minutely in relation to the amount of other random factors in a game of Magic.

Therefore, fetch lands should rarely be used only for their thinning capabilities and especially not in decks where the land count is low to begin with. Lessening an already low chance of pulling land you need is not good!

A good mana base is the key to preventing yourself from getting mana screwed. Fetch lands can be a great tool for color-fixing, along with other uses, such as landfall triggers, and shuffling your library. However, they can also amplify the problems of a deck with too few land, and the life loss isn’t worth the ability to thin your deck. Ultimately, it’s up to you to decide what decks fetch lands belong in, but hopefully this article helps you make that decision.

This article, for the most, part was referring to Standard constructed decks. In particular, it was referring to "old standard" and "new standard." Zendikar block, M11, and Scars of Mirrodin does not have tri-lands and many of the cards mentioned. Regardless, the basic concepts are the same. Extended and legacy decks, however, can make use of a huge plethora of mana fixing, such as dual lands and lands that can tap for any color. Explore these and use them wisely.

I sincerely hope that this article can help many of you work out mana problems with your tournament hopeful decks. For more information on building the rest of your new tournament deck, check out some of the other articles on deck building like merubanhot's article An Introduction to Tournament Deckbuilding: Mindset and Methods.

• guitarhero