Burkek & KrazyCaley's Standard Analysis

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burkek

3 December 2011

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Standard Analysis Engine!

To see Burkek's part 1 (which covers tempered steel and wolf run) go here: http://tappedout.net/mtg-forum/challenges-and-articles/a-take-on-the-meta-for-standard/

Article by burkek, commentary in italics by KrazyCaley.

This time we will take a look at U/B control and Solar Flare.

U/B control

U/B control's main threat is its ability to nullify its opponent's threats. It will use many counter spells, many removal spells, many draw spells, the amazing Snapcaster Mage, and then will destroy the opponent with a single big creature.

KrazyCaley says: This control deck is very by-the-book. A bit of kill, a bit of counter, and a nice hefty biggie to finish you off. The deck is weak against any fast aggro such as RDW, as it does not have any real early defense, and typical builds run so few copies of their win condition cards that another control deck will easily pick apart the win condition and leave the U/B player helpless.

Individual card analysis:

Mana Leak: The centerpiece of the deck and arguably the best counterspell in standard. It is 2 mana, which is why it is so good. This card is the bread and butter of a control deck.

KrazyCaley says: Mana Leak is a fine counterspell, but makes decks that run it more vulnerable in control vs. control matchups, or in any game that goes long. In the late game, leave three open at all times after casting something unless the need is urgent.

Dissipate: I consider this card an additional set of Mana Leaks that work better the later in the game it is. Don't forget about its ability to exile instead of sending a card to the graveyard, it matters more in innistrad standard than most standards.

Go for the Throat/Doom Blade/Victim of the night: These removal spells are another major aspect of U/B control. They all essentially do the same thing, destroy an opponent's creature for a mere two mana, but they all have a slightly different drawback. They all cost two mana, and which one you should play depends a lot on your specific metagame, but they are very powerful.

KrazyCaley says: “With the proliferation of Wolf Run Ramp, I've heard it insisted that Doom Blade is the choice over Go for the Throat. I still think that black creatures are more frequent than artifact creatures, though.

Snapcaster Mage: This card, in my opinion, is what makes U/B control viable in the current standard. It has the ability to do everything a U/B control player wants it to, it blocks and it allows them to flash back one of their precious counterspells or removal spells. There is a definite reason this card carries a 30 dollar price tag, it is just that good.

KrazyCaley says: This is a good card, though I personally don't think it's quite worth the hefty price tag. The main thing to remember about Snapcaster is that he takes mana to operate. Typically you'll deploy him as a de facto counterspell, but you'll likely need at least five mana open for this. Incidentally, Snapcaster is a fine choice for an early Despise or other such effect.

Liliana of the Veil: this planeswalker does everything. It kills hexproof creatures, discards, and can even forces the opponent to sac half of his or her permanents. This is a real steal for 3 mana, and its no surprise that it is the most expensive card in the deck, it's for a very good reason.

KrazyCaley says: “Liliana 2.0 is an exceptional planeswalker. She has a low cost, ramps up to her ultimate quickly, and has a solid utility minus ability that can put out fires quickly. The U/B player of Liliana doesn't even care about discarding cards to her because he likely has draw engines. This is what the U/B player is hoping will slow a RDW player. It is really the only thing that you need to worry about from this deck until it gets 6-8 mana.

Black Sun's Zenith: this card is good because it is a mass removal spell that permanently cripples creatures and then replaces itself in the deck. This card is needed for matchups against a large number of creatures to make sure board control is maintained.

KrazyCaley says: Another great answer for RDW players who are overeager, and a pretty good answer for Tempered Steel if deployed early. Remember to pace your creatures. If you have a 1/1 and a 3/3 out, no need to cast anything else against this deck until they waste this board-wiper on you. Always keep something in reserve, and remember that many versions of this deck run Life's Finale instead of/in addition to this card.

Ponder: This card is banned in modern for a reason, it is insanely powerful. It draws you a card and most of the time also allows you to choose your next two draws. This means you have the threats you need when you need them most of the time, but even when they are not there, you get to avoid wasting three turns at a minimum to find the answer you need.

The downside of Ponder is that choosing not to shuffle will give your opponent some information about what is likely to come next.

Think Twice: Instant speed draw with flashback, not much else to say.

KrazyCaley says: Often it's a good idea to cast a low-level threat against this deck just to burn some of their counterspells. If you decide to employ this tactic, the best time to do it is on your turn when they have three mana open and a Think Twice waiting to be flashed back in the graveyard. It's frustrating to them and will slow them down. A 3 or 4 mana creature that is still a serious threat is great for this purpose, like a Bloodline Keeper  ^Flip or something.

Forbidden Alchemy: Instant speed draw 1 of any of the top 4 cards of your library and discard the rest, it means you have a pretty high chance finding the answer you need when you need it. Sending the rest to your graveyard really just gives you more fodder for Snapcaster Mage, so it's really no big loss anyways. It also has flashback.

KrazyCaley says: Always pay close attention to what went in the graveyard.

Actual creature threat packages: These are actually less of a deal in my opinion than the slew of instants and sorceries above, but hey, you have to win somehow, and since Standard doesn't have any Stalking Stones…

Wurmcoil Engine: 6/6 with lifelink and deathtouch that replaces itself with 2 3/3s, one of which has lifelink and the other deathtouch. This is a very good creature that is resistant to being killed.

KrazyCaley says: The best way to stop a Wurmcoil Engine is to keep it from hitting the field. Human and other White decks should consider this a prime Oblivion Ring target along with Liliana. Green and Red players have few answers other than a bigger creature, while the best answer for blue players is to steal it or counter it. Clones will also work. Using kill spells on the Engine is not the most efficient way of dealing with it, since killing off it and its progeny will eat your whole hand.

Grave Titan: It comes into the board and gives you additional bodies at the same time. If the opponents board is empty it attacks for 10 the next turn and generates another two guys. The guy is very useful for a deck so heavily based on board control.

KrazyCaley says: Vulnerable to many kill spells and all the answers above. Steal it if you can, just make sure you shut it down somehow before it casts Army of the Damned by itself.

Consecrated Sphinx: This card draws you threats while still providing damage. With the additional card advantage provided by this guy, it is much more difficult for your opponent to do anything and the game is generally over very quickly.

KrazyCaley says: Believe it or not, this card is actually the preferred fatty for this deck. If you let this live, it, and other big threats, will become nearly impossible to kill as the U/B player floods you with card advantage. You can't win against a control deck that draws three (or more) cards to your one. If you have to choose between killing this, the Grave Titan, or the Wurmcoil Engine first, believe me, you usually want this guy dead first.

Ok so now how do you beat it? The answer generally lies in creatures with hexproof that you can play very fast or creatures that are uncounterable. Protection from black and blue is also quite useful, but not necessarily needed. Also, if you play enough creatures fast enough you might be able to race the board control u/b control provides and win.

KrazyCaley says: As above, I also find that other control decks will usually mop the floor with this deck due to its overreliance on Mana Leak and its relatively low number of (vulnerable) win conditions. Burning Vengeance decks are a very interesting matchup against this deck that will test the U/B player's discipline, as the match will essentially come down to whether Burning Vengeance ever resolves or not.

Individual cards:

Thrun, the Last Troll: Uncounterable, hexproof, regenerate, this card is very hard for a u/b control player to deal with.

KrazyCaley says: Thrun was made to beat this deck. Until they cast a Wurmcoil Engine, they will have no answers.

Dungrove Elder: A turn 2 dungrove elder on the play by itself can often spell doom for a u/b control player because it is very difficult for any card they have available in their arsenal to deal with it.

Shrine of Burning Rage: Blue and Black don't really have any good artifact removal options, making sticking one of these often an essential GG for a u/b control player.

KrazyCaley says: Be careful of when you play your shrine. The best time to do it is on turn 2 when you've played first, before their counter mana is up.

And of course you could play a deck like tempered steel whose entire plan to beat this deck can be summed up as “Catch me if you can.” A very very fast aggro deck such as tempered steel has the goal of producing so many threats so quickly that the u/b control player is unable to deal with all of them.

As always, I am probably missing some very good cards to help counter this deck, so if anyone has any more suggestons feel free to comment.

KrazyCaley says: I would add that Despise-style effects are of exceptional efficacy against this deck. The only way they can beat you IS with creatures and planeswalkers, and both of them will remain in hand for a while. A first turn Despise that hits their Liliana, their Snapcaster, or a win condition will often essentially win you the game. As white, Oblivion Ring is your best friend here, and should be boarded in immediately. Green should consider Thrun, the Last Troll, and if it's a creature-based build, then Autumn's Veil is a very good idea. Kessig's Wolf Run players should consider the Veil as a way to protect Inkmoth Nexus. Black players have an interesting dilemma in sideboarding against this deck: Doom Blade kills Wurmcoil Engine but not Grave Titan, while Go for the Throat has the opposite problem. The best response is probably half and half, to ensure that you're at least not drawing dead, especially if your deck can draw cards.

Solar Flare

Now that you have seen U/B control, prepare for much of the same. The main base of solar flare is the same, with the addition of graveyard resurrection and white.

So the general game plan and strength of solar flare is the same as U/B control, but however solar flare has more weapons. It has more and better board clear effects in the form of Day of Judgment. It also has the benefit of Unburial Rites being able to resurrect creatures from its graveyard. Watch out for the patented Unburial Rites+Sun Titan+Phantasmal Image+Phantasmal Image play for 3 sun titans in a single turn.

One sentence summary of solar flare game plan: Counter, counter, kill, exile, day of judgement, unburial rites, win

Individual cards:

Rather than going over all of the same cards I went over earlier (yes, literally all of them), I am just going to post the additions to the deck in solar flare

Day of Judgment: One of the main reasons to run solar flare in my opinion. It is the best board clear in the format (arguably) and it will take care of any pesky hexproof creatures an opponent plays.

Again, RDW and other aggro players beware. You MUST keep creatures in reserve, or wraths will end you.

Oblivion Ring: removes everything relevant, and most things not relevant also.

Unburial Rites: the foundation of the graveyard part of this deck. This card allows you play your big finishers for 4. This is the way you will win with this deck a fair amount of the time.

KrazyCaley says: Using Memoricide or a similar effect against Unburial Rites will buy you a considerable amount of time against this deck.

Creature threats:

Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite: He beats token decks outright and most other decks pretty quickly thereafter.

KrazyCaley says: Yet another reason for RDW players to be wary. Wolf Run Ramp players must answer this Inkmoth Nexus-killing problem or else try to win with their titans alone.

Sun Titan: remarkable in large part because of his ability to “combo” off with phantasmal images in the graveyard to make multiple of him in a single turn.

KrazyCaley says: The single most dangerous card in the deck. In addition to the filthy combo with Phantasmal Image which can bring back practically everything in the graveyard, this will recur Oblivion Rings and other problems.

Phantasmal Image: see Sun Titan, but also it was recently brought to my attention that he manages to kill Thrun, the Last Troll. In addition, all the creatures mentioned in U/B control can also be targets

A creature I want someone to explain to me why no one plays in this deck:

Jin-Gitaxias, Core Augur: He is used a ton in reanimator and I am very surprised not to see his awesome card advantage used in solar flare.

KrazyCaley says: At 10 mana, this card is likely just too slow and too vulnerable for what it does. Of course it can be reanimated, but its effect is not decisive enough for a 10 mana card. An aggro player will shrug off having no hand size, and while this card will give you overwhelming card advantage, it also has extremely low toughness for a 10-mana creature, does nothing to stop what the opponent already has out (unlike Sun Titan with Oblivion Ring, etc.) and puts you on the clock to win the game before you mill yourself. (Assuming you bring it out on turn 4, you will have six turns to win).

Weaknesses in deck

Its mana base leaves a lot to be desired, and it can be vulnerable to early land removal in the form of ghost quartering one of its first dual lands.

Also, creatures with hexproof or uncounterable are still good against this deck, just not as good as they are versus u/b control

Graveyard hate is a good plan when facing this deck, as destroying their graveyard can also destroy their win condition.

KrazyCaley says: This deck is slooooooowww. It'll murder you quickly once it gets up and running, but it takes a while to get there. As burkek noted, interfering with the mana base of this deck will slow it down further. I also recommend stopping Unburial Rites whenever possible with Dissipate, Memoricide, or anything else that will stop it from resolving ever again. Halting Sun Titan will also make this deck very sad.

individual cards:

Ghost Quarter: This card can be used to target early dual colored lands, and while it is not perfect, it can mess up a solar flare player's gameplan.

Thrun, the Last Troll: It is possible to kill it with this a couple cards in this deck, regenerate can even work around Day of Judgment.

KrazyCaley says: But not clone creatures, which this deck always mainboards to begin with. Against a green deck, the Solar Flare player will know Thrun is coming in from the sideboard and will often add even more clone effects to stop him. I do not recommend Thrun against Solar Flare except perhaps in Game 3 as a psych play.

Nihil Spellbomb: this is the graveyard hate most people seem to be using in their sideboards. Its not the best grave hate in the game but it seems to be the best option in standard.

Shrine of Burning Rage: the mainboard for solar flare still has little to no artifact removal, making sticking one of these guys a very possible gg

KrazyCaley says: RDW loves this card for matchups like this. Play first, mulligan to this card and two lands, and you will often win. It'll take an O-Ring to stop this nasty customer.

Inkmoth Nexus: still is very difficult to kill and makes a good win condition when combined with tempered steel, more infect creatures, or kessig wolf run.

KrazyCaley says: Wolf Run Ramp against this deck would hard dominate this deck because it is much faster, EXCEPT that Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite shuts it down completely. Ms. Norn can block even a Primeval Titan for a kill, completely eliminates the primary Inkmoth Nexus threat, and Wolf Run has few answers for her. When playing Solar Flare, you should be looking get this card out against WRR decks immediately.

again decks like tempered steel will try to race, but it can be much harder to do when they have Day of Judgment

KrazyCaley says: This deck beats Tempered Steel decks. It has wrath, usually more counters, and generally a much more powerful late game. Unless it draws poorly, Flare kills Steel, which is part of the reason it's so popular these days.

So overall it is a u/b control deck with a few additional fancy toys. While these fancy toys do add quite a bit of functionality, this deck is mostly just a pimped out u/b control.

KrazyCaley says: U/B has the advantage of having more control capability, but Flare has the advantage of killing more quickly and certainly once online. From experience I can tell you that Flare is much more fun to play, and does much better against most of the metagame than the vanilla U/B build.