Dipping into the reserves
Features
squire1
9 June 2014
2306 views
9 June 2014
2306 views
For many years now people have discussed the economics of Magic: The Gathering ©(MTG). This topic, as it relates to older cards, inevitably comes around to a discussion about the reserve list and whether it was just or not to have such a policy; and to an even larger extent, whether it actually has an impact on the economics of the game in general. The discussion herein will center on the topic of the reserve list.
For those who do not know what the reserve list is, it is a list of cards first published in 1996 that Wizards of the Coast©(WOTC) released of cards that they will never reprint. The rationale for this was that the reserve list was put into place to ensure the value of very rare and limited print cards moving forward for collectors. The impetus for this was the printing of the Chronicles™ set. In Chronicles™, WOTC reprinted many cards from Arabian Nights™, Antiquities™, Legends™, and The Dark™. The sin which WOTC was attempting to atone for was that Chronicles™ was printed in such a large run and was so cheap that it either decreased or threatened to decrease the secondary market prices on many cards. In turn, collectors started to fret about the possible decrease in value of their cards.
While WOTC has made plenty of claims that they are not particularly concerned with the existence of the secondary market and how it functions, I have to call shenanigans. The secondary market is part of what allows game stores to exist. If it did not exist, as in WOTC created a no resale policy, then game stores may not be able to make enough money just from sealed product. Additionally, WOTC did not care about the secondary market, then limiting print runs on popular products would not make sense, nor would the application of WOTC resources to create a virtual secondary market online.
Now in many cases, the reserve list eliminated the ability to reprint cards that WOTC would not reprint anyway like ante cards. This decision is fine as it impacts almost no players/collectors; though putting it into solidified policy is questionable. Some cards were eliminated that were just bad, like Wood Elemental. Again this decision affected almost no one and the secondary market did not care either since the prices of these bad cards are approximately the same as bad rares printed 20 years later. But, WOTC also eliminated the cards that were really the goal of the reserve list, the cards that were already expensive back then. Cards like the power 9 or Library of Alexandria, were long considered to be so powerful that they were coveted by players. These cards are still coveted to this day and more expensive than other cards because they will never be reprinted.
So then, inevitably, in every conversation about the reserve list, someone takes a stance about whether or not it’s a good thing. I have been outspoken on this topic before and I likely will be again, but I will state my opinion very clearly. The reserve list was and is a bad idea. It was a knee jerk reaction to another bad decision (printing Chronicles in such a high print run). I am sure that we could all think of several laws that started as bill born in crisis and got pushed through legislation because of the sponsor’s scare tactics surrounding or in the wake of that crisis. This is essentially what happened. WOTC was young and impressionable. They did something that was a miscalculation, maybe a large one. Their constituency gave an outcry for something to be done before the sky falls. WOTC did the thing that seemed right at the time to them rather than taking the time to develop a good solution. And here we are. Similarly to a law born of crisis, every time someone suggests that the reserve list be removed or changed, the doomsayers come and scare everyone into the same state of mind they were in previously regardless of the reality of the situation and nothing happens.
Now that I have said it, some people will stop reading and post a comment about my being wrong. That’s fine; but let’s examine a couple of markets that might be analogous to MTG and how reprints have effected those. Now of course there is no perfect analogy to the MTG economics, but we have to work off of similar areas. In this analysis, I will look at the comic market, the baseball card market, and the video game market.
In comics, we should first look at the most expensive comic in the world. I believe that Action Comics #1 is still clocked in at around $2-3 million dollars for a near mint comic. This comic was then reprinted in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. Each of these reprints having huge print runs. That said, the price for Action Comics #1 steadily increased. Now that seems counterintuitive. During these times and even now, I can buy a multimillion dollar comic for under ten dollars so that I too can read it but I can’t get millions for it. Now some of these reprints had cover difference or size differences (something to signify it is a reprint) which makes sense as to not actually confuse it with the originals. So we have to look deeper into what actually makes the item worth money. There are many factors, scarcity of that actual version and the iconic nature of the item being two of the biggest. Note that in the 1990s different versions of the same comics with small print runs were very en vogue. These smaller print runs of certain versions rose in price. Everyone could enjoy reading the regular ones, but the collectors wanted the fancy ones. This is very similar to the nature of the foil card prices in MTG. Now once people became too involved in the economics and too far detached from the purpose of the product, the secondary market started to crumble because the prices of the “special” editions became too exorbitant for anyone to care about. But comics are for stories you might say, and they are not cards. Well baseball cards are.
Let’s take a look at the next example, baseball cards. The most expensive baseball card is Honus Wagner. This card became valuable, because its print run was shorter than other cards of the same time. Honus himself did not approve of smoking and the cards came in tobacco packs back then, so he wanted the print of his cards stopped. In essence, this action created rarity of that run, of “that” run is the important part. Now again, I can go online and currently and purchase my very own card that is a near exact reprint of this card for under $5. Pretty good deal, right? Hell, it may even have better printing technology and hence have a crisper and more vibrant image. Oddly enough the price of the original has not dropped any more than the rest of the baseball card market, and contrarily to the rest of the market has risen regardless of all of the reprints and significant number of counterfeits. But again you might say “Well yes, these are cards, but you don’t play with them.” True, but again, there is no true analogy to MTG cards, so we can only look at similarities between products.
Unlike baseball cards, video games are played and can get actual physical use and can be damaged similar to MTG cards. Let’s take a look at an oldie but goody that everyone has heard of (unless I am older than I think). Starfox was a game for the Super Nintendo that was made in the 1990s. There is a “special” version for tournament play that sells for about $500. I can buy the non-special edition for about $25 or some people may download the rom for free. The reason is again because of the limited print run of the “special” editions. This is analogous to the judge foils in MTG. They are more expensive because collectors want the “special” edition that has a shorter print run. Even if the “special” edition plays the same and looks the same, they are worth more because of scarcity.
The point starts becoming clear that just because 1 million new Underground Seas are printed, does not mean that all of them will go down and stay down. Think about what collectors in MTG want. I said collectors, not players. As a player, I want the best cards play whatever nonsense I brew. I have no problem spending money in the secondary market of cards. Collectors want cards to collect. These people may play as well. Collectors want to foil their decks and when foil is not available, they want full art, special editions, black borders, original printings, signed cards, altered arts, etc. They want these because of the rarity, the value, the look, and all of the other reasons and that is awesome and absolutely their prerogative. Give me a MP white border reprint of the same card so I can build the most silly EDH deck ever and I’m happy.
Again collecting comes down to the scarcity of the actual item. Another common argument I hear is that it is all supply and demand and by increasing the supply, the demand stays static and prices will drop. That sounds great from a short sighted perspective. I see it differently. While a supply of reprints increases exponentially, the price of the reprints will decrease considerably, the cost of old originals will dip at first, agreed, but will bounce back due to the scarcity of that individual print run. You will however, attract more players to eternal formats by offering these cards up to new players. This will eventually translate into small piece meal purchases in the secondary market as well as new players slowly pimping out their decks with the old versions of card. This can be seen now with the difference in prices between revised dual lands and beta dual lands. New players would stimulate interest in eternal formats rather than create a deterrent. If WOTC did not think that creating new vintage players was a good idea, then Vintage Masters™ would not be a product. They simply found a way around the reserve list and in a secondary market that they could control to a certain extent.
What we have gotten instead of legitimate reprints from WOTC is the same problem that other industries have experienced counterfeits. There has been more and more talk of this throughout the MTG world and it is becoming a huge problem.
So we are left with the question that everyone has to honestly answer, “Can the reserve list go away?” I would say that it can. I think the benefit to the players outweighs the momentary deterrent that everyone thinks about. But after we consider that it can go away, we must examine how it can go away. I do not suggest the entire reserve list cards being printed in a playset in FTV: Reserve (patent pending :P) at MSRP $20 at an unlimited run. That is overboard. Actually that would be funny, because the stores would make so much money for a year, as would WOTC, but then bad times all around. I get that. I think that they get reprinted as needed for various formats and in fairly limited runs. Did JTMS go down a bit after its FTV print, yes, will the original and especially the original foil keep going up, yes. This is simply a correction in the market, like when a stock splits. You have the old one, go get a new one cheap and they will climb again. Did Tarmagoyf go down after reprint? No, because WOTC is pushing modern and mitigated the increase in supply with an increase in demand. The point is that you can do these things in limited enough batches over time that they have little impact. In addition to the limited run, WOTC could develop a process to mark cards as reprints. This is something they have done in the past with white border cards, but people really hated that idea, so make a little symbol or star next to the collector number and then people will go after the non-star cards.
The point is that there are solutions and the knee jerk reserve list is not it. Killing the reserve list would have an immediate panic impact from collectors and that is no big deal, but I think the long term gains of the primary and secondary market become more stimulated by allowing people the chance to become invested emotionally to these cards and then they will see and eventually want the “special” ones. I think WOTC has backed itself into a corner that they are too afraid to crawl out of. I say, stand up, be a man, admit that you made all kinds of mistakes early on, and start trying to do it right. If you disagree and think that reprinting cards is a bad idea, then I will gladly trade you a new art basic mountain for an Arabian Nights basic mountain.
My favorite counter-argument to abolishing the reserved list is that so many people would lose a ton of money as soon as the announcement comes.
My initial response to that is "Why are you investing tens (hundreds) of thousands of dollars in a trading-card game and what did you honestly expect to happen?"
June 9, 2014 12:14 p.m.
Totally agree with everything here. Nice article by the way squire1 . You used great arguments and I've learned a lot more about the reserve list because of it.
June 9, 2014 1:01 p.m.
I have to agree 100%.
The reserved list was a mistake, and I hope that it isn't permanent. Unfortunately, eternal formats like Vintage and Legacy are dying.
June 9, 2014 1:12 p.m.
UrbanAnathema says... #6
Very well said squire1 even if I disagree.
The counterargument that can be made of course, is that other trading card games do not have nearly the kind of card values that MTG has. That is almost assuredly a function of the secondary market's confidence in Wizards and the promise of the Reserved List.
The reality is also is that Magic is currently more popular than ever before, and enjoys support from the retailers in an economic environment where other similar products are struggling. How many Magic retailers are comic and collectibles stores? Those collectibles are where the margins are currently being made. Where is the impetus for Wizards to change anything? What would be the benefit of risking spooking the retailers that provide the environment where your product is currently thriving?
Will the Reserve List eventually die? Perhaps. But it isn't likely to happen when Magic is at its peak of popularity. It's far more likely to happen when they are trying to make the game more accessible after a dramatic dip in popularity and have far less to lose.
June 9, 2014 1:18 p.m.
Agree with the reserve list being a bad idea, completely. But also believe that investment in any product of a collectible nature should be protected to some extent. Reprint all the cards you want - but just make it clear that they're not originals, and there shouldn't be any problems.
The guys with their power 9 keep their investments and the players get to play with new cards. No big deal.
A fair number of people get into this game just to make a bit of money. I know I do. The reason that it's a sound idea is that original versions will always be worth more money than reprints for extremely sought after and rare cards. It's not actually a bad market to play at all.
June 9, 2014 2:39 p.m.
http404error says... #8
As far as marking the reprints, just put them in the new card frame. Then no collector will touch them. :P
June 9, 2014 3:13 p.m.
we have seen time and time again that reprints don't destroy the old card prices, alot of Portal 3K stuff has seen judge reprints and Commander reprints and the originals are still extremely valuable and sit at original values. If they did judge foil prints of original duals for example, they would probably be even more expensive than the current ones, but in low supply and the originals wouldn't drop. I believe that the reserved list cards could be reprinted, slowly, in lower numbers like FTV releases or Modern Masters or maybe even Commander's Arsenal type stuff, but if they were that worried they could publish a list of quantities per year of allowable reprints from the reserved list. Like 5 per year off the list for example. This would stem the panic and costs dropping of existing collections and not harm the market. IMO of course
June 9, 2014 5:18 p.m.
golffore297 says... #10
Mark Rosewater gets asked a LOT about the Reserved List on his Tumblr account Blogatog. He sees it as a necessary evil. He doesn't like it himself and thinks it should be abolished, but understands why it exists and why it may be needed.
June 9, 2014 6:08 p.m.
CapnMooMoo says... #11
I honestly can't even see how people would be concerned with the removal of the Reserved list. Everyone knows reproductions (or in this case reprints) in any market sell for far lower than the original, and hardly affect value. That's the point of a reprint.
Just my two cents.
June 9, 2014 6:38 p.m.
tappedout really needs a liking system similar to facebook, as i would like this article. BRING ON THE KHANS OF TARKIR UNDERGROUND SEAS!!!!!!!!!!
June 9, 2014 7:02 p.m.
pumpkinsword says... #13
Based on the comments, doesn't seem all that controversial to me. XD
June 10, 2014 1:41 a.m.
@pumpkinsword: Maybe because most of the people on this site are players rather than collectors.
Maybe Wizards don't want to abolish the List because it seems like bad faith, since they DID promise not to.
Another reason is that maybe Wizards is cautious of pushing too many formats at the same time. Reprinting the List would mainly be to increase interest in Legacy and Vintage, and might compete with their current focus on Modern and Standard. Maybe when more people are into Modern then they might consider garnering interest in Legacy and Vintage.
These are all hypotheticals, and the player in me is just begging to be able to play with an Underground Sea or Mox Jet .
June 10, 2014 2:42 a.m.
I'm a collector as well as a player and have no protest. It's not an unreasonable thing for them to do.
June 10, 2014 4:07 a.m.
VampireArmy says... #16
I agree with just about everything here. Whenever the subject costs up at the local lgs back when i used to go there was always the guy who owned a lot of those older cards being the doom sayer pretty much guiding the room against it. I can say for sure that I've seen cards be repainted yet retain the exact same value ie goyf and Bob. The collecters will always want the original s and the players will use whatever edition they can afford.
June 10, 2014 1:14 p.m.
alpinefroggy says... #17
The reserved list hits players like me the most. I have spent a lot of money on magic, but I have to draw the line somewhere. That line has been revised duals and other legacy staples that are simply inaccesible because of the ludicrous prices. I really want to play legacy, but can't and I imagine many people out there feel the same way. I think it would be a good idea to revise the reserved list to allow limited reprints in order to "solve" it. It allows the value of card to not drop significantly but allows some sort of accessibility.
June 10, 2014 6:01 p.m.
whalesequence says... #18
Geez, just thinking about getting a reprinted set of ABU dual lands for EDH makes me excited.
June 10, 2014 7:03 p.m.
KnightsBattlecry001 says... #19
I think getting rid of the reserve list would be great. As stated by others on here, it won't effect the prices of the original versions. Most reprints are cheaper and the originals stay the same as they were or even go up. The reserve list hurts the players more so than anything. If Wizards wanted people to get into the other formats reprinting the older cards that are worth an arm and a leg, they need to reprint them.
June 10, 2014 8 p.m.
Honestly, it feels like more of a pride issue at this point. WOTC created this thing in order to stem the tide of outrage, and now instead of saying, "Yeah, it was a mistake, here's how we fix it..." they continue to hide behind their original reasoning.
My God, if they printed ABUR dual's with the new frame and the artwork from MTGO I would be so happy. If they could be foiled, I'd sell my wife for them.
Their is a secondary problem, and one that not many people like to talk about; Secondary market price fixing. If you look at the two largest online retailers of Magic (StarCity and ChannelFireball), you can quickly see that they set the prices for cards. Not only through sheer market manipulation, but also through sponsoring teams, which play specific decks (Which the store owners know about beforehand), and then when players do well with those decks, they increase the price of key cards. Case and point, when Caw Blade burst onto the seen from nowhere, StarCity was raising the price of Stoneforge Mystic literally as matches were being played. Now, I certainly can't fault them for that, as it's just good business practice to do so, but that is a large percentage of where the secondary market prices come from.
Because when you talk about the reserved list, it's ultimately a discussion about how an Underground Sea can be $350, yet be critical to high caliber play in Legacy or even EDH. For goodness sake, StarCity sells the COLLECTOR EDITION (The square, gold border version) of Underground Sea for $150! Simply because most people will allow you to play with those in EDH. That's unbelievable!
/rant
Yeah, I want the ban list gone, I want vintage and legacy to become more accessible through a smart reprinting of the crucial cards there. I'm fine paying $250 for a reprinted Black Lotus , but $350 for a dual land is insane.
-BuLLZ3Y3
June 10, 2014 10:54 p.m.
HydrophobicFish says... #21
Just kinda brainstorming...
What if we made everything on the reserve list a collectible item, not a playable item.So, what if we banned everything on the reserve list, from all formats, and then did functional reprints of all of the items on the reserve list?
June 13, 2014 10:16 a.m.
I don't agree. In fact I believe your comparisons are way off. I understand that you pointed out how there is no direct analog for comparison but that doesn't just mean you can compare anything to it. For instance your baseball card comparison is way off. while they both are "cards" they're functionally different things, therefore their prices are affected differently by different things. For instance, in your example of the Honus Wagner card, you pointed out how it was valuable because of the small limited print it had combined with the fact that it's an older card, etc. You then go on to point out that you can buy a reprint of this card for much much cheaper and it hasn't effected the price of the original. That's because baseball card's values are derived solely from their availability, their demand, and how many were printed in that run. So a new printing of an old card has no effect because functionally it's a completely different card that belongs to a completely different set. Having a brand new 2014 Topps Honus Wagner card is not the same as having an original T206 Honus Wagner card, even if it was printed to look like to original.
For magic cards, this does not work the same way. The cards have value beyond the collectors appeal (especially the old power 9). They're part of a game and they have a function within that game. That means reprinting a card makes it functionally identical to the original. Unlike baseball cards, cards like the power 9 have extremely powerful abilities, that combined with their limited availability is what drives the price on these cards. If those cards were to see a reprint, the new card would function in the game identically to the original. The newer version will be easily available and will create a surge in the supply. This increase in supply will take demand away from the originals, because now the only draw to the original print is the collectors value and consequently this will cause a drop in price. As you can see reprints have different effects on different markets.
I'm sure some will argue that you could always just reprint it in a limited run, like modern masters, but what would be the point in that?? Yes a limited print would limit the surge in supply that I mentioned but that's about all it would accomplish. Eventually you'll just end up with two very limited printings of a card with one copy being extremely expensive because it's a powerful card with very few copies available and the other copy being even more expensive because it's the same card but even fewer copies are available because it's the original version.
Realistically if the power 9 were reprinted, one of two things would happen. Either they'll limit the print in an attempt to not hurt the price of the originals but it doesn't matter and the influx in supply still creates a big price drop or, they limit the print so much that in just a short time you end up with another card that is outrageously priced because it's so good and so hard to get. One thing a limited print run would accomplish for sure though, is for a brief moment it would make some cards easier to find than normal and maybe some people who whine about cards being super expensive and hard to get might stop for a couple weeks (which I wouldn't mind one bit). But other than making the whiners shut up there really is no reason for Wizards to WANT to reprint them. They're all cards wizards has already deemed overpowered or deal with things like Ante which aren't a part of the game anymore as you pointed out, so it's not like they're looking for a reasons to make more of them. Collectors obviously don't want them reprinted, if you own them already you'll lose value if they do and if your a collector trying to get them it wouldn't make sense to hope for a reprint because if more copies have to be printed in order for you to get access to it then it's price will drop, taking away from the collectors value aspect of it, plus a collector would want the original anyways. So, it seems like the only people who actually want this card reprinted are people who play magic but don't collect. They want access to this card for a cheaper price because the collectors value price hike doesn't appeal to them. When all things are considered though, that's not enough for Wizards to go out of their way to reprint cards that would have never existed if they hadn't been created during the early stages of M:TG's existence.
June 13, 2014 1:04 p.m.
So, here is the thing...if functionality plus supply and demand were the only things that drove up magic prices you might be right. However, you are not. Let's take a look at a card everyone owns, a mountain. If the functionality of this card is paramount, like the power 9, then many would say that a mountain is playable in more situations than the power 9. Now has it seen reprint, yes. So by your logic reprinting a mountain should drag down the prices of mountains. Now go look at the prices of mountains from Arabian nights. Only expensive because they were a mistake. Same functionality. Power 9 is always a bad example anyway. They actually cost more money mostly because they are in the power 9. Also take a look at Moat for example. If this card was printed today, it would be a rare and worth a few dollars. It's power level is not all that high. But it is expensive only because it is old and sees some tournament play. I know many players that play legacy. After they foil thier deck, they black border thier duals. This is more expensive only due to status and scarcity, there is NO functional upgrade. If functionality was the only important thing then Black Lotus and the rest of its buds would never go up. They are only legal in a near dead format. Which incidentally is near dead because of the level of entry being so high and that WOTC is not really attempting to support it anymore.
Also assuming a reprint would decrease the value of the older version kind of means that you don't consider the evidence. How are those Tarmogoyf prices doubling after reprint working for you? How about Sensei's Divining Top ? How about almost all of them that have seen reprint. Like any financial market, after an increase in supply, there is a correction period. But after that both the reprint and the originals go back up and the more desirable one goes up the most. So, yeah if everyone loves the new art or black border or foil it will go up more. But there is no evidence that I am away of that shows cards going down and staying down because of reprints. Only evidence to show that economic growth can be slowed due to this, which is calls inflation control. Banks and governments do this all the time. Inflation control is seething that all governing bodies need to consider, and WOTC is the mtg governing body.
June 13, 2014 7:20 p.m.
NobodyPicksBulbasaur says... #25
If Wizards were to make any changes to the reserve list, they would have to do so with a defined, well-published plan. This plan would have to list exactly how they would plan to reprint the cards, and exactly how they expected this to effect the secondary market. I don't expect this to happen.
What Wizards is doing to correct their reserve list mistake is to heavily support the Modern format. Now that they have their shit together as a franchise, they created a format that they can both manage and foster trust in. Also, no card in Modern exists on the reserve list.
The draw for Legacy, to a large extent, is that your deck, once made, always exists. It won't rotate. It will be legal forever. This holds true in Modern, barring banlist updates. People seem to fret about the banlist in Modern because they don't want their deck to get banned out of existence.
The problem with that line of thinking is that even without banlist updates, the Legacy metagame is always shifting as new product is printed. Goblins and Maverick used to be HUGE decks in Legacy, but now see only fringe play with very little tournament success. Even if your deck is legal forever, it won't be relevant forever. You'll still have to make a new deck some day if you want to be successful.
tl;dr: Wizards "fixed" the reserve list when they created Modern. No, it's not the same as Legacy. But it's comparable.
June 15, 2014 12:04 p.m.
I believe it is worth noting that very few cards can actually change the meta of legacy and modern. Cards like Krenko, Mob Boss , and Elspeth, Knight-Errant are a couple of the cards that have changed the meta forever. These cards will see reprints (or already have), but the power nine, as the forever-used example, will never see reprints. WOTC reprints the less expensive cards (I.E. under $35, approximately), due to the desire by the public for them, but for those who weren't there to pull a power nine from an alpha pack, are royally boned. I believe that the meta can shift for eternal formats, but very few cards can actually do this.BTW, NobodyPicksBulbasaur, I did!
June 15, 2014 12:55 p.m.
squire1 i really like your article. i feel that it is really well written and researched. keep up the good work
erabel says... #1
I don't think anyone disagrees with the Reserve List being a bad idea, even if it were kind of a good idea at the time. I don't even think there are many people who would argue that they still want it around. The bit that might cause a bit of disagreement is that the Reserve List could be removed.
There are a lot of higher-ups in Wizards R&D (who aren't in charge of this decision I don't think, but I figure their voice carries a bit of weight in the company) that are vocally against the List, and have been for a while, but despite what they've been saying for several years at this point, the Reserve List isn't going anywhere.
I think the best shot at a reversal of the Reserve List would be, theoretically, to remove some of the cards that aren't on the power level of the dual lands and such. Stuff like Copy Artifact , Gate to Phyrexia , Mana Matrix , and Phelddagrif ; not necessarily "bad" cards like Wood Elemental , just not the best cards out there.
June 9, 2014 11:32 a.m.