Modernized Magic 2.0
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Hjaltrohir
23 January 2015
2751 views
23 January 2015
2751 views
Modernized Magic 2
Hey guys, awesomeguy37 back here again with a follow up edition to my first article here and I wanted to discuss the state of the Meta after the recent banning. I have taken into account some comments and feedback from last time so I hope I have improved, anyway, let's jump right in…
So, the recent banning update rendered Treasure Cruise, Dig Through Time and Birthing Pod unplayable and with it, a few decks and archetypes. Probably the banning that had the most impact on the format as a whole was Treasure Cruise. Before its banning, UR Delver/Aggro was the most played deck in Modern. It was consistent, fast and had efficient creatures (Delver of Secrets Flip, Monastery Swiftspear and Young Pyromancer). However, the card that took it from Tier 2 to Top Modern Deck was the infamous Treasure Cruise. In the Modern format and especially in the Delver archetype, Treasure Cruise is basically an Ancestral Recall due to the amount of instants and sorceries in the graveyard. It allowed the already-ok deck to become super-good with the card advantage it provided. Now without the power of Treasure Cruise, Delver will probably fall back to a Tier 2 deck with not many Top 8s and not as much popularity. Birthing Pod, another banned card, had a whole archetype built around it. It was an Abzan midrange build based around attrition and incredibly efficient 1-of creatures and ramp. Not surprisingly, the archetype was known as Pod and without the Birthing Pod the archetype and deck will most probably crumble away and will not be played at all. However, the old pod decks might gravitate towards a Junk Midrange deck as is talked about later on. The final ban, Dig Through Time, was the banning with the least reason as it was the least played and least oppressive of the three banned cards. Dig Through Time was not played in very many decks, only Scapeshift and dabbles in UWR Control and other various control builds. This could result in the drop in popularity for UWR Control and other decks, although Snapcaster Mage will be a lot more viable now due to graveyards not being delved away so it may still even out in the end. Wizards stated it is a 'Preemptive banning' as Delver would apparently use it instead of Treasure Cruise. However, this is doubtful as the extra would render it worse, and probably unplayable. IN Legacy, however, Treasure Cruise also got the hammer so Dig Through Time may not lose much price depending on how many legacy decks pick it up. Anyway, the recent bannings brought around the downfall of two major archetypes, Pod and Delver as well as less efficiency for based control decks.
So, now that the two top decks in the format are gone, what is going to happen? Well let's just make this clear, no-one knows, you can only speculate, I am sure by the end of February we will know but until then we can only guess. This is also only my opinion as well, this is not set in stone and shouldn't be taken for granted, I am only guessing based on the information open to us. So, to start with, the Junk/Abzan Midrange deck is almost certain to go up. Which means the already expensive Liliana of the Veil, Tarmogoyf and Dark Confidant will most likely rise as demand rises. This is because, without the Delver deck on top, Junk is given the chance to shine especially with Siege Rhino and potentially Anafenza, the Foremost to buff them. It will likely become the new dominant aggro/midrange deck in the format due to new great printings and powerful, old cards. Also, it makes sense for all the Pod players with worse lists due to the absence of pod to buy the extra couple cards and move on to Junk, again making it increase in popularity. Next, a deck that does well from this banning is Tron. Tron is a kinda slow so Delver completely beat up on it rendering it worse. Pod also beat up on it by utility creatures and attrition so without these two decks in the format, Tron is set to do even better and since it won 1st at a SCG Modern Premier IQ, it was not doing badly in the first place. This means that Karn Liberated especially, as well as many other Tron cards including Grove of the Burnwillows and even Emrakul, the Aeons Torn are all set to rise a bit. Finally, the Scapeshift combo will almost certainly become the dominant combo deck due to the fall of Pod andScapeshift, Cryptic Command *list* and Remand will probably rise in price. (In fact Scapeshift has already risen according to MTG Goldfish!) So those decks are probably going to rise in popularity and price so I would pick up some pieces now if you are looking to build them and maybe get there before the increase.
Some cards that will rise in popularity or price are some graveyard based cards such as Tarmogoyf, Snapcaster Mage and the ilk so watch out for those. Anyway, that brings the article to a finish, let me know what you think in the comments below and whether you agree with my opinions on the state of the meta going forwards. Thanks for reading
awesomeguy37
I still have hopes for breaking Jeskai Ascendancy in this post-Cruise world. Hopefully it can get as fast (and hopefully faster) than Storm while still being consistent.
January 23, 2015 10:13 p.m.
I'm more of a standard player, but Treasure Cruise was honestly making me think of dabbling in modern a bit and giving U/R Delver a go. sigh... I guess it just wasn't meant to be.
I guess I could probably go Pauper Delver instead. Maybe...
January 23, 2015 10:15 p.m.
Unforgivn_II says... #4
Let's not forget that we haven't seen delver with Monastery Swiftspear and no TC yet. I wouldn't write it off just yet...
January 23, 2015 10:23 p.m.
CommanderOfBolas says... #5
As far as the content goes, I think you did a pretty great job with the article. You seemed to keep everything on topic while giving a decent enough explanation of your opinion. my only critique would be to work on your writing style. it is something I have been attempting to improve myself for quite some time now. some of your comments seemed wordy and sort of drawn out, and I think they could be a bit more clear and concise. Again, though, great job with the article!
Also, I onticed that you didn't mention the unbanning of Golgari Grave-Troll. I think he is a powerful enough card that he should be mentioned as something potentially format defining (maybe that was an overstatement, but I wanted to emphasize the idea that he could have a big impact). I'd like to here your thoughts about him, as I think he is worthy of a discussion
January 23, 2015 10:43 p.m.
CanadianShinobi says... #6
I disagree with CommanderOfBolas in regards to Golgari Grave-Troll. Mostly, because I believe that the Troll isn't worth much discussion at all. Everyone thought Bitterblossom was worth discussion, but it had a minimal impact on the format and only in Tier 2. Modern does not possess enough tools to properly Golgari Grave-Troll to its full potential. It is my opinion that the Troll is another Bitterblossom. Good to have off the ban list, but overall minimal in impact.
As for the article, I'm going to disagree that we don't know what will happen to the meta. I believe we can accurately assess the impact that these banning will have, because by removing these defining cards we will simply go back to what works. And what works was the meta prior to the release of Khans. However, I'm hoping that Fate Reforged will have some minimal impact to provide, though I'm skeptical.
However, the article was well written and got to the heart of the matter, which is important. However, I too believe you could have mentioned Twin. I would also caution using MTG Goldfish as an accurate source for any analysis of the meta. Anyway, well done.
January 23, 2015 11:23 p.m.
jandrobard says... #7
You mentioned Tron! Yay! I had the exact same thoughts, but the point about abzan is very valid.
January 23, 2015 11:45 p.m.
Ok, let me just say that DTT was insane. If they did not ban it right than and there Splinter twin would be way to oppressive for the format. Than in scapeshift if you do resolve a DTT you just win the game. 100% every time. Also you failed to mention Twin. That deck was before khans one of the top teir decks in the format. Also don't forget Affinity. That has the ability to run of Junk decks as easily as it did with pod. Only reasons we have not seen much of these decks in the last few months was because cruise.
A final note, Merfolk now has the ability to be a strong contender.
January 24, 2015 1:05 a.m.
Hjaltrohir says... #9
@killersuv Affinity and merfolk were hardly changed at all and unlike tron, are unlikely to rise a whole amount in popularity. Twin is interesting as I didn't believe that twin really needed Dig Through Time to play well but if I am wrong then Tron will become less good and less popular after the bannings take effect.
@Matsi883 No problem, thank you again for publishing it!!!
January 24, 2015 1:33 a.m.
Bipolarprobe says... #10
I definitely don't think Golgari Grave-Troll should be written off so quickly, I mean sure there are no Dread Return or Cabal Therapy to abuse the grave with it like in legacy but there are powerful graveyard options and plenty of non cruise/dig delve options that would love to have a dredge 6 creature pumping the yard full. I certainly don't think it'll be format defining, but I do think it opens the path for more and better graveyard based decks
January 24, 2015 2:53 a.m.
Yes affinity will rise a lot. Whilst they weren't directly changed, with delver gone it's now the most durable aggro deck. Affinity will come back.
Twin didn't need dig through time at all. Dig will have helped it but it sort of disappeared what with all the aggro going around. If it had come back with dig it would have been awesomely powerful but without it it will just be the same as ever.
Sure dig was great for com decks but labelling them as oppressive. Pffft sure; if your deck runs absolutely no interaction.
January 24, 2015 9 a.m.
You completely ignored Kikipod which was still a thing pre-banning... I think Twin will still be the top combo deck over scapeshift. And as I side note, 8Rack is in an extremely good position with 2 of its 3 worst matchups gone. All that is left in Tron >:3
January 24, 2015 11:42 a.m.
Ohthenoises says... #13
For those saying that "we will just go back to a pre kahns meta" you should amend your statement to "we will go to a pre kahns meta without pod".
That's an important distinction to make because pod was one of the strongest decks in the format. The banning of pod leaves a vacuum of power that other decks that had bad matchups against Pod could potentially fill.
8 rack can be pretty powerful in a pod-less meta but it still dIes pretty hard to bad draws. I'll still keep playing it though.
G/R Tron and U Tron are really powerful in the meta, specifically U tron with Ugin, the Spirit Dragon. (Can confirm, he's broken in U Tron.)
Vengevine seems pretty powerful now that pod has gone away with the exception of Anafenza, the Foremost hosing it.
Knight of the Reliquary maverick and KoR big zoo seem like it might be nice to see their heads rise up.
January 24, 2015 5:29 p.m.
Vengevine also folds to Rest in Peace and Grafdigger's Cage which are sideboard staples.
January 24, 2015 5:39 p.m.
Bipolarprobe says... #15
Well vengevine still has good creatures to hardcast and sideboard options to fight graveyard hate. like Nature's Claim Naturalize Krosan Grip, so it has ways to be functional and Golgari Grave-Troll just gives it more dredge and an even better creature. Like I said before, not format defining by any means, but definitely opens more options
January 24, 2015 5:58 p.m.
Ohthenoises says... #16
ChiefBell I was just mentioning mainboard answers. People tend to mainboard anafenza
January 24, 2015 6:40 p.m.
I still don't buy the Tron's rise. U-Tron may be stronger with Ugin, the Spirit Dragon, but that depends a lot on what meta will be now. The strongest ability of Ugin is his -X that clears up the board and helps Tron stabilize. However, it's only powerful against heavy (coloured) board presence, which most of the powerful decks on the format didn't have. Twin, Jeskai Control, Affinity (heavy board presence, but all colourless), Burn... the only top deck that should have great board presence is B/G variations, Abzan, Jund or The Rock.
However, I don't think Ugin will be that powerful against them either, since the heavy disruption of those decks gives Tron a hard time assembling it's game. Apart from them, we have Naya Zoo, Merfolks and other aggro decks. Against them, I think Ugin will be a powerhouse. But I don't think they will be the most powerful decks from now on.
I think Pod's banning hurts Tron more than Delver's nerfing helps it. Tron had a very good match-up against Pod. Pod gave Tron more than enough time to assemble it's game, and didn't have good answers for Tron's win conditions. Karn Liberated, Wurmcoil Engine, Sundering Titan would almost always trade, at least, 3 for 1. And Pod used to keep down a lot of decks that usually beat Tron, such as Bant Auras, Affinity and BGx. Without Pod, those decks will probably go up and rise in popularity, and they are bad match-ups for Tron.
January 26, 2015 9:11 a.m.
If tron adjust to include Batterskull and Wurmcoil Engine they'll start having a fantastic time, taking advantage of all the 'fair decks'. I agree that Tron had a good time against slower midrange and a bad time against aggro. However with the banning of Birthing Pod I don't think midrange will dwindle in popularity - I think that Rock variants will just become a lot more popular. Therefore I don't think pods banning is that relevant because more decks will just fill the space. It won't be the case that slow and fair decks just disappear, it'll be the case that different ones emerge or that Junk / Abzan just gets super popular again.
Anyway, with the right tweaks Tron can walk over aggro anyway. Vigilant lifelink is pretty strong.
January 26, 2015 11:02 a.m.
Ahhh. Nice article BTW... I'm glad we can all have a nice discussion without bring out the hate...
January 27, 2015 8:58 a.m.
deathtouch_roadrunner says... #20
I'd have appreciated more paragraph breaks in this article. The text blocks were very globbed.
January 27, 2015 9:40 a.m.
CommanderOfBolas says... #24
how high do you guys think she is going to go? I need 1 more for my legacy Jund deck, should I pick her up as cheap as I can now? or should I wait? I don't have any legacy events that I plan on going to (except for my lgs Wednesday legacy, but they allow proxies anyway), so im not in a hurry. but there isn't going to be a reprint of lili any time soon, so unless she falls out of demand (I don't think she will), her price will just keep going up, right?
January 28, 2015 11:22 a.m.
No she will fall out of demand. People will stop paying this price for her and refuse to buy until the price falls. This will decrease demand. Also what we're seeing here is a rush of pod players building BG/x - once that's all done demand will fall to normal levels.
Matsi883 says... #1
awesomeguy37, great article. Right to the point, and pretty much on target with what I'd say. The one thing I would think you left out is Twin, but besides that, great job and sorry for the two-day delay!
January 23, 2015 9:47 p.m.