The Reason I'm Broke (but no regrets)
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GoldGhost012
14 April 2016
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I entered my LGS at about 2:30 PM on April 9th of our most glorious year 2016 and walked out a few minutes later $105 lighter and a nice booster box of Shadows over Innistrad heavier.
14 April 2016
4062 views
I entered my LGS at about 2:30 PM on April 9th of our most glorious year 2016 and walked out a few minutes later $105 lighter and a nice booster box of Shadows over Innistrad heavier.
Remember that now.
SOI is a fun set. It was fun in Sealed, it looks fun in Standard, it might make splashes in eternal formats, has some great elements to it, and I can't wait to draft it. But the question was, was I at least going to break even when opening the cards inside? According to this article made at the end of March, the estimated value of SOI is $104; that's including the commons and uncommons and excluding the Buy-a-Box promo (Elusive Tormentor
Flip). The estimated value of the box was very close to the total I paid, so chances are good I'll be able to break even. Obviously some cards' prices may have depreciated or risen since the article was written, but I'll use it as a baseline for EV.
Unlike the EV article, I'll only go over the rares, mythic rares, and foil cards I pull, even though I know I pulled a few good uncommons like Skin Invasion Flip. So my calculations will reflect that, which will skew the final value a bit.
I'll admit, I wasn't as hyped for the Shadows over Innistrad box as I was for Battle for Zendikar or Oath of the Gatewatch. Those Expeditions really do a great job of getting people excited for the set! But SOI looks great, and I absolutely love cracking packs, so I figured I'd still get a box and enjoy opening it!
Pack 1- Corrupted Grafstone. Hopefully that isn't indicative of what the rest of the box will look like.
Pack 2- Silverfur Partisan. Apparently the gods of MTG really want me to play Wolves/Werewolves, because this is the third Silverfur I've opened so far.
Pack 3- Diregraf Colossus and Gibbering Fiend. At least the Colossus is a cool card!
Pack 4- Goldnight Castigator. A pretty cool mythic, could see some Standard play. Maybe.
Pack 5- Bygone Bishop. Okay, pretty sweet card.
Pack 6- Epiphany at the Drownyard, Swamp. Probably will see some play.
Pack 7- Brain in a Jar. I have 2 of these now, maybe I should make a Standard deck with them.
Pack 8- Forgotten Creation. I'm feeling my Sphinx's Tutelage senses tingling...
Pack 9- Tamiyo's Journal, Gatstaf Arsonists
Flip. Also my second Journal. Standard control with Journals, Brain in a Jar, and Epiphany at the Drownyard?
Pack 10- Wolf of Devil's Breach, Startled Awake Flip. WHAT. Double mythics?! Pack of the year!
Pack 11- To the Slaughter. If Foul-Tongue Invocation was played, this'll definitely be played.
Pack 12- Scourge Wolf. Seems alright.
Alright, so a third of the way through the packs. Seems like some decent pulls, including 3 mythics. A little higher than average, I think.
Pack 13- Thalia's Lieutenant. Strong Human card for sure.
Pack 14- Choked Estuary, Runaway Carriage. Lands are always worth something!
Pack 15- Confirm Suspicions, Tireless Tracker. Why couldn't these have been in my Sealed pool prerelease weekend?
Pack 16- Sigarda, Heron's Grace, Inquisitor's Ox. 3 foils in a row? PRAISE OX. Nah, but Sigarda's cool.
Pack 17- Game Trail. Moar land!
Pack 18- Traverse the Ulvenwald. Could be real nice in the future!
Pack 19- Triskaidekaphobia. No SOI experience is complete without one of these!
Pack 20- Deathcap Cultivator, Geier Reach Bandit Flip. Shrooms and wolves, anyone?
Pack 21- Tireless Tracker. Seriously, that's three in the SOI career.
Pack 22- Fortified Village. Land ho! (At this point I don't know what to say)
Pack 23- Odric, Lunarch Marshal. George Clooney, Keyword Marshal to the rescue!
Pack 24- Engulf the Shore, Elusive Tormentor Flip. Seriously, where were these at my prerelease pool?!
Two-thirds of the way through now! Still have a few good pulls, nothing completely amazing though. Hoping the last 12 packs will grant me one of the elusive money cards!
Pack 25- Burn from Within. Okay?
Pack 26- Invocation of Saint Traft, Hanweir Militia Captain Flip. If you think about it, these two make a cool little combo!
Pack 27- Devils' Playground. You ever danced with the devil in the pale moonlight?
Pack 28- Flameblade Angel. Ew, intro deck rare.
Pack 29- Anguished Unmaking. I have mixed feelings about the story this card tells, but straight into the Oloro EDH deck it goes!
Pack 30- Drogskol Cavalry. Intro deck rare #2!
Pack 31- Markov Dreadknight. 3 intro deck rares in 4 packs? Weeeeird.
Pack 32- Fevered Visions. Sphinx's Tutelage senses are tingling again...
Pack 33- Mindwrack Demon. Cool!
Pack 34- Declaration in Stone. Now we're talking!
Pack 35- From Under the Floorboards. I love this card so much.
Now I'm praying so hard to the MTG gods for Sorin, Solemn Visitor, Archangel Avacyn Flip, or Arlinn Kord Flip just because. Suuuper unlikely but hey, a man can dream!
Pack 36- Altered Ego, Jace's Scrutiny. Bit anticlimactic…
After opening all these cards, I found their prices on TCGPlayer and added them to get my rares and foils value. The total was $93.61; subtracting that from my $105 payment results in an $11.39 loss. And if I included the Elusive Tormentor
Flip promo, that changes it to a $98.60 total and a $6.40 loss. Then going by the earlier article's estimate for commons and uncommons (which I really don't feel like calculating for myself), that would be a $5.80 addition. So that would end up at a $0.60 loss, which is pretty much breaking even. Of course, I'm sure the prices of most the cards I pulled have changed since I calculated them on Friday. Mostly decreased, probably. The EVs and commons and uncommon value are also estimates created even before the prerelease, so those are likely somewhat off. But this was all just for the sake of asking one singular question: was it worth the money?
In terms of profit, the box was so-so; the immediate value was about the EV of a box, which is about what I paid. But I don’t expect the prices on all the cards to hold their value for too long. Other than lands and Declaration in Stone, I also didn’t pick up any of the usual chase cards, like Planeswalkers.
I didn't buy a box solely to play the trading card lottery. I had a lot of fun opening the packs, even if some of the pulls were disappointing (coughcoughCorrupted Grafstonecough). So I was excited to open my packs, no matter what was in them. I've also started to become interested in collecting entire sets recently; gives me something to do with my bulk rares, commons, and uncommons. Cracking packs is my third favorite MTG thing to do, after playing a game and drafting with friends. My roommates are also starting to get into the game as well, so I can share the cards with them. Personally, I don’t see a loss here.
I could've spent my money buying a couple Arcbound Ravagers instead of the box. A much better long-term investment for my Affinity deck. Smarter? Absolutely. But definitely not as fun, at least not until the deck is complete (which will take a while). And yeah, fun is subjective, but to me, spending lots of cash on lots of boosters is more fun than buying a couple cards. Other people can and will feel differently, but I'll crack large amounts of boosters over buying cards many times over. And that's okay; it's my money and my "bad" decisions. I'm happy with the results.
I spent $60 sharing a box with friends, opened 24 packs.
Sorin, Arlinn, Anguished Unmaking, 5 hand lands, and Mindwrack demon were the money. Life is good people.
April 14, 2016 7:14 p.m.
UpsetYoMama says... #3
Cracking boxes is always fun. And it looks like you did decently, here.
I used to buy a case with a couple of my friends and we'd all split it and get two boxes each, and then draft it. But now I just spend money on cards for EDH :P Expeditions are expensive...but it is a better long term investment.
April 14, 2016 7:30 p.m.
I have to admit, the box of SOI I opened was a little better. A Sorin, Grim Nemesis
, another Sorin, Grim Nemesis, a Jace, Unraveler of Secrets and a Startled Awake
Flip along with two of the hand lands and a handful of other decent rares were my pull from my box. But I always enjoy seeing what others pull from their box.
April 14, 2016 7:42 p.m.
Oh, and the other thing I pulled was a Westvale Abbey. So yeah, I did decent.
April 14, 2016 8:53 p.m.
A friend of mine got a box with 2 jaces, 3 anguished unmakings, a westvale abbey, and a sigarda.
I know what you feel with Corrupted Grafstone: if was my prerelease promo...
April 14, 2016 10:09 p.m.
RICKROLLED AGAIN, DAMMIT!
I never buy boxes expecting to make value. Just doesn't happen short of a miracle (says the guy who pulled 3 expeditions from 12 packs at OGW prerelease).
I have not yet bought a box of SOI, but I might. Like you, I just love opening packs. Since there are almost always new players at FNM (when I usually open boxes), there is almost always someone I can pass commons/uncommons to, and seriously the smiles on their faces are worth so much. Especially when you pass them some bulk rares too. Or some more expensive ones when you're feeling generous.
April 14, 2016 11:11 p.m.
Well, I guess you didn't have...a ghost of a chance...at pulling a planeswalker. At least you had a bit of fun though.
April 14, 2016 11:43 p.m.
TheRedMage says... #9
I have developed kind of an aversion towards opening packs. It's not even the value, it's just that a pack opened is a pack you can't draft with :)
So the bad news is that drafting has ruined opening packs for me. But the good news is that I get to save a bunch of money from buying packs (and can instead invest that money in drafting).
Still, if you do want to crack packs, cracking whole boxes is the way to go. You are pretty much guaranteed to break even-ish if you have the patience to trade the uncommons and stuff.
April 15, 2016 5:35 a.m. Edited.
I have to admit, my prerelease card wasn't too awful bad. I ended up in that pack with a prerelease Invocation of Saint Traft and then in my packs, pulled a second one. So I ended up going 
/
and did fairly well. I enjoyed myself, and picked up two cards I wanted. I really wanted them for a deck I am going to work on.
April 15, 2016 8:59 a.m.
Not to be nit-picky or anything, but between pack 35-36, you are hoping for a Sorin, Grim Nemesis not a Sorin, Solemn Visitor. :)
April 15, 2016 10 a.m.
Bought my first pack yesterday. Pulled a Silverfur Partisan. Ok, fine with me!
April 15, 2016 12:23 p.m.
fdn2: "suuuper unlikely, but a man can dream!"
Stop crushing his unlikely dreams! D':
April 15, 2016 12:41 p.m.
April 15, 2016 12:44 p.m.
AndWelcomeToTheJam says... #18
Pre-ordered a box myself, opened it with a friend. Archangel Avacyn
Flip, Jace, Unraveler of Secrets, Declaration in Stone, Relentless Dead, among other things. PRAISE THE MOON \0/
April 15, 2016 10:35 p.m.
AndWelcomeToTheJam says... #19
Also Westvale Abbey, ended up trading some value for a Westvale Abbey later :D
April 15, 2016 10:36 p.m.
McSleuthburger says... #20
I like articles like this every once in a while because at the end of the day we all play this game for fun
Looking back though I should of done an article, video or something of my fat pack i got for 20 bucks and had crap pulls until the last pack I got a Arlinn Kord Flip
April 16, 2016 10:18 a.m.
I didn't get a box, but I got 3 packs. First pack? Archangel Avacyn Flip.
April 16, 2016 9:45 p.m.
GoldGhost012 says... #22
I'm glad people seem to be liking the article! Wasn't entirely sure how much people would like it, haha. Though I have to admit that writing this made me take a hard look at my finances and exactly how often I should be cracking boxes.
Spootyone: RIP my article code dreams! Otherwise it looks great, haha. Thanks a bunch!
Unfortunately, the foil Tracker was recently traded.
Kravian: Damn, that's a nice haul! Made back what you put in and more with just those cards, I think.
UpsetYoMama: Nothing too mind-blowing, but yeah, decent. I wish I had the money to split a case like that, but I feel like that's playing the lottery at an even higher stake, haha. Expeditions and EDH staples are better in the long-term and I should probably start shifting in that direction, but... well there's an entire article on why I'm reluctant. XD
DrLitebur: "A little better" and "decent" you say? Sounds like some pretty kickass pulls. XD There are few better feelings than pulling cards you want to use in a deck too!
CheeseBro: Owch, that's a hell of a promo. :( At least your friend did pretty well!
TheHroth: I was wondering if anyone would admit they found the rickroll! XD
Wow. An expedition in a quarter of the packs you opened? You lucky dog, haha.
Sharing is caring, right? I tried to give some of my pulls to my roommates, who are just kind of starting to get into the game, but they didn't want any... not sure what that means.
Phaetion: Pun game too strong. Pun game is also very accurate. :(
First pack money. Apparently everyone needs to give me some of their luck.
TheRedMage: I probably could have drafted the box with my roommates, but since there's only 3 of us I'm not sure how that would have turned out. But drafting is definitely a fantastic way to play and I don't do it as often as I probably should.
fdn2: Oh yeah, that was definitely not a typo, I just wanted a Sorin, Solemn Visitor so much that I was hoping for a print mistake and there definitely aren't too many BW Sorins so that I get easily confused, nope.
ThoughtShift: One day...
AndWelcomeToTheJam: whistles Those are great pulls! Damn, value upon value! Apparently the reason I didn't do so well value-wise was because I didn't have a friend to open the box with me, haha.
McSleuthburger: Damn straight, if I want to crack packs for fun I will crack many packs for a ton of fun!
That'd have been a nice article for sure! Maybe next time?
Belated wall of text alert.
April 17, 2016 3:28 p.m.
UpsetYoMama says... #23
You can always get lucky. I would say that 95% of the time I am very, very unlucky when it comes to packs.
But about two years ago I bought three packs of Darksteel and pulled two AEther Vials. With my friend as my witness, the only reason I wanted Darksteel was to pull vials for my merfolk deck. So you never know :)
But 95% of the time I pull trash. I even pulled a foil Ugin's Nexus once. That one had me face-palming for about a week.
Plus there is the thrill of opening packs.
It'd be cool to see an article highlighting both best and worst pulls.
April 17, 2016 4:47 p.m.
Nevetz1911 says... #24
I bought my first box after an entire life, with my girlfriend, last week. We pulled out 2x Sorin, Grim Nemesis, 1x Archangel Avacyn Flip, 1x Arlinn Kord Flip, 1x Declaration in Stone, 1x Thing in the Ice Flip. We think it was a worth it, but not entirely sure, mostly because we play mostly Commander and apart from The Gitrog Monster and Arlinn there wasn't much valuable to play in that format. What do you think? This is a pic we sent to our friends
April 18, 2016 4:08 a.m.
DarthSpader says... #25
My box was alright. Sorin, Grim Nemesis, Thing in the Ice Flip, Declaration in Stone, Relentless Dead and two Westvale Abbey Flips.
April 18, 2016 8:37 a.m.
greenkingwashere says... #26
Pretty cool article, maybe have pictures next time so its easier to read
Also if you are willing to part with some of those foils hit me up
April 18, 2016 1:06 p.m.
Disciple_of_Mirko_Vosk says... #27
I totally agree with you, opening boosted and building decks/trading with friends after is way more fun than buying individual cards. I've opened 24 SOI boosters so far and I have Westvale Abbey Flip Thing in the Ice Flip Mindwrack Demon Olivia, Mobilized for War Geralf's Masterpiece and a Foil Port Town I made 3 SOI decks.
April 18, 2016 1:42 p.m.
Funny thing was when I opened a shadows pack, I got Briarbridge Patrol,Erdwal Illuminator, and Tamiyo's Journal all in the same pack...
Spootyone says... #1
GoldGhost012: Accordions and spoilers don't work for articles, unfortunately, so I had to take up a bit of creative freedom when editing this. Hopefully it meets your standards, and if there's something you'd like me to adjust/change/remove, let me know and I'll see what I can do.
This goes for readers as well, would you have preferred this to be edited differently? If so, how so?
Also, foil tireless tracker? You wanna make a trade, brah?
April 14, 2016 5:28 p.m.