Pattern Recognition #236 - Threat Assessment

Features Opinion Pattern Recognition

berryjon

21 April 2022

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Hello everyone! This is Pattern Recognition, TappedOut.Net's longest running article series as written by myself, berryjon. I am something of an Old Fogey who has been around the block quite a few times where Magic is concerned, as as such, I use this series to talk about the various aspects of this game, be it deck design, card construction, mechanics chat, in-universe characters and history. Or whatever happens to cross my mind this week. Please, feel free to dissent in the comments below the article, add suggestions or just plain correct me! I am a Smart Ass, so I can take it.

Threat Assessment is an art form. An art form that is well grounded in science, rationality, careful observation, and most importantly...

THROWING ALL THAT INTO THE WIND AND DOING THE DUMBEST THING IMAGINABLE

OK... let me back up here. Today's work is the result of yet another week at Commander where I'm dealing with some seriously boneheaded decisions made by the other players at the table, and I want to partly vent about it, and partly try to examine the nature of threat assessment and how people can go wrong.

Because going right should be easy. Instead, I want to focus a little on what I think are three major aspects to how Threat Assessment works, and how they can go wrong.

But first, a quick little talk about what this is. Threat Assessment is you, as a player, your ability to look at the board state and determine what is the most dangerous thing on the board or at the table, the possibility that is most likely to stop you from winning or achieving your goals. Threats come in various types, from Overt, which is to say that the Threat isn't hidden and is often pretty open about it's existence. "I have Child of Alara, go ahead at attack me", is one such threat. Or if anyone has a Phyrexian Preator not named Urabrask. It That Betrays and any Eldrazi Titan.

Overt threats are the large, big, splashy effects that have to be dealt with carefully or immediately before they wreck everything. You can't help but notice them because they have such a commanding presence.

But not all Overt threats are big. Rhystic Study and Smothering Tithe are examples of threats that aren't huge, but rather are very consistent. Tithe produces Mana in the form of Treasure, and can explode out of control in a larger game, while Study is free cards. These are more resources for the controlling player, so they are most definitely a threat, even if it doesn't seem like it.

The next type of threat is Implied. This requires reading a bit into the board state, but perhaps the most famous - or infamous - tell of an implied threat is when a player leaves themselves with open at the end of their turn. If you've played more than a single game of Magic, you know about Counterspells, and while Counterspell itself only costs , there are plenty of options that are opened up with the addition of a single additional mana of any type. This is an Implied Threat, one where you have to act as though the threat is real, and could come at any time. It's just a matter of not being noticed as you do your things.

Of course, Implied Threats can also be a Bluff, where the person has no threat, but by implying they have one, they can make the threat real enough.

The last major type of threat I want to describe is the Hidden threat. This is a Threat whose presence isn't obvious, and may not even be noticed as such until it is activated. This is often the realm of the Control deck, who has some innocuous piece on the board that does something, but they have Hidden aspects to them, or some synergy that makes this card much more dangerous. Dawn of Hope becomes more dangerous by far when Divine Visitation is in play, for example.

So how do you assess these sorts of things? Or rather, what are the more common mistakes that players make, new and old when it comes to Assessment?

Well, the first and most obvious Threat (Mis)Assessment comes from a simple lack of understanding.

This stems from a reading of the cards. Or as is more often the case, a lack of reading. It is vitally important that you read the cards on the battlefield, as knowing what they can do, or cannot do. A simple word, such as the presence or absence of a "MAY" on a card can mean the difference between defeat and surviving another turn.

I see, far too often, people playing a card, and not asking what it does, or how it's worded. It is quite alright to ask to see a card that has been played or ask for it to be read aloud, and a player that refuses to give that information is in trouble. And while no one is forced to volunteer any information - Urza knows I've kept my mouth shut on more than one occasion -, information must be provided when asked for as long as it's not secret, like the contents of your hand.

But the imporant piece of information here is that Knowledge is Power, and understanding what a card can or cannot do is vitally important to being able to assess if it is a threat or not.

And so, Anecdote Time! Because It's kinda important. At one table I sat down at, it was myself running a deck that I don't remember what it was or did. One person was running Estrid, the Masked, another was running another card I don't remember, while the last player was running Sliver Queen *oversized*.

I took one look at that Commander, recognized the player behind it and Turn 0 went "OK, that guy needs to die now."

No one believed be because I, and the Sliver Queen *oversized* player knew what that meant. The other two players never bothered to read what Slivers did as they came down, even as I was basically trying to stop him from going off all by myself.

Another time, far more recently, I found myself at a table with a Graveyard deck with Old Rutstein, my Light-Paws, Emperor's Voice deck, an Aristocrats deck with Edgar Markov at the helm, and a Kardur, Doomscourge deck that was all about causing people to swing?

I'm going to be coming back to this game, because holy shit.

So, when you're Kardur, and you're seeing those other Commanders, and you decide it's time to play Bojuka Bog, which is a very reasonable thing that I would not normally Gainsay, which deck would you think to target? Would it be the Light-Paws deck with three cards in the graveyard, two enchantments and an Instant (look, I wasn't having a good game, OK?) Would it be the Aristocrats deck? Or would it be the Graveyard deck?

Now, I know this is very difficult. Take your time.

Figured it out yet?

If you said Light-Paws, Emperor's Voice, WE HAVE A WINNER!

I actually called that player out on that decision, and his response was "Well, you might have something to pull those cards out of the graveyard."

Yes, I had Retether in my hand, and a Brilliant Restoration in the deck. I had three lands! I had to Gods Willing my own Commander to save it from Swords to Plowshares because I didn't have the mana to recast it! Meanwhile there is a deck over there that is literally powered by the Graveyard, and another that isn't as deep into it, but by Urza are they going to use it.

This is a demonstration of a complete and utter failure to read the board or the cards on it to see what was going on and what was going to happen, and just doing the stupidest decision in the moment.

Read the Cards. That's the first and most important thing to look at when you're trying to make any sort of Threat Assessment.

The Second thing you need to look at is Player Assessment.

This is... A little more problematic. Judging a threat by a Player themselves is a very risky choice, and very rarely the right one. But we, as people, tend to see other players as people, and that person is an inherent threat or not.

It is something that depends a lot on reputation and experience with a player, and can quickly fall out of objective observations and into personal opinions. I should know. So let's talk about some fairly reliable metrics. The first is confidence. A player that thinks they are in a good position will be confident, and this can be observed with easy. A person can also be over confident, which can cause them to be a larger target than they should be.

Let me put this in perspective. I've been accused of being Arrogant on occasion, and my response has been "I'm not arrogant, I'm confident. Confident people include reality. Arrogant people ignore it." IN this case, you have to remember that being arrogant can cause you to be seen as too much of a threat, even if your bark is worse than your bite, while at the same time, not being confident enough can be a problem you.

You see, there is the opposite side of this coin, where not being enough of a threat, or being perceived as not being a threat, can cause people to assess you as a high priority target because you aren't a threat. You're easy pickings.

Let me lay something out for you. EDH, which is what I'm talking about here in case you haven't noticed, is a multiplayer game. Resources used to smack down the person who is far behind are resources not being used to aim up at a player who has an advantage over other people. Be it in terms of time, or an action economy, if you think someone is weak, don't waste your time whittling them out of the game. Take them out, or ignore them and hope they can recover and help you shoot for the top.

Take for example, the same game I was griping about earlier, with myself, the Goad Deck, the Aristocrats deck, and the Graveyard deck. Kardur did his thing, and Aristocrats swung at Rutstein. OK, no comment there. He loses six creatures on the attack, so Kardur does his six to everyone, then Aristocrats, who has Blood Artist in play (By the way, I finally got my first one of those out of the Jumpstart box I got from the tournament. Woo!) now has six damage to throw around. Everyone, including Kardur, tells him the best bet is to hit Kardur because we can't hit him directly. So who does he aim the additional damage at?

Anyone want to take a wild guess?

Anyone?

If you can see a pattern here and go, "why, he hit the person in last place, berryjon", give yourself a pat on the back.

Because I was in a weak position, and he would have rather made my position worse rather than dealing what he could to the person in the lead, and not taking me out properly.

On the other hand, a player that is a known power player, such as the Spike who rolled up with the Sliver Queen deck I mentioned earlier? Me calling him out as the Threat was... well, to repeat what he told me afterwards, "You were the only person all night who actually knew what was going to happen," and it was an honest compliment. I recognized that the player was the threat in combination with the chosen Commander, and when a Spike like him gives you a nod of respect, you treasure it.

And that leads us to the last point. A threat can come from Hidden information.

If you're unsure about what I mean, consider it like this. Magic is a game of resources, and knowing what is available to players and not available to them is a huge thing. A Hidden threat is the hardest to understand, and the hardest to measure, but is also one of the easiest to explain.

Think of the worst thing that could happen to you. Can anyone at the table do it? If so, then you have to assume that it is possible. There is a hidden degree of uncertainty that comes with wondering what a player could do that makes them a threat or not in a person's eyes. I talked a bit about Implied threats earlier, and here is where is comes back. Every Threat that is Hidden is Implied. But not every Implied threat is Hidden. Implied could be an activated ability, or a known response. There is no sign of a Hidden threat until it actually exists.

And some decks, some colours are better at hiding their threats until it's too late.

I'm looking at you .

And to make things even more confusing, a threat can be Hidden by an Overt or more obvious threat. A sort of lightning rod for attention. Want an example? Recall how I talked how during the Slow Grow tournament how Miss Partners was focused on what I could do with Wyleth, and thus allowed Obuun to go off and start kicking down my door, requiring some truly epic effort to cost him as much as possible before I go down? I was the Overt threat (really, Implied), while Obuun was the Hidden. Hidden in plain sight.

Threat Assessment is part knowledge of the game, of rules, cards and interactions. It's part psychology, being able to look at your opponents and make judgment calls about what they could or might do or do not. You have to seem to be not as big a threat as you really are while at the same time try to accurately measure someone else's potential.

As for your homework, go watch one of those YouTube video series about Commander games. The Trinisphere, if they're still around. The Command Zone. Others like them. Go watch their games and when you see the game be closed out, look at how that player did it. Then, start going backwards through the game and watch how that player drew attention away from their win condition, what steps they took to protect it, and if the other players saw it coming, and how they interacted with it.

The player that keeps their Threat low, while having an actually High Threat? They win.

Thanks to i0brendan0, CannedCanOpener, Fluffy, and Zalgo from the Discord for their suggestions and discussion regarding the nature of threats.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to be crash-cracking a Ruxa, Patient Professor deck with actual creatures in it and not cheating with tokens. While I'm doing that, I would like to hear from all of you. What do you think Threat Assessment means to you, and how to you put it into practice?

Comment below!

Join me next week when I go back to making commons. I hope. That's a lot of work.

Until then please consider donating to my Pattern Recognition Patreon. Yeah, I have a job, but more income is always better. I still have plans to do a audio Pattern Recognition at some point, or perhaps a Twitch stream. And you can bribe your way to the front of the line to have your questions, comments and observations answered!