11.7% OF THE TIME, IT WORKS EVERY TIME.
Modern
SCORE: 4549 | 971 COMMENTS | 379272 VIEWS | IN 1149 FOLDERS
FangorHelmsar says... #5
Awsome deck :-D and awsome site ... support the community
May 3, 2016 2:03 p.m.
I think it actually works about 41.7% of the time. My work here: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/k4vdy17fvt
Feel free to check me, I'm not amazing at probability.
May 19, 2016 11:56 a.m.
KingTorg1 I agree with your math, but you also need to take into account the Fatal Frenzy draw. Having the Crusher in your opening hand is not a win on its own: If you draw your Frenzy too soon, or don't get lethal damage in time, you won't win.
I think that you would need to include the probabilities of having both in your opening hand, drawing your frenzy before you have crusher down, and having the combo whiff (not lethal, which should be 7 Mountains before the frenzy, minimum.) So, assuming that you have the crusher in your opening hand, the combo should work if there are 3 mountains (1 per turn of play on the draw) + 7 mountains (for lethal damage) in between your opening hand and the Frenzy. In otherwords, assuming you do not mulligan, the Frenzy needs to be in at least the 17th position from the top of the deck before drawing opening hands, assuming the crusher is in your hand. I don't have time to figure out the exact probability atm, but I think that this is needed for a more accurate measurement of chance.
May 22, 2016 1:36 p.m.
freakingShane says... #22
I don't know if I played it the right way, but it took me 17 mulligans to get Countryside Crusher. Played him turn three, milled a mountain, library had Fatal Frenzy. So he had a +1/+1 and got interrupted.
Turn four I milled 49 mountains, I believe, then played Frenzy to swing for 104 with trample. I don't know if I should mulligan to have both cards in my hand or what, because at that point the percentile would be very low, correct?
Anyway, very fun and cool turn 4 victory (if all goes well). You got a +1 from me, and if my Purphoros, Forger of Goblins deck could upvote, you would have one more! (Shameless deck advertisement...hahaha!)
Seriously though, fun deck and I would love to use this on an unsuspecting foe and make them say, "Smells like Bigfoot's dick!"
May 23, 2016 3:02 p.m.
I'm afraid that the deck doesn't work if you drew the frenzy too soon, freakingShane. You would mill your entire library and lose on the draw step. You also shouldn't have drawn the turn you played Crusher, as the trigger is on upkeep
May 23, 2016 6:53 p.m.
You're right. I did some more math, and came up with this:
https://www.desmos.com/calculator/sxciiqjs0f
(And I actually used the graphing portion this time)
mtgApprentice21 says... #2
Oh gawd! This would probably work close to 50% of the time in 100-card singleton! That's got to be the best thing I have ever seen! I laughed so hard my drink just squirted out my nose and across the room! You, good sir, have won! XD
May 1, 2016 3:55 p.m.