this is getting fun. we don't get any "free wins" but we get a lot of skill matchups, which is more fun for me.
WHY ESPER SHADOW?
or rather, why not grixis shadow? according to recent metagame data, Grixis loses to graveyard and to artifact decks (https://mtgmeta.io/metagame?f=modern). we get path, RIP and stony in our 75. in addition, lili helps a ton with control, one of our other rough matchups. i'd say this list is a tad worse to humans than the original (no TBR), but has better matchups against most other "problem" decks which I like.
WHAT WE LOSE FROM MISSING RED:
- trample. TBR is better than double cleave. significantly so. BUT in the matchups where we need TBR most, like tron, DC does an ok job. so what we're really losing is trample verses decks that run creatures.
WHAT WE GAIN WITH WHITE:
-
path to exile gives permanent answers. the best spot removal in the format, save maybe trophy. but unlike trophy, push and the rest, path EXILES. all those creatures that keep coming back? all those times you can't activate revolt for to push a threat you need to kill? forget about it with path. it's in a great spot in the meta and is one of the main reasons I went white.
-
meddling mage gives more hand disruption. with less speed comes more control, both through path and, of course, meddling mages. when combined with hand disruption, these buggers can become your opponent's worst nightmare. Don't like facing T2 Freebooter into T3 MMage? you're gonna hate facing T1 thoughtseize into T2 MMage. with lili (not white, but still an unusual card to mainboard) we have added grindiness and can grab out meddling mages and snapcasters to keep the pain a-rollin'
-
white sideboard options. YES. we get Kaya's Guile. we get RIP. we get stony. we get runed halo. questions?
WHY LILI?
or rather, why not JVP?
JVP is removal fodder most of the time and doesn't do anything when you play him. he does, however, help you sculpt a better hand with his loot, so even though you don't get anything when you play him you get two things t2. if he lives that long...
Lili doesn't die to bolt (unless you downtick), push or path, does stuff on the turn she comes into play, recurs threats not answers (tho can grab snap or MMage or even wraith in a pinch) and her uptick ACTUALLY KILLS THINGS (in certain matchups...). But as a whole I just think she represents a slower, grindier card, and that's what I was looking for for that slot - a mainboardable card to help with midrange and control in game 1 that isn't dead into other matchups.
but most importantly: Lili, to me, represents a threat since she brings back creatures. JVP represents an answer since he recurs spells. personal preference based on what threat-to-answer ratio you the pilot want and imo no wrong answer, but i believe shadow needs to have pressure to play the game properly and lili represents more pressure imo so i went with her.
IMPORTANT MATCHUPS:
TRON
-
not THAT bad, somehow
-
meddling mage puts in work in this one, as does double cleave, our pseudo TBR (no trample, tho which is why it's mostly just good into tron imo)
-
stony silences, DCleave, Kira (think karn and ulamog exile triggers, it's not great but way better than lili in the MU), and stubborn denial in for pushes, lilis, and two path
HUMANS
-
very hard/unfavorable. our worst matchup... but don't fret too much, most decks struggle to deal with humans, there's a reason they're consistently top 3 or even number 1
-
meddling mage doesnt work vs vial decks :(
-
don't have much in the board for this one, but cutting a mmage or two for something like brutality as removal seems ok to me. runed halo for mantis rider? :/ don't seem great, but wraths are very against our game plan. i think double cleave may be nice, at the least could force a block out
-
not impossible, just heavily unfavored
PHOENIX
-
medium/hard. much better after board.
-
two RIP for two Gangler, two kaya's guile, stub and veto for four wraiths, two runed halo for two bauble
CONTROL
-
medium
-
always name verdict first off MMage
-
stub, teferi, kira, in for 2 push 1 path
MIDRANGE
AFFINITY/Scales
- stony silence is our boy for this one. a runed halo or two and an EE also solid. I cut the wraiths and a bauble since i don't need the help damaging myself and stony nonbos the baubles
BURN
