Fox wins 3:2. Sending to Caley.

Added you, VRonin, to see what I'm thinking we should run.

http://tappedout.net/mtg-decks/draft-roughdraft/

Are we autodrafting the last 3 picks? I feel like that would speed up the whole process. It should be pretty obvious at this point what the "correct" picks will be.

Should be. Pick 13 has been when the autodrafting has started in the previous 2 packs.

The draft is over. Now, let's build our deck. I guess everyone who has a proposition should create a private deck and share it wkith others. We'll then vote for the version we want to use. Or does anybody know of a better way to do it?

Aren't we kind of finished? If we remove one card then add 16 lands we have a 40 card deck, right? Or go with 17 lands and just leave it like that. I mean the Chosen of Heliod is kind of a third of a landdrop since it could draw into one, traveller's amulet is half of a landdrop, so we have 17 and 3/4ths or something.

I mean the sideboard cards are in the sideboard for a reason.

Else we just vote on the card that goes into the sideboard for now.

Hm. Well I guess this could be one version of the deck. I think with the last few picks we could actually build a red/blue deck too. Don't mind me then :P

I'd actually like to playtest this stuff. Is someone on Cockatrice tonight at around 7pm (GMT+0) to test around a bit? My name on there is the same as here.

(...we would totally score a heroic trigger in autodrafting and a very relevant one for Phalanx Leader and Akroan Crusader, too).

I refuse to only have 1 version of the deck to play with.

We have like a week until we actually start playing. We'd be lazy to not have at least a deck for on the play and a deck for on the draw. I mean seriously, if you know you are going to be on the play vs on the draw you shouldn't be playing with the exact same mana base, especially when we have as much control over it as we currently have (don't have to do strange 41 card and 18 land shenanigans like in the last draft to hit certain land ratios since we have an amulet).

From there I'd more or less let Absinthman use his best judgement. We don't have to keep the same deck for game 1 for the rest of the draft. He can change cards around at will, and once we start he'll be and should be the one largely in control of how he feels the deck is best played.

That being said...let the number crunching begin!

"We don't have to keep the same deck for game 1 for the rest of the draft."
It was like that in the last DDD. Did KrazyCaley change that?

http://tappedout.net/mtg-decks/ddd-theros-schrodingers-heroes/deck-update/53667/#c1040488

Absinthman: "Caley has also decided to make one change to the rules: We are now free to modify our deck between matches."

This is what I'm looking at atm.

Haven't done a ton of math yet, but it's a baseline at what I'm looking at.

Draft Roughdraft (On the Play): http://tappedout.net/mtg-decks/draft-roughdraft-on-the-play-1/

Draft Roughdraft (On the Draw): http://tappedout.net/mtg-decks/draft-roughdraft-on-the-draw/

Going into a match game 1, you roll when you have your deck set-up, so we'd need to have a deck that would fit both play and draw. Also if we win, in theory our opponent only has to announce play or draw just before drawing cards. I guess it will be play first on 90% of the occasions but you'll never know :P

I agree that something more well rounded for game 1 would be best, but for game 2 (and game 3) you either know what you will be playing or you know with 90% certainty what you will be playing. Honestly the opponent doing something unexpected and having the wrong deck out for what he chooses isn't going to make us auto lose or something, and if you are fairly uncomfortable with taking that risk at all you could always swing towards the well rounded deck if your opponent is choosing.

Here are some basic statistics so far (The numbers will be rough since the Amulet changes the statistics a little and my "input numbers into an online calculator" skills aren't impressive enough to account for the amulet or chosen by heliod's cantrip. Also, remember that the numbers are not taking mulliganing into account so don't treat them as an exact science)

"On the Play" deck
http://tappedout.net/mtg-decks/draft-roughdraft-on-the-play-1/
Numbers are for on the play
Odds of less than 3 lands on turn 1: 29.7% (Mana Screw)
Odds of of more than 3 lands on turn 1: 38.2% (Mana Flood)
Odds of at least 4 lands by turn 4: 76.6% (4 drop on T4)
Odds of at least 1 Mountain by turn 1: 77% (Akroan Crusader on T1)
Odds of at least 1 Plains by turn 2: 74.7% (Leonin on T2)
Odds of at least 2 Mountains by turn 4: 65.9% (Borderland Minotaur on T4)
Odds of at least 2 Plains/Unknown Shores by turn 5: 63.6% (Phalanx Leader on T5)
Odds of at least 1 Island or Amulet by turn 4: 78.3% (Griptide on T4)
Odds of at least 1 Island, Amulet, or Shores by turn 5: 87.6% (Triton's Tactics on T5)
Odds of at least 1 SGR in hand by turn 6: 51.5% (SGR on T6 assuming we have the land)

"On the Draw" deck
http://tappedout.net/mtg-decks/draft-roughdraft-on-the-draw/
Numbers are for on the draw
Odds of less than 3 lands on turn 1: 23.9% (Mana Screw)
Odds of of more than 3 lands on turn 1: 46.3% (Mana Flood)
Odds of at least 4 lands by turn 4: 79.8% (4 drop on T4)
Odds of at least 1 Mountain by turn 1: 76.3% (Akroan Crusader on T1)
Odds of at least 1 Plains by turn 2: 79.3% (Leonin on T2)
Odds of at least 2 Mountains by turn 4: 63.6% (Borderland Minotaur on T4)
Odds of at least 2 Plains/Unknown Shores by turn 5: 69.4% (Phalanx Leader on T5)
Odds of at least 1 Island or Amulet by turn 4: 81.9% (Griptide on T4)
Odds of at least 1 Island, Amulet, or Shores by turn 5: 90.1% (Triton's Tactics on T5)
Odds of at least 1 SGR in hand by turn 6: 55% (SGR on T6 assuming we have the land)

If anyone has any specific numbers they want to see, feel free to ask.
(Or just use the calculator yourself here, (http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx). Population Size = Deck Size, Number of success in pop = Number of type of card in deck, Sample Size = Cards drawn, Number of success in sample = Number of type that you need.)

Also, just threw this together just to get an idea of a more R/U focused deck (and to also throw out the statistics of the 41/18 which is essentially the step between 40/17, and 40/18. It's completely valid to run 41 cards if the purpose is to adjust your mana base).

"R/U Fliers" deck
http://tappedout.net/mtg-decks/draft-roughdraft-ru-fliers/
Numbers are for on the play
Odds of less than 3 lands on turn 1: 32% (Mana Screw)
Odds of of more than 3 lands on turn 1: 35.7% (Mana Flood)
Odds of at least 4 lands by turn 4: 74% (4 drop on T4)
Odds of at least 1 Mountain and 1 Island by turn 3: 71% (Spellheart Chimera on T3)
Odds of at least 1 Plains by turn 4: 68.9% (Heliod's Emissary on T4)
Odds of at least 2 Mountains by turn 4: 64.2% (Borderland Minotaur on T4)
Odds of at least 2 Islands by turn 5: 51.9% (Prescient Chimera on T5)
Odds of at least 1 SGR in hand by turn 6: 50.4% (SGR on T6 assuming we have the land)

Not saying that we should necessarily run this deck or 41/18, but both are options.

The chances of drawing a SGR with 41/18 only drop by about 1% while your odds of Screw and Flood each swing by about 3% in a possibly favorable direction (depending on what type of deck you are running).

The deck itself though is a bit slower, less aggressive, and less about tempo, and more about stalling the game until it reaches late game where it can essentially steal the game right out from under you. Might be a valid deck to try against anyone else trying to run a strategy similar to ours. We slow our deck down by a turn to make 2 drops only relevant for 1 turn and change our 2 drops into more expensive cards. I still think the deck with the 2 drops will be better just because in draft simply curving out can win you plenty of games against decks that just throw together a bunch of strong but late game cards.

As I said I'm probably going to run a few tests tonight on cockatrice, if anyone wants to join me, feel free :)

I'll be sleeping then unfortunately D:

Here's the real question: Why the hell are we making "on the play" and "on the draw" decks? We should make one deck that we all like, and it can be modified as needed during sideboarding. There are way more variables than just "on the play" that need to be considered between games.

I'd also like to note that I'm a huge opponent of going to 41 cards to fix mana ratios. In Limited it's better to just err on the side of extra land and go 40/18 when running 3 colors. You never want to be mana screwed in Limited.

I'd actually be willing to say that our white cards are pretty lackluster overall. We've got some decent ones, but they're no bombs by any means.

There could easily be a case for us to just go U/R flyers. Perhaps splashing white for Emissary and/or Ray.

So yeah, I played a best of five and the RWu won against the RU flyers 3-0. The problem I see is that the Spellheart Chimeras don't really stop anything if you want to use them later on and we don't actually have any real buff spells except Triton Tactics and Dauntless Onslaught. So basically we're too scared to block as we might think the other guy has a combat trick in hand. Therefore a more aggressive approach is definitely better. I also recognized that SGR is not that great against bestow since the bestowed creature is still on the field afterwards.

(using the deck lists from Supersun, no game really had a mana flood or screw)

I'm also in favor of mainboarding Ray of Dissolution. It's sooo good in this format.

I agree. Ray is so good, especially against Enchantment creatures and Aqueous Form. It can almost singlehandedly save games for us and will almost never be a dead draw.

Yup. Like
'Attack with a 3/3 that's bestowed with a 2/2.'
-> 'Block with Stoneshock Giant, exile the bestowed creature.'

That's what you call a 2-for-1.