I'm 99.9% sure Caley won't answer that question.

Anyway, they might also have picked a Nessian Asp ;D

Sea God's Revenge seems good though. Other good things in this pack: Cutthroat Manouver, Wingsteed Rider, Fish Horse and the infamous Sedge Scorpion.

+1 Sea God's Revenge

Cutthroat Maneuver is too overpriced for what it does. Ive heard Marshall Sutcliffe label it nearly unplayable during one of his drafts (not that I listen to everything he says, but we'll, he's an experienced player).

I second RussischerZar on the opinion that Caley won't give us that information, but I dare raise the probability even 0.1% higher. The only thing Caley can tell us is whether there are foils in the DDD at all, which I think there are, because I remember having two guildgates in one of the DGM packs in the previous DDD.

I'd also like to raise the question of Wingsteed Rider again. Don't get me wrong, I don't want to take it over the Sea God's Revenge but I don't want to let this pack go to waste (by that I mean not having a discussion of any sort). The purpose of DDD is to get educational value, compare your opinions and ideas with other people and learn other ways of thinking and card evaluation, as has been said so many times. So if we simply say that we snatch the Revenge and then sit for the rest of the day with our arms folded, we will miss the opportunity to learn something.

So, let's say, hypothetically, that we pick the Rider. Where does it take us? Where does it put our neighbors to the left? How many good UW pick can we expect from the right?

Another topic for a discussion has already been established: What did the guys to our right take? How would they justify taking that?

He answered it for us in the last draft when we asked. I mean whether a card is holographic in our pack or not can be sorta important information, and information that you should be easily able to tell in an actual draft.

Regardless, if my calculations are correct, the odds of getting an uncommon level foil or higher in a pack is around 8.5%. High enough that it could happen, but low enough that we should also keep in mind what commons could have been picked and keep and eye out for any signals of what color they are in.

@Supersun: I guess he can tell us whether any of the cards we are looking at right now is holo. But we'd be asking whether the team to our right took a holo card. That's not answerable, I think.

The thing is with Sea God's Revenge and the pick we have we leave the direction of our deck pretty much open, although it leans towards a later-ish game deck, which would probably be better suited for UG or UB than UR or UW (although both would still be viable).

Deciding on the Wingsteed Rider will practically force us to play WU or even Wu but he's a very, very good card, and common at that.

Btw is there any known information about color distribution in a pack? Like are there usually at least 2 cards of a given color or something? That way we could speculate better on what the other team picked.

+1 Sea God's Revenge to make it official.

I don't know anything about color disctibution in the packs but I'd guess there is no such thing as fixed minimum quantity. At least in other sets, I remember opening like non-blue packs and such.

Because if there is we could actually assume the picked a Nessian Asp, as there's only one green card left in this pack.

Well, STATISTICALLY the color distribution in a pack will gravitate towards an even spread, but random is random and it is entirely possible to get a pack of entirely one color.

Keeping an eye on the spread of each pack and checking the average of each pack could give us a clue by the end of each pack of which colors were taken more often.

The best way though is to just keep an eye on any powercards that leak through far later then they should.

What information do we have here though, they passed Wingsteed Rider (a card that I would probably instantly snatch up if SGR wasn't in here), they passed SGR. So whatever they took must be better then those 2 cards (or at least around the same level).

Frankly, I can't even think of a single green card you would take over those 2 (even the asp, he's good, but not THIS level of good). Unless they cracked the pack of their life and pulled a foil Elspeth the list of cards that you could even debate taking over SGR and Wingsteed Rider are very low, ESPECIALLY on the common level. Can't think of anything White, maaaaaaybe Nimbus Naiad for blue? Lightning Strike for Red, and Grey Merchant for Black (because he's VERY overrated).

Honestly it's not a terrible assumption to think they are either black or red atm, it's certainly a higher chance then assuming that they pulled a foil Elspeth and are going some other color.

(Also, I wasn't talking about asking whether the card they pulled was foil. Only whether a card we currently have in our pack was a foil).

@Supersun: I believe you're correct. The odds of them having pulled a foil planeswalker is, in my opinion, higher than them having picked some other common card over SGR.

I'm pretty sure any foil rare, like any god or one of their weapons or a good foil uncommon would also trump SGR, it doesn't need to be a PW. :P

Sorry, the gods are also mythic, but you get the idea :)

Yeah, I totally forgot that all cards can be the foil one. What I meant was that the likelihood of them not having picked any of the, by RussicherZar, mentioned cards is slim.

Legitimate question, what UNCOMMON even beats SGR? I can't think of many. Stoneshock giant might, but what else? Maaaaaaybe Dauntless onslaught? Possibly Keepsake Gorgon? Even at the uncommon level there aren't a ton of cards that I would pick over SGR this early.

(also, just remembered Read the Bones, chalk up one more black common that might out pick SGR)

Read the Bones is good, but I'd still pick SGR over it.

Maybe Annul? Because it WILL hit something.

@GoldGhost012: While Annul is quite good in this format, it is nowhere near as good as SGR. It hits one thing and you need to wait for it with mana open, whereas SGR hits three things at once and should win you the game.

+1 obvious removal spell

I would guess they debated and ended up with Lightning Strike or Gray Merchant. If you start the black devotion plan early it can probably win you a match or two. Probably their plan.

I'd like to see some discussion for Akroan Horse. It seems weak at first glance, but the advantage it gives throughout the game is pretty staggering.

And it doesn't commit to any colors.

I think the horse can be decent in a controll-ish deck, which we really haven't decided on yet. SGR is just so much better.

Akroan Horse is okay in a control deck, but as RZ says, we haven't decided on going that route, and even then, I think I'd rather have SGR as a pseudo boardwipe.

Akroan Horse is better than the hate people give it. It keeps spawning tokens that technically don't have haste and can block the turn they come out.

If this gets passed back around to us, I might want to take it.

But for now, SGR is probably our best pick.

Startin' strong. Passing two rares in a row.

Can we keep our streak alive?

As a side note: I'm fine with being referred to as RZ, but you could also use Zar, which is even shorter to say. :)

Zar, RZ, Robocop. Got it ;-)

Russian tsar, born in Germany, who lives in Dublin. How did this happen? :-D