The probability of drawing Glimmer of Genius by turn 3 is:

3 Copies in Deck: 33%

2 Copies in Deck: 25%

So whichever one sounds better to you is what you should run. I do this kind of math for all of my decks so I can keep the probabilities high and in my favor. To do that kind of math just google "Hypergeometric Distribution Calculator" and a bunch of websites will pop up. They're all fairly self explanatory and they help make sure the deck is properly oriented. Happy to help :)

Zaueski

That's pretty cool, have those calculators worked well for you and/or are they pretty accurate? If so I might just start using them myself. I have always just been content with what Tappeout's odds. It really does help to know the chance of drawing a certain card when building a deck.

Well its all still probability, but yes it has helped me a lot with deck design. I definitely noticed an increase in how much I would win after I started building decks with those in mind.

This is definitely a well thought out control deck(my favorite type :D). I've always had second thoughts on Jace, Unraveler of Secrets because if you're somehow behind in the early turns and this ends up being your only card in your hand that's playable on turn, it sucks in that regard. Having to deal with aggro hitting your face each turn with no removal just takes no skill imo and is always frustrating for me to play aganist. But I've always wanted to put him in to make up for card draw and another ultimate which is essentially a game winner and another threat they have to deal with. What are your thoughts?

And it does suck not being able to have all the gearhulks in the deck because it sounds so cool having them out at the same time but you're right. Cataclysmic Gearhulk has a better chance of hurting us than hurting them with the field wipes and creature removal you have.

Also agree on Dovin Baan. Essentially a sleeper agent for standard that's going to replace Narset Transcendent that'll be good.

Also what are your thoughts regarding Oath of Liliana in the mainboard? I've always had ideas for this card (or even Oath of Jace but Glimmer of Genius is much better XD) in the main because its a good removal if you stay on curve with your removal spells and keep their creatures to a minimum (usually two or less) and generates zombie meat shields for your planeswalkers if you don't have removal. Plus if its late game, its a answer to a Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger after you field wipe or anything big in that regard.

MattN7498

Happy you liked the deck :)

What you said about Jace is true for any other one of my walkers, but then again if by turn 5 I had nothing to play then I deserve to lose for keeping that hand. Jokes aside, Jace is fine. While his removal isn't as good as that of Sorin or Ob Nixilis, it still gets rid of a threat and buys you a turn or two. Also, the fact that you can get him to 6 loyalty right off the bat means he can take potentially 2 swings; and if he does stick around for 2 turns, that means you didnt get slammed in the face, and more importantly you also digged anywhere between 2 to 4 cards. I think he is perfectly fine, if he doesn't work as well as I would like him to I will cut him down to just 1 copy.

Yeah I like Cataclysmic Gearhulk but he just isn't that good in this deck. He would probably be better in here if I wasnt relying so heavily on walkers for advantage and win conditions.

Indeed, I think Dovin Baan is great. I don't care how "boring" people think he is. Sometimes less flashy is better.

I am not a huge fan of the Oath cycle. The only two I like are Oath of Jace and Oath of Nissa. As you mentioned Glimmer of Genius is better, for this deck anyways. Just one more mana and it nets me more cards in the sense that I don't need to discard, and it allows me to filter the draws beforehand. That beign said, if I ever bring back Emrakul, I might bring back the Oath of Jace. As far as Oath of Liliana goes, I don't like it. As an answer to Ulamog it isn't that great because most of those ramp decks will be using mana dorks now that a good chunk of ramp spells are rotating, so they can just choose to sac one of those instead. Not to mention I have 8 possible answers to Ulamog in the main, or 9 if you count flashing in the blue bot to cast Anguished Unmaking from the grave. I also have 3 tools in the side that can deal with Ulamog. In any case, I don't think I would get a lot of zombies out of it and if I ever need an Edict effect I would rather resort to To the Slaughter as it's same cmc but at instant speed.

What about flaying tendrils ?Also in my version I am gonna drop lilli ( for money resoons) and put in one sphinx and one more dovan bann

Vampire_Lord

Flaying Tendrils is not a bad suggestion but it's way too reliant on what the meta will be like for me to want to include in the first draft of the deck. It probably might end up beign a decent SB card though.

I can understand cutting Lili if you are on a budget, and the replacements you picked aren't bad choices either.

Just made my own version please check it out Any feedback will be great!!

I see you have it in the maybe board, I would seriously consider the Revolutionary Rebuff for the main board. I know a lot of folks are arguing that artifacts are the biggest part of Kaladesh, but to be frank, I enjoy countering a turn 3 Liliana/Nissa, a turn 4 Chandra/Gideon, a turn 5 Nissa/Ob Nixilis and any other non-artifact goodies that should pop up. I would seriously consider at least 3 copies main board, maybe swap out 1 Anticipate, 1 -2 Grasp of Darkness, or 1 Transgress the Mind. Also, one more card worth considering, especial with all of those creature heavy aggro decks Authority of the Consuls. Hurts decks creating servo/thopter tokens, or other popular aggro strategies, especially since Authority can come down turn one and negate some damage. I like what you got going on here, and I wish you luck.

Is there any reason why you're running Evolving Wilds over Aether Hub? Especially with Glimmer of Genius giving you extra energy? The Hub makes 3-color decks so much faster and consistent and actually allows us to play threats on curve which is usually the biggest downside to 3 colors

TheGodofNight

Thanks for the feedback. I actually like Revolutionary Rebuff and think that it might arguably be the better counter-magic available in standard right now; which is actually pretty sad and should say how bad counter-magic is in standard right now. The reason it's in the maybe-board is because I am just not impressed with it. I want to play counter-spells in the deck but I am not certain what to remove for it. That said, no way I am removing any copies of Grasp of Darkness, unless it's post side-board against control. It hits way too many relevant targets and it does it can do so very early. I have played Seasons Past Control, Esper Dragons, and Esper Super Friends, and each of those decks ran a play-set of Grasp of Darkness. The card just performs incredibly well and is probably the best removal in standard when considering speed, cmc, and how many things it hits. THAT SAID, I can probably sideboard Harsh Scrutiny and 1 Fumigate to try out 3 copies of Revolutionary Rebuff.

I think that's a better shot than removing card advantage and very efficient removal. Reason I had Harsh Scrutiny in the main was because how aggro heavy the format will be right off the bad, but I should be able to stay alive without those two in the main. Thanks again for the suggestion, I like when people offer advice and their reasons why they made them as it helps me look into made deck, and whether or not I follow through with the suggestions given it still helps me :)

Zaueski

Because I like the art of Evolving Wilds much more tan that of Aether Hub. Jokes aside, I just forgot that card existed. Good catch, will change it out thanks!

@The_Riddlebox

Don't mistake, I certainly can appreciate the value of Grasp of Darkness. I played a psuedo mono-black control deck, and it certainly does a lot of work. That said, my very simple logic is this Grasp of Darkness can only hit creatures, while Revolutionary Rebuff can counter everything but artifacts; by that extension, it could solve more problems than Grasp of Darkness can.

However, with the impending shift of the meta and a still as of yet, undetermined standard environment, it's hard to know which elements of control will better serve you. I absolutely think you should have a playset of both, and as the meta starts to come into focus, either way, you'll have the right answer at the ready. Truthfully, I think Harsh Scrutiny is fantastic because not only does it remove all creatures from hand, but it does allow you to scry, so you get to set yourself up for success, or at least minimize dead card draws. If nothing else, it should remain in the sideboard for creature heavy decks. I personally think that it is better in the main board because aggro decks run creatures and the mirror match up runs even less creatures, but at least a one or two for the win, so it does well in 95% or more match ups.

I strongly recommend keeping the 3rd Fumigate in the main board, as it keeps the field clear, cripples aggro decks, keeps you in the game longer with the life gain, but you can probably get away with sideboarding the 3rd Transgress the Mind. While it hits cards 3 CMC and higher, it can be a dead card against several of these new budget aggro deck builds that don't play more than 4 or 6 cards with a CMC higher than 2. Given that cost is always one of the biggest determining factors for deck builders come post rotation, most folks will go for the budget builds rather than invest a couple hundred on a new standard deck. For that reason, I think the 3rd Transgress the Mind might better suit the sideboard depending on matchup.

You make an excellent point about card advantage, but since this is similar in build to traditional Esper Builds, but it might be worth it to cut down 1 Sorin, Grim Nemesis in favor of a 3rd Dovin Baan or a 3rd Jace, Unraveler of Secrets. My reasoning for this is the card advantage. Both of those walkers can help you draw extra cards at a good CMC and a good curve. Plus, if you hit both of their ultimates, you essentially lock any opponent out of the game. Well, it's just a few thoughts I've had, because I am building a similar deck. It's really a work in progress, but I hope some of my suggestions and rationale help you create an amazing deck.

I personally prefer the Esper build myself, but the more cost efficent build might actually be America/Jeskai control. At least, it's something to consider if you have the parts. Either way, best of luck with your build!

TheGodofNight

You are probably right about Harsh Scrutiny and Transgress the Mind. I am well aware that for the first couple of weeks, or at least until after the Pro Tour, that the meta will pretty much be aggro decks and a few oddball combo decks. I am just hard headed sometimes and love Transgress the Mind to bits, but I should know better and to start off the rotation it probably is better to run Harsh Scrutiny in the main and Transgress the Mind in the side, for now anyways until control and mid-range decks find their place.

That means I can bring back the third Fumigate, and the two copies of Scrutiny back in the main. I am actually wondering if I should remove the fourth Fumigate from the side, to move a copy of Anguished Unmaking to the side and open up a spot for either a third Scrutiny or a fourth Rebuff, that's something to think about.

I am hesitant in cutting down a Sorin, and I have thought about it before, because that would be cutting down one of my win conditions. It all really depends how hard I can control the board, and how well I can protect the first Sorin that hits the field. Being able to ultimately lock the field down with Jace+Dovin ults is neat, but if I don't have a win condition it doesn't really do me any good. The card advantage and pseudo removal they offer is great, or I wouldn't be running at least 2 of each in the deck, but Sorin does the same as well. If anything I am honestly thinking on cutting back a copy of Noxious Gearhulk. I might also highly consider cutting down an Anticipate, now that I think about it. I should have enough removal and disruption to buy me time to get to the mid game, at which point I should hit either Anticipate to find answers, or Glimmer of Genius to refill my hand, and even if I don't literally all of my walkers offer card advantage in one form or the other.

I agree, I love Esper, but before building this I have considered running a USA control list. They have some very nice tools, Chandra, Torch of Defiance is a good enough reason to run red; also, unlike Esper which has to play a very reactive strategy, they can also play relatively proactively as well.

You bring up some very good points and you gave me a few things to think about and I will update my deck in the next hour or so accordingly. Thanks a lot!

@The_Riddlebox

Just a quick rundown of the current number of possible win cons you are running as of me writing this (I am including anything that can win the game if left unchecked):

Liliana, the Last Hope - Her ultimate is a serious thing and does win games. In fact, I've won several games with her ability in a aggro/midrange U/B zombie shell. Unchecked, her ultimate can flood the board.

Ob Nixilis Reignited - As I mentioned, I did play a mono black control deck, and while I didn't win with his ultimate often, I did hit it often (most folks scooped after I got there because any time [me or them] a card is drawn, they are taking 2 damage). This definitely puts them on a clock, even if they are able to gain life.

Sorin, Grim Nemesis - Hit Ultimate can potentially win you a game, but like most token strategies, it is susceptible to most low damage board wipes. Still, it is a win condition, but it takes quite a long time to get there for it.

Torrential Gearhulk/Noxious Gearhulk - These guys can smash face, there is no question about that.

Ruinous Path - Awaken is a thing and it can kick ass. Personally, I like to combo this out with Shambling Vent, so that when you activate it, it is a 2/3 with 4 +1/+1 counters on it, making it a 6/7 with lifelink.

Shambling Vent - Even on it's own, it can still attack and eventually win you the game.

We won't even examine your sideboard. Realistically, you have a lot of ways to control the board, and a lot of ways to slowly chip away at your opponent's life total. Beyond that, you can wear an opponent down by playing the long game. Outside of control decks, most decks don't run 10+ turns efficiently. By turn 10, the wheels of a control deck are still turning, are still in motion, and the machine is slowly cranking on to victory.

As a side note, I would go back to the Evolving Wilds over the Aether Hub. This deck isn't producing a lot of energy, so aside from a one time color specific use from the single energy it self-generates, you are banking on the Glimmer of Genius for more energy for a specific mana color. I believe statistically, the Evolving Wilds is far more useful and will net you more productive mana gains than Aether Hub.

TheGodofNight

Thanks for taking to time to write out the comment and giving me your explanation of my wincons. I am assuming this comment was made because of the reason I gave as of why I don't want to cut a copy of Sire, correct? If that's case, I apologize and should have worded what I said differently. I know I have several wincons, the thing is Sorin can we games WHILE giving me card advantage. I am running an Esper deck right now, the predecessor to this one, and it practically plays the same as this deck would, and I don't think I ever wanted to ultimate Sorin EVEN when I had the opportunity. Being able to systematically draw cards AND cause life loss to my opponent is great; it does suck when you whiff and reveal a land, but otherwise he has won me games by just drawing me into more removal while ticking down my opponent. The best one was revealing Emrakul, the Promised End, man that was a spicy one.

Yeah, I am going back and forth between Evolving Wilds and Aether Hub since I have made the swap. On one hand Hub come into play untapped; but on the other hand, as you mentioned yourself, I don't produce enough energy to consistently mana fix. It will likely end up going back to Evolving Wilds by the time I get the cards together, but because I am a little lazy I am leaving as is right now.

In any case, I am really appreciating your feedback. You offer good insight and I love how you go into details to explain yourself.

Before you write off Aether Hub, let me make a case for why it's better:

1. Tendo Ice Bridge saw a ton of play back in its day and this is a strictly better version of it.

2. You yourself called Esper a reactive playstyle. That means you need to be able to counter-move on curve with your opponent. Evolving Wilds doesn't allow you to do that.

3. You have 6 cards in your main that don't have a type of symbol in their card. That means that even if you are completely devoid of mana, there's a 90% that when casting on curve it will not mess up your mana base at all.

4. Evolving Wilds usually requires you to run a lot more basics than you normally would run. Aether Hub allows you to play more non-basics and actually make a more solid mana base in the long run.

5. Aether Hub's fixing ability is good in decks that produce no energy, you have extra lying around, which raises that 90% to like a 91%-92% that it won't matter at all to your mana base. 90%+ is not odds that you would normally get in MTG, the on curve bonus of it being untapped makes it far better than Evolving Wilds in everything except Delirium because they want it for the card type.

Zaueski

Sir, I am not a very bright individual, I am the type of person that walks in the kitchen and forgets why he was there and walks back to his room thinking "man I could go for a snack". Okay, jokes aside, I really appreciate the breakdown. Not going to lie, reading your comment made me want to run more than just two copies; but really, thank you for the explanation. I like to think I am good at piloting a deck, but I don't particularly feel like I am that good at deck building and often miss nuances between cards that serve a similar purpose, and often pick the wrong one, so comments like yours really help. Thanks!

Yes. Been looking for a good control deck. Found this deck. +1 from me. Little questions, do you had any hard time with mana on this deck?

@Zaueski

You make some excellent points that I overlooked. In fact, you're points were so good, that I too have decided to run Aether Hub in my variant Esper Control Deck. Since I am currently only running 1 Glimmer of Genius, should I run 2-3 Aether Hubs or more? I would love to have your thoughts on this Zaueski.

@The_Riddlebox

You made a great case for running the second Sorin, Grim Nemesis that I have decided to up my count on him to 2 as well. I see the merit of your build, but would like your feedback on my own. Esper Control I know the description is lacking, but it is literally a work in progress that I just started this week. I look forward to your feedback.

NinjaGunung

I am glad you like the deck! As far as mana goes, not particularly. Every so often it will happen that you get locked out of a color for a turn or two more than you would like, but unfortunately that's the woe of running 3 colors. Aether Hub does help a lot with color fixing if you get it early on. All in all I think the mana is well situated, and aside minor adjustments I will make as the deck plays out, I am confident that standard can support three color deck without too much issue.

TheGodofNight

Sure thing, I'll take a look and see what insight I can offer as soon as I get a little more free time!

NinjaGunung

I am glad you like the deck! As far as mana goes, not particularly. Every so often it will happen that you get locked out of a color for a turn or two more than you would like, but unfortunately that's the woe of running 3 colors. Aether Hub does help a lot with color fixing if you get it early on. All in all I think the mana is well situated, and aside minor adjustments I will make as the deck plays out, I am confident that standard can support three color deck without too much issue.

TheGodofNight

Sure thing, I'll take a look and see what insight I can offer as soon as I get a little more free time!

playtested this deck agains Boros vehicles. Still win. Like this deck. For me, maybe will move out 1 jace, and slot in 1 more blue gearhulk

@TheGodofNight: That is up to you, personally I run 4 in my Mardu Control that is incapable of producing energy. That question would be better answered by if you want the draw or not.

The_Riddlebox sir, can you have a look on my BW deck? Any idea/critism on this deck will be appriciated. http://tappedout.net/mtg-decks/21-09-16-orzhov-control/

NinjaGunung

Sure thing! Soon as I get out of work ill try to take a look.