@Squirrel_of_War: You are definitely right. The odds of me combing off on turn 3 is less than ideal, and throw in some of my opponent's removal and the chances of my making it are low. This is why it is a casual deck. Like I said, I plan to make a non-budget version with ways to speed up the combo and protect my creatures. Until then, do you have any suggestions for this deck to help protect my wincon?

I was saying 9/10 times the list i made will beat this one, as its control, draw and burn not only make it more consistent, they make it able to last if you dont draw one of your combo pieces by turn 3. 44 lands is silly, rather than "Oh, i have enough mana, great!" it will be "shit, my hand is 7 lands". I know you want this to go off turn 3, but unless you get the perfect opening hand (probability of. You wont miss land drops with 22 and a decent amount of ramp. And the 1/30 is thing is based off the fact that 4/60 cards are each piece of your wincon, meaning 2/30, and 1/15. 7 cards in a hand make the odds of getting one piece of your win con in your hand 7/15 per piece, meaning that less than a quarter of the time, this deck is able to go off turn 3. If that were the case, adding more draw power, control and burn make you able to last way longer, yea you might get a faithless looting, but this deck needs way too many mulligans to go off. If you add utopia sprawls, and explores and arbor elf and other such cards (especially Abundant Growth, i cant stress how good that is for this deck), it wont matter if you miss one land drop, you will get 4 mana rather than your 3. And the other issue. This deck will never be tournament viable, but that is no reason to make you have to mulligan at least four times. Only excepting a win on turn three for this is ridiculous, even so, adding things that i have already mentioned make it more viable and able to do so. Instead of lands for filler, make use of filler with Explore type cards, that let you draw more. You will be able to go off on turn three more than with your list, and when you cant, you have a chance at playing.

For protecting your wincon, i suggest Mana Leak, and this reason is also why fling is good (for 1v1, if not that then fling is a no go), as blockers can screw this deck.

Even in casual, it cant hurt to have a better deck, playtest my list and yours against each other, without mulliganing your whole hand until you get it right, and see how draw control, ramp and burn make this deck an actual force to reckoned with.

My favorite way to protect the Wincon is Apostle's Blessing, it also can help with evasion.

@terastadon: Now I understand where the 1/30 comes from, I was doing bad math. With 3 draws, I go all the way up to about 1/4, and with a Faithless Looting I'm around 2/5. I think you are right that you will beat mine, your deck seems very effective. I do think I need more draw power, I might put in some Seek the Wilds as lord_blackfang suggested. I think with the flashback of Looting, or a Seek the Wilds on turn 3 can boost my odds massively if I can't combo off. I don't think I'd want to branch into blue just for cards like Forbidden Alchemy and Mana Leak, though I can definitely see where those would work. Thank you for being patient with me, I'm sorry I'm so stubborn. Thank you for the suggestions and help, I'll try and make use of some of them.

@Squirrel_of_War: I can see Apostle's Blessing working really well in this deck, though I'd need to have mana handy. The idea is that I'd use it to prevent my creatures from being targeted by removal, right?

Correct, maybe you can use some ramp so you can still leave an open mana on turn 3. Basically you respond to targeted removal with Apostle's Blessing and the spell fizzles. Another option is you give your creature protection and they can't block it, assuming their creatures share a color.

Ah, I see. I didn't think of the evasion purposes, In case I don't get a Messenger's Speed out by turn 4 I could use Apostle's Blessing instead, if all their creatures share a color. I'll see if I can add some. Hmm, what to take out in place of them?

based on the math i did, which admittedly may be off, you have a 0.0002% percent chance of going off T3 with this deck, not including the Faithless Lootings. just thought i would Let you know that.

Lol, I hope you're joking. Take out lands,you only need 24 max.

@Mastertoa: That does seem off. Looking at the card odds, because I have 4 of each of the 3 combo pieces, my chances of getting them in my opening hand of 7 and 3 draws is about 52%. We can sound that to 1/2. 1/2 times 1/2 times 1/2 is about 12.5%, we can round that up to about 1/7 by turn 3. That is lower than I had thought previously, but that doesn't include my chances being increased by Looting and Seek the Wilds.

@Squirrel_of_War: I was thinking I'd take out the quillspikes, they're the least important part of the combo.

ROFL!

ThoAlmighty.

However, you need two specific cards by turn two: forest and Druid. And an addition 3 specific cards by turn three: mountain, quillspike, and messengers speed. That means that out of 10 possible cards, only you need no fewer than 5 to be correct. Given the probabilities of drawing those 5 cards, and the fact that drawing a card other than those cards makes that draw effectively useless to go off turn 3 (as the combo needs each of those cards in sequence, and on time), the actual probability of going off T3 is much lower

You're first estimate states that the odds of getting all the cards in my opening hand is 1/500,000. Currently, with 22 of each land, I have about a 95% chance of getting one of each land in my opening hand. With them making up 3/4ths of my deck you hardly need to consider them in your statement. I have no idea where you're coming up with these numbers, would you please state what you use to find them, as I did? It makes it a lot easier to find the actual odds if you're supporting your number with math.

I would include Hall of the Bandit Lord and Vizier of Remedies, or take it another route and put in Hapatra, Vizier of Poisons. Hall of the Bandit Lord is not exactly budget tho...

You could swap the commander with Rhys the Redeemed to gain access to white. This would give you cards like Path to Exile, Swords to Plowshares, Mother of Runes, March of the Multitudes, Avacyn's Pilgrim, Silence, Haazda Marshal and Wirewood Symbiote. And you could still run Oviya in the deck.

@enpc: Oviya vs Rhys was the hardest decision going into this deck. In the end, I went with Oviya because I already had her as a prerelease promo, and Rhys sets forth a very different message and supports a different gameplan. I'd love to use Mikaeus, the Lunarch and Kytheon, Hero of Akros  ^Flip, but I wanted to build a 1-drop deck, not a Rhys deck. If someone else was starting from scratch I'd advise them to go with Rhys, though.

After reading your post I thought "This deck can't have this bad of a curve" but then when I finally got here my thoughts went to:

One suggestion is that in keeping with the silly nature of this deck, maybe an alternate wincon can come in the form of Helix Pinnacle? To accompany that, you could include Omnath, Locus of Mana? I know he's not a one drop, but you do technically have non-one drop creatures in the deck. What're your thoughts?

I do like the idea of Helix Pinnacle, though it might be a bit of trouble to get my hands on. The thing about my CMC >1 cards is that they have alternate casting costs or cost reductions allowing them to be played for 1 mana. Unfortunately, Omnath falls outside of that rule. He would be sweet though.

LVL_666: Honestly the curve on this deck is much better than a lot of decks I see on T/O. It's nice to not see an average CMC of ~4. This curve is much more playable.

What do you think about Wurmcalling?

Seems like a great mana sink, not sure what I'd cut though. A few of the more expensive cards I didn't have I've had proxied and maybe I could swap one out.

what about Walking Ballista? I know the cost is a bit high but it does give you the means to deal with some creatures as needed

Ballista was mostly a cost issue, though now that it's out of standard it might be worth picking one up. Thank you for reminding me!