About Urza's Saga in cEDH
Commander (EDH) forum
Posted on July 3, 2021, 9:30 p.m. by jaymc1130
When this card was spoiled I thought it looked super sweet and that it would find homes in all the eternal formats and be a dominant component in the more modern formats. Now that I've had a chance to play about 100 games combined with and against the card in cEDH settings, however, I've reached a very surprising conclusion.
This card is actually unplayable in cEDH settings. It's legitimately a net negative contribution towards expected win rate just by holding a slot in the 99 (-2.4 % in this sample size, about twice the percentage at which our group stops playing cards in this format at all). When actually played in a game (according to the data we've collected so far) that negative contribution towards win rate triples to almost -7.5%. If the expected average win rate of a deck in a vacuum assuming players and decks of equivalent capabilities is 25% for a 4 man pod, dropping down to 18% and giving up a quarter of you're expected win shares for a card you play yourself is simply awful. A 100 game sample size isn't a huge data set, but it's become a benchmark by which we evaluate things in our group.
This would have shocked me completely if I hadn't been witness to the exact reasons this card has difficulties in the format. With that experience it seems not only logical, but obvious that this card will struggle in cEDH. I'll dive into why in more detail.
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In a format where games are either insanely explosive or astonishingly grindy, Urza's Saga can't hold up either end of the bargain. A 3 turn clock for a free tutor seems solid at face value, but is way too slow for this specific format to be considered a consistent means of generating an advantage in game. Every white deck is running Aven Mindcensor , every blue/black deck is running Ashiok, Dream Render and Opposition Agent . Just resolving the tutor portion of this card successfully happened a hair shy of 1/3 of the time the tutor effect triggered in our games. This is way too slow, with way too much risk and a typically modest at best reward to be effective in the more explosive games. When it comes to grindy affairs this is a land that sacrifices itself and causes it's owner to lose the battle of attrition in a huge way (doubly so in the case of Oppo Agent hijacking the tutor) in a format where making consistent land drops every turn is often very difficult. Denying yourself resources by playing your own cards is generally a less than ideal circumstance. Urza's Saga just doesn't perform in either scenario.
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The constructs are not only meaningless in cEDH, but are a trap to even make. Spending mana on the early turns of game in cEDH on constructs is never a correct play, no matter what deck a player may be piloting. Tapping out to make some random non impactful bears and playing shields down into opponents is a fantastic way to lose a lot of games. While the constructs may be very powerful in other formats, in cEDH this aspect of Urza's Saga is quite literally worse than useless as choosing this option tends to present opposing players with very easy windows of opportunity to win games while you're tapped out and cannot represent the ability to interact with an attempted win. Those constructs certainly won't be killing any opponents very quickly any ways (outside of Urza Artificer decks) if this isn't the case.
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Urza's Saga does not produce colored mana. This might actually be the most impactful negative aspect of this card in cEDH settings, it's a bit hard to tell. Regardless, in the most competitive settings, mana base consistency and being able to cast spells and interact with opponents in the first 3 or 4 turns of the game is a critical component of consistent success in the format. Urza's Saga simply isn't going to help in this regard and makes it an unappealing choice for a land drop in the opening stages of the game (precisely when it would be most effective, timing wise, as a play to set up a tutor effect for down the road).
In hindsight it seems like these things should all have been very obvious from the jump. Still, I really wanted for this card to be good in what has become my favorite format. Sadly, from a cEDH statistical performance perspective at least, this card appears to be completely unplayable. I hope you folks have had more success than we have with the Saga, and if not, well, at least we know why.
Yeah, I also figured the prevalence of LED in cEDH and to some degree Sensei's Top as well would cause some decks and archetypes to really want this card. Turns out even in the niche scenarios where there are applications for the Saga it's not a particularly strong performer. Still, my initial impressions of this card didn't come close to how bad it's actual performance has been in that sample size of games.
July 3, 2021 10:06 p.m.
RNR_Gaming says... #4
Very much a house in modern/legacy but with 3 other opponents its probably a tad more tricky. It may be one of those cards that needs a tiny push from a new commander to really shine but only time will tell.
July 3, 2021 10:58 p.m.
Like an opposite Tergrid? Something where when you sac a thing you get it back into play for free. Might cover the battle of attrition issue well enough and could push the card past the break point for archetypes and decks geared toward grindy games. For the life of me though I can't fathom anything that might make this card effective in the more explosive game circumstances.
Never know, just have to see what WotC comes up with next.
July 3, 2021 11:07 p.m.
SynergyBuild says... #6
I've enjoyed the card quite a bit, ofc I've often used it for the creature tokens in my urza pile and the colorless is very useful there, and I can tap the tokens for mana as well.
While niche, it's probably one of the best lands if not the best land I can pull in that deck, with Ancient Tomb and Inventors' Fair being useful too, they feel less useful imo. I often pick up a Sol Ring , so on the third turn it's out I tap it in response to the ability on main phase, get the ring, and it made 3 mana that turn. In this way the card is a colorless land the first two turns, can make tokens I can tap for mana, then on turn three makes 3 mana, then on turns 4 onward it makes 2 mana in the form of the ring.
Obviously that's less mana than a tomb makes overall, and less at the start which is worse, but the no life loss and utility in tutoring other pieces like top is powerful.
A few Najeela lists were putting it in for Skullclamp too, so I'll test it there as well, but the colorless restriction I assume feels worse in that deck.
July 4, 2021 8:44 a.m.
Our Urza lists have been the only archetype tested so far where the card didn't have a net negative expected win rate contribution. In that archetype it turned out to be slightly net positive, but the sample size of games is only a dozen and it was only played in 3 of them. My guess is the Urza helmed lists are going to be the the only lists that can really make use of the card. Kinda fits thematically I guess.
We've tried Urza Saga in a number of Clamp and Top archetype shells now and it's been a net negative performer in all of them, Najeela included. It performed best in our Koll deck at a -0.6% contribution toward expected win rate. This isn't saying particularly much as Koll, despite being the most successful competitive Boros archetype we've ever come across is still solidly a tier 4ish deck that struggles to hit an expected win rate of 20%, but it was the first archetype I jammed this card into and I've been spamming the deck because I find it fun to play with Birgi and Clamp. The worst performance for Urza's Saga so far has been in our Elsha Top archetype where the card has been abysmal, but the sample size of games there is only 5 so it's liable to be a bit of a fluke.
July 4, 2021 9:17 a.m.
SynergyBuild I don't think you can use it for mana the turn you crack it. Unless it's on your upkeep
July 4, 2021 12:06 p.m.
The following is the rules text describing when a saga is sacrificed.
714.4. If the number of lore counters on a Saga permanent is greater than or equal to its final chapter number, and it isn’t the source of a chapter ability that has triggered but not yet left the stack, that Saga’s controller sacrifices it. This state-based action doesn’t use the stack.
The saga is sacrificed after the chapter leaves the stack, so you can tap it for mana after it triggers during your main phase but before it resolves.
July 4, 2021 12:52 p.m.
Ok I had the wording mixed up on sagas. I thought the last counter triggered on the draw step
July 4, 2021 1:25 p.m.
Metroid_Hybrid says... #11
The one place it may be good in is The Gitrog Monster . But I never built one, so IDK..
July 4, 2021 1:30 p.m.
It's way too slow for Gitrog. If it's not the first land you play it's essentially useless. A Gitrog deck that can't threaten a potential win with it's commander in play by turn 3 and 4 is a deck that won't be winning very many games. The archetype simply cannot grind with the best decks in the format and must position to win explosively and quickly. The fact that the card has synergy with the commander when it hits it's last chapter is simply not enough upside, it's just one extra card drawn.
July 4, 2021 1:39 p.m.
im running Galazeth Prismari . i run a lot of cast untap creatures Blistercoil Weird , Blisterspit Gremlin , Thermo-Alchemist etc. and i put in Urza's Saga thinking it would be good to fetch Paradise Mantle . so far i have found a lot of weird unexpected uses for it. example one game turn 3 i tapped it floating a colorless, sacked it for a Seat of the Synod and casted Snap . with the same method of floating a mana it can also fetch and activate Sensei's Divining Top at your upkeep. its not broken but i've never been disappointed by its resolve i mean even in worse case it can always fetch a sol ring or indestructible artifact land
July 5, 2021 5:36 p.m.
RambIe - Just a note. The artifact lands actually can't be tutored for because they don't have a mana cost. Urza's Saga specifies or , not mana value 0 or 1.
July 5, 2021 5:42 p.m. Edited.
huh, lol my bad.
edit: so i may have cheated one game with it.... but i still like its ability to fetch and activate top at upkeep that alone is a good enough reason to include it in a build
July 5, 2021 5:57 p.m. Edited.
Isn't the sample to small to be accurate ? From what I'm reading sample sizes are from 5-100 games. How many of those games did saga see play? I mean if it's not a card that someone would mulligan into or tutor for it may only see play 4 or 5 times in a sample of 100.
July 5, 2021 8:17 p.m.
seems this topic already died. you have a fair assessment, as time progresses i'm sure you will be proven correct. i am just not ready to give up on it yet. i mean if it was a spell slot i would trash the card. but as a land slot there is still hope.
July 7, 2021 8:44 a.m.
Sorry RambIe, I was busy and only just got a chance to check back in here.
I posted this after I had a sample size of 100 total games played where the pods included decks with Urza's Saga in the list. That's not enough of a sample size to account for all the particular variations of archetypes it could be run in appropriately, but it is enough of a sample size to get a general idea for how the card itself fares as a stand alone. And in that respect it's just not good at all.
I've played a couple more games with it in our Urza Artificer list and it's been at least playable in that shell (though it's terrible in Emry, that deck doesn't want to do the same things Urza does). I think the reason why mostly has to do with the fact that Urza as an archetype has a very reliable aggressive mid range threat game plan using constructs to effectively pressure life totals when the inevitable Mexican Standoff game state occurs. Having out two or three 10/10s with the potential to one shot careless opponents is actually impactful in that archetype and it's unique in this regard.
July 14, 2021 9:51 a.m.
To be fair i do agree with most of your assessment.
1st. I agree turn 1 colorless mana really sucks, even when i have enough rocks in opening hand to over come it i could have had a better play if i had access to color.
2nd I completely agree that the constructs are useless, i mean the best play i've seen with constructs was mid game with
Rite of Replication
. but if you brake that down, play a land to combo next turn, and then wait another turn to swing 6 fatty's in a deck that's designed to combo win? that's just bad timmy, bad bad timmy, like go stand in the corner timmy and think about what you just did.....
3rd i partially agree with your assessment of the tutor function. waiting 3 turns to tutor completely sucks and i believe this renders the card useless in
The Gitrog Monster
. But as for my opponents running anti tutor this land is the perfect bait. even in worse case if they nail me with an
Opposition Agent
its tutor is restricted enough that i can recover. but after it resolves i know its all clear i grab my top then can freely cast
Mystical Tutor
and use the top to combo off immediately.
i know its just not good enough that i'm wasting my time rooting for this little guy, but in my izzet deck
Urza's Saga
has consistently out performed
Strip Mine
,
Blast Zone
,
Gemstone Caverns
, &
Inventors' Fair
which were the other options i was considering for the colorless land slot.
July 14, 2021 10:32 a.m.
Gemstone Caverns is an All-Star performer. This card is so good in cEDH that it actually belongs in every deck. It's a flat out better Chrome Mox in opening hands. I'd definitely give that card some more looks. It's downside rarely ever matters, it's just 1 card in 99 so you won't be drawing it very often where it's a "dead" draw (and even then it's still a land drop so it's not as bad as drawing Rhystic Study off the top on turn 5 or 6).
July 14, 2021 11:23 a.m.
omg
Gemstone Caverns
vs
Urza's Saga
is a land mine i did not mean to step on.
my thought possess is that this is a colorless land slot, i do not tutor for or mulligan into this slot, most games this slot does not show up at all, to date i have only had 1 game with it in opening hand. in that game i was stuck with a horrible no peek hand. on turn 2 i made a construct, turn 3 i made another construct then fetched
Paradise Mantle
. so on turn 4 when my commander
Galazeth Prismari
hit the board i got +3 mana from saga which was enough for me to get back in the game.
July 14, 2021 12:41 p.m.
Yeah, the competition for colorless utility lands is fierce. Every list I play devotes 1 slot to the Caverns regardless of anything else and I like to fit in Strip Mine for every deck that can run it since Cradle and Sanctuary and so many other obnoxious lands exist. Some deck archetypes just can't manage to fit in all the utility lands they'd like.
RNR_Gaming says... #2
I always felt it was a very niche card. Getting an uncountable way of getting Lion's Eye Diamond seems really good but it does come with a steep opportunity cost. Really thought I'd make some waves but I'm not seeing it show up in any of the database lists - though the set didn't release more than a few weeks ago.
July 3, 2021 10 p.m.