Am I likely to get value back if I get an MMA box?
Economics forum
Posted on Dec. 12, 2013, 12:27 p.m. by megawurmple
Given that Christmas is fast approaching, I would quite like to get my hands on a Modern Masters box, given that I need a few of the cards and it's a load of fun to draft. Will I probably get my money's worth in terms of card values, given the amount of expensive stuff in there?
Most likely not, unless you pull a foil Tarmogoyf .
There are value cards in MMA, but you have to remember that those are RARE cards. You could open a box and not get a single Tarmogoyf , Cryptic Command , or Sword.
You'd be better off using the money to buy the actual cards you need.
December 12, 2013 12:40 p.m.
yes, you should get 250$ worth of value, even in the worst of boxes, but getting the cards you want, probably not. Just remember that.
December 12, 2013 12:41 p.m.
fluffybunnypants says... #5
Yes, you should easily get your value back from a MMA box.
Note: I did not say you're likely to pull a Bob or goyf.
December 12, 2013 12:46 p.m.
there are 53 rares with a total value of about 210... so ~4.00 each.
15 mythics at around 390 total value. 26each.
20rares x 4 = 80 .... 4mythics x 26= 104
you'll open 72 uncommons at average of 70cents = ~50
184 + 50. = cost of your box
now this is just averages and not counting foils (1per pack)
December 12, 2013 12:53 p.m.
xzavierx, simple mean calculations like that don't work with a wide distribution of values with extreme high-end outliers. The only way to make an accurate prediction of expected value is with statistical modeling.
Generally speaking, half the rares are complete busts and the other half have decent demand and value. However, unless you manage to pull at least Vendilion Clique , Dark Confidant , or Tarmogoyf , you're not going to break even. Even pulling a few other really good rares like Cryptic Command or the Swords really won't be able to balance the value lost from junk rare packs.
December 12, 2013 1:12 p.m.
notamardybum says... #8
the odds of getting more value out of MMA are higher than any other set...
December 12, 2013 1:20 p.m.
notamardybum, everyone keeps saying that, but where's the evidence? I get that the value cards are more valuable, but you're spending more money per pack AND getting less packs. On that principle alone I would call it even more of a gamble than a box of Theros or M14.
The thing to consider here is intrinsic value. I'm a Standard player, so a box of Theros holds more intrinsic value for me. Even if I don't pull money, I will still pull playables for my format of choice. TitansFTW, since you want to draft with your MMA box, it holds greater intrinsic value for you than someone just buying to crack packs. I only ever did one MMA draft but it was very fun and you don't really get to experience it often, so I would go for it. Just understand that you may lose value; of course, losing value is far outweighed by gaining fun.
December 12, 2013 1:32 p.m.
notamardybum says... #10
Jimhawk the good draws from MMA are worth more money...
That being said, I am also a standard player. I wouldn't buy an MMA box because I'm still trying to get the standard cards i need lol.
December 12, 2013 1:39 p.m.
Thing is that value in MMA isn't limited to rares or mythics, some of the uncommons have good value, like Path to Exile , Kitchen Finks and Lightning Helix to name a few. These will do a lot to push it past the cost of the box.
December 12, 2013 1:53 p.m.
That's just it, only the "good draws" are worth money. Sure, statistically, each box should have at least 1 money card, but for every Dark Confidant there will be 3 Countryside Crusher (guestimate).
December 12, 2013 1:58 p.m.
You are NOT more likely to gain value from an MMA box from other boxes.You only get 24 boosters as opposed to the normal 36. This means you have fewer chances to pull mythics. Furthermore there are plenty of rares in the pack that are just bad like Reveillark . Also many of the value cards they've bumped from rare status to mythic status (for example - Tarmogoyf ). Which means you're less likely to pull one. Furthermore there are many cards that really aren't worth a lot of money - there's a very high variance. This means you can't apply normal maths to work it out because the values aren't normally distributed (@xzavierx). In fact the value has positive skew which means you have a higher chance of pulling cards that are worth below average amounts. Mathematically wizards have been very clever actually.
We've had this exact discussion before and most people just said that it's really not worth buying a box. The shops have to price it above the average cost of each card in a booster or they'd just open all the boosters and sell all the cards separately - think about it logically. A shop wants to make the most money. If they thought they'd make more money from opening the packs and selling each card individually then they'd do that OR they raise the price of the entire pack. The latter has happened. The box costs more than the value of the cards. It's basic economics. They do the thing that makes the most financial sense to them - making the box expensive.
The further problem with this question is that yes buying Path to Exile might cost $5 from a shop but in all likelihood you'd get less than half of that if you tried to sell it - so really it's value is in trading. If you have $200 worth of cards you can't do much with the $200 worth of cards except trade (given that shops buy cards at low, low prices). It's very hard to trade like a million Path to Exile s and Kitchen Finks because whilst people may want a few - they won't want all of the ones you're likely to pull.
December 12, 2013 2:05 p.m.
wwhitegoldd says... #14
I agree with ChiefBell. Stores usually give you cash or trade for your cards, but they have to make money too, so they only give you like a third to two thirds of the price that there going to sell it at, so that means you really have get like $500 worth of cards to break even let alone gain any money. Which means you have to get foil goyfs and foil BOB so it it's most likely not profitable. however, like people said before, drafting with MMA is a lot of fun.
December 12, 2013 2:45 p.m.
I didnt say it was guaranteed, i was just saying those are the average values of the cards.
buy a box costs about $10/pack, average price of cards in a pack are around $5.50 not counting foils or mythics.
thats much better then most sets.
December 12, 2013 2:52 p.m.
The fact is the value will be there, how much of that value is actually meaningful to the op is not going to be guaranteed and probably close to nothing. I know that new players got plenty of value from boxes on the commons and uncommons, because they didn't have them and could use them, not trade them. It meant they saved some dollars in the single market and/or opened up the potential for new/other decks.
I do have one issue with ChiefBell's argument, charging market value for the box is not a 'have' but a 'want'. A store is not losing money, but profiting if selling at msrp. The only lost money is perceived value from the potential sale of the individual cards. Those that do that are just milking the customer for as much as they can. Not every store was selling it at market value, quite a few sold at msrp after release and would if able to get more from distributors. There are LGS owners who value and understand the economic status of their customers and don't price them out for their own profit.
December 12, 2013 3:07 p.m.
megawurmple says... #17
Ok, so the gist of what I'm getting so far is that there's a high chance I won't make my money back on the box, but I'll have a damn good time drafting it. Does that sound about right?
December 12, 2013 4:01 p.m.
Amazing draft set, and I personally love the gamble. And wthats what every bix is, it is possible to open a box of theros and get 36 50cent rares. And its possible to open one oack and get foil thoughtseize and elspeth. If you play modern id reccommend it but if youre strict standard youd prolly have more fun with 2 boxes of standard set
December 12, 2013 4:46 p.m.
Most of the time opening booster boxes for individual cards you want is a bit like buying the card as a single and then putting $50 down the drain.
December 12, 2013 4:48 p.m.
megawurmple says... #21
Nice. I'll try to get one anyway. Last time I drafted MMA, the box had Goyf, Vendilion Clique, foil Aether Vial, Kitchen Finks and a Sword (can't remember which one). I'll just have to pray that I'm that lucky.
December 12, 2013 4:51 p.m.
OOOH! Sick pulls! Get it for drafting yeh, great set for having fun with a few friends.
December 12, 2013 4:53 p.m.
megawurmple says... #23
Yeah, if I get either a Bob or a Goyf anywhere in the entire box, I'll be happy. Drafting it was load of fun last time.
December 12, 2013 5:03 p.m.
People are forgetting that Modern Masters is approaching out-of-print and will soon be unavailable. Not to mention, Modern season is coming up for the Pro Tour. Between these two factors, we'll probably see a price increase in MMA within the next few months. You're not going to get that kind of value from a box of RtR or Theros.
It's also an absolute blast to draft.
December 12, 2013 7:20 p.m.
I should rephrase that. MMA is out of print, but supplies haven't ran out yet. January is when packs will start to dry up. By March, you may not be able to buy MMA at all unless you go to EBay or some other online vendor and are willing to fork over $12+ per pack.
December 12, 2013 8:26 p.m.
nobu_the_bard says... #27
Heh, Modern Masters has been unobtainable in my area since about 24 hours after it was released. It was REALLY popular, and a lot of people bought them up to run drafts apparently.
December 12, 2013 10:36 p.m.
We'll see an increase in box price but it won't translate over to the individual cards......
December 13, 2013 3:58 a.m.
Three-Left-Feet says... #29
So, I wish I read all this BEFORE I got 2 boxes....
Now I'm debating whether I should even open them, or hide them under my bed for a few years and sell them factory sealed
December 13, 2013 12:17 p.m.
Maybe leave them. Old boxes with high valued cards in are worth an insane amount of money (oh hey Zendikar, and Onslaught).
I would say you have two choices - open them to draft with your friends, have a fun time and also MAYBE pull some money cards.
OR
Just leave them to see what happens in a few months / years.
I wouldn't just open them and not draft or otherwise have some fun with them.
It's worth remembering out of all of this that the price of things like Tarmogoyf and Dark Confidant won't change much so there's little inherent risk in not opening them. It's not like you're going to open it one day to find that there was a 'goyf waiting for you but the price has dropped to like $50. That's not likely.
December 13, 2013 12:26 p.m.
wwhitegoldd says... #32
Actually, it seems to me that you would get more for your money if you just got a complete set. But, that wouldn't allow you to draft, so...
Arachnarchist says... #2
I don't know for sure, but what I will say is that you are a lot more likely to get your value back with MMA than with any other set.
December 12, 2013 12:34 p.m.