Archangel Avacyn, sell/trade or keep?
Economics forum
Posted on April 11, 2016, 5:23 a.m. by Ravolt
Yesterday I pulled a Japanese Archangel Avacyn Flip (non-foil). Do you guys think I should sell/trade her now or hold onto her to see if she increases in value?
Craig Wescoe more or less made the same statement . He said that he expects her to dominate the format, and even though $30 is high for a Standard card, look at Jace, Vryn's Prodigy Flip.
My only caution on this advice is that the current $30 price tag includes the hype of a newly released set and it's the eternal format play that drives Jace, VP into near triple digits. I think new Avacyn is a monstrous gamble right now because if you unload her now it's decent value. If you wait on it and it's the wrong move you could end up losing a considerable amount.
April 11, 2016 9:28 a.m.
Not in any decks that exist yet. That's the gamble. If someone makes her work in Modern or other externals she will rocket up or stay close to where she is now depending on how many are in the deck and how popular the deck gets and what kind of results it throws up.
I personally believe $30 is a reasonable price and no one will get much more value off of her than $30.
Reasoning: WW in the casting restricts her from 3+ color decks a lot. Her trick is cool, but it will wipe your board in most cases eventually (combining her with Eerie Interlude will save this, but is that card slot worth it?). Most 5 drops in eternal do a lot more work than indestructible for a turn. I can't think of any deck that plays white 5 drops and would crippled itself after she flips. In any case you'd want to flip her for a wipe effect the deck you'd use wouldn't run many other creatures so flipping her would be hard.
Best advice I can give is give it a week and if she starts to lose value trade/sell. Dig a little more into what she can do in modern and beyond with some more players too.
April 11, 2016 9:49 a.m.
I'm selling now, but I wouldn't fault you for holding onto her for a while more. Hype during the PT is a thing.
April 11, 2016 10:42 a.m.
JWiley129 has a point. So many people expect her to dominate pro tour. That will drive price for a moment
April 11, 2016 11:49 a.m.
capriom85 - Yeah, the PT will either turn into "How do you beat Avacyn?" or "Which Avacyn deck is best?". In one case, Avacyn stays up there, but doesn't get astronomically high. In the other, she skyrockets and stays a $40+ card. There are a few things going against her.
1) She's not a 4-of. In the Top 8 of the SCG Open, only one deck that ran her had her as a 4-of. Everyone else had her as a 2-3 of. Looking at past Standard, Gideon, Ally of Zendikar was a $40 card for most of it because he was an automatic 4-of in White decks.
2) She's 5 mana. While she is the best thing to be doing at 5-mana in Standard right now, 5 is a lot. When the aggressive Humans decks can beat you down so Avacyn doesn't matter on T5, a 5 mana spell just doesn't cut mustard unless it's a wrath like Planar Outburst or a T4 wrath like Languish.
April 11, 2016 12:11 p.m.
JWiley129, you are absolutely correct. She the best thing to do in white for 5 mana, but 5 is a lot in some cases. I feel it's a by slow against the decks, like humans, you mentioned that swarm you early. You ultimately want her to flip against that matchup and t won't be easy to do without taking a lot of damage up to that point.
Also against her is her caring cost, not just the 5cmc, but WW is hard to put in as a splash, and at the 3 color decks, I don't think she is an easy cast. She needs a white she'll the effective.
I think a lot of decks are going to throw her in just to see how it works, so she will dominate pro tour on numbers alone. We are going to see Avacyn everywhere, but she may not necessarily dominate the pro tour as an all star. She might just get a participation trophy for showing up. I want her to be as good as I see her being, but I also don't want her to be so good she is out of my price range before I get the other copies I need.
April 11, 2016 12:41 p.m.
Another thing Archangel Avacyn Flip does have going for her in Archangel of Tithes. Any deck that can a conflate WWW for Tithes can play Avacyn. Here is where that matters:
Fast decks play their one drop, if you were on the play you Silkwrap on your next turn. On the draw you wait a turn then Silkwrap. You are now able to Silkwrap, Declaration in Stone, Stasis Snare, or Reflector Mage their next play. You are already hurting them on momentum and this is very consistent with all the great removal white has.
They now have at least one useless card in hand on their next turn (if you maged), and make whatever play. You follow up with Archangel of Tithes and they now must commit mana to be able to attack, but they can't attack into the big body just yet, so they play another threat. You laugh at said threat as follow up with more removal or another creature. The problem is that you took away their momentum with little to no hurt on your part. Avacyn sits in your hand until you are ready to make your move. Cast her at the end of opponent's turn and make a big swing on their next turn.
With aggro, white has a great ability to slow the initial rush, and then make them pay by stabilizing with something that stresses their mana base. They can't keep pumping it threats to overwhelm the board AND afford 1-2 mana to attack with each creature. Blocking is the least of their worries.
Only thing I can't come up with in White is good Planeswalker removal.
MTGNuclear says... #2
I'd wait for after the pro tour as I expect avacyn to completely dominate it. Then hopefully her price will rise even more and slowly decrease
April 11, 2016 6:37 a.m.