BFZ Expeditions: Variance
Economics forum
Posted on Sept. 8, 2015, 9:38 a.m. by Kravian
I'm mostly curious about how much people expect them to vary. Technically each will be equally scarce, but I'm sure there will be a range of prices (with fetches up at the top). What will that range be?
Also, will there be a "Khans Effect" on other staples from this set as people chase expeditions and open BOXES and BOXES chasing expeditions?
Epochalyptik says... #2
You should probably differentiate between scamming as in fraud and scamming as in price gouging. I see only shaky grounds for assuming that the complete set presages are fraudulent; the practice is common with every release, and the sellers who reliably fill orders from other sets deserve the expectation that they'll fill orders for these cards. As for whether they're price gouging, they likely are. But we'll only know when the market settles and we have a baseline price for comparison. And by that time it'll be too late to get them at this preorder price or to cancel preorders. That's why this service exists.
September 10, 2015 9:22 a.m.
No I mean scamming as in fraud.
The expectation of how much BFZ you'll need to open in order to actually -guarantee- a full one-of of each expedition puts you up into the range of multiple thousands of booster boxes. The idea that anybody is stupid enough to pre-sell and take money now for all the expeditions and then not come out down tens of thousands of dollars trying to fulfil it strains credulity a lot more than the idea that people will just take the money and bolt.
Assuming the rate of expeditions was actually 1 in 5 and you actually got exactly one of each with no duplication, you're looking at 125 boxes to get one of each, and 1000 boxes to get a playset of each. Since, of course, practical application of this will not result in a perfect distribution, you're looking at several thousand boxes for a full playset. Lets be generous and say it takes only 2000 boxes to get your full playset of expeditions, that's over 150,000 dollars.
September 10, 2015 11:22 a.m. Edited.
Epochalyptik says... #4
Explain to me how it is, then, that sellers use this exact model every set, and why those instances aren't suspect.
There's no requirement that sellers must independently open each copy of each card they offer. A good deal of supply sharing likely goes on between sellers in order to make set matching work.
I'm not saying fraud doesn't happen, but it seems unlikely that fraud would suddenly begin happening now.
September 10, 2015 11:40 a.m.
They sell full playsets of foil mythics? That's not been my experience at all. If they pre-sell foil mythics at all, it's a couple, because they know they might get stuck unable to fulfill the orders on release date.
Every kind of card that isn't "A foil mythic" is multiple times more common and easy to get than these cards. I would just be very careful about anybody that isn't Starcitygames or an equally large retailer pre-selling more than 1 or 2 of each expedition. The odds of fulfilling more than that profitably with what will generally be a shorted Fall Set supply made more short by the spike in demand because of expeditions, just seem like only people who didn't think it through would make that guarantee.
Even regular mythics on major sites are pre-selling like, 50 copies of each. At 1 in 8 and 15 mythics, you get 1 of a particular mythic on average around twice in a case, so 50 copies would be something around 600 boxes, compared to what is probably realistically like 2000 boxes just to get -4- of a single expedition.
September 10, 2015 11:49 a.m.
We have this thing called email. It's really good. What a shop can do is email and say 'hey you ordered this card but it's not in stock yet - we'll get back to you when it is'. This really commonly happens when you pre order foil mythics. There's no obligation to deliver the cards in a timely manner from a legal perspective. Your pre order is predicated on the understanding that they might not get stock in as quickly as they normally do.
September 10, 2015 11:51 a.m.
Named_Tawyny says... #7
It's essentially like buying futures in the stock market. The stores are offering you a card at a price - they're gambling that they'll be able to get that card for less than that price (either through opening packs, or buying from another retailer), and you're hoping that the price you've paid for the card will be lower than what it will be once the set releases.
September 10, 2015 11:58 a.m.
I don't know why "Be careful, because the odds are so long for this, that I think there will be scammers and also people who don't realise what they're committing to" is being treated like I'm stating that all possible sources of pre-ordered expedition lands are fraudulent.
September 10, 2015 noon
Because you didn't narrow it down. You said 'anybody'. Well that includes like major, reputable shops. So you essentially said that SCG is scamming you......
September 10, 2015 12:03 p.m.
If SCG were selling me, as a single lot, a full playset of Expeditions, I might not think they were scamming me, but I wouldn't expect to see that shipping out on release day.
I also said "almost certainly" not "definitely" :P
September 10, 2015 1:13 p.m. Edited.
SCG is always scamming us. Just look at the stupid buyouts they do and the ridiculous control they implement over booths at their events...
September 10, 2015 2:46 p.m.
Epochalyptik says... #13
"Almost certainly" is almost as useless as "definitely" when it comes to generalizations substantiated only by one or two numbers. Hedging doesn't relieve you of responsibility for your argument.
September 10, 2015 2:54 p.m.
Welp, looks like I was right... Expeditions have plummeted from prerelease values and are as common as I predicted. Lol
Devonin says... #1
Even if "slightly more common than a foil mythic" was 1 in 5 boxes from 1 in 6 boxes, to have a statistical guarantee of getting a particular expedition, you're looking at a commitment to 125 booster boxes.
One thing is for sure, given what the prices will probably be (and probably max out at 300-400 for say, Tarns) buying product for expeditions is a horrible idea financially, and instead you're better off buying around/slightly more than you normally do and hoping you get lucky.
Also, anybody pre-selling complete sets is almost certainly scamming you.
September 10, 2015 8:56 a.m.