Buyouts, and the future of the modern format.
Economics forum
Posted on June 9, 2015, 11:08 a.m. by Didgeridooda
What are your thoughts on how buyouts influence the game side of modern?
Are shocks set up for the next big buyout? They are heavily used, and sitting around the prices where buyout cards have been happening.
If that were to happen, what would that do to modern?
I hope this does not happen, recent threads made me think of it though. I hope it does not happen, I still really need Jund shocks for my next EDH project.
Didgeridooda says... #3
I have been trying to trade for them. The budgets I give myself for new decks are between 10, and 20 dollars. Since I have a really tight budget, I hope to find trades, and I also hope prices don't spike. I am also building my first modern deck. Luckly I only need one more shock for the modern deck.
June 9, 2015 11:27 a.m.
mathimus55 says... #4
The thing with modern is that it's a format of staples, once you get your land base(shocks, fetches, fast lands and whatnot) and the staples that cross over archetypes the format is not that expensive. It takes some patience to acquire but I would rather spend $100 bucks in modern cards that I maybe spend $20 each year to get any hot new tech than $100 bucks on standard then $100 next year and so on
June 9, 2015 11:34 a.m.
WovenNebula says... #5
The buy outs in the last year or few are quite frustrating as the frequency increases and only means more to come. Potentially it could kill modern. On one side people buying out stocks to flip to make a profit, on the other hand wizards could up tick reprints more. This could increase values out of the scope of players or crash the market, creating so much artificial inflation like the housing bubble. I'd rather the frequency was taken down a peg, so that cards that deserve to rise, get just that....
June 9, 2015 11:48 a.m.
Didgeridooda says... #6
I was just thinking that since the frequency seems to be increasing, something as large as shocks could be in the cross-hairs.
June 9, 2015 11:56 a.m.
if you goal is too builld towards a modern deck, find a deck you want to play and work towards that, lets say its abzan
in edh mana bases are much important, duals and shocks and 10 fetches arnt required to be good, so replace shocks lands with temples, refuges, guild gates, tri lands, vivid lands, etc and move them into shocks you need such as temple garden/overgrown tomb.
well you also need collected company and windswept heath, and anafenze, from 3 different standard sets, if you win an FNM and can get store credit, this lets you pick up the cards you need, however like a couple stores by me you only get packs. save them. offer them as trade to other players who love cracking packs for $3-4 each in trade, this lets players who like yourself might be on a tight budget, get better trade value than trading there $10-15 cards into the store for 2 packs, or too more invested players who like to gamble. worst cast only get khans and dragons and open them, trying to pull fetch lands and colleted company, or good trade bait.
when you open things like a flooded strand, dont trade it away for collected companies and anafenzas, it has eternal value and can be more easily traded for things like abrupt decays, kitchen finks, path to exile, or down to a windswept heath plus value. now when trying to trade for cards like thoughtseize, its still in standard so if you find standard only players it will be easier to pick up from them as when it rotates they no longer want or need it, versus players who will hold for modern/legacy themselves.
anafenza and melira - if you have small budget these cards can be had for $1.50 or less, these are the cards that you should try to have thrown into a trade or just buy as sometimes players wont even carry these cards around
for any deck youre on a budget but would one day like to own, dont do something like build budget ur delver if your goal is jund, you spend too much time and money on cards that dont transition over
June 9, 2015 12:02 p.m.
mathimus55 says... #8
I agree, the buyouts are becoming ridiculous at this point. People come in with an attitude that they can make some money if they throw some collateral at cards x, y, and z and creates all the artificial demand. It doesn't do anyone favors bc they "invested" money to create a price that isn't sustainable and after their sellers fees etc they often make a marginal amount especially compared to the time that was put into the whole process. Like vishnarg said in another thread: why invest in magic when you can make real investments and get real dividends?
June 9, 2015 12:04 p.m.
mathimus55 says... #9
Also tagging goldenfoot so he can hear someone besides me explain how to build modern on a budget. mckin that was well said, something I've been trying to get my local group to understand for a while
June 9, 2015 12:12 p.m.
Wow I'm getting mentions for comments I haven't even made in the thread I'm mentioned in. Nice
June 9, 2015 12:16 p.m.
Didgeridooda says... #11
Thank you mckin for that, but it is not a question of how to acquire what I need, or how to build. I am pretty good at those things.
I just want to start a dialogue about the possibility of a shock land buyout, and what it would do to the formats, modern in particular. I was just outlining the reason I am a little worried about a price spike.
Is the culture now to binge on the success of each card. Will that accelerate reprints, or just kill supply? Do people get turned off of tournaments, and FNM's?
June 9, 2015 12:16 p.m.
Buyouts tend to happen when the supply is really low and it takes a relatively small amount of cash to cause a large value swing. This is where being a recent set, and one that was sold on the backs of the shock lands helps out. There are a metric shed load of shocklands in the wild, and while it may seem like they are hard~ish to find, this is more due to the lack of price movement in the past two years. People picked up shocks like they were going out of style because they are a "sure" financial bet. Now since there are so many shocks the price hasn't really moved so all those people who bought them at $7-$10 are unwilling to sell them until they see $15-$20 prices.
June 9, 2015 12:36 p.m.
mathimus55 says... #13
Shocks haven't been rising much/at all like everyone assumed they would. There are SO many floating around it would be incredibly hard to buy them out, especially since so many aren't for sale and just sitting in binders already waiting for the proverbial spike. There was an article on Mtgprice not too long ago(2 months max) saying how people are hoarding the shocks so much that there really isn't any need for them except a select few. They really aren't the holy grail of investments that everyone thought they'd be. I'd be..."shocked"...if someone bought them out
June 9, 2015 12:39 p.m.
Didgeridooda says... #14
Do you think you could link that article? That sounds interesting.
June 9, 2015 12:41 p.m.
mathimus55 says... #15
I'll have to do some digging, but in general reading the articles at Mtgprice are a good way to get a general idea on how to at least trade better and know what to look for when on a budget mind. If I do find it I'll for sure send it your way.
June 9, 2015 12:50 p.m.
mathimus55 says... #16
Ha, right after I posted...
FOUND IT!
It's a great article in General. Derek Madlem is probably one of my favorite mtg writers in general regardless of focus.
June 9, 2015 12:53 p.m.
Didgeridooda says... #18
Do you think the buyouts on the non shock cards are going to have a negative effect on the formats?
June 9, 2015 1:37 p.m.
mathimus55 says... #19
It's going to make certain cards harder to acquire like Oblivion Stone and Creeping Tar Pit since they are going up in price but overall if cards are reprinted and new cards are introduced(which means they'll be easy to acquire) its shouldn't be too bad. It's more frustrating but being priced out of one card won't keep you from playing a deck, especially with as little play as o-stone gets. Perilous Vault is a good sub in tron decks for example. It will force some people to play different decks but I don't think it will keep people out of the format.
June 9, 2015 2 p.m.
There isn't really a true sub for O Stone in Tron decks. If you want to play Tron you'll have to buy in on all the $40-$50 big drops on that deck now.
June 9, 2015 2:08 p.m.
GeminiSpartanX says... #21
I think it will dissuade some from entering into Modern specifically. Recent Modern interest due to the MM15 set primed investors to make easy profits buying up all the cards that weren't reprinted. In my case, I wanted to expand my Modern collection and buy the remainder of the cards needed for Infect. But lo and behold, Inkmoth Nexus spikes to double in price compared to what it was before. I understand exactly why it happened, but it turns me off from using those decks now since the general affordability seems to stay the same since when some staples are reprinted, the others just increase in price. It's somewhat frustrating but understandable, considering that if you're the type of player to hold on to your cards even when you switch decks in Modern you have another deck half built already for the next time.
mckin says... #2
spent that $18 and get your 3 shocks for edh? blood crypt is one of the cheapest shocklands while overgrown tomb and stomping ground are not the most expensive
the biggest ones youll see rise are steam vents, breeding pool, abzan shocks, and then watery grave/hallowed fountain, although watery grave has a lot of room to move up
June 9, 2015 11:21 a.m.