Chance for Thing in the Ice Flip to go up?
Economics forum
Posted on April 3, 2016, 10:43 a.m. by GearNoir
Any speculation on if Thing in the Ice Flip will go up or not?
I'm thinking with the right U/B Control shell it could be vicious (I.e. - Thing in the Ice + Vampire Hexmage ).
Purplemandown says... #3
Around here, it's seeing some people testing it in Legacy Delver lists. I don't know that it'll take off, and even if it does, I don't know that it'll be enough to make it expensive.
April 3, 2016 11:12 a.m.
Lots of testing in Modern tempo shells. Seems decent but not amazing.
April 3, 2016 11:44 a.m.
ducttapedeckbox says... #5
It's also worth noting that it is only a rare in what might be the most heavily opened set in Magic history.
April 3, 2016 11:46 a.m.
MrDilliams says... #6
I wouldn't say never, but neither side has much protection. Awoken Horror's ability is close, but a Path to Exile feels bad, so does a Terminate, or a Cryptic Command to just bounce after transforming. And that is just modern. If anything I can see it in standard where only some decks can answer it reliably.
I personally am going to try to ditch my copy for some World Breakers.
April 3, 2016 11:53 a.m.
KillDatBUG says... #7
I think it comes down to whether or not the ability for Awoken Horror Flip is good. I wouldn't be surprised if a 7/8 that took a few turns to become a 7/8 wouldn't see any play in Modern, because we already have very large creatures like Tarmogoyf and Knight of the Reliquary that are more efficient in that regard.
April 3, 2016 12:27 p.m. Edited.
Will it spike any further soon? No. Thought-Knot Seer was a rare and a centerpiece of a deck that broke modern and it's less expensive.
April 3, 2016 1:01 p.m.
TiTi is more than a 7/8; it's basically a board-wipe on both sides. In modern, it will basically bounce everything except itself and Spellskites. I see TiTi as a different version of Ludevic's Test Subject Flip. One with worse late-game potential, to boot. Test subject is an awesome card, but not exactly a heavily played one.
April 3, 2016 1:09 p.m.
ducttapedeckbox says... #10
The only similarity between TitI and Ludevic's Test Subject Flip is that they both start as a blocker and hit like a truck once they flip.
TitI is much better in most instances because instead of dumping the mana into removing counters (which can be put to waste once the LTS gets Bolted), you're Mana Leaking or Remanding or Lightning Bolting with added value. The only mana investment required is the 
to cast. Once it flips, you don't have to worry about the board too much either. The only difference is that LTS has more of a body, but who cares in Modern when you're talking an evasion-less 7/8 versus 13/13?
April 3, 2016 1:20 p.m.
@ducttapedeckbox: Yes and no. While I do think TiTi is better on the whole, that's not the whole story. Test subject doesn't require more cards to activate, let alone cards of specific types, and if you're already sitting on untapped mana through your opponent's end phase, it's already wasted. The test subject is basically a recycler, turning a wasted resource into a late-game threat.
The big difference is this scenario: you go to put the last counter on the test subject and in response your opponent bolts it. Effectively, you've spent a 2-drop and some excess mana to pull a removal card out of their hand. Ideal? No, but this isn't a terrible trade for either player.
Of course, for bolt-proof TiTi, this isn't even a threat.
April 3, 2016 2:29 p.m.
ducttapedeckbox says... #12
@ Egann - While it is true that LTS does not require cards to activate, the decks that would run either would be playing spells every turn anyways. There may be a few situations in which you don't have that last spell to flip TitI, but if you don't have Mana Leaks / Remands etc., then you're probably in a bad place regardless.
Note that I am assuming that TitI would be played in a blue control-based deck running lots of counters and instant-speed removal. My idealization of a TitI line of play (if I were to test it in Blue Moon or something) is
- T1 Serum Visions
- T2 TitI
- T3 Blood Moon or counters or removal
- T4 Blood Moon or counters or removal
- T5 Likely TitI flip
In this type of deck, if you're not casting spells your opponent probably isn't either in fear of you countering and ticking up TitI.
LTS would be a better late-game draw if you start running out of steam, but I can't see any situation where I would actually want LTS over TitI (I am not convinced that I want either).
I may be overgeneralizing this with how I would see myself playing with TitI, but I don't see the need for spells as a disadvantage.
April 3, 2016 3:05 p.m. Edited.
Thanks for the speculation. I was mostly asking to see if when a trade for Westvale Abbey Flip would be legit more or less.
I tried at the prerelease yesterday and was openly scoffed at by the more vocal crowd, they didn't even bother asking if I would add. Hope the price points meet soon!
April 3, 2016 3:44 p.m.
Westvale Abbey will probably see some standard play and little elsewhere. TiTI will likely see a of play in other formats and some in standard. TiTI will probably have more long-term value.
ducttapedeckbox says... #2
This was discussed extensively (I can't remember in which thread). The biggest problem with TitI is that it's a pretty bad late-game draw in Modern Unless you see it in your opening hand, it's not an ideal draw.
I don't think that it needs Vampire Hexmage if it is going to work - you still need to cast an instant or sorcery to get it to flip. The counters tick down just as you play the game, so I think it will be tested to some extent. Whether or not it will see play, I'm not sure. We can obviously expect a price hike if it does see eternal play.
If some form of draw-go control deck was to reemerge in Modern, it needs something new and powerful. TitI could be used once that happens, but I don't think it's what the deck needs to come back.
April 3, 2016 10:51 a.m.