Day Traders: The official buyout and price spike thread
Economics forum
Posted on Jan. 7, 2016, 9:14 p.m. by Epochalyptik
This will be the official thread for discussing buyouts, price spikes, price drops, and other sudden market changes.
Feel free to subscribe if you want to stay up to date on changes in the secondary market!
Rules:
- This thread is for alerts and minor discussion about buyouts, price spikes, and price drops. Please do not use this thread for speculation.
- When posting about a price change or buyout speculation, please list data or other evidence.
- Please keep banter to a minimum. The main purpose of this thread is to notify others about price changes; that's harder to do if everyone's discussing some particular deck or how badly they need card X.
Resources:
- MTGStocks.com (Provides stock-like information on card prices.)
- TCGplayer.com (Provides aggregated card values and a price graph.)
- EchoMTG (Provides stock-like information on card prices.)
GeminiSpartanX says... #2
I wouldn't necessarily say investing in MtG is low-risk....
The card economy bubble can pop just like any other bubble. Plus there are plenty of other collectables that are lesser-risk than MtG: coins, stamps, historical relics, gold/silver, etc.
Tax lesson incoming.....
So here's some interesting facts for those of us in the USA. If you sell a collectable at a profit, you are technically required to pay capital gains tax since the IRS considers it income. If you flip collectables before holding them for a year, you'll pay a higher rate (35% or so) as opposed to holding the collectables for longer than a year which means you're taxed at the long-term collectable capital gains rate of 28%.
I then searched what defines a 'collectable', and I got conflicting results as to whether trading cards count in the eyes of the IRS. One site that deals in sports cards (the article is somewhat dated though), claimed that you do need to report profit from the sale of collectible cards as income, which means it would be subject to collectable capital gains tax. He might have been speaking from a business operating standpoint.
Two different sites (and this one) listed things that the IRS considers collectables, but trading cards weren't specifically listed.
What really matters though, is the integrity of the people selling the collectables in reporting any profits to the IRS. There was an interesting article on reporting 'hobby income' in regards to selling things (in this example on ebay) that essentially says you should report it, but unless you are audited there isn't much chance the IRS will catch it.
The IRS sites themselves aren't very informative (no surprise there), but here are the 2 pages that came up on my search: Tax Topic 409, and Tips for Online Auctions.
It does seem like you need to pay capital gains tax on the sale of MtG cards as 'hobby income' if you don't do it as a business according to my accountant wife, although whether these investors will actually report it or not remains to be seen. Also, the IRS may classify your operation as a business if your intent is to sell the cards at a profit (see the 2nd paragraph in the 'tax tips' link). If these speculators ever get audited (say, if someone reports them), they'll need to have kept good records otherwise they'll pay a fine for unrecorded profit/tax evasion.
July 14, 2016 11:09 a.m. Edited.
GeminiSpartanX says... #4
Is Intuition on the RL? It doesn't seem like a buyout, but the price seems to be spiking rather quickly. TCGplayer
July 15, 2016 8:53 a.m.
ThisIsBullshit says... #5
It is not, it's from Tempest. I think its price spike is due to it being a good card that hasn't been reprinted that's played over several formats.
July 15, 2016 9:30 a.m.
GeminiSpartanX says... #6
Looks like it is on the RL, as are a few other cards from Tempest (Cursed Scroll, Aluren, and Humility are some others that see play). There is a judge foil of it, but I guess that was when they tried getting around the RL back in the day by printing a few premium foils (like Mox Diamond).
July 15, 2016 9:52 a.m.
PistonGolem says... #7
I think someone bought out Back to Basics. Correct me if I am wrong, but there are only 9 copies on TCGplayer
July 16, 2016 5:46 p.m.
ThisIsBullshit says... #8
Well damn, GeminiSpartanX, you're right. I didn't think anything from Tempest was on the reserved list but I'm wrong lol
PistonGolem yeah it's tripled in price from $8 to $24 for NM copies on TCG
July 16, 2016 6:56 p.m.
PistonGolem It's used in Mono U Control in Legacy. Could be a buy out though...glad I got mine last month!
July 16, 2016 10:13 p.m.
jethstriker says... #10
Mercadian Masques is the cut off for the reserved list. Anything onwards, including masques, has no reserved list cards on it.
July 16, 2016 11:02 p.m.
PistonGolem says... #11
Tfw buyout happens right when my friend buys Posts. Rip that then...
July 16, 2016 11:35 p.m.
DrFunk27 I don't know what mono blue control is in legacy, but it's definitely used in a lot of Miracles lists. Miracles tends to only run 2-3 duals and like 6-8 basics.
July 17, 2016 12:06 a.m.
kyuuri117 MUC has been around in legacy as a tier 1.5/2.0 deck for awhile. It's pretty budget but can still play alright. I built it a few months back and I top 3 pretty frequently at our LGS. It runs 2-3 back to basics. I have my deck on my profile.
July 17, 2016 1:44 a.m.
DivineGrace says... #14
Yavimaya Hollow seems to be on the verge of being bought out. No copies left in Channel Fireball, and only 4 copies listed thus far in tcgplayer...
Why is it even used? I don't think it is used in Legacy...
July 17, 2016 2:13 a.m.
DivineGrace Commander staple. It's also on the RL. Every RL list card is a spec for buy out.
July 17, 2016 2:16 a.m. Edited.
fluffybunnypants says... #16
DrFunk27 says...
"kyuuri117 MUC has been around in legacy as a tier 1.5/2.0 deck for awhile. It's pretty budget but can still play alright. I built it a few months back and I top 3 pretty frequently at our LGS. It runs 2-3 back to basics. I have my deck on my profile."
I looked because I was morbidly curious. Pretty sure you meant Mono U Delver, but that's not what I would refer to as budget. Definitely not the reason the price rose either, aside from seeing play in Miracles, it looks like market manipulation.
July 17, 2016 9:50 p.m.
fluffybunnypants You looked? Because this is the first thing that came up. The newer variations of the deck plays Delver. The most recent lists, which was featured here by Henry Romero, and debuted in 2014, played 2 Back to Basics. I've seen this list a few times in local scenes, and I'm playing it here myself.
Here is the MTGsalvation forum that talks about it in legacy.
I'm not saying it's the reason it spiked, it was likely just bought out, but it's a staple in the deck that wants to abuse it. It's blues version of a Choke/Blood Moon hybrid in legacy. With EMA allowing people to get into legacy a little easier, I'm sure this was one of the cards that was looked at for people who are on budget and want to use their newly acquired Force of Will.
July 17, 2016 10 p.m. Edited.
fluffybunnypants says... #18
I'm sorry, was there a point I missed somewhere in there?
July 17, 2016 10:05 p.m.
fluffybunnypants You said MUC is definitely not the reason the price rose, but you have no facts to conclude that. The card does see play and has one print run. Perhaps Miracles play also lends a hand to it's price increase. Also, found on Reddit it was not a buyout but rather people purchasing the card because it was still cheap and is played. That's the point. ;)
July 17, 2016 10:55 p.m.
fluffybunnypants says... #20
Still makes no sense. MUC is not the reason it rose. Generally speaking, in order for a deck to raise a card price it actually needs to account for a percentage of the current meta (it's dpesn't). The card price spike indicates more than what you have implied. When a card price rapidly rises it means a significant portion of them were removed from the market all around the same time, whether or not someone bought all the copies is up for discussion, but the market behavior of this particular card indicates that it was caused by market stress in some way, shape or form.
July 19, 2016 9:31 a.m.
fluffybunnypants It was seen on camera a couple weeks ago as an answer to Eldrazi Shop in Legacy. Seems like that could have caused a buyout. It's being played more though. I think this is just general demand. There were not a ton of copies on TCG to begin with.
July 19, 2016 11:10 a.m.
Also, it seems Yavimaya Hollow was bought out today. I was purchasing one for my cube, and it kept getting declined. I was unsure what was happening until I went back to the store page and there were 2 left. They are back to 19 copies but they are $15+ for LP and NM. I got mine for $8 this morning.
July 19, 2016 2:21 p.m.
Mishra's Bauble has doubled this week. Currently sitting at $20.
July 19, 2016 6:36 p.m.
Time Spiral has started to see a rise. It's gained $10 in the last week. I would pick it up if you need it. It's an easy RL buyout target.
July 30, 2016 11:51 a.m.
I'm thinking about staging a buyout of some playable reserve list card that is like 0.50 USD or less.
Can anyone think of anything playable and good before I drop $20-100 on this buyout?
August 1, 2016 3:14 a.m.
Dorotheus No. That's not what this thread is for.
Don't be a douche. Buyouts are meaningless unless you drop $1,000+ on a card. You won't move any RL card that is currently $0.50 because there is no demand or use for that card.
August 1, 2016 10:39 a.m.
Not forgetting to mention that it will be unfair on other players.
August 1, 2016 10:45 a.m.
If I were to buy out a RL card, my targets right now would be
and maybe Time Spiral, but that's already spiked to $25, so that would be a pricey buy out.
August 1, 2016 10:57 a.m.
Someone bought out Lure of Prey LMAO Hahaha, what an idiot. Do these people not understand the card is worthless? They can't sell them to anyone because there is no demand for it. People just wasting money now. I love it!
August 1, 2016 7:53 p.m.
Lure of Prey looks fun, i would pay more than 0.70 for it ;)
August 1, 2016 8:36 p.m.
iBleedPunk says... #33
Lure of Prey into Vorinclex, Voice of Hunger for 
is always a fun time
August 1, 2016 8:49 p.m.
I don't know. The card looks fun. Too bad Chord of Calling is strictly better. Same with Worldly Tutor.
August 1, 2016 10:15 p.m.
I remember cheating a Progenitus into play when it was just released with that card. Good times.
August 1, 2016 11:22 p.m.
Just as I was trying to purchase some Mishra's Baubles yesterday for 15$ they all disappeared and are now in the 20s. Almost bought a playset for 50 even though I only wanted 2 like an hour before they were all gone, damn it.
August 4, 2016 8:45 a.m.
I just found a site with some left for 17$, free shipping on orders over 25$ I think. I bought 4, says they still have 6 left if anyone's interested! Mishra's Baubles
August 4, 2016 10:04 a.m.
Why is Mishra's Bauble so much. Other than the buyout. What is it used in?
August 4, 2016 10:46 a.m.
Temur delver with delirium is gaining popularity a little bit... Probably some other modern delirium decks brewing. Not 100% sure, they were the last 2 cards I needed and of course as soon as I decided to buy them they got bought out, but at least I managed to snag a few. Wow, just checked again and they are 40+ for lightly played, sheesh.
August 4, 2016 11:06 a.m.
NecroPony It's because of Death's Shadow Zoo. It will also likely be used in delirium decks, but Shadow is the main reason. It's also severely underprinted for a common.
August 4, 2016 12:08 p.m.
PistonGolem says... #42
Hey guys, Emrakul, the Promised End spiked to 30$. 10 dollar mythic spiking? This sounds familiar...
August 5, 2016 12:09 p.m.
The listed Median may be $40.00 but the market price is $20.00...
With that said if the market price starts creeping up towards $40.00 instead of the Median falling then definitely sell all your baubles!
August 5, 2016 12:16 p.m.
Other notable spikes are Liliana the Last Hope over $50+ and being sold for $100 on the PT floor. Traverse the Ulvenwald is spiking and was on camera a ton. Commentators likened it to Green Sun's Zenith which is causing people to buy them up. Oath of Nissa on screen, etc. Looks like GB Delirium is gonna be a lot of the next standard meta.
August 5, 2016 4:31 p.m.
Well, I guess Liliana was the "Last Hope" for standard after all.
Alright, I'm outta here. Bye. :P
Sorry, I couldn't resist.
August 5, 2016 6:40 p.m. Edited.
iBleedPunk says... #46
DrFunk27 how hard is Traverse the Ulvenwald spiking???
August 5, 2016 6:49 p.m.
Faceless_Being It's doubled in price so far. I think it could see $5 easy. It's a 4 of in every deck that's playing it.
August 5, 2016 7:16 p.m.
Greater Gargadon is really headed up based on MTGStocks.
August 15, 2016 4:59 p.m.
Traverse the Ulvenwald threatening Kiki-jiki and other potential creature win-cons might be something worth it's salt. $5 very very easy, I'd say a settling price of $7 before eventually going to like $15 (but that's like much later).
Bridge from Below also spiked (and climbing).
fluffybunnypants says... #1
ThisIsBullshit says...
"Why does he want to buy into Magic cards, of all things?"
So, someone like Martin Shkreli has a lot of money that he gets taxed on (he owes the IRS something like 5 mil as of right now). If he keeps that money in stocks, bank accounts, whatever, he's likely being taxed on it (hence why basically every wealthy person has an offshore account in a tax haven), but if he invests that money in something that doesn't get taxed but is almost 100% certain to retain it's value if not increase in value over the years, say a bunch of P9....
TL;DR: he's investing in low risk/high reward items that decrease the transparency of his assets.
July 14, 2016 7:28 a.m.