Deathmist raptor long term value?
Economics forum
Posted on Sept. 14, 2015, 5:13 a.m. by RedDiomedes
I find myself with a set of Whisperwood Elemental and one or two Den Protector. It seems like Deathmist Raptor woukd be an obvious card choice to make a really strong deck. That card dominates,!
It's price will also dominate my wallet. I'm not too worried about the price still I'll get a decent chuck of playtime from it still. However I'm curious if this card will hold any value when dragons rotates out.
I understand it sees no play in modern, or any other format for that matter and since it plays best as a four of in a deck I don't think it's a great commander card either. Will it's value completly tank post rotation? I have never survived a rotation for which I have great cards to know what happens in these situations
It iwll hold as much value as any other playable Standard-only mythic. My guess is Blood Baron of Vizkopa prices.
September 14, 2015 5:56 a.m.
The only way Deathmist Raptor will hold value once it rotates will be if a morph heavy deck starts dominating one of those formats. Based on those odds, I think the Blood Baron of Vizkopa scenario is spot on, though I think that card sees mild Commander play, so maybe even less.
September 14, 2015 6:32 a.m.
A good way of knowing whether or not a card will survive rotation is how playable it is in non-Standard formats.
In Modern, it needs to have 4+ toughness (Tasigur, the Golden Fang, Wurmcoil Engine) if it costs more than 1 mana or do something amazing (Huntmaster of the Fells Flip, Snapcaster Mage). This is because of the prevalence of Lightning Bolt in the format.
For Legacy and Vintage, creatures have to be upgrades in existing strategies or enable entirely new archetypes. For example, Craterhoof Behemoth replaced Chameleon Colossus in Elves, while Monastery Mentor enabled an entirely new archetype in Vintage. This is because of how high the bar has been set for creatures in these formats. If your turn three play is Deathmist Raptor, you're not in a good spot if your opponent plays True-Name Nemesis or Tinker -> Blightsteel Colossus.
Deathmist Raptor is basically a french vanilla 3/3 with deathtouch for 3. 90% or more of creatures in Standard fall into the same boat.
September 14, 2015 6:35 a.m.
this will plummet below Blood baron, he has prot from two of the best removal colours, and has lifelike, and a clause that could make him even bigger. The fact that he is a vampire cannot be ignored for usefulness either. The raptor will not even be useful for Beast decks tbh
September 14, 2015 7:26 a.m.
JakeHarlow says... #7
Yes, pretty much. Three-drop that can't beat as well as Tarmogoyf and dies to Lightning Bolt. No other eternally-played morph cards to support its reanimation clause. Negligible value here.
I think Den Protector has a much better chance to see any eternal play, and even that's kind of a slim chance, seeing how crowded the 2-drop slot is for Green decks in Modern.
All in all, I imagine our Raptor will Plummet to $3 or less.
September 14, 2015 9:25 a.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #8
I imagine that many eternal players are the same as me and don't care for the Morph mechanic. Another strike against it. For reference fan favorite Glissa, the Traitor.
September 14, 2015 10:40 a.m.
@APPLE01DOJ Well, Glissa is legendary and can be used as a Commander, so there's that.
September 14, 2015 11:05 a.m.
Cobthecobbler says... #10
Usually if a card is only seeing play in standard, thats where its price comes from. Once it rotates out, it goes down to bulk prices. Most of the time if a card is going to see play eternally, it does before it rotates, and since the raptor doesn't, its safe to assume it'll go down to bulk. Unless something comes out later that makes it an extremely viable card, or it becomes an EDH staple, it won't go back up. Thems the breaks.
Putrefy says... #2
This card will plummet to bulk-mythic value.
September 14, 2015 5:16 a.m.