Do reprints actually lower barrier to entry?
Economics forum
Posted on Feb. 24, 2014, 12:10 p.m. by raithe000
So, everyone knows that one of the issues with Modern and Legacy is the high barrier to entry. It just costs too much money to build a deck. Now, I'm not saying this is the only barrier to entry, and I don't really care about the argument that you can just trade for stuff, so it doesn't cost as much. What I want to know is whether reprints of staples actually make it easier to get into the format, and how one should make this determination.
Everyone knows about the MMA Tarmogoyf problem. There are mitigating circumstances there (MMA was highly limited, 'goyf got bumped up in rarity) but I'm curious about what the price increase actually means. I've heard arguments that the price increase actually reflects more players getting into Modern, the price spike reflecting more of the increased demand. What do you think?
Mutavault is perhaps a better example of reprint's affect on price. After M14, the price of a Morningtide Mutavault dropped dramatically, from a high of about $36 to around $20 in October (the M14 version started at about $15, and was consistently that until October). However, since October the price of both versions has been steadily climbing, to the point that the Morningtide edition is now $40 and the M14 is $36, and neither shows any signs of slowing.
Admittedly, this is due to the Standard demand, and we should see a price drop come rotation. But where will the post-rotation price actually stabilize? And again, would a higher price actually represent higher barrier to entry, or a higher demand for Modern?
So, what do you think? Do reprints reduce, or increase, barrier to entry, in both the long and short term? Am I looking at exceptions to the rule? If so, what is a good example where reprints led to a long-term price drop? And is barrier to entry correctly defined by price, or does price more accurately represent demand?
Yes, but the general idea of reprints reducing price is that the stable price after a reprint will be less than the stable price before the reprint. It's not clear that will happen for Mutavault . While the barrier will go up over time, in theory the reprint should reduce the overall price in the long-term. Does that actually happen?
February 24, 2014 12:19 p.m.
Servo_Token says... #4
It only happens for certain cards. Cards that are a 4 of in literally every deck (Mutavault ) across multiple formats are probably going to be a higher stable price after they're out of print, just because they were made more available to more people and the demand is constantly there.
For other cards that are only in one deck (Living End ), a reprint would definitely drive the price down, because even though the number of people that that deck is available to is higher, the demand for it on average will stay about the same.
I would say that reprints don't really effect barrier to entry so much as they effect accessibility in the long run.
February 24, 2014 12:26 p.m.
Epochalyptik says... #5
"Barrier to entry" is a term that defines the relative difficulty a player would have getting into a format. Barrier to entry scales with price and card availability, as well as the complexity of the meta and available options.
Card price generally scales to demand, but also accounts for other factors. Demand is generally the most significant factor, though.
As for your other questions:
It's a mix of factors. There's the typical "more people want to play" answer, which is probably true (I haven't looked at event attendance). There's also the "speculators and investors are buying out the market every season" answer, which is at least partially true.
Reprints tend to reduce the barrier to entry in the short term because the market gets new supply. In the long term, prices tend to stabilize (especially when reprint prices spike as pre-season buyers clean stores out), but it's undeniable that many cards are already in the hands of those who need them.
You're correct to consider rarity as well. You should also look at the size of the print run. For example, Tarmogoyf was reprinted at mythic rare, but that rarity was in a limited-release product as well. Therefore, there really weren't enough extra copies of Goyf to meet the increase in demand
February 24, 2014 12:27 p.m.
blackmarker90 says... #6
Mutavault is an anomaly, the price will go down after rotation. Tarmogoyf wasn't given a large printing and it has alternate art, both are factors to steadily increase the price of one or both printings of the card over time.
February 24, 2014 12:28 p.m.
Epochalyptik says... #7
Honestly, I don't believe alternate art is a very significant factor in a card's value. It may influence some players this way or that, but overall, players are going to go with 1) what's available, or 2) what's cheaper.
February 24, 2014 12:30 p.m.
Didgeridooda says... #8
The reprints actually encourage people to play modern where they did not before. The opening is larger. The barrier is also temporarily lowered while those cards are first reprinted, then they rise back up.
February 24, 2014 1:35 p.m.
SharuumNyan says... #9
I highly doubt Mutavault is going to go down after rotation. It's played too much in other formats. It'll probably stay the same for a while and then creep up even more.
Reprinting cards isn't really about making them more affordable. It's about delivering a supply to the market. It means people can open them in packs, and a group of players will pull some of them and can trade amongst themselves for different staples. The fetches might drop for a couple of months during reprint, but they'll go right back up again. Modern is increasing in popularity, so all good Modern cards are in demand right now, and that demand will continue to rise.
And Modern really isn't any more expensive than Standard to get started, unless you're a brand new player who doesn't have a decent collection of cards at home. A lot of players dragon-hoard dual lands, and that's where most of the expense is in most Modern decks. And that $800 you could spend on a good Modern deck...how many Standard decks can you build for that? Maybe 3? So after a year Modern is a cheaper format anyway.
February 24, 2014 1:57 p.m.
One of the goals with MMA wasn't to reduce the price of cards. It was to make them more available. A problem Eternal format and Modern players run into is supply. Many of them have the trade value and/or cash to buy cards, but can't find them anywhere. It took me over a year to find a playset of City of Traitors , and each one I traded for.
So to answer the OP's question, reprints don't necessarily lower the price to buy into an older format, especially with how cautious WotC is after Chronicles. It does, however, make certain cards more available.
If they reprinted Wasteland and Force of Will in a core set tomorrow, I doubt their price would go down much, if at all. However, stores would actually start having them in stock and people would have them in their binders.
February 24, 2014 6:14 p.m.
Schuesseled says... #11
@SharuumNyan I highly doubt it, mutavault (m14) is currently sitting just below what the morningtide version has been for a long time. If anything it will go down a bit when it leaves standard, as it will see less play.
Eternal + Standard Usage > Just Eternal
February 25, 2014 9:33 a.m.
Reprints can mitigate price increases, although MMA dropped the price of a lot of modern cards and made them easier to get, it also slows the rise of cards like bob and goyf down a little bit by increaseing the supply, goyfs could easily be $180/$200 without the MMA printing, which even now on ebay is up from $110 to $140
The supply is increased but it also increases demand, now if everyone hoarding boxes of MMA would just open them the supply would deffinetly increase lol, there is probably 20+ boxes just between a couple of my LGS and ive heard of people hoarding 10+ boxes themselves
February 25, 2014 11:16 a.m.
Reprints on cards that are highly in demand will mostly slow the continued rise of prices. (Assuming that the card is reprinted in a rare/mythic rare state).
Mutavault will probably see a slight drop after rotation and then rise again. (look at Snapcaster Mage , which wasn't a reprint but was a popular card in other formats than standard and it dropped to $17, its now $34)
The more cards printed the more supply there is=lower cost. Limited runs like MMA won't do nearly as much as a full standard reprint.
blackmarker90 says... #2
It does both. While the reprints are being run the barrier is reduced because there are packs being opened for said cards, but once the printing is done/sold out the barrier gradually goes up over the long term as there are less and less unopened packs in circulation.
February 24, 2014 12:16 p.m.