Economics forum
Posted on July 12, 2015, 5:24 p.m. by seuvius
Do you think this card is going to raise in price at all or do you think it wont be played and wont be worth anything? I know it can't be hit by collected company so it wont be played in modern but I do not keep up with standard whatsoever.
Depends. It's certainly possible Elves become a thing, and if it's a big deck this would be important I imagine. Best case it could be like $15-18 I think. That said, it is much more likely to be only $1-3.
July 12, 2015 5:33 p.m.
buildingadeck says... #4
I believe it's the rare in the Intro Deck, so I can't imagine it becoming too pricey...
July 12, 2015 5:35 p.m.
Dalektable says... #5
Think of it this way. This card won't even be a four of in the decks it's played in, so that will affect the price. Look at something like Siege Rhino, for example. Every Abzan deck in both standard AND modern run four copies of the card, and it never got above eight dollars. It fits into LITERALLY only one deck, and will only be played in standard and maybe EDH to a small degree. It is also an intro pack rare as mentioned above. Because of all of these things, I can't see this card going any higher than five dollars and that is if and only if the elves deck becomes incredibly popular. Dollar rare.
July 12, 2015 6:27 p.m.
Well if you look at the card, it doesn't really seem like much, but it could actually be a pretty big factor in a game.
In standard, it could be a big factor, or it could be a complete whiff. It could be a big hit because there are a lot of pretty decent elves coming out, and they seem pretty underestimated. If you attack every turn with a pretty decent force, you gain one life for each elf. That could be pretty good.
However it could also really suck because your elves could die and you get no life.
In Modern, it could be pretty effective because it is a lord, and Mono-Green Elves is a big thing right now. Considering Thragtusk and Scavenging Ooze are elves only real good life gain.
Dwynen, Gilt-Leaf Daen could be something good in modern because it could give Elves a lord that gives life. That could be potentially huge, or it could just suck.
I think that the price could go up if it proves to be successful, and it could easily be a 5-6 dollar card if it turns to work out. If it doesn't, well, it'll go down to be 50 cents like every other unsuccessful rare.
I personally think that it could be really effective for elves in prolonging games a turn or two to get a combo off.
July 12, 2015 6:40 p.m.
@Dalektable actually Siege Rhino got up to at least $10 that I know of (possibly higher). However, one of the biggest things that kept the price of Siege Rhino and the fetches down, and stopped them from getting out of hand while they're in standard, is the sheer amount of Khans of Tarkir that was opened. It put so much Khans into circulation that supply was, for the most part, able to keep up with demand. And supply and demand is easily the single greatest factor in a cards price.
What you said is logical if we look at it in a vacuum. Rhino is played as a 4 of in every abzan deck in standard and modern so a card that sees less play should cost less. But like I said that is if we look at it in a vacuum and assume all things are equal. In reality that's not going to happen. The amount of Origins that is going to be opened is completely unknown at this point so, there's no way to know if the sheer amounts opened will be able to help keep the prices down the way Khans did. Your also assuming that it will not see play in Modern elves decks, which there's no way you could know because your obviously not psychic. So your basically making a declaration based on speculation and then comparing that to a completely different situation. So while what you say may seem logical and kind of make sense, it doesn't necessarily make it true.
Now with all that being said, the fact that Dwynen is an intro rare will probably limit how high it's price can actually climb. The intro packs are done in what seems to be a relatively high print, which will greatly increase the supply that is available. So even if she does see lots of play in modern and in standard it appears that there will be enough in circulation to keep her at a reasonable price and really prevent her from spiking while she's standard legal.
July 12, 2015 8:29 p.m.
Wizard of the Damned says... #9
He will be equal to krenko five to six bucks.
July 12, 2015 10:05 p.m.
Didn't know he was an intro pack card.
Also, fucking Dragonlord Ojutai got expensive and wasn't a 4-of in anything and was only played in 1 standard deck.
July 13, 2015 12:29 a.m.
Dalektable says... #11
abenz419 Some of your points are valid I admit, however I do have an issue of my "assuming" and psychic powers. Do you want to know how I know it won't be played in modern elves? Because I have been playing the deck for about six months, multiple times a week and I can say with absolute certainty there is no way modern elves wants this card. The current version only functions well because of Collected Company, so the new guy is a dead card to the deck. Modern has a variety of lords for elves, and not even all of them are played in the deck and these other lords cost less mana. I am incredibly confidant this card will not see play in a modern elves deck. I'm not psychic, I simply am very familiar with the deck. It is the equivalent to someone who plays Twin saying that Breaching Hippocamp will not see play in their deck, because the card simply isn't good enough. It comes from experience.
July 13, 2015 12:48 a.m.
Dalektable says... #12
Jay Dragonlord Ojutai is different, for one he is a casual players love child any mythic dragon will keep some value haha. But this card being a mythic rare and it having HUGE hype around it because of it's ability made it overly expensive. Still too expensive, IMO.
July 13, 2015 12:49 a.m.
Except your still making assumptions. Obviously if the most popular version being played only function wells because of Collected Company then that just means the current version hasn't existed for very long or that the current is even the best version. There are quite a few elves in the set and of course not all of them are going to be played in modern elves, however, there will be at least 1 if not more that do end up seeing play. That right there means the current version is already going to change. Now lets think ahead a little bit about how Battle for Zendikar is the next set coming out in a couple of months. Given what's known about Zendikar, it's not unrealistic to expect there to be even more elves in the next set. This means even more potential changes for the deck. To say it will not see play because you play modern elves right now is kind of irrelevant. The modern elves deck 3 or 4 months from now doesn't have to and probably won't look like the deck does now. The only reason a deck would have, not to change, is if it's completely unbeatable. That's when literally everyone plays it and things get banned. I don't think modern elves is quite that strong so expect it to change if it's going to get better.
Epochalyptik says... #2
Dwynen, Gilt-Leaf Daen
July 12, 2015 5:33 p.m.