Effects of a PT
Economics forum
Posted on May 1, 2016, 11:51 a.m. by DarkMagician
With Modern no longer being a pro tour format could we see a gradual decline in the value of Modern decks? Thoughts and opinions?
No. In fact showings at large events don't impact card prices as much as other factors such as reprints. Its correlated but not highly.
May 1, 2016 12:46 p.m.
Modern is also a PPTQ format, so I don't think that prices will fall too much. Also price inertia is a hell of a drug.
May 1, 2016 1:31 p.m.
ChiefBell, I'm hoping you have an answer to this one: if reprints effect prices on a large scale (makes sense) why didnthebreprinting of Tarmogoyf in MOdern Masters not cause a price reduction? If I'm not mistaken, that reprint caused a price increase. Now I understand they are limited run sets. I don't understand the economics behind: more exist, price goes up. You seem knowledgable at this aspect, so I'm hoping you have the answer.
May 1, 2016 1:46 p.m.
I can't remember what happened immediately after it was reprinted but I know right now that both MM goyf are around $140 to $150 whereas FS goyf is $180 to $190. If we take the minimum reduction there of $30, that still represents a 16% reduction.
Perhaps initially the price rose because loads of people were mad keen to get a goyf and many boxes hadn't been opened? But certainly as of this moment there has been a decrease.
May 1, 2016 1:54 p.m.
Fair enough...so hype took over, then settled down and a small price reduction did occur. Cool. Thanks.
May 1, 2016 2:16 p.m.
Gidgetimer says... #8
http://www.mtgprice.com/sets/Future_Sight/Tarmogoyf
http://www.mtgprice.com/sets/Future_Sight/Tarmogoyf
http://www.mtgprice.com/sets/Modern_Masters_2015/Tarmogoyf
First reprint doubled Tarmagoyf's price, second reprint made the reprints drop back to 150% of the pre-reprint price but left the Future site printing at double.
May 1, 2016 3:31 p.m.
Yeah seems about right. The factors I found that affected price were number of reprints and card rarity. Goyf at mythic rare obviously saw price increases (as evidenced above) initially due to the sharp increase in demand caused by MM1 but limited extra supply. MM1 was sold as an entry point to modern, and given this many players got excited about the format and thus sought to build modern decks. Seems entirely reasonable that this would lead to lots of people suddenly buying Goyf and inflating prices.
As MM2 came out it would appear that enough extra copies were produced to slightly placate prices. I suppose that with MM2 being so close in time to MM1 the demand wouldn't have increased much. The vast majority of new modern players had already boarded the train with MM1 so there weren't a tonne of people joining modern with the release of MM2, however there was limited increase in supply. That would explain the small price drop.
My maths that I did earlier today showed that mythic cards were far more expensive than commons (seems obvious) and that the number of times a card had been reprinted affected price (seems obvious). Pretty much the worst combination is a rare / mythic rare that's only seen 2-3 prints. Think fetches and goyf. On the other end of the scale are cards like Bolt that have been reprinted like 11 times and often at common.
The number of times a card had been played in pro tours and grand prixs was not well correlated to price.
May 1, 2016 3:53 p.m.
elementalheroflamewingman says... #10
Gidgetimer because most people that opened one goyf wanted three more.
May 1, 2016 4:36 p.m.
Gidgetimer says... #11
ElementalHeroFlameWingman, I didn't say I was puzzled by it. I was giving information on the price change in question so that there was hard data on the numbers. This enabled CheifBell to have data to explain instead of "I can't remember what happened immediately after it was reprinted" and then a comparison of FUT Goyf to MM Goyf. I could have extrapolated my own economic analysis from the data I gave, but refrained from doing so because another user was specifically asked for their analysis.
kabrazell says... #2
There still seems to be support for Modern at the Grand Prix level and SCG opens as well, so I don't see a major decline for prices unless that changes in the coming years.
May 1, 2016 12:06 p.m.