Estimated Value for MM15
Economics forum
Posted on May 12, 2015, 4:21 p.m. by DonThomasko
Hello Tappedout,
I took some time to make a first analysis of the EV for Modern Masters 2015
I calculated the average worth of all the mythics/rares/uncommons based on market value and added some charts and booster/box value.
I also calculated the variance and spread of the top 20% value cards as opposed to the bottom 80% cards...
ASSUMPTIONS:
*I used the price trends on magiccardmarket.eu for each card. I did not add commons to the file but I did make an average of the worth of these cards found on MM.eu which comes down to 0.14 eurocents
*I used the cheapest version of each card unless the modern masters version has an altered art compared to the older versions
*The price for foils is 1.5x for uncommons/commons and 2x for rares. This seems as a plausible factor to calculate foils in my experience.
*The amount of mythic/rare foils is calculated based on the amount of times these cards show up in a booster (1/15 of which is 12.5% mythic 87.5% rare). I dont have proof to support a solid ratio but this seemed like the safest assumption to make to calculate this factor.
CONCLUSIONS (thus far):
*The variance/worth/spread of the mythics is pretty even with the exception of comet storm and tezzeret. Pretty much all the other mythics are very good.
*The value of the rares is very spread out. There is a high chance of pulling below 5 euro cards or even below 1 euro cards!!
*Overall the AVERAGE booster is worth it (a little higher than buying price) although this figure might be estimated a bit high compared to reality.
*However: There is a HIGH chance you will get dud boosters containing bad cards leaving the average MTG player who is buying a few boosters disappointed...
I completely disagree with most of that article, and a fundamental premise.
I DO NOT buy packs for exciting mythics. I buy packs for exciting uncommons etc.
May 12, 2015 4:36 p.m.
But as you well know, one anomaly does not a statistic disprove
You are within their margin of error!
May 12, 2015 4:38 p.m. Edited.
DonThomasko says... #6
Okay thanks for the comments but what do they have to do with my post? I am looking for feedback on the accuracy of my estimation and EV on boosters etc.
Personally I think MM15 might actually be worth it because the estimated value of the average booster is NEAR the MSRP of the product. This is something most sets dont even come close to...
May 12, 2015 5:12 p.m.
...what do you mean "what do they have to do with my post"? I gave you an article written by a professional financial analyst you could compare your article to. Check your thoughts and numbers vs. his.
May 12, 2015 5:14 p.m.
For example, you've listed Tarmogoyf at $117. He doesn't think it will drop at all, and if it does, it won't go past $150.
May 12, 2015 5:15 p.m.
Actually thats 117 euros he's done. Which is roughly right. Slightly high. Slightly.
I got my goyfs for $110 off eBay. They are low on eBay etc IF you try to resell them.
To the above calculations - they're fine if you're trying to trade, but not right if you're trying to sell on. You won't get that much. Besides mtgfinance has already done all of this.
May 12, 2015 5:25 p.m.
$110 us or eu? cuz $110 us would be a fantastic deal. I'm only finding like $160
May 12, 2015 5:34 p.m.
DonThomasko says... #12
My spreadsheet is in Euros though, and Goyf doesnt go for anywhere near 150 unless you buy from a shop. Agreed, it might go up but I am talking prices as they are right now. Speculation is something else.
If I were to use the prices listed in that article, my EV of a booster would skyrocket above the MSRP. I am trying to compare the value of a box/booster with what you can find on the market today (for as cheap as possible).
May 12, 2015 5:34 p.m.
So you are comparing the prices of cards in a booster to the prices you would have to pay to buy cards. That is fine.
The other thing you can do is compare the price of cards in a booster to the prices you would get for selling the cards. That is what investors are more interested in.
kyuuri117 - My most recent playset of goyfs I got off eBay just as they spoiled him in this MM set. I can't explain but I think people started to panic sell. I picked up 4 for between $100 and $120. I think the price has recovered now.
May 12, 2015 5:43 p.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #14
Just saying, if you want to have a discussion about Modern economics, I'm pretty sure that there are better places with more qualified people (not saying that Chief and Kyuuri aren't qualified, but there are specialists for a reason). Making an account for the sole purpose of creating this post about a spreadsheet you made is fairly strange, in my eyes. This is first and foremost a deckbuilding site.
May 12, 2015 6:11 p.m.
omnipwnage says... #16
You've basically summarized what I've read and understood when the official spoilers came out not too long ago. From someone that didn't have enough cash on hand at the time to buy a booster box (for $160... x_x )the inherent value in the original set was outstanding. The value in the new set is still there, but it's just not as overwhelming as it was the last time.
I've prepaid for a box already, as I plan to hold a draft on my birthday near the end of the year. Otherwise, I'd probably keep it and sell it off in 18 months
May 12, 2015 7:05 p.m.
DonThomasko says... #17
@famouswatermelon
I just searched for a place to discuss my findings. I though an economics thread for MTG would be the perfect place for this? :)
@ChiefBell
Thanks! (post 14)
To post 12: The value of buying these cards seperatly is a good indicator for the actual value of a box/booster as an investment.
Will you lose money if you buy one of these boxes? Most definitely not in my opinion. Most sets have a worth of around 30% lower for their boxes than the actual sale price, while this set has value almost the same as the sale price. And that is not even taking in account the hype/playability in drafts of this set.
May 13, 2015 10:33 a.m.
I have recently gone through and recorded the regular price and foil price for each card in MM2015... I used StarCityGames, as this is the price used in my area for trade value and for my LGS's sell price.
I then calculated the; Average Rare Price, Average Mythic Price, Average Uncommon Price, Average Common Price... then the same for all of the above in Foils...
Using this, I calculated the average Rare slot value (Rx7/8 + Mx1/8).
Where the prices currently sit, the value of ONLY the rare slots in a 24pk box has an average value of $238.16 (just under MSRP)
The value of the rare slots + uncommons has an average box value of $282.85
The value of the rare slots + foils (not uncommons) has an average box value of $332.10 (assuming a 1:3:10 distribution of foils among rarities - $523.63 if rarities are distributed evenly... some people claim this is the case, but I doubt it.)
The value of the packs without commons has an average box value of $346.99 (538.52 if foils distributed evenly)
And the value of complete packs has an average box value of 352.11 (619.53 if foils distributed evenly)
I listed these so that people can take from it what they wish... some people prefer to ignore foils, others ignore commons, others look only at rares... etc.
Things that should be qualified:
- The distribution of value in MM2015 is quite wide and top heavy. As such, opening a single pack (or a few packs) has a low chance of returning "average value", but opening a "value pack" will yield very high value. If you are aiming for the 'average' it is best to open a large number of packs... otherwise, it's a lottery.
- These prices are full sale value of the cards. You should not expect to be able to make $$$ off of these averages. For best value, you should a) be expecting to use the cards you open, b) expect to hold onto cards for future and eventual trade value, or c) use a site like PucaTrade to allow yourself most/all of the trade value over time.
May 13, 2015 2:48 p.m.
I also noticed that some of the prices on SCG seem arbitrary... I have a feeling that, given a little time, the prices for many/most of the cards will rise slightly.
I also find it interesting that although Wizards didn't put as many 'value' uncommons as they did in MM1... they appear to have payed attention to foil values. - They have many $0.25-$0.49 cards which have a $5-$10+ foil.
Spectral Procession - regular $0.45 - foil $19.99
Ulamog's Crusher - regular $0.49 - foil $4.99
Mulldrifter - regular $0.49 - foil $4.99
Thoughtcast - regular $0.99 - foil $14.99
Mutagenic Growth - regular $0.49 - foil $5.99
Horde of Notions - regular $0.49 - foil $8.99
.... and many more.
May 13, 2015 2:57 p.m. Edited.
Little more math done:
Foil Rares are, on average, 3.06 time the value of regular Rares.
Foil Mythics are, on average, 2.69 time the value of regular Mythics.
Foil Uncommons are, on average, 5.22 time the value of regular Uncommons.
Foil Commons are, on average, 7.75 time the value of regular Commons.
These could go down, as SCG has not yet put a price on MM2015 foils... this is based on lowest price for non-promo foils previously printed.
May 13, 2015 3:17 p.m. Edited.
Rayenous that's actually really interested and not something i'd given any thought to. You get a foil each pack right? That might really help to mitigate the price of the packs.
May 13, 2015 3:20 p.m.
DonThomasko says... #23
Hey Rayenous!
How come your values are so high though? 619 with foils??? I have distributed my foils evenly also. What figures do you use? actual prices or a foil multiplier like me?
Store prices are usualy quite abit higher than market value if you were to sell your cards yourself. My estimation uses prices from an online market like eBay or magicmarket.
Also thanks for pointing out the freak foils I didnt notice those before. I might want to add that to my calculations as the may just increase the value of a box drasticly...
This is a thread about a recent MM2015 pack generator which is really interesting. They also come closer to a 250 dollar average per box:https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgfinance/comments/35qu23/mm2015_sealed_simulator
May 13, 2015 3:31 p.m.
I used the actual prices for foils on StarCityGames...
As you can see in post #19, the multiplier for foils is quite high for this set. - Simply doubling the value of cards to estimate the foil value doesn't quite cut it.
As a rough estimation, and/or for estimating the attainable cash value (as opposed to full retail value), doubling is probably the right method for the estimate.
May 13, 2015 3:35 p.m.
DonThomasko says... #26
@chiefbelle
Yes, but if you were to evaluate how much your cards are worth you must compare to what others are getting for them. I am not Starcity games and neither is 99% of the other people selling their cards. Noone can get those prices unless they can sell in bulk or are a big store like. People order there because of the big card pool (cheaper shipping, 1 vendor) and service.
May 13, 2015 4:10 p.m.
I agree. I would evaluate based on the price I could get for selling my cards instead of what the shops sell them for. I was just explaining why your values are different to those obtained by Rayenous
May 13, 2015 4:14 p.m.
DonThomasko says... #28
I'm sorry I seem to have some lagg. I sometiems dont see posts untill an hour after I posted. I see there have been previous posts to what I said that I didnt see yet, strange.
May 13, 2015 5:05 p.m.
Can we get a recalculation now that prices have crashed?
kyuuri117 says... #2
I'm not sure if i'm supposed to be doing this, but i've copy and pasted an article Chas Andres (financial analyst at StarCityGames) posted yesterday on the Premium side.
"The biggest problem that most people had with Modern Masters was the inclusion of the Kamigawa Dragons. While these cards are beloved in casual circles, seeing them take up a third of the set's mythic rare slots was brutal.
This time around, we watched the spoilers roll in with dollar signs in our eyes. With only one mythic (Comet Storm) that could really be described as disappointing, Modern Masters 2015 absolutely nailed our top end desires. Tarmogoyf! Vendilion Clique! Bitterblossom! Mox Opal! Karn Liberated! Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite! All three Eldrazi titans! These are the mythics we've been looking for.
When I woke up on Friday morning, though, my Twitter feed was exploding with disappointment over the back half of the spoiler. No Damnation? No Goblin Guide? No Serum Visions, Aven Mindcensor, or Gitaxian Probe? What the heck happened!?
As it turns out, Wizards of the Coast decided to change the scope and complexion of Modern Masters this time around. While the first set was deep in playables at all rarities, MM2015 seems built mostly to pack a wallop at the top end. In the first Modern Masters set, you had a very good chance of cracking a pack and finding a worthwhile card in the rare slot alongside a couple of $1-$3 commons and uncommons. In Modern Masters 2015, however, you have a better chance of opening a great cardbut also a better chance of finding a fifty cent bulk rare staring back at you.
I didn't see this shift coming, but I should have. Here's why Wizards' new structure makes sense:
They gave us what we wanted. I don't have access to WotC's market research data, but common sense tells me that Magic players aren't motivated to buy packs based on the value of the sixth best white rare in the set. Players like exciting mythics and good Limited environments, and Modern Masters 2015 will give us both of those things. Adding value to the back end doesn't sell packs.
Casual reprints are a limited resource . Reprints sell sets. Why waste the excitement of a reprint like Adarkar Valkyrie or Woodfall Primus on Modern Masters when the price of those cards are just going to tank to Ant Queen levels anyway? It's better to save them for another time when they'll make a bigger impact and print actual Ant Queen again.
Flagship mythics that help sell sets like Modern Masters are an even more limited resource. If Modern Masters 2015 was oozing value from top to bottom, everything in it would drop in value by a lot. That includes cards like Vendilion Clique and Tarmogoyf that WotC needs to keep expensive in order to make Modern Masters 2015 (and 2017, and 2019) packs feel worth it at $10 each. Remember: Wizards of the Coast wants Modern to be affordable enough to play, but not affordable enough that the idea of a $10 pack of Modern Masters seems silly. It's a hard line to walk, and it relies on keeping the dream of $200 Tarmogoyfs alive. In order to keep the secondary market healthy, there always has to be another carrot just over the horizon.
What I don't understand and can't justify is why a few of the uncommons that really needed a reprint weren't included in MM2015. I expect that we'll see at least one of them as the August FNM foil (Serum Visions?) and at least one more in Battle for Zendikar. (Inquisition of Kozilek?) A few other absences are baffling, though. I'll get to them near the end of the article.
For now, it's worth taking some time to talk about how Modern Masters 2015 actually stacks up. How many rares will cost you more than the price of a pack? Is it worth buying a booster box? Which cards are most likely to hold their value, and which seemed destined to tank the fastest? What are the most glaring omissions? Let's find out, starting with a color-by-color breakdown of every mythic and rare in Modern Masters 2015:
White Mythics & Rares
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite - $29.99
Iona, Shield of Emeria - $24.99
Leyline of Sanctity - $19.99
Daybreak Coronet - $19.99
Mirran Crusader - $1.99
Battlegrace Angel - $1.49
Mirror Entity - $1.49
Indomitable Archangel - $0.75
Average Rare Slot Value: $10.24
As we go through this article, I'm going to break down the average value of the rare slot by color. Note that this is a rough calculation that isn't likely to remain accurate for long-card prices will drop once the set hits store shelves. I'm using a 1:2 calculation in order to compensate for mythic rarity since that's the ratio they appear at on the print sheets. As always, your own personal pack value will vary widely based on how many mythics you are lucky enough to open. The more packs you crack, the more your series of pulls will regress toward the mean.
Anyhow, of the eight white cards in the set, there are four solid pulls and four total disappointments. Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite sees both competitive and casual play, so I expect it to retain the majority of its value. Iona, Shield of Emeria won't hold up quite as well, but it does have a home in Commander (for those who hate fun) and in some competitive Reanimator decks. Leyline of Sanctity is a crucial sideboard card in Modern, so it'll make a pretty good pick-up once it bottoms out in a month or so. Daybreak Coronet's playability, however, is solely tied to G/W Hexproof. Unless that deck makes a comeback, Coronet could drop pretty hard and never recover.
Blue Mythics & Rares
Vendilion Clique - $49.99
Cryptic Command - $49.99
Tezzeret the Seeker - $14.99
Hurkyl's Recall - $5.99
Guile - $0.75
Inexorable Tide - $0.49
Argent Sphinx - $0.49
Surrakar Spellblade - $0.49
Average Rare Slot Value: $12.95
Blue is a little more top-heavy than white, with only Vendilion Clique and Cryptic Command likely to remain above-pack-value pulls. Tezzeret the Seeker's uses are mostly limited to the casual arena, and Elspeth vs. Tezzeret copies are already available close to the $10 mark. I doubt this one stays at $15 for long.
I'd expect the supply of copies of Hurkyl's Recall to outpace demand fairly soon, though it's always a nice long-term hold. Hurkyl's Recall has been reprinted several times, and it always seems to recover. I'm a buyer if it drops off over the summer.
Black Mythics & Rares
Dark Confidant - $49.99
Bitterblossom - $39.99
Surgical Extraction - $4.99
Puppeteer Clique - $3.99
Necroskitter - $3.99
Midnight Banshee - $1.49
Profane Command - $0.75
Endrek Sahr, Master Breeder - $0.49
Average Rare Slot Value: $8.67
Continuing the trend established by the blue cards, black is the most top-heavy color yet. Dark Confidant and Bitterblossom are always going to be good pulls, though Dark Confidant's price could continue to take a beating until it finds a new home in a top tier Modern deck. If Bob remains borderline unplayable in all formats, we could be seeing sub-$30 prices as soon as August.
I think that Bitterblossom will do a better job than Dark Confidant of maintaining its value. Tokens decks aren't exactly lighting the Modern scene on fire, of course, but Bitterblossom is very popular in kitchen table matches and in Commander. B/W Tokens is also a very popular budget/casual deck for Modern-lite players, and the event deck from last year pumped a lot of the deck's other staples into the marketplace. Many people are going to buy the event deck after they open a Bitterblossom and will try to trade into a few more copies after that.
Beyond the mythics, black has a couple of unexciting cards in the $3 range mixed with a few bulk rares. That's not exactly great news for value seekers. I've long been a fan of Necroskitter as a sleeper spec, but at this point it seems overpriced considering how many copies are about to flood the market. Overall, I'd stay away from everything else in black until the set scrapes bottom in late July/early August.
Red Mythics & Rares
Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker - $19.99
Splinter Twin - $19.99
Banefire - $1.99
Comet Storm - $1.49
Hellkite Charger - $0.99
Thunderblust - $0.75
Spikeshot Elder - $0.49
Wildfire - $0.49
Average Rare Slot Value: $5.06
Oof-if you're value-conscious, look away from the red section of the spoiler. Kiki-Jiki is in Modern Masters 2015 mostly because there aren't any good alternatives. What else could they do? Reprint Dragonmaster Outcast? Upgrade Magus of the Moon or Through the Breach to mythic rare? At least Kiki-Jiki is beloved in casual circles and does see occasional Modern play. I doubt it'll drop below $15-$18 based on the kitchen table market alone.
Splinter Twin is even more likely to maintain its value. Twin is still one of the two or three best decks in the format, and there simply isn't enough value in MM2015 to tank this card below $15 or so. I'm holding all of my copies of this for now.
Beyond those two cards, there's nothing here worth saying much about. Foil copies of Wildfire should hold a premium because the Modern Masters artwork is pretty cool. The lack of both Blood Moon and Goblin Guide is pretty glaring, though.
Green Mythics & Rares
Tarmogoyf - $174.99
Noble Hierarch - $39.99
Primeval Titan - $14.99
Scute Mob - $0.99
Overwhelming Stampede - $0.75
Ant Queen - $0.49
Wolfbriar Elemental - $0.49
All Suns' Dawn - $0.49
Average Green Slot Value: $21.53
Tarmogoyf looms large over this section of the spoiler. The second most valuable card in Modern Masters 2015 is worth $49.99- the 'goyf is three-and-a-half times more valuable. A large part of the price you pay for every pack of Modern Masters will be due to the fact that this might be hiding inside.
Will Tarmogoyf still be worth $175 at the end of the summer? At this point, yeah, I bet it will be. Unlike Dark Confidant, Tarmogoyf backs up its reputation with a ton of high level play. Demand will stay strong, and people will be reluctant to trade these away. Tarmogoyf might drop to $150, but I can't see it going any lower than that.
Noble Hierarch is another card that I doubt will drop too much more than it already has. It sees play in multiple tier one decks, and casual players love it as well. I'm targeting $30 in trade, which would put it in line with Cryptic Command's quick drop and rebound in the first Modern Masters.
I don't think that Primeval Titan will hold as much of its value. The fact that it's banned in Commander limits its upside severely, and I'm not sure if Amulet Bloom will remain a tier one strategy in Modern. It's a finicky, high variance deck to begin with, and the results it put up recently have to be taken with a grain of salt considering that Steven Speck, who had been killing people on turn 1 with regularity, was DQed from a tournament for palming his starting seven. If Amulet Bloom falls off a bit, Primeval Titan could easily find itself in the $6-$8 range before long.
Multicolored Mythics & Rares
Fulminator Mage - $24.99
Wilt-Leaf Liege - $19.99
Apocalypse Hydra - $3.99
Creakwood Liege - $3.99
Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind - $2.99
Mystic Snake - $1.99
Ghost Council of Orzhova - $0.99
Shadowmage Infiltrator - $0.99
Swans of Bryn Argoll - $0.99
Horde of Notions - $0.49
Nobilis of War - $0.49
Average Multicolored Slot Value: $5.62
There aren't any multicolored mythics in the set, so we're left with two high end format staples and nine casual cards. Both Fulminator Mage and Wilt-Leaf Liege are tier one cards that should hold most of their value going forward, and Apocalypse Hydra and Creakwood Liege are intriguing long-term spec buys if they drop down to the $1 range. Everything else here is going to be disappointing to open in a booster pack, though.
Artifact & Colorless Mythics & Rares
Mox Opal - $39.99
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn - $39.99
Kozilek, Butcher of Truth - $39.99
Karn Liberated - $39.99
Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre - $29.99
Spellskite - $19.99
All Is Dust - $9.99
Etched Champion - $2.99
Sunforger - $1.99
Lodestone Golem - $0.99
Lodestone Myr - $0.99
Chimeric Mass - $0.49
Precursor Golem - $0.49
Long-Forgotten Gohei - $0.49
Etched Monstrosity - $0.49
Average Artifact & Colorless Slot Value: $11.55
The artifact and colorless section looks juicy at first glance, but that's mostly because five of the fifteen mythics in the set are here. Of these, I like Mox Opal and Karn Liberated the best. Mox Opal is a four-of in one of the safest and easiest to build decks in the format. Affinity might not be the most exciting deck in the world, but Wizards has been supporting it without banning since the creation of Modern, and it has always been at least a second tier option. Karn Liberated is another mythic that has both casual and competitive appeal. Not only is it good in G/R Tron, but every Cube and Commander player out there could use another copy. His price shouldn't drop that much.
As for the Eldrazi titans, their price will be driven by casual demand as well as what happens in Battle for Zendikar. If we see new titans (and enablers) this fall that aren't as powerful as the original three, their prices could shoot up considerably. If the new batch is even bigger and scarier, Ulamog and Kozilek might be in for a fall. I'll be monitoring them closely as the summer rolls on.
On the rare front, Spellskite and All is Dust are solid cards that should maintain at least 70% of their current value. Etched Champion has probably fallen about as far as it can and is a reasonable buy at $3. The rest of these cards aren't very exciting-in your wildest dreams, did you ever imagine that you'd be paying $10 a pack of a set only to find a Long-Forgotten Gohei staring back at you?
Land Mythics & Rares
Blinkmoth Nexus - $9.99
Eye of Ugin - $4.99
Average Land Slot Value: $7.49
There isn't much to see here. People will want Blinkmoth Nexus for Affinity, so the price should stay relatively high. Eye of Ugin will probably drop off even more until we start to see Eldrazi spoilers in the fall. I might grab a few if they hit $2 in late July.
Overall Thoughts on MM2015 Rares and Mythics
MSRP on a pack of Modern Masters is $9.99. If you add up the current StarCityGames price of all the rares and mythics and average them out, you get $10.06. Granted, that doesn't include the value of the commons, uncommons, or foil slot, but that number tells me that there isn't going to be a lot of room for these cards to drop much further. It also tells me that buying a box of Modern Masters 2015 at retail isn't a terribly good deal. If you only want a few select playsets of cards, you're better off buying them separately and only cracking packs when you're in a draft or attending Grand Prix Las Vegas.
What are your odds of opening a pack that contains a rare worth at least as much as the retail price of the booster? Not counting the foil, it's 28%. That's better than a normal set like Fate Reforged or Dragons of Tarkir, but you've still got a decent chance of sitting down to a draft and opening a bulk rare in all three packs. That wasn't the case in the first Modern Masters expansion, where the value was much more spread out. In addition, the average value of the rare slot in the 'bad' packs of MM2015 (the 72% of packs where you don't at least make your money back) is a putrid $1.50. For a $9.99 MSRP, that's a dreadful return on your investment.
What about the commons and uncommons? Can you make your money back at the lower rarity levels? Let's take a look:
Significant Commons and Uncommons in MM2015
Here are all of the commons and uncommons in MM15 currently retailing for at least $0.99 as of today:
Remand - $9.99
Electrolyze - $2.99
Lightning Bolt - $2.99
Eldrazi Temple - $1.99
Cranial Plating - $1.49
Smash to Smithereens - $1.49 (common)
Artisan of Kozilek - $0.99
Dimir Aqueduct - $0.99
Dismember - $0.99
Dispatch - $0.99
Expedition Map - $0.99
Incandescent Soulstoke - $0.99
Simic Growth Chamber - $0.99
Thoughtcast - $0.99 (common)
Vines of Vastwood - $0.99 (common)
Total = $29.85
That's 3/102 commons (2%) and 12/80 uncommons (15%). Not a great ratio, but not that far off from the original Modern Masters set. It's not exactly a fair comparison because the original Modern Masters came out two years ago, but here's what the cream of the crop from that set looks like today:
Path to Exile - $7.79
Spell Snare - $5.69
Kitchen Finks - $3.99
Lightning Helix - $3.85
Manamorphose - $3.69
Electrolyze - $3.59
Mind Funeral - $3.29
Eternal Witness - $2.89
Lava Spike - $2.69 (common)
Rift Bolt - $2.29 (common)
Paradise Mantle - $1.15
Relic of Progenitus - $1.15
Street Wraith - $0.99 (common)
Narcomoeba - $0.99
Total = $44.04
That's a very similar 3/102 commons (2%) and 11/60 uncommons (18%). The problem isn't the ratios - it's the lack of high end common and uncommon reprints in MM15. Beyond Remand and Electrolyze, we've got a couple of cards that used to be commons (Lightning Bolt and Cranial Plating) alongside a rare in Eldrazi Temple that has been downgraded for Limited play. That list is a far cry from Path to Exile, Spell Snare, Kitchen Finks, and Lightning Helix. I'm also not convinced that narrow demand casual cards like Incandescent Soulstoke will hold their value at all over the next few years, and this list could look a lot worse in a few weeks. Overall, I have to rank the commons and uncommons among the most disappointing aspects of Modern Masters 2015. Unless you open a Remand, (one in every 26.6 packs on average) you're going to end up disappointed.
Biggest Non-Inclusions in Modern Masters 2015
The Rolling Stones were onto something when they told us that we can't always get what we want.
That said, here are the cards that would have made the biggest impact had they been in MM2015. I'm excluding most of the purely casual cards since that list would be hundreds of cards long:
Mythic Rare
Sword+of+Fire+and+Ice Sword+of+Light+and+Shadow Linvala%2C+Keeper+of+Silence Blightsteel+Colossus Vengevine Sword+of+War+and+Peace Batterskull Thrun%2C+the+Last+Troll Vedalken+Shackles Tezzeret%2C+Agent+of+Bolas Ajani+VengeantThis list isn't bad at all. Sword of Light and Shadow and Sword of Fire and Ice were both printed in the last Modern Masters set, so there was no expectation that we'd see them again. Linvala, Keeper of Silence hasn't seen much play since the Birthing Pod banning, and I doubt that will change any time soon. Batterskull was a Grand Prix promo last year. WotC did a very good job on the mythics.
Of the cards on this list, Blightsteel Colossus, Vengevine, Thrun, and both of the planeswalkers have the highest upside. All of these cards are capable of becoming the cornerstone of the right deck, and all have spent time at $20 or more. I'm actively trading for all five of these cards.
Rare
Misty+Rainforest Scalding+Tarn Marsh+Flats Arid+Mesa Verdant+Catacombs Graven+Cairns Wooded+Bastion Cascade+Bluffs Fetid+Heath Flooded+Grove Mystic+Gate Twilight+Mire Sunken+Ruins Fire-Lit+Thicket Rugged+Prairie Damnation Azusa%2C+Lost+but+Seeking Horizon+Canopy Grove+of+the+Burnwillows Crucible+Of+Worlds Goblin+Guide Inkmoth+Nexus Sower+of+Temptation Aether+Vial Arcbound+Ravager Scapeshift Pact+of+Negation Auriok+Champion Serra+Ascendant Chalice+of+the+Void Ensnaring+Bridge Celestial+Colonnade Threads+of+Disloyalty Creeping+Tar+Pit Leonin+Shikari Flagstones+of+Trokair Mutavault Engineered+Explosives Infernal+Tutor Ghostway Bloodghast Ranger+of+Eos Goryo%27s+Vengeance Teferi%2C+Mage+of+Zhalfir Summoner%27s+Pact Through+the+Breach Slaughter+Pact Oblivion+Stone Blood+MoonPhew-I could keep listing Modern staples for hours! I wouldn't worry about Goblin Guide or the Zendikar fetchlands-I expect that we'll see them return in this fall's Battle for Zendikar. The Shadowmoor/Eventide filterlands are also going to show up again sooner or later.
Otherwise, there's a lot of upside on this list. Inkmoth Nexus is the easiest call, but people caught on to that one as soon as the full spoiler dropped, and the price is already through the roof. Blood Moon, Azusa, Lost But Seeking, Damnation, and Arcbound Ravager are also trending upward, and that's likely to continue. All of these cards are worth trading for at current retail, but if they go up significantly, I'll be selling into hype. The pendulum tends to swing too far to the other way when things like this happen, and people get worried that they'll be locked out of ever owning a card like Damnation or Crucible of Worlds. If someone tries to force a buyout, don't get caught up in the hype.
Uncommon
Aven+Mindcensor Inquisition+of+Kozilek Mishra%27s+Bauble Path+to+Exile Cursecatcher Choke Shattering+Spree Spell+Snare Might+of+Old+Krosa Dryad+Arbor Tolaria+West Ghostly+Prison Flames+of+the+Blood+Hand Merrow+Reejerey Summer+Bloom Ancient+Ziggurat Guttural+Response Kitchen+Finks Harmonic+Sliver Steelshaper%27s+Gift Congregation+at+Dawn Sylvan+Scrying Lightning+HelixThere are lots of cards here that should have been reprinted in Modern Masters 2015. We might see Inquisition of Kozilek in the fall and Mishra's Bauble is fairly new tech in Modern, but Aven Mindcensor and Might of Old Krosa should have been auto-includes at the very least. Might of Old Krosa is my favorite target on this list-Modern infect decks need it, and I don't see where they're going to reprint it anytime soon. It might be underpriced even at $7.49 retail.
Common
Serum+Visions Gitaxian+Probe Sleight+of+Hand Simian+Spirit+GuideGitaxian Probe isn't an awful miss since it's still just $3, but it's baffling that Serum Visions wasn't in MM2015. I suspect that we'll either see it in Magic: Origins or as the August FNM card. If not, then it's likely to be banned at some point soon. I'm only targeting this in trade if I end up needing it for a personal deck. Otherwise, I'm staying well away. Something just doesn't add up here, and I'm not going to throw my money at finding out what it is.
Overall, I'm not sure what to make of Modern Masters 2015. I'm glad that I have several boxes of the first Modern Masters set socked away because I think it's the better of the two expansions, and I expect prices to keep trending upward. I'm also glad that I've got a box of MM2015 pre-ordered, and I'm really excited about Grand Prix Las Vegas. I probably won't be buying more boxes of MM2015, though, and I know I'll end up playing in at least one or two brutal $30+ drafts where I end up with $2 worth of cards. It'll be worth it if I open a Tarmogoyf. It'll stink if I don't. And that, really, is Modern Masters 2015 in a nutshell."
---Chas Andres, StarCityGames.com
May 12, 2015 4:29 p.m.