Eternal Masters - EV discussion
Economics forum
Posted on May 25, 2016, 3:01 p.m. by Rayenous
As you may expect, there are a lot of people wondering, "Will it be worth it to buy a box/pack of Eternal Masters?".
With the spoilers available so far, I have started to look at the Pack-EV (Expected Value).
Assuming the usual 15-Mythic, 53-Rare, 80-Uncommon, 101 Common, I've created a spreadsheet to calculate the EV of packs.
I've based the value of cards from SCG, only due to the fact that they have been keeping up with pricing EMA cards as they are released.
I have filled in the unknown cards at the lowest rate I would expect a card of that rarity to be.
Mythis/Rare: $0.49 regular, $0.99 foil
Uncommon/Common: $0.15 regular, $0.99 foil
Currently, the calculations show an expected value of $13.60 Pack-EV ($326.33 Box-EV).
As I don't expect that all cards yet to be spoiled will be at the low 'space-holder' value, you can expect the value to be a fair bit higher... I'm estimating about $15 EV per pack.
Of course, this is giving value to cards which may have no 'return value' (i.e.: you'll never be able to sell/trade the card)... but that's a judgement call. - What I've calculated is more of a 'Technical EV'.
There's also the possibility that various cards will rapidly fall following printing. Especially the non-chase rares.
There's also the possibility that these spoilers are the best of the bunch and the rest will be increasingly mixed.
Furthermore I think you need to calculate a confidence interval around the EV to give a more accurate representation of the spread.
I've been working on the same but I plan to do a lot of analytical statistics.
A further metric that is interesting is seeing how it lowers the barrier of entry. This involves calculating EV based on the cheapest printing of a card. Doing it this way returns much lower numbers naturally.
So there are two drives. 1) How much will I make or lose? 2) Has it made the format more affordable?
Both are very different stats.
May 25, 2016 5:15 p.m.
Full spoil is up on Wizards site Link . It does look like there are a lot of bulk rares, and more than one comet storm type mythics sadly. Without doing the math Im guessing EV will be similar to MM2- 6-8$/pack. But again- there was no math and this is a guess based on deflated prices after release.
May 27, 2016 12:15 p.m.
Still missing some prices, but pack-EV is at $15.90
Doing an EV, giving anything worth less than $2 (as well as anything I don't have prices for) a $0 value (as you likely won't be able to get that value from those cards), ... pack EV is still $12.83
For values under $5 being set to $0 (thus excluding all commons, and nearly all uncommons), it's still $11.31.
As I'm still missing some info on the recently spoiled cards, I expect this to go up slightly.
May 27, 2016 12:44 p.m.
Full prices are in...
Pack-EV with all card values. = $17.54 (Box = $420)
- Looking at just the non-foil Rare/Mythic, EV = $11.81
Pack-EV, ignoring all cards under $2 = $13.66 (Box = $328)
- Looking at just the non-foil Rare/Mythic, EV = $11.48
Pack-EV, ignoring all cards under $5 = $11.73 (Box = $282)
- Looking at just the non-foil Rare/Mythic, EV = $10.76
This was with 'low-ball' guessing the foil values, even though a number of these cards will have high foil values due to it being their first foil printing.
May 27, 2016 3 p.m.
I like the idea of ignoring all the cards under 5$, now also change the value of anything from 5-10$ to 3$, and drop 10% of value off everything else. Any non chase card will just tank out value wise. The Chase will drop by 10-40% as well in almost every instance.
MM2 Examples: (No set indicated for same art)
MM1 Goyf before 190$ Now: 150$ loss of 24% -Noble Hierarch before 60$ Now: 45$ loss of 25% -Karn before: 40$ now 40$ Loss of 0% (woot!) -MM1 Dark Confidant Before 80$ Now 40$ Loss of 50% -Mox Opal before 55$ now 40$ loss of 28% - MM1 V cliq before 70$ now 35$ loss of 50% -
All of these losses were finished by the end of 2015, the year MM2015 came out (duh, only clarifying). Your EV is, well, WAY too high to use as a basis for investment. Apply the very realistic 30% loss to it and its looking more like 7$/pack- right in between the 6$-8$ range I guessed earlier. And unlike all of the cards listed above, a lot of the chase rares/mythics in EM are simply not demanded for as much. Modern has a much higher demand than legacy, and money EDH players (yeah edh is VERY popular, but the amount of people stuffing every available tutor and every best possible land, and every best etc is a marginal %). I actually expect the non legacy legal cards to fall even harder than 30% (looking at you, Mana Crypt) to have an even more harsh drop than the trending 25% like the above mythics.
The price of cards like Mana Crypt are held up not by the Demand side of the equation, but by the supply end. There are only 30 media promo mana crypts on all of TCGplayer (the other printing had fewer).
Rayenous says... #2
I should also point out that I expect the value of some of the more 'chase' Rares (Force of Will/Wasteland/Mana Crypt) to go up over time, just as cards like Tarmogoyf did after Modern Masters. - The limited distribution of this set, as well as a new focus on these Eternal Formats will likely drive demand higher than supply.
May 25, 2016 3:04 p.m.