Fetches not as stable or good spec as we thought?
Economics forum
Posted on July 31, 2016, 11:59 p.m. by DivineGrace
Hey just want some good discussion on why or why not khans fetches may not be a good stable or good spec...
Every khan fetch are trending downward in price.
I for one have been amassing fetches as I can, only at a good low tcg price when possible, and realize i may stop amassing and that these fetches may or may not go up in value.
Any one feel the same?I feel khans have been printed to oblivion and those who wants fetches have them already.
Any thoughts or feedback?
Renember the ONS price pre-reprint? Khans fetches will get close to that number before they see a reprint.
It's like stocks, you put down your money, now you need to sit on it.
August 1, 2016 12:37 a.m.
no one has really given a convincing reason WHY fetches should rise.
In essence speculating on fetches is based on two factors:
- their low supply
- their necessity in almost all competitive modern, legacy and vintage decks
However more recently we have repeatedly seen poor returns on investment for rares because the first factor is no longer true. Rare cards are not in low supply. It is certainly true that they are still necessary but the problem comes that there are so many available at a low price there is no buyer pressure to seek out more expensive copies.
Will this change? Probably. But at the end of the day I just don't think speculating on rares is as economically sound as it once was.
August 1, 2016 12:42 p.m.
I've been waiting a long time for those shocklands to rise.
August 1, 2016 3:09 p.m.
It took years for ONS and ZEN fetches to hit sky-high prices. When they cycled out of Standard and there was no Modern, ZEN fetches sat at around $5~20. ONS fetches were under $20 for a long time, and Polluted Deltas took several years to go beyond $50.
I think a major factor has been Eternal Masters not attracting a lot of people to Legacy and Modern Masters II not attracting a lot of people into Modern.
EMA lowered the price of mono-color decks, but reserved list cards all went up. It's cheaper to play decks like Burn or D&T, but those don't really use fetches.
Likewise, MM2 didn't print enough commons and uncommons that people need to break into the format. I think people are willing to drop the cash on rares and mythics to buy into the format (which means fetch lands), but they really don't want to spend $5+ on commons and uncommons (like Mishra's Bauble, Inquisition of Kozilek, or Serum Visions) that can be reprinted tomorrow.
If and when we get something more like the first Modern Masters, or something crazy like the elimination of the reserve list/a new format/Extended brought back from the dead, the demand for fetchlands could skyrocket as newer players enter older formats. There's already a lot of complaints over Standard's prices and lack of diversity. We could see a mass exodus of players leaving to other formats.
Really, I think fetchlands are a waiting game that eventually will pay off. However, if you invest in them now, the time it would take to see returns might have been better spent on other cards. It's much better to spend $100 now, make $200 within the next 3 months, than it would be to sit trying to make a $500 within the next 3 years.
Servo_Token says... #2
Alright, so there's several comments that I want to make here. I hope that I don't give off too harsh a tone here, but I feel like this thread doesn't need to exist as the answers that you are looking for are common knowledge.
First off, the fetches haven't been on a downward trend, they're fairly stable and have been since they leveled out around January.
Second, It's common knowledge that fetch lands are one of the best pickups ever in terms of specing, especially on standard printings of cards. Everyone needs fetch lands, there's no reason for them to ever go down in price.
Third, Based on the prices of the original zendikar fetches pre-khans printing, these are a thing that people are willing to pay money for should they feel the need to. Magic is only getting more popular. Therefore, more people are going to be willing to pay for fetches in the future.
Fourth, Khans fetches, while printed quite a bit, weren't printed "Into oblivion". They were printed a standard amount of times. This is more just that I have a problem with people over exaggerating and the phrase "_ into oblivion" is the most ridiculous thing i've heard since I heard that Donald Trump is running for American President.
Fifth, I would rather invest into khans fetches than silver right now, that's how rock solid they are.
August 1, 2016 12:08 a.m.