Flip or Hold: Karn, Scion of Urza
Economics forum
Posted on April 22, 2018, 12:30 p.m. by AgentGreen
Right now the price on MTG goldfish is at $44 and the trend seems to be going upwards. Any suggestions, flip it or hold on to it?
TheAnnihilator says... #3
Sell. Mythics from new sets are always at their height on release -- especially planeswalkers. Karn is good, but he's definitely not $40+ good.
April 23, 2018 9:07 a.m.
Oloro_Magic says... #4
I think this Karn is difficult to evaluate for a few reasons; though I will preface by saying I believe holding is the safer option.
Let's get it out of the way first, Karn is good, he is very good. This comment comes as an evaluation of Karn though as a standalone card. In my opinion the 5 loyalty really makes him, that is the closest a planeswalker card comes to being "above curve." All his abilities are relevant, sure he lacks the "i win" quality of his big brother but he is still an amazing card.
The problem I see with Karn is where he fits (I don't care about standard for this argument seeing how I'm more concerned with long-term value). The only deck i see Karn immediately slotting into is Ravager Shops in vintage and Lord knows there are not enough vintage players to sustain value of a non-reserved list card. Outside of this one deck Karn is a bit difficult to place, I don't see him seeing any play in Legacy there really isn't anything to support him well enough and you already have better options. In modern there are two/three shells I see him maybe fitting. First would be control, the problem here is that the effect you are getting from Karn in a control deck is accomplished better by Jace, sure Karn may be a one-of but even then there are better things to be playing. X-Tron is another place he could show up, something low curve for traditional tron maybe, or a bit of extra filtering for E-Tron as it struggles in that regard. Here though he seems a bit surplus, like an include for the sake of including as opposed to an actual important card. Perhaps the most interesting home for Karn would be in a Tezzerator type deck as another way to win the game, his abilities are surprisingly relevant, allowing you to filter for the game ending thopter-sword combo, or other important pieces, and then the nature of the deck itself lends to Karn's -2 being relevant. The problem I see here is that that type of deck is not really played all too much and I'm not sure Karn is enough to push it over the top, I could be wrong though.
Basically, he is a powerful card, but in the short term it seems he is going tos struggle to find a home.
April 23, 2018 9:56 a.m.
TheAnnihilator says... #5
Oloro_Magic If he's going to drop short term, then why not sell now and rebuy when low enough? Admittedly, I feel like he'll just hover around the $10-15 range in Standard and then ~$7 after he rotates, with the other decent 4-mana walkers like Nahiri, the Harbinger, Ajani Vengeant, Garruk Relentless
Flip, Garruk Wildspeaker, etc.
April 23, 2018 11:04 a.m. Edited.
Oloro_Magic says... #6
I think Karn is harder to evaluate than those walkers you name, with the exception of Nahiri the others are quite frankly fringe in competitive play, Ajani Vengeant however does certainly see some play. With that said I believe you could be right if Karn doesn't see play and find a home however the thing with Karn is his flexibility means there is more room for experimentation and considering that I believe he may be worth holding onto.
April 23, 2018 11:13 a.m.
buckeyetron says... #7
Oloro_Magic how is karn good? not all of his abilities are relevant, and he's pretty slow at getting you the card you need. at best you tap out for him turn 4 and then get the card you actually want by turn 5, if the opponent hasn't just attacked and killed him by then.
April 23, 2018 11:16 a.m.
TheAnnihilator says... #8
Nahiri, Ajani, and Wildspeaker all see quite a bit of competitive play, Wildspeaker and Nahiri usually as 4-ofs in their decks. Karn isn't as powerful as them, even if he is more universal. In my opinion, he'll sit around the same price as them unless he finds a home. Even then, there has to be demand from other decks that would be interested in a 4 mana sorcery and wouldn't just play JtMS , Nahiri, Garruk, Chandra, Torch of Defiance, Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas, etc. Karn has a lot of competition, so he'd probably only be played in colorless decks.
April 23, 2018 11:26 a.m.
I think Karn will slot into any kind of low-curve artifacts deck with Tezzeret probably. I disagree about getting the card you want by turn 5, because if I'm shooting for Karn's -2 ability on the turn he enters, I could easily be looking at quite the high powered construct depending on the build. In standard, I am working through how to break him. So far I have stuck with / because it seems to fit the most. But lower costed vehicle decks w/ Bomat and Scavenger may be the correct way to go ultimately. See here for the latest that emphasizes a lot more disruption and less artifacts: Karn, Disrupted.
April 23, 2018 1:51 p.m.
AgentGreen says... #10
Right now he's still hovering around $44.
But if he starts sliding I may flip him ASAP
buckeyetron says... #2
AgentGreen & Catalog9000 the price on the new karn is pure hype from people going "ooh looky new karn. old karn is sweet maybe new karn will be good". i'm REALLY confused how you could possibly say "dominaria looks like a fast set, so this slow card should be really good". because thats what new karn is. slow. you tap out on turn 4 to put a card of an opponents choice into your hand? at 4 mana, he absolutely does not fit in aggro. aggro would want to play a game ending creature turn 4. not something that "might" get a card they need into their hand turn 5. if you really need a cantrip in your deck, add blue and play Opt
honestly man, i would STRONGLY recommend selling them now, while people are still figuring out whats good or not. because i guarantee the price will drop. the longer you hold onto it, the more packs that will be opened, the more copies that will be pulled, and higher supply means lower prices. not to mention the lowering demand as people realize it isn't what they hoped. and when it rotates out of standard it won't be worth anything at all.
April 22, 2018 10:04 p.m.