Forever Losing Value
Economics forum
Posted on Nov. 7, 2014, 1:08 a.m. by Femme_Fatale
I've noticed something about the value of my card collection (currently a work in progress) . Within 1 month I've lost ~$50-$100 value on my cards in the mid section, and that isn't even with any of my uncommons I have in storage. I'm guessing it is all of my bulk rares, and junk commons and uncommons that are losing a cent each day, but that REALLY adds up. Everyday I notice at least $1 decrease, sometimes $5 or even rarely, $10 chopped off of my collection's total value. And it is kinda depressing, knowing that no matter how much I spend, I'll always be losing card value. In fact, the only significant cards I've seen that have gone up slowly are Thoughtseize, Polukranos, Word Eater, Steam Vents, Lightning Bolt and Serum Visions. Everything else has just been decreasing.
It might be something for everyone to think about here. Don't hold on to all those junk cards you know you're not going to play. Get rid of them for some stable value, otherwise they'll just end up decreasing each day ... like mine x.x
Death_The_Kid says... #3
Do we have a thread for sadness? i relate to this. I hold cards I have faith in then i get mad at the card itself for not doing well enough to be loved. I am keeping three Hushwing Gryff in my binder because I SWEAR they will be at least 5 bucks each soon.
November 7, 2014 2:11 a.m.
Well also keep in mind that we're not currently on a constructed PTQ format cycle, so that keeps demand down and prices slide because of it. For the same reason, everything Modern playable got inflated during the last year or so with the GP and PTQ schedule, so many of those prices are stabilizing - in addition to the recent Standard rotation. A lot of prices will slipping during this time, that's not uncommon, but that doesn't mean they are all going to slowly tank either.
Instead of dumping cards into the valley, try to hold on to stuff you know will be worth more in the long run. I've been actively trading for a lot of the dollar RTR rares. Granted, there are some cards you absolutely want to bail on since they are never going to be higher than right then.
November 7, 2014 2:12 a.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #5
That could explain my constant decrease in value for every single card I have Slycne. Decrease in modern value all around as cards are going back on sale. Still depressing that I lost about $100 worth of value in my cards because of all this.
November 7, 2014 3:39 a.m.
Something quite interesting has happened though which is that whilst the cost of modern has slowly decreased for a lot of staples the overall value of modern has got a lot higher with the addition of 5 new fetchlands.
November 7, 2014 3:47 a.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #7
I think you mean the overall appeal to invest in modern ChiefBell. From RTR straight to KTK, it is really easy for a lot of people to get into modern now. When KTK rotates out, expect an even greater influx of modern players.
I need to start hoarding shocks and fetches. Then see if I can get my hands on some foil Treasure Cruises for legacy value, and search for some Dig Through Times for modern combo/control value. Finally, Thoughtseize.
I just wanna chuck my Goblin Rabblemasters. The rest I'm happy with letting be.
Also, I just noticed that yeago did an update that removed the automatic spacing after a TO square bracket link code. Best update ever.
November 7, 2014 3:57 a.m.
I kind of liked that extra space. It was tappedouts weird quirk that made it special.
No I meant that if you add up the cost of obtaining every modern staple it's gone up. The prices of existing staples has gone slightly down (a little) but five new cards have been added. So like I said, the overall value of all the modern staples added up has risen.
November 7, 2014 6:43 a.m.
Abrupt decay, anger of the gods, scavenging ooze and thoughtseize have all recently been reprinted in standard. I'm sitting on my lilianas waiting for them to slowly climb as people try to finish their gb decks.
I don't think standard has added much else. The fetches don't make a deck on their own. Neither do shocks. Treasure cruise is dirt cheap. Dig isn't too pricy either. I guess all of these would explain the sudden influx of izzet delver players. That deck is cheap as chips (in the us you call them fries) and used to be hard to play but with the counterspells being increasingly replaced with more cantrips it's become kind of scrubby too! I have very little respect for the new era of delver.
I do think the biggest impact reprint is thoughtseize. In terms of actual affordability.
November 7, 2014 6:49 a.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #10
I would have to say fetch reprint in terms of affordability. I mean, the ally fetches went down faster than a rock in a bucket of water. They also brought down all the other fetches too, which is awesome.
November 7, 2014 6:54 a.m.
They did bring down the others but not by much. These fetches though you have to remember; as far as modern is concerned they're not reprints.
November 7, 2014 7:18 a.m.
I wouldn't get too excited about foil digs and treasure cruises for the eternal (including modern here) as they are currently doing rather TOO well, and banhammer could appear at some point, i read a very interesting article on SCG yesterday pointing out what was happening with them that i can completely understand
November 7, 2014 7:40 a.m.
They haven't done overly well at professional level events though (mainly because there have been few). My knowledge is mostly modern though.
November 7, 2014 8:42 a.m.
You can make an argument for banning Treasure Cruise, since it fits into so many decks and is so easy to turn into a sorcery speed Ancestral Recall. Dig Through Time, however, is a tougher sell. The effect is more powerful, but the 
requirement keeps it from being shoved into every deck. I would be disappointed if they ban both of them.
November 7, 2014 8:56 a.m.
Yeh but they won't because they cause interesting games with Snapcaster Mage and they're relatively weak in the early game, making them not all-encompassingly (not a real word) powerful. Many people actually make the argument that you'd rather leave things in your graveyard to keep Snapcaster Mage happy than draw extra cards simply because you can only include 4 copies of a card. If you've used 2 or 3 then your chances of drawing into another with Treasure Cruise is low, but with Snapcaster Mage then the more you use the more likely you are to be able to use him as copies 5-8. There's a really interesting dynamic there. They're also really painful to have countered. The other problem is the fact that you want to include 4 because you want to see at least one copy per game, but most decks cant support exiling 28 cards from their graveyard, making the occasional copy a completely dead card. Also sorcery speed draw is actually a big deal for a lot of decks - what I mean is that you really don't want it as much as instant.
Yeh they're both fantastic cards but they're not screwing everything up. They've been high impact in decks that want to quickly empty and refill their hand like burn and delver. These are silly aggro decks anyway and once the meta has stabilised they'll diminish in popularity. They've had a smaller but still noticeable impact in other slower decks but no where near to the same extent. They're not so broken that they've caused their own archetypes - they've only adjusted existing ones. If we suddenly saw every deck archetype splashing blue then we'd have a problem. That hasn't happened though.
November 7, 2014 9:31 a.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #16
Thoughtseize used to be a $60+ card. That more decks want than want fetches. :/
KTK has very little long term value.
Also beyond the stuff people pointed out, look at what time of year it is. People are out of work and using every penny they have to pay light bills and buy christmas gifts. Stuff always gets dirt cheap this time of year!!! :D
Besides... drops in prices or not they're still higher than they were last year at this time and come next modern season prices will jump even higher. Who else remembers Misty Rainforest hitting 100$ each? or when Remand & Serum Visions spiked in pirce...
November 7, 2014 10:10 a.m.
The ktk fetchlands will be good long term value. Apart from that there's not much else.
November 7, 2014 10:26 a.m.
CrazyLittleGuy says... #18
@ChiefBell I don't understand how anyone can still be arguing that Treasure Cruise and to a lesser extent Dig Through Time are "not so broken." I would conclude that you either haven't been playing non-Standard formats recently or just cashed in on a UR Delver deck and want to reassure yourself that your investment is safe. Broken cards don't have to create their own archetype, they usually just destroy others. Remember how attrition was actually a thing? Me too.
There really isn't a choice between Snapcaster Mage and Treasure Cruise. You don't have to tank on that one. I can guarantee you that casting Ancestral Recall is more powerful than a four mana Remand.
"If we suddenly saw every deck archetype splashing blue then we'd have a problem. That hasn't happened though." You're right. The decks without blue aren't splashing blue. Several of them are just dead now.
Either way this probably isn't the right thread to have this discussion.
November 7, 2014 10:38 a.m.
PreZchoICE1 says... #19
when I returned to the game I dug half of my more 'modern' collection out of storage and seperated the eternal staples from the rest. The rest I sold/traded off immediately for shocks, planeswalkers, 1 commander deck, a box of theros and a box of khans.
November 7, 2014 10:55 a.m.
if you want to make sure your collection doesnt consistently lose value, you should avoid standard.
however, if you like standard here a few tips that have helped me maintain or grow value consistently.
anytime you're offered 1 card for 3+ cards that equal its value (within the same format)... take the trade. regardless if you need the higher value card
anytime you can trade cards 1 for 1 standard or standard/modern for a card that sees play in legacy/modern take the trade
anytime you can pick up shocklands, abrupt decay, fetch lands, dual lands... take the trade...especially if trading more than 2 cards for 1. They are easily movable.
anytime you can trade bulk cards 3+ for 1 take the trade.
example...someone starts pulling out 10-15 standard cards worth .50-2.00 from your binder totally 20.. ..give it to them for the 15.00 polluted delta and 2.00 gitaxian probe... it will end up being 20-25.00 in your favor over the next few years.
November 7, 2014 11:46 a.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #21
If you look at my collection xzavierx, 95% of my collection isn't standard legal.
November 7, 2014 2:20 p.m.
I have to say I disagree with the 'avoid standard' comments around. Don't avoid it, but don't hold on to it long term either. Shortly before rotation, it's best to drop most of the 'standard staples' that won't see play. Either then or right at release. If no one is buying them (locally), buylist them (sell them to a but list).
But around this time, collections seem to dip. It's the market flooding with people selling to get money for the holiday season coming up and demand is really low as people either have their decks and settled and getting ready for their own holiday season and just not brewing, preparing for anything. Going to GP Denver, the first big event after the holidays, it's standard and if I was going (not), I would take the deck I already have and play.
I tend to pick up my modern stuff around this time. cause the prices are just right and lowest they will be. Early in the next year, spring time, you'll should see a rebound. But this is iffy this year, because we do not know how all this will play out due to the changes of the PTQ system. With PPTQ's being store decided format, modern may not be as big as before or it may not change. PTQ's will be the format of the PT they are for and there is only one modern PT next year. The PTQ is also invite only. None of this guarantees a 'modern season'. Cause there is none listed like previous years on wotc sites. The PPTQ's start in january/feb and we'll have a standard season though, but the last one of these 'seasons'.
This will be one of the problem going forward, for finances, no set 'season' for any given format, demand periods will change. If more PPTQ's are standard or sealed, less demand for modern.
Another problem we are facing is reprints. Nothing is truly safe but the reserved list. Everything is being reprinted. Those Chromatic Lanterns you have stocked for edh players, should be reprinted in a commander product. We have a summer supplemental product due to be released, we know nothing about, but is speculated to be Modern Masters 2. Don't let the numbers on MMA fool you, we do not know how they will print this, will it be limited:? Conspiracy wasn't and brought a ton of reprints with it. Being the limited print run MMA was is why money cards didn't get devalued and this was a test run in the reprinting of money/staples for such a set. The next modern master set is questionable, I personally, want to see what they learned from MMA, Conspiracy and Chronicles and what it will look like, print/distribution wise.
At this point, if you're in this to make money, the long term bets aren't as safe anymore, unless dealing with reserved/high end product. Flipping as soon at it peaks, seems to be the reasonable strategy for cards not on the reserved list. If you're collecting for sentimental reasons and just like to look at the value of your collection, be prepared for lots of ups and downs. These last bits can change, when/if wotc changes it's methods.
I highly recommend quiet speculation to people who are in this for the money. Very good advice to listen to and numbers from experiments the author have done (with their own money) and plenty of people who make a living off just selling/buying cards.
November 7, 2014 2:25 p.m.
PreZchoICE1 says... #23
my question is why do you track your really low end commons/uncommons?
November 7, 2014 2:35 p.m.
I forgot to add that SCG has picked up modern as is adding it to their opens, so this should hold up demand for it. But again, spring should be the time of the rebound. Last Feb/March we saw the spikes in duals and other legacy cards (though jan had a couple spikes also) start to rise. The same time fetches started to hit 100$ in modern and so on. But I attribute a lot of modern's spike to the PTQ season starting in june. That is because the PT had just been modern, gp richmond happened also. It gave time for players to brew and practice with decks before the ptq season.
But anyways, SCG Opens will hold/help prices and we'll see how that affects modern also.
November 7, 2014 2:38 p.m.
Didgeridooda says... #25
Many are also looking to sell. With prices high, people are trying to off load at a good price.
November 7, 2014 3:11 p.m.
Xzavierx, that's exactly what I've been doing lately. I'm admittedly a pack whore, I have to bust a box a week to feed my addiction and with all the standard junk I don't want (or don't see holding value), I can usually find someone with a foil something that's played in modren that will trade for a bunch of "little" cards. So far since Khans was released I've traded junk into a FOIL Griselbrand a FOIL Scalding Tarn a FOIL Steam Vents a FOIL Polluted Delta and a FOIL Windswept Heath. Typically I'll offer 10-15% extra value but in the end I think I'll be gaining value and be able to keep trading up into better and better cards.
VampireArmy says... #2
never hold onto standard staples unless they see play before they rotate...
November 7, 2014 1:29 a.m.