Future of the Reprint Policy.
Economics forum
Posted on Jan. 2, 2014, 11:32 a.m. by gufymike
I didn't find the other threads concerning this, but I want to share this with everyone here. Just to share with those who don't know/understand/wondering about the status of it. This is where we stand currently:
http://markrosewater.tumblr.com/post/71896201448/who-do-we-bother-about-getting-the-reprint-policy
Gidgetimer may I point you here, "Reserved cards will never be printed again in a functionally identical form." The assumption must be made that this will not change if the reserved list is never going to change.
January 2, 2014 11:43 a.m.
Gidgetimer says... #4
Oh my mistake. I thought that the reserve list was just "these cards will not be reprinted" I never actually bothered with reading it since it is a very silly thing in my opinion. So I guess my 2 cents would be let the collectors keep the part about not being able to reprint those specific cards but let players have functional reprints because $400+ for a card you are going to play with is bordering on insanity. Heck I think that anything over $20 is crazy to play with but then I have bills to pay and don't make money off of playing magic.
January 2, 2014 11:49 a.m.
As long as Mark Rosewater is in charge, the Reprint Policy won't change. He's never said a thing to indicate anything else. And when Mark Rosewater eventually leaves his position, you can bet he'll be replaced with someone he can trust and has been working with for a long time.
The Reprint Policy is what helps separate Magic from other, lesser card games and keep it on top.
January 2, 2014 12:33 p.m.
Gidgetimer says... #6
I didn't realize that creating an artificially high barrier to entry into eternal formats to appease collectors was what separated Magic from other card games. I thought it was a variety of formats with support for each, a variety of mechanics, and the easy to learn / hard to master dichotomy that is the hallmark of all good games. I guess that shows what I know.
January 2, 2014 12:42 p.m.
sigh
So you're one of those guys?
Well, clearly, nothing I say can win.
unsubscribes
January 2, 2014 12:43 p.m.
Also, Maro isn't in charge, per se. He's Head Designer, sure, but there are more departments, and more people in charge. He's just the face of MtG for most players.
Pretty sure Maro isn't in charge of this decision, either. Seems more like a development thing. Even if he were in charge, like zandl said, he's not going to support the decision to remove the reserve list.
January 2, 2014 12:45 p.m.
Gidgetimer says... #9
I'm not sure what those guys are so I may or may not be. Well reasoned and insightful arguments could have changed my mind but to me the reserve list is something for collectors and what keeps a game alive is players.
Players are attracted to the things I mentioned, I don't think that any player wants to win just because their opponent couldn't afford or couldn't find a card. And I'm sure as hell not a "boohoo your deck beat me because it cost more" guys, I just personally wouldn't be satisfied if I was running a creature based deck and an opponent played Magus of the Tabernacle
and had to sacrifice it allowing me to win the turn before I should have been dead when I know he would have much rather run The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale
.
It is sad though that you unsubscribed instead of trying to form a stimulating argument though. :(
January 2, 2014 12:55 p.m.
Gidgetimer says... #10
Am I the only one who read the tumblr response or does everyone except me think that he is lying to the community just to stay in the good grace of people he will never meet and who aren't going to quit playing over "the reprint policy is not changing period" instead of what he said which was "I do not believe it can be undone. Trust me, I and many others tried for years. I think people need to accept it as an unchangeable thing."
January 2, 2014 12:59 p.m.
The reserve list is actually a good thing for people who hold stock like.... oh you know.... shops.
There's no stimulating argument to have here. It's not about players per se. It's about those who have invested most in the game - and that's those who try to make a living out of it ie - professionals gamers and commercial outlets (like shops). The problem is that if a reprint were to happen the price would crash and yesterdays stock that was earning them $$$$$$ would then be worth only $$ and that means the shop or individual makes a net loss overall. They get poor and can't play anymore or sustain themselves and then stop. Then wizards have put a company or highly invested individual into debt. Bad.
That was a gross over exaggeration but largely how it works.
January 2, 2014 1:01 p.m.
Also you have to realise that wizards don't care about how many people play legacy or vintage - they care about selling booster packs (which is basically standard play only). The reason for this is that wizards makes no money from the sale of secondhand cards but they do make money from boosters. In order to sell large amounts of boosters they have to keep shops happy (and buying large amounts of boxes). In order to keep shops happy they need to make sure that old stock is worth money, so that the shops stay in business. In order to do that they make the reserve list. etc etc.
If there was no reserve list then the price of old cards would plummet. Shops that paid $200 for a card would no longer be able to sell it for profit and they'd go out of business in the worst case scenario. In the best case scenarion they're still pissed off and view Magic as an unstable asset. Protip - you don't invest in unstable assets.
January 2, 2014 1:07 p.m.
Gidgetimer says... #13
I see your argument about shops that have the cards in stock, however I don't see how professional players who make their money off of sponsorships and winning tournaments against other professional players are going to care at all about the price of the cards.
Having said that I will address the argument about card shops. I would figure that on average a card shop would move maybe 1 $150 card per week (I'm being very generous here IMO). Figuring half of that as profit that is $75/week off of the reserve list. Now if they were to make "reserve list masters" at MSRP of $10 I guarantee that People would buy them at $20 without batting an eye, and stores could sell 100 packs a week easy. So stores could make $1000/week for lets say 3 months off of just markup above and beyond what MSRP is. I think that $12000 could cushion a smart business man against the profit loss off of reserve list cards for long enough that he can come up with a new strategy.
January 2, 2014 1:24 p.m.
Your estimate regarding card shops is wrong. The bigger stores regularly move power 9. I'm in direct contact with the largest retailer of Magic cards in the UK (through a friend who's a professional player). When they go to opens they regularly make thousands in a few days.
January 2, 2014 1:28 p.m.
Gidgetimer says... #15
By a new strategy I mean not paying people $200 for a now $10 card not "sell other product" how I'm sure it will be construed.
January 2, 2014 1:29 p.m.
I think you also have to remember that there are people infinitely richer than you can ever imagine (just going by your description of your situation - no offence intended, of course) who play this game. I have two friends who make over $200,000 / year and they're both 21. How they do this isn't relevant for now. The point of the matter is that they both have cubes which include the power 9 and other absurdly powerful, absurdly expensive cards. The shops DO sell those kinds of things and they are in heavy circulation. People do buy them (in fact, they buy them a lot) and there are many who won't even bat an eyelid at spending $100 on a card. It's trivial.
January 2, 2014 1:34 p.m.
Gidgetimer says... #17
I was talking LGS, If you scale up moving expensive product you also have to scale up moving less expensive product. I may well be horribly off target and I grant that you apparently know more about the retail end than I do. But I don't see how keeping the store happy follows that they will buy more product. More players buying product ,means stores moving more product, means stores ordering more product from wizards. Please correct me if I am wrong but I don't see how a smart retailer buys more than they can sell because they are happy or buys less than they can sell because they are unhappy.
January 2, 2014 1:37 p.m.
Gidgetimer says... #18
Meh $200k is well within my capability to imagine once you get to over a million it would blow my mind but not wanting to pay $100 for a piece of cardboard is just something in my nature. Even If I were making $500k+ I would find it silly to pay that much for paper.
January 2, 2014 1:40 p.m.
NobodyPicksBulbasaur says... #19
I believe the argument here is that people will spend much more at a shop on booster packs trying to get a dual land than they would have spent on the land in the first place. Every extra $4 in your pocket could be a dual. Shops make more at once on sales of older cards, but most of their profit comes from sealed product.
This may not be the case at the giant internet retailers, but I can tell you for certain that my LGS lives and dies by its booster sales.
If a shop loses $30 on each of its duals, for a net loss of, let's say $1000, but then makes $1500 in extra booster pack sales, then they still come out ahead.
Not saying that it's the only argument, or that the economics behind it are even close to valid, but if you're the type that needs to debate, then this is a point you can't just ignore.
January 2, 2014 1:44 p.m.
I can't comment on relative profits made in boosters versus singles because that's something I don't know about.
I think it really comes down to increasing store loyalty. If stores feel like they can't trust wizards to preserve the value of their old stock they'll just stop buying in any stock. It seems fairly simple. It's not so much about relative profits it's more a case of the store thinking, 'Wizards have screwed me over, I've lost a lot of money, I don't want to stock their product anymore'.
January 2, 2014 1:48 p.m.
Gidgetimer says... #21
Thank you for putting it so eloquently NobodyPicksBulbasaur sometimes I talk around a point without ever actually stating it. I think that booster sales of some sort of product that contained the reserve list. Distributed exclusively through partnered locations could more than make up for the profit loss on the current singles. And make Wizards some money off of people wanting them too so it win-win.
January 2, 2014 1:52 p.m.
I agree that it's a possibility in the short term. However, the reserve list is a long term solution. The booster idea would work for a few months. The reserve list will work forever.
January 2, 2014 1:53 p.m.
I thought MaRo has publicly stated that he wished the Reserve List didn't exist?
IMO, the list is largely unnecessary. There are entire sets on the list. The only things that should exist on the reserve list are cards that are just too powerful to ever be reprinted (i.e. Power 9) and cards that do things that no longer fit the color pie.
Oh, and zandl, you can't get away that easy :P
January 2, 2014 2:01 p.m.
Gidgetimer says... #24
I respect your opinion but you have not said anything to convince me that mine is wrong. This isn't a cut and dry situation, more players buying cards at reduced prices can be just as much profit as a few buying at higher prices. If Mox Emerald went from $600 to $20 overnight anyone holding one in stock would lose $580 combined profit and investment. If those stores got carried through on booster sales for a few months and then moved them 30x as fast (not unreasonable with that big of a drop) Is anyone really out any profit at all.
January 2, 2014 2:03 p.m.
Firstly - yes the players are out of profit (those who had the original). But we're not discussing them so much.
Secondly - yes the shop is too, because whilst it will move stock 30x as fast initially, this rate will slow down over time. After two or three years (completely made up number) when people aren't buying them in a frenzy anymore then rate of purchase will fall and ultimately the shop will lose out.
If we imagine it mathematically, it becomes clear that as this rate falls off over time you're left with a lower price ceiling (because the card has devalued) and all you've done is create an artificial rate increase for a short period of time but then a big period of low purchase rate in the future. I'm not convinced that this method is worth the massive price hit. We could get someone to graph it out and do the maths using integration of normal distribution curves but it's too much effort for me (given that I'm not an economist).
The question therefore stands - is it better to sell a few things at an absurdly high price forever. OR - a lot at a low price that then falls off into a little at a low price in the future.
January 2, 2014 2:12 p.m.
Talking a modern masters solution for cards on the reserved list is not the best of ideas, because at the end of the day, it'll do more to make the rich richer and the poor stay poor. Guesstimating based on MM prices of 11-12$ a booster, the kind that would have these cards would be 20-25$ a booster. MM was priced out of range for a lot of people who buy a lot of boosters in the 4$ range. Doing this would do the same for them and more. It would not help legacy or vintage thrive with new players. Mainly because those who could afford the boosters for this should already have the decks they want to play in legacy already. It wouldn't devalue anything existing, but it wouldn't help the market have a surplus of them at affordable prices.
There is no way to make those cards affordable, plentiful and maintain the stability of singles prices for those that exist. This is a collectible game, but the collect-ability doesn't help on the price on older printings. As reprints appear of older cards, the original versions fall slightly as newer art, foil, availability and/or borders attract people more than the age of the card, in some case rising them above older cards. Examples, include Maze of Ith , Counterspell (unlimited ones are cheaper than the jace vs chandra ones), and Sylvan Library (even if with a 5th ed one), the commander one is the most expensive and would be still.
With different rules in place, it's easier to keep newer cards in nm/m condition compared to the time when most of the cards on the list were printed. Back before 96/7 you couldn't play a tournament (or most LGS's, since they did tourny rules as house rules) with sleeves, this is why so many are in lp or worse conditions. This would also affect the price of the newer cards and the older cards. While the damaged older ones would become plentiful, it wouldn't be so much the price drops significantly.
All you're saying you're asking for is 'tease and abuse me'.
January 2, 2014 2:21 p.m.
Gidgetimer Problem is that what you're suggesting is the reason for the reserved list in the first place. Store's inventory and stock got so devalued with 4th, 5th and chronicles that wizards needed to implement this policy to maintain the belief and strength in the brand. A lot of stores went out of business due to drops like that because of the mass reprints. Booster sales didn't help them, at 3-4$ a pop, even with a LARGE printing and availability through those shops.
January 2, 2014 2:26 p.m.
I would like to add that in addition to the drop, loss of profit, they also lose the investment in acquiring these cards. So, for example, a 600$ mox, they paid 400$ out of pocket probably to attain it. They are automatically losing 380$ if it dropped to 20$. That's 380 liquid that they could have used to put into something else, like pay bills or rent to keep the shop going. Let's not talk about the other 200$.
January 2, 2014 2:30 p.m.
If every store kept hundreds of copies of, say, Mox Sapphire then I understand your argument, ChiefBell. However, if a store has any in stock, they have 1, maybe 2, max. Even then, I doubt the future of the shop depends on those cards being sold at their current price. The shops would lose out on their initial investment, but would mostly likely not go out of business unless they took out a bank loan, used the card as collateral, and planned to sell the card to pay the loan off.
Investments, by nature, are risky because you make them based on the current market and future projections. Changes in that market determine if you made a good or a bad investment. That's just how they work.
January 2, 2014 2:38 p.m.
The only reason boosters are sold at the volume they are though, is the knowledge that the value of cards contained in them will likely be at or above what was paid for the pack on the secondary market.
There are card games that basically reprinted everything, all the time. Most of them don't exist any more, and the one or two that do, the cards are pretty close to valueless.
I honestly do feel though, that Magic in particular, if it set a -reasonable- hard limit on secondary market value, would keep enough people who now bought more sealed product because the cards they wanted were in booster packs, than they'd lose from collectors who treat their old Magic cards like actual stocks and bonds (which is incredibly foolish) A limit like "If a card stays over 50 dollars for more than 2 months, we'll reprint it at rare/mythic rare in the next appropriate set" would probably be fine.
That said, I completely understand why the Reserve List exists, and what purpose it serves. I've seen it on micro and macro scales in well-run games all over the place. Once you allow an investment and speculation economy to exist, and support it at all, you're stuck supporting it forever.
WotC (mostly Hasbro) doesn't give two shits about Legacy or Vintage though. They know better from a design and balance standpoint to -never- reprint full-on duals, or power-9 level cards where they can be in standard, and don't nearly give enough of a shit to increase the play volumes of Legacy or Vintage to make Legacy or Vintage Masters in paper magic. It would NUKE the secondary market, and there would be players, investors, and LGS owners beating down the doors of WOTC if they ever did.
While LGSs may do a very large volume in packs and boxes, I think you underestimate how much activity the singles case/binders get. If I spend a day at my LGS (one of the biggest in the country) I'll probably see ten or twenty times the cash change hands in singles than in sealed product, and the margins are much better.
MOST of the time, they are obtaining cards for 50-60% value in credit which is being cashed in for more singles, for which they only paid 50-60% of value in credit, and so on, which is absolutely a winning game, and getting the rest in cash straight up. They've got a case full of power and black-bordered duals, and I typically see a 200+ dollar card coming out of there every time I'm there for more than an hour or two.
January 2, 2014 2:46 p.m.
meecht The point this argument has never ever touched, it isn't one card or two, it's many cards bought to resell and generate money for the shop and employees. If they can't replenish that investment and any future investment is seriously hampered, why stay in business or support this product? These aren't day traders trying to make a quick buck, but people buying blue chip stability and expecting value returns continuously.
January 2, 2014 2:47 p.m.
ChiefWannaHacka says... #33
"Investments, by nature, are risky because you make them based on the current market and future projections. Changes in that market determine if you made a good or a bad investment. That's just how they work."
@meecht I'm pretty sure ChiefBell's point is exactly that. "investors" in Magic choose to invest in certain cards because they know the reserved list exists. If it were revoked at this point it would literally be a huge affront to these "investors", whom made decisions based on market conditions just to have the manufacturer go back on a promise. At that point it isn't about market conditions, but it would be similar to a personal attack. Something along the lines of
"We don't care about you or your investment in us. We don't get anything from the secondary market, and we want more money so deal with it."
I want reprints as much as the next guy, because I'm trying to get into Legacy/vintage. Yet I know the value of the reserve list, because it preserves the growth and innovation of the game. Instead of just reprinting broken things over and over to make people happy, they continue to create new things that expand how we play. Things like Shardless Agent or Snapcaster Mage .
January 2, 2014 3 p.m.
Yeh exactly. Because Magic IS actually an investment. Anything you do is an investment really.
January 2, 2014 3:14 p.m.
Not everything. At least not the kind of investment that Magic is.
If I buy a movie on DVD, I'm expecting to get a couple hours enjoyment out of it, and then maybe a couple hours later on if it's worth rewatching. I don't buy a DVD expecting to sell it in a year for triple what I paid.
All kinds of things you buy for entertainment aren't an investment. All kinds of things you buy aren't investments by any stretch of the imagination even if expensive. Cars lose half their value as soon as you drive them home.
"Everything is an investment" isn't an argument for the reserve list. The argument "We already made certain promises to our playerbase that we can't in good conscience go back on" is all the reason -they- need even if we think it sucks.
January 2, 2014 3:22 p.m.
@ChiefWannaHacka The insanely powerful stuff should rightly be kept on the reserve list, but possibly still allow reprints in supplemental products. Maybe even create a special "purple-border" set similar to the Un-sets so the cards wouldn't be tournament-legal, but still somewhat available.
My issue is with a list that includes large chunks of sets (Homelands, Visions, Mirage, etc.) and cards that have no reason to be on the list except to appease collectors (Didgeridoo , Gravebind , Ragnar , etc).
January 2, 2014 3:25 p.m.
meecht, it was not collectors, but shops that the reserved list was made for. Did they make a mistake adding every rare for the next 5-6-7 sets to it, yes. But this gave the confidence back to the brand from the stores to continue to sell their product and in the secondary market. Collectors are just by-products of this. Without the stores supporting their product, it would have been literally, game over with 10 poison counters. The loss of collectors wouldn't have hurt as much as new collectors/players would have (and have) popped up thanks to the stores supporting the product.
January 2, 2014 3:32 p.m.
The thing about the random jank on the reserve list is that it was just the rares. They can't remove -anything- from the list without violating the purpose of the list, so we're stuck with some random crap on the list.
If you want non-tournament legal copies of reserve list cards, presumably to play casually with your friends, just make proxies. They're equally illegal in any sanctioned format, can look just as good as real cards if you do them right, and don't turf the market by creating a source of actual WOTC ink on actual WOTC cardstock for people to ink and screw around with the market.
Gidgetimer says... #2
I just want functional reprints personally. Let them keep their The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale I would be happy with:
The Sanctum at Vendrell Pale
Legendary Land
All creatures have "At the beginning of your upkeep, destroy this creature unless you pay 1."
January 2, 2014 11:40 a.m.