Help me become a decent MTG investor Please
Economics forum
Posted on June 28, 2014, 11:12 p.m. by Spootyone
Now that I have a job and, subsequently, have some money, I want to start becoming a bit of an mtg investor.
I understand many are suggesting to buy shocklands and I get that that's a solid choice. Other people have said to go for things like Abrupt Decay or other things rotating in standard that will be played in modern or eternal formats.
I'd like to be taught what to look for in investing, how to go about it, what a good number of singles to invest in would be...some general pointers, please.
I'd appreciate any and all help, from actual card suggestions to general tips and tricks. I want to be smart with my money and not make the same hideous mistakes I made as a new magic player (i.e. trading away all my "extra" shocks for bad standard cards).
Thanks!
GoldGhost012 says... #3
A job? Money? Blasphemy!
I would start with the shocks, Abrupt Decay s, and Deathrite Shaman s for their play in Modern and eternal formats. They're pretty plentiful at the moment, and they all are expected to rise.
June 28, 2014 11:21 p.m.
One of my big frustrating experiences lately was recognizing Courser of Kruphix to be a fantastic sleeper when it was roughly 5 -8 dollars but not having any money to buy them...and now watching as they climb to well over 15-20 dollars. It makes me sick haha.
I also feel like Hushwing Gryff is a solid investment. Are either of you investors? Do any of you know good ways to buy? (quantity, where from, trade or for money, etc).
June 28, 2014 11:34 p.m.
GoldGhost012 says... #5
I like to look at cards and predict but I seriously lack the cash to do any hardcore investing.
June 28, 2014 11:37 p.m.
Whacker_Slacker_2 says... #6
Ditto here. I wish to be more of an investor, but I can't (mainly due to being a jobless 17 year old who has rich grandparents but aren't willing to shell out the cash for Magic). However, I know a bit about it. Get shocklands. I see people around the shop I go to carry binders with over 50+ shocklands and use that as a commodity to get the things they need. Also, try to eye what might be the next big thing. cough Courser of Kruphix cough
June 29, 2014 12:50 a.m.
gnarlicide says... #7
Well, when I look at spoilers, (this is phase 1 of speculating a new set), I think to myself, "what cards are spoiled that nobody is talking about?" When theros was being spoiled, Hero's Downfall
was getting no love and subsequently was only about 3.99 pre order. At the same time Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver
was hyped at somewhere around 25.00. So I look at cards that nobody cares to talk about, and think about what they do, and whether they will be main decked or not played at all. Removal and board wipes are solid for speculations. See also, Bonfire of the Damned
. This was a card that had a 3.00 pre order tag, that quickly rose to 60.00 during its heyday.
As far as creatures, you need to look at their respective power level compared to mana investment. With that, you have to look at what cards are currently IN standard. Boros Reckoner
is a fine example of this. Pre order, around 2 bucks. Three weeks later, jumped to 30. Because of some card called Blasphemous Act
.
Which brings me to the next phase.... Rotation.
When a card is spoiled and released and just kind of flounders around the bulk bin for a while, people forget it exists. Nobody will trade for them and everyone uses them for coasters when they drink random beverages. But then the next set comes out, and somehow a new card or bunch of cards provide a shell for your fierce looking Desecration Demon
beer coaster to lay beats on people all day long. I picked up, mostly for free, around 55 of these bad Larry's. And I sold that many around a year later. A good way to figure out what card has potential for this kind of "out of nowhere jump" is to look at what card blows people out in block constructed. This could give you a decent indication on what sleepers to look out for. Prognostic Sphinx
is my next big guess... I have 30 of them at the moment. Just look at it for a minute, then try to tell me I'm wrong.
Of course, finally there's the eternal/non rotating test. This one is pretty easy. Does it get played? Yes. Is it a main board worthy card? Yes. Is it a four of? Yes. Is it splash able? Yes. Is it efficient? Yes. Can it easily synergize with an existing tier 1 archetype? These are all the questions that need to be answered in order to effectively decide if you should buy up a bunch of a card before/when it rotates, and hang on to them! This one requires patience, because sometimes it takes a while, see also Dark Confidant
. But you also have to be careful, in case of a banning, see also, Strip Mine
and Deathrite Shaman
.
Foils of strange junk rares are an interesting thing to hang onto... Edh and casual players are a thing these days, and love their foils. Use that as leverage when you are trying to pry a Liliana of the Veil from one of them.
I hope this helps. This is what I do, and it has only failed me once (I am looking at you, Gideon, Champion of Justice
).
June 29, 2014 1:02 a.m.
gnarlicide: Thanks a ton for that in-depth analysis of how you do what you do. That was actually really helpful and I do really appreciate it :)
Might have to copy/paste that into a word document somewhere haha.
June 29, 2014 1:12 a.m.
PasorofMuppets says... #9
I highly recommend the website brainstorm brewery, they also have a podcast.
June 29, 2014 1:38 a.m.
I would invest in reserve list cards, blue duals, etc. These will go u and are a safe investment. Heavy play, cant be reprinted, every reprint that makes legacy more accessible, makes duals more of a requirement and raise in price.
I like fleecemane has big speculation. Sphinx amd reaper are readily available in precon decks, putting a ceiling on them, whil fleecemane fits the 2 drop slot as a 3/3 in a color combo people like to play. Voice rotating, plus his unique effect makes him a decent top deck at any point in game. He was at $2 and saw play in block, establishing a good base for rotation decks.
Take time to research cards and metas, decks, formats. We did a free round robin tournament for promo cards today, 1st got 1st pick, etc. Snagged a $10 grave tita promo first bc I know it sees commander play, others took $1/2 full arts and foils, next pick snagged another commander foil, $16 retail value in 2 cards while others ended under $5. No one else played commander that topped. Likewise in trades I know what im looking for, legacy modern edh playables. Stamdard specs like my fleecemanes and 50 reapers (pre dual deck). While also grabbing things like DRS and abrupt decays, 22 abrupt decays, all picked up under $7-8 each, traded some towards mox diamonds so jus 22 now, with 15 DrS and 1 foil.
Foils are another aspect, people foil decks out in modern amd legacy. Izzet charm is the most played charm in modern, ive got playsets of pack and promo foils, wear/tear for legacy and modern, foil rtr shocks have already doubled since I got them, foil supreme verdicts all day! Uncounterable, sees play im every format, sexy foil. Dont forget chromatic lantern, rest in peace, etc all see sideboard slots in other formats or commander, lantern is $30 foil last I checked vs $4 non.
June 29, 2014 2:51 a.m.
Sorry 3am and on my phone, but research, research, and play as many formats as possible, know what sees play or could. Non edh players wil see overcosted cards and be oh commander. No. Play commander and learn wha is actually good for commander.
June 29, 2014 2:54 a.m.
Ok, first off what people said are true-ish and good.
Best place to get this information is be a quietspeculation.com subscriber, reddit mtgfinance subreddit is also a good place, in addition to this stuff. mtgprice.com and mtgstocks.com are good for figuring out the history and changes in prices.
But first off, study the market and learn how things work, don't jump right in. As in sit back for the next year or so and watch how it develops and dabble in it financially. Don't just jump on the first thing you see.
There are a few ways to go about this as you can see. most people are advocating 'buy low/now, selll later/long term', Which is good, but not the only way. Don't think of paper magic as the only investment platform. MTGO is also another good place to look and do business on.
Reserved list is your blue chip stocks, to use that analogy. Big upfront cost with the minimal risk of losses. But if paper legacy dies out, so do these stocks as players start to sell out for mtgo legacy. This is something to be concerned about in high price items on the reserved list, duals for example. They wouldn't be this high without the tournament format supporting it.. Some things though are still rising, like Drop of Honey
Which is not seeing play, but in the last few months gone from 30 to 45$. So study the list and figure out which are the most productive... New card releases also influence's prices here. For example Invoke Prejudice
was 35 but devotion mechanic and someone trying it out in a legacy tournament pushed it to 175 (almost) over night.
Standard items, some people invest in coreset items in august (after the hype dies down and plenty of stuff on the market) and buy up and trade for rares/mythics on the list and sit on them and dump them as they peak during the year. This may gain you a couple dollars per card, but multiply that couple dollars per each card and it adds up. Expansion sets also have a lull and peak during the year. usually around xmas. novemeber/december, pick up modern staples. They usually jump around jan/feb and stay decent through the year. (I advise to buy around this time for most things not standard). Feb/Mar is the standard lull, where the established decks have people already playing them. This is when your sleepers from the coreset start to rise and should be dumped as rogue decks use them to mess with the metagame.
During spoiler season pay attention to it, daily. Be ready to buy during spoiler season. Not necessarily pre-orders, but reprints. For example, recently the spoiled painlands has caused a jump in prices by over 200% of existing ones, because people went out and bought up the under 1$ ones they could and will dump them sooner than later to buy lists for 2-3.00 (some are going for 8$ tcg mid). for a 200-300% return.
This brings me to buy lists. mtgprice.com does a good job of showing the current prices stores are willing to buy at (sell to tab on a cards listing). This should be your bread and butter. don't concern yourself with 'oh it's selling at 50$', because that's the tcg mid, very rarily will you get that cash value, even as a seller on ebay or tcg. It's only for trade value. At this moment, I'll tell you I'm talking about making cash, not trade value or increasing a portfolio just to have a big mtg-penis. I'm talking about filling your pockets with cold hard cash.
The trick is to understand the spread and document each transaction you have in some sort of spreadsheet, database or what not. Record the price you bought at and/or traded it and if it was a trade, what you traded it for. Then monitor the sell lists, sell when you can make money. You'll lose out sometimes, but that's OK, it's a part of the cycle. With knowing the way things fluctuate, what's the meta like and so on, you'll start to minimize the risk. This is the main factor I say, sit back and watch and save your money to invest slowly over a year, before jumping in.
There is a term called the spread, this is the difference between the buy price and the sell price, the lower the better.
Unless you become an ebay seller or card store on your own, deal with the buy lists. It's the easiest way to make money. And never laminate over "I sold x card at 14.00 when I got it at 10.00 and 3 years later it's now 50.00", just keep moving forward.
June 29, 2014 3:26 a.m.
Thank you to the rest of you for your great responses!
I ended up going for the rest of the shocks I didn't own (safe because I play EDH), a handful of Prognostic Sphinx , and although not a ton of people are talking about it, a few Herald of Torment .
I know the herald was a promo, but at <2 bucks a piece I really feel like they can go nowhere but up come rotation. The card is just so good and versatile. Hopefully I'm not wrong but I guess if it goes awry I didn't lose out on too much haha.
June 29, 2014 10:17 a.m.
Spootyone: If MBD continues to be a thing, which it might if they slot Master of the Feast or Herald of Torment for Pack Rat and Desecration Demon (a stretch for the rat, I know), then the Herald is a safe pick up I think. Prognostic Sphinx is a fringe card that might, and I stress might, pick up some value. I actually see Polis Crusher doing better than the Sphinx. But that is just my own speculation.
June 29, 2014 11:53 a.m.
McSleuthburger says... #15
Like everyone has said it is all about predicting the next big thing before everyone else does. I am watching white and green alot. I still dont understand how Fleecemane Lion isint getting more love. For 2 you get a 3/3 that can get stronger and can get hexproof / indestructible But if mono-green takes off Arbor Colossus could be huge. Though that isint happening yet.
June 29, 2014 12:37 p.m.
DrLitebur: I was doing some research last night and Polis Crusher was another card I was debating picking up a few copies of. I know that it is great against Courser of Kruphix and Banishing Light , and if Hushwing Gryff isn't enough to steer away constellation decks (I don't think it is), then it would be great against then AND Herald of Torment AND Master of the Feast . Not to mention he's dirt cheap...Hmm...Yeah, I'll be picking up a few of those as well.
What about Arbor Colossus ? I feel like Nissa really pushes him into playability. And if Khans goes towards the dragon-theme that people are speculating, it could easily see lots of play. It also handles Stormbreath Dragon and Herald of Torment and Master of the Feast all very well, and can even deal with Prognostic Sphinx . The only downside I feel it has is that it cannot be played the turn Nissa comes out, which is hardly a real downside in the grand scheme of things. Thoughts?
June 29, 2014 12:37 p.m.
McSleuthburger says... #18
haha I got there right before you. Im hoping they will add more things like Hushwing Gryff. It really messes up Constellation decks but it can even mess up top decks because it messes with Gray Merchant of Asphodel . I dont know what they could create that could mess up devotion decks more but if they do, sign me up
June 29, 2014 12:47 p.m.
I feel like hushwing gryff is a card that could very well go up and I want to invest in a couple,but all the places I check are sold out already :/ so sad...
June 29, 2014 12:53 p.m.
I also bit the bullet (hardly) and bought 2 copies of Deathrite Shaman . It's a long term investment, but I'm hoping it pans out. How high are people speculating Abrupt Decay to go to? I understand it's quite potent in modern. Is it played in eternal formats as well?
June 29, 2014 1:09 p.m.
You don't have to invest before everyone else does, as long as you do it before most people you'll still turn a profit.
I strongly think that any player with a good knowledge of standard and modern or vintage can invest quite effectively. Just know the decks in the meta, what they do, and what kind of cards they need. If you know what other people are looking for then you can make good decisions. The best place to start is with the mana base and then look for creatures with interesting abilities that actually do things (like the newly spoiled gryff). These sorts of cards are useful to a lot of people. This is also why vanilla beaters, even with hexproof are usually bad investments, like fleece mane lion.
June 29, 2014 1:37 p.m.
Unique=valuable. That is why cards like Venser, Shaper Savant and Stifle are valuable, because those are cards that do things that no other cards do. Something else that you might also think on is the red-headed stepchild of those two, Perplexing Chimera . That card is very unique as well, and it just might be willing a small amount of speculation. I play with it in my EDH Kruphix deck, and it does wonders...just might be the next of those line of cards.
June 29, 2014 1:59 p.m.
I think what's great about Fleecemane Lion is I have 5 of them sitting around from when I was buying standard for paper magic and so i don't have to worry about losing out if they go up :P
I think one problem with Perplexing Chimera in that bunch is it not having flash. Yes, Prophet of Kruphix is a thing and so on, but I think it not inherently having it causes some issues with that. I'd love if you were correct though
June 29, 2014 2:04 p.m.
elementalheroflamewingman says... #24
Fleecemane Lion is just a Watchwolf that needs a heavy investment to become effective. It's usually just not worth to pay for the monstrosity cost. I don't really see it as a good investment option.
Another way to invest is to look for bulk rares that have interesting effects that may combo with cards in the future. I actually bought a playset of Dark Depths way before Vampire Hexmage came out for $2. Granted this is as good as hoping to win the lottery, but bulk rares are cheap, so you wouldn't really be spending too much. Definitely research the market though. Any cards that will fit with meta decks in the new set, or potentially create a new meta deck would be worth investing. Blue and white cards have been really good for the past few years, so that's worth noting.
June 30, 2014 11:14 a.m.
Dalektable says... #25
Definitely pick up a bunch of the mythics from the new sets pre-release weekend when all the hype is still around, guaranteed to make your money back...
But in all seriousness, It's all about predicting what deck is the next thing, or what cards will be good post rotation. As others have said, Nightveil Specter and Desecration Demon are two good examples of this. Right now for next rotation I'm looking at Herald of Torment , Stormbreath Dragon , Polis Crusher and Prognostic Sphinx all to be good guesses as to what will spike after rotation. And currently you could pick up twelve copies of Prognostic Sphinx for about 12 bucks. I can nearly guarantee doing that you would at least double your money if not more. For me It's stuff like that, finding the "junk" rares that will later be good in a different meta. And, of course, as others and yourself have said buying up modern staples is pretty much always going to be a good investment. Unless of course it's fetches, then don't do that right now lol.
June 30, 2014 10:50 p.m.
Dalektable: Way ahead of ya bud. Got 15 reg and 5 foil Prog Sphinges in the mail as we speak! :D Also, a dozen Arbor Colossus , a dozen Polis Crusher , a couple Deathrite Shaman and the rest of the shocklands I was missing. Woo!
July 1, 2014 12:23 a.m.
I'm also trying to start investing in Magic to make some side bucks.
would it be profitable to also invest in sealed products and hold onto those until the prices go up? (Of course, not any sealed product, but FTV, or good sets, like Innistrad when it was standard)
Also, is it just me that thinks Ob Nixilis, Unshackled could go huge if fetches become a thing in Khans?
Oh, and Chief Engineer looks way too cheap for what he does.
July 1, 2014 2:32 p.m.
McSleuthburger says... #28
The one thing about Chief Engineer is that I see him only in artifact decks, while Ob Nixilis will be relevant in many different types of black decks (especially EDH)
July 1, 2014 9:11 p.m.
traceurling says... #29
Do you guys Think Thassa will go up or down in value? Blue devotion has been seeing a resurgence lately but I dunno how it'll end up after rotation :\
July 5, 2014 4:45 p.m.
traceurling says... #31
Hmm...do you think MonoBlack Devotion will survive rotation? Losing Underworld, Desecration, Pack Rat, and Nightveil is pretty hard but Thoughtseize, Hero's Downfall and of course Grey Merchant are still pretty good cards...trying to figure out if I should invest in thoughtseize...Also so it seems likely R/G and G will get beter so Arbor Colossus, Polis Crusher and Stormbreath awill get more value?How does one predict these things with a huge chunk of the next Standard (Khans block) missing?And what does the term "junk" mean?
July 6, 2014 11:04 a.m.
No it wont survive. But investing in thoughtseize is always a good idea. Staple in modern and standard.
You can't predict accurately at this point.
Junk refers to the combination - BGW
DrLitebur says... #2
In order to be an 'investor', you have to be able to read or predict the next deck archetype or 'big thing'. An example of this is Nightveil Specter or Desecration Demon . Both started, before their price spikes, at bulk rare prices, but when MBD (Mono-Black Devotion) became the 'It' deck, the prices of those cards rose dramatically, from $1.00 a card to $10.00 a card. That is what you can do if you can speculate accurately.
Now, as for the next 'it' card(s), I see Hushwing Gryff and Sunblade Elf being big from the new set so far. That is my guesses, but those are just guesses from someone who thinks it might be a good buy.
June 28, 2014 11:20 p.m.