Holy Spike, Avacyn
Economics forum
Posted on April 12, 2016, 4:23 p.m. by ninjaclevs13
Archangel Avacyn Flip is now $50. If you don't believe me, look here: http://shop.tcgplayer.com/magic/shadows-over-innistrad/archangel-avacyn (link wasn't working). I have a few questions, since I just pulled one a few days ago. First of all, why? Did she do really good at a recent tournament or something? Probably. Second, is she going to go down, up, or stay steady? I just want to know whether or not she should be traded now. Any help is appreciated, speculation and all.
Anytime a card like this spikes to $50, I always sell. HOWEVER, it's a very playable card in standard, it did well at SCGBALT, it's an Angel which means EDH players will want them, and it could see play in Modern at some point. Honestly, I would hold it.
April 12, 2016 4:32 p.m.
Well she did show up in basically any list running white last weekend at the SCG open in Baltimore. Including 4 of the top 8 decks.
April 12, 2016 4:50 p.m.
I highly doubt she'll get any higher than 50 because she'll probably see slightly less play than Jace in standard and limited modern play if any. Also, she is in what is likely to be the most opened set of all time. Jace on the other hand is stable at around 80-90 and he is likely seeing more standard play than avacyn ever will and certainly more in eternal formats, so avacyn being 30 bucks lower seems reasonable, although I wouldn't be surprised if she spikes/plummets after the pt, but will probably end up stabilizing again at 40-50
April 12, 2016 5:01 p.m.
$50 is speculation hype. I can't remember anything not splashable costing this much
April 12, 2016 7:22 p.m.
So question; I don't play standard, but I pulled Avacyn and a promo Declaration in Stone at prerelease. Should I sell or trade them into eternals?
April 12, 2016 7:41 p.m.
Egann Probably going to be difficult turning them into eternal playables. Most players are smart enough to read into hype.
April 12, 2016 7:44 p.m.
capriom85 lol I was waiting for that. I missed that and then couldn't edit. lmao
April 12, 2016 7:44 p.m.
ninjaclevs13 says... #15
Avacyn is splashable! I will splash as much as I want! Waves will be made! AVACYN MUST BE SPLASHED
April 12, 2016 7:53 p.m.
DrFunk27, haha
ninjaclevs13, haha. It needs a deck that supports WW easily, so it's not splashable EVERYWHERE like Jace
April 12, 2016 8:04 p.m.
DrFunk27: Thanks. I thought that might be a problem. Still, it's pushing $100 from 2 cards....
April 12, 2016 8:58 p.m.
Avacyn may not exactly splashable, but Im willing to bet shes gonna be in almost every competitive deck in standard.
Last time I saw a mythic like that was Jace TMS, and look where he ended up.
April 12, 2016 10:24 p.m.
Aezuriel The problem is, she is nowhere near the power level of Jace and isn't format defining. She's good, but not that good.
April 12, 2016 10:35 p.m.
@DrFunk27 I respectfully disagree. The moment I saw her I thought she was gonna be OP.
She has "titan-class" stats in the current format with good evasion at a decent cost. the only creatures that outclass her are the large eldrazi, and those take a lot of setup to pull off
She has relevant board clear for an aggro/midrange oriented format... in standard where currently "Wrath of God" is a dirty word.
She has a game-turning ETB trigger and can be cast at instant speed. At worst she is a 4/5 turn clock. which is about as good as it gets for anything below 8 cmc.
She is relevant in aggro and control decks... and as my most recent testing is showing, at least one viable combo deck.
She is the kind of creature whose best defense against is to run her yourself. lest you risk running into her with no equivalent threat.
Looking at the SCG Baltiomre results, most of the top 64 decks ran her or have access to her after the format. In part this is because everyone wanted to splash white for Declaration in stone. But after seeing her perform week one, every timmy, johnny, and spike want her for their own reasons.
I think the only reason she's not the same power level as jace tms is that she costs 1 more mana.
My prediction is that she is gonna pass Jace, Vryn's Prodigy Flip in dollar value now that he is not so universal and the color to play is in everything is white.
Its not that there aren't other viable decks out there. Its that she is such a good card in this format, that any viable deck that can run her, should... even if it means taking a double dip in white.
April 13, 2016 3:31 a.m.
Aezuriel Ok, so your initial post said Jace the Mind Sculptor. That's what I was referring too. You said nothing about Baby Jace. Avacyn is not even close to the power level of Jace, the Mind Sculptor. That's just ridiculous. It's not going to happen.
However, if you are saying she is more powerful than Jace, Vryn's Prodigy then I would likely agree with that but they are fundamentally very separate cards with different purposes.
April 13, 2016 9:59 a.m.
ninjaclevs13 says... #22
Yeah...Avacyn is nowhere near Jace, the Mind Sculptor. Sorry, gotta go with DrFunk27 on this one..
April 13, 2016 10:05 a.m.
Nothing to be sorry about. Just different opinions.
We can check back in 2 sets or so and see how things change.
April 13, 2016 2:22 p.m.
OneItsStarted says... #24
It is simple, we kill the Avacyn with Lightning Axes. (Oh and also just plain boardwipe those token decks, those things are way too fragile)
April 13, 2016 10:38 p.m.
@OneItsStarted Avacyn was in 4 of the top 8 and like 7 of the top 16 decks, if you look they were were almost all some human tribal variant (W, W/U, or W/G), not token decks. Also, in response to your boardwipe is when they're flashing Avacyn in. So your boardwipe tries to destroy their now indestructible creatures and they survive.
April 13, 2016 11:01 p.m.
OneItsStarted says... #26
for a turn, yes, that's what Kozilek's Return is for, and waiting until they tap out
April 14, 2016 12:53 a.m.
I don't understand. You play Avacyn in response to removal. Unless you mean to say you are casting 2 removal spells in the same turn (t6?) or are just waiting another turn and casting another removal against my developed board.
If you are waiting till turn 6 for your mass removal, I'm OK with that. If you are throwing away cards while I gain additional use of my cards (losing tempo) I'm OK with that too.
And, I haven't even bothered to talk about whether or not I have access to Eldrazi Displacer, Essence Flux, or Eerie Interlude.
We can go tit for tat on cards for card answers all day, but I see magic through a different lens:
If you are sucessfully casting IoK against my Avacyn in play, you are killing 2-3 creatures that have done (6-10) damage to you or your creatures. Avacyn herself survives, and has probably hit you at least once (10-14) damage. When Avacyn flips 3 damage is gonna happen to face (13-17) and I am not going to speculate about damage to board state. If I get to swing with her thats 6 more damage bringing our total threat assesment to 19-23, with you being at least -1 in card advantage (the turn I cast avacyn).
April 14, 2016 4:33 p.m.
So in order to properly evaluate Avacyn, we really need to decide which format we are arguing for and against.
She is amazing in Standard and will be one of, or the best creature in the format.
She is not format changing in Modern. She may see play, but it will not break the format.
April 14, 2016 4:39 p.m.
I'm ok with that assesment.
But getting back to the original post... I think shes busted in standard, and every deck is going to want to play her. She will retain some value post standard due to the Vorthos effect, and her appeal to casuals hits on Timmy Johnny and Spike.
If someone brainchild's an Avacyn deck that can demonstrate a favorable m/u versus affinity, we are in TMS territory.
If you have her, hold on to her, and if you don't have her, try to get her cheap (it might be too late). Her price should dip again the next few weeks as players in big tournaments look for ways to combat the elephant in the room, but I wouldn't expect her to drop below 30$usd before Eldritch moon.
Atony1400 says... #2
Hmmmmm, I think she will drop once hype dies down. However, you will need to wait until the Pro Tour to see if she will rise or fall.
April 12, 2016 4:26 p.m.