Hype Train: Thing in the Ice
Economics forum
Posted on March 7, 2016, 3:26 p.m. by ducttapedeckbox
For those who haven't seen it, the Thing in the Ice is pretty freakin' cool:
It's a wall that doesn't die to bolt' and can become a deal-with-or-die problem for your opponent. It doesn't bounce multiples, and can help reset Pia and Kiran Nalaar or more importantly, Snapcaster Mage. In conjunction with the fourth spell, it can also save your side from a board wipe.
So, let's talk price.
- SCG:
Sold out at $6 each, sold out at $8 each, $10 each, sold out at $12 - TCG:
Sold out without listing a price, $8 each, $10 each, $14 each - Ebay:
$30-40 for a playset$40-50 for a playset
Is this thing going to be bonkers and go well into the double digits, or is going to be hyped and become a bulk rare? It's impossible to tell, but what do you think? Why?
GeminiSpartanX says... #3
It's a rare instead of a mythic, so that hurts its chances. I don't think it's quite a Thought-Knot Seer-level rare either as far as eternal formats go, but it could be a Siege Rhino level rare for standard. It depends on what format you're playing I think. Financially I don't think this will break double digits in the long term, but could spike high during prerelease.
March 7, 2016 3:37 p.m.
ducttapedeckbox says... #4
The rarity is definitely a concern. I'm tempted at $8 each, but I'm afraid that it'll be bulk...
March 7, 2016 3:39 p.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #5
Someone has to say it...
You know what other card was originally printed as a Rare in a little set known as Future Sight...
March 7, 2016 3:43 p.m.
ducttapedeckbox says... #6
I'm not sure if that is a fair comparison - SoI will be opened much more than Future Sight.
A good comparison is actually Wall of Omens. Same price currently, and this thing does a hell of a lot more. Omens is an uncommon in a moderately-opened set too.
March 7, 2016 3:46 p.m.
Bought my playset at ~$2.50 a piece.
If this card becomes legit, it will be in formats with free spells and cheap cantrips (i.e. Modern and Legacy). Two mana is minimal investment for a creature that dodges Lightning Bolt and flips just from you playing the game.
March 7, 2016 3:50 p.m.
ducttapedeckbox says... #8
Where did you get $2.50 a piece? The first I saw it online was at $6 a piece.
I think it has massive potential but also could flop and become bulk. I would have easily bought a set for $10.
March 7, 2016 3:54 p.m.
iBleedPunk says... #10
Just got my express ticket for the Hypetrain!
I cant wait to see this card played at a Limited capacity like the Pre-release for SoI. This and Geralf's Masterpiece give me a reason to play around with U/B in Standard again :D
March 7, 2016 4:04 p.m.
So, this thing + Assault Formation?
Drop it, and it's effectively a 4/4 for 2... cast a few spells, and it effectively becomes 8/8.
March 7, 2016 4:05 p.m.
it being 2 mana compared to 1 is a big deal because on turn 2 you have much better things to do like young pyro and stuff so eternally I dont see it in standard I also dont see it
March 7, 2016 4:14 p.m.
ducttapedeckbox The more I look at it, the more this card just screams value. DAMN IT I need to get in. It's an instant board wipe. Play an instant to remove the last counter on your opponents turn before they attack, wing for 7 on your next turn. WTF is R&D doing making cards like this.
March 7, 2016 4:23 p.m.
iBleedPunk says... #14
EmblemMan how do not see it getting Standard love? I think quite the opposite and im curious to your thought process
March 7, 2016 4:24 p.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #16
I have to disagree with that line of thought completely EmblemMan.
Ignoring the fact that I would rather play this over Young Pyromancer in most scenarios and this is more resilient to removal as a whole, that whole way of thinking is flawed. 1st just because you can cast something Turn 2 doesn't mean you should, 2nd we all know that reality is no matter how solid your deck building skills are you won't always hit your curve. 3rd options are a good thing. In my rock deck my typical Turn 2 options are Abrupt Decay, Bitterblossom, Dark Confidant, Scavenging Ooze and Tarmogoyf. That's 5 different lines of play and I would foolish to say well I'm not going to play Scavenging Ooze because I rather play Tarmogoyf Turn 2.
March 7, 2016 4:27 p.m.
I mean it does literally give your opponent like at least a turn and probably two to deal with it. It's just like a suspend card. Very powerful once triggered but screams at your opponent 'deal with this' and if your opponent can't then you deserve to win.
March 7, 2016 4:34 p.m.
ducttapedeckbox says... #18
But it's a 2-drop that screams "kill me."
And now we're at $10 each.
March 7, 2016 4:40 p.m.
No but this card does something different then something like young pyro which is why I said i would play it over the ice card because its just better in decks that want to tempo out or go wide because having one threat like this or delver does not work in some match ups. I am not saying I wouldnt play bob because I would rather play tarmogoyf I am saying im not gonna play bob because my whole meta is burn and hes just gonna kill me. Also this thing (lel) gets hit by all removal except bolt and if you tell me you would rather have this than pyro because of bolt then ok I guess we should dump every delver deck because so does that card. Sure maybe it can be played in a control shell instead of something like wall of omens but thats the only place I would see it and outside of emeria control I dont see these decks doing very well currently and even then once eldrazi is banned if that deck becomes not very popular then abrupt decay is going to come back and shrek the format again and that with path terminate pulse and whatever is just gonna kill this every time so yeah sometimes its great but most of the times its dead so would you rather have this or something like collonade. As far as standard is concerned what spells are you going to play? Control and cheap removal lose a lot of things save ojutais command which is cool with the card but resets the counters and things like fiery impulse. I am not saying this wont see any play but I think people are over hyping the hell out of this thing. Also in something like modern what are you gonna do with it? play it on turn 2...ok turn 3 serum visions.....uh....then what its not like we have ponder pre ordain brainstorm in one format and in the formats we do this thing is so unbelievably slow its a joke. Who knows maybe im wrong but im not someone that gets hyped over random rares that make big fatties that "seem good". This card reminds me a lot of the new linvala they made its not at all comparable but its just something that seems good because one card synergizes with it or maybe a deck can fit it or something good relates to it so people think its the next big thing and then it ends up flopping because in reality its just not that practical.
March 7, 2016 4:45 p.m.
My eyes are bleeding from trying to read that wall of text. At least you put periods in there, I guess.
March 7, 2016 4:50 p.m.
Gitaxian Probe, Thought Scour and Sleight of Hand are all can trips in modern...not to mention Slip through space and maybe expedite. This card can get flipped on T3.
March 7, 2016 4:59 p.m.
Is that worth it though? Would you rather have a 7/8 or a 2/1 and 4 1/1's in a format that should most definitely have an answer on turn 3. Even tron would have an answer by then. Don't get me wrong bouncing creatures is relevant but I mean what is really going to contest it anyway if it flipped at that point you are just trying to kill it and you are playing the control role anyway so its not like you are trying to kill them. I feel like in modern this is somewhat similar to gurmag angler you are casting spell and cantrips to put all these resources to make a big fatty and I understand that but even that card is not really format defining by any means and IT doesn't die to decay.
March 7, 2016 5:12 p.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #23
I mean, ignoring the Eldrazi for a sec, this whole format is full of CMC 2 creatures that scream "kill me". And this guy isn't even that easy to kill. I could see it solidly sitting at around $20 if it finds a home, a bit less if it doesn't.
March 7, 2016 5:27 p.m.
Servo_Token says... #24
I just really appreciate that a card that can see legacy play has the word "Thing" in it's name. I feel like one of the dev's 5th grader's was given the task of naming this card.
March 7, 2016 5:52 p.m. Edited.
ducttapedeckbox says... #25
I like the individual flavor of a card - "hey, what's in this giant chunk of i- OH SHIT"
March 7, 2016 6:12 p.m.
Thats fine to think that I won't fault you for it watermelon by I HIGHLY disagree and I don't think its upside compared to all of the other good 2 cmc creatures is enough to give it anything past 10 ever or surpass any of those creatures in number of decks it is played in or does well in. Also saying this isnt as easy to kill....literally the only common removal spell it does not die to is bolt and I already discussed why it not dying to bolt hardly matters.
March 7, 2016 6:14 p.m.
Sceadugenga says... #27
if it finds a modern home vampire hexmage will likely also spike
March 7, 2016 6:17 p.m.
No it won't. Go for the Throat and Abrupt Decay will. The uncounterable killspell will once again rule the meta.
March 7, 2016 6:19 p.m.
ducttapedeckbox says... #29
Why Vampire Hexmage....?
EDIT: Oh. meh. I don't think that would be worth running. It's useless without an unflipped Thing.
March 7, 2016 6:19 p.m. Edited.
Vampire Hexmage can remove all the counters on it by sacrifice. Pretty cool actually.
March 7, 2016 6:22 p.m.
thats pretty lel its like a baby dark depths and I am glad chief agrees with a couple of my points at least a little bit
March 7, 2016 6:30 p.m.
Playset of Abrupt Decay was the single best Magic investment I've made recently (getting in to Modern seemed to demand it...). Decay is so power, such relevant.
Or, I agree with the minority in that it won't be a Thing.
March 7, 2016 7:23 p.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #33
They're now up 11.99 and sold out on SCG
http://sales.starcitygames.com/carddisplay.php?product=1215367
Can any one else imagine a Dimir deck emerging from this.
March 7, 2016 7:46 p.m. Edited.
Look at the flavour text.
There is something in the water...
March 7, 2016 8:11 p.m.
alulien You're wrong already because it's definitely a Thing. ;)
Decay is so so so so good.
March 7, 2016 8:39 p.m.
Unforgivn_II says... #37
This is a Standard card at best, and even then there is a lack of powerful cheap instants and sorceries available compared to other formats. This card is like, the deadest of cards outside your opening hand. At least Wall of Omens gives you something when you topdeck it. If you draw it past turn 4, it will take ages to flip. Its a strong card, but not nearly as impactful as something like the aforementioned Gurmag Angler or Tasigur, the Golden Fang.
Immediate impact is always the most important thing for creatures, unless they have an ability soooo strong its worth waiting for. I wouldn't say this is a card that's worth it.
March 7, 2016 8:40 p.m.
$12 on SCG and Sold Out? Sweet, now my $50 isn't looking so bad right now.
March 7, 2016 8:41 p.m.
PistonGolem says... #39
Well then, I thought Wizards learned there lesson about Vampire Hexmage from Dark Depths. But still, ROLL IN THE HEXMAGE COMBOS!!
March 7, 2016 8:41 p.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #40
This card does 3 different things for 2 mana. Blocks early game Aggro, gives you a free Tarmogoyf and Cyclonic Rifts the whole board. If playing magic has taught anything, it's that cards that get stronger through normal game progression, are where it's at.
March 7, 2016 8:49 p.m.
Unforgivn_II My only issue with what everyone has said so far is that you're looking at this card in a control build. Wrong. This is a straight forward, aggro / tempo card that should only be played alongside:
4 Vapor Snag
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Serum Visions
4 Thought Scours
4 Slip through Space
4 Sleight of Hand
You want to can trip as hard as possible as fast as possible. That means agressive mulligans down to 4-5 cards.
Decks such as RUG Delver or UR a Horror
March 7, 2016 8:51 p.m.
As if this card couldn't get any better, it's abbreviation is
TITI...T...i...t...i. I don't know about you but I can't wait to play Titi control or Titi Aggro.
March 7, 2016 8:57 p.m. Edited.
But thats the thing apple its NOT FREE in fact its extremely expensive you have to play all of these cantrips to have your creature die and then you lose thats why UR/grixis prowess doesnt work in standard because sure you can draw your deck but you have to KILL ME if i kill your creatures and youre just here drawing cards your losing DrFunk. As far as cards that get better with game progression that is only when you are playing a deck that wants to go to a later game aggressive decks want cards that can be good late game which is why they play goyf sure but this is not a goyf its a 2 mana nerubian egg from hearthstone (look it up if you dont know what it is) and you know what those do when you don't have an activator? Absolutely nothing but this time you need 4 activators for the egg. This card isn't even aggressive it doesnt impact when it comes in like gurmag swagler and it doesn't pressure your opponent early enough like delver or goblin guide What.is.this.card.doing............nnooothhhiiinnggg and dear god I totally didnt even mention it being not in your opening hand of insane amounts of cantrips its the worse top deck because it cannot flip even in the same turn unless you have 4 extra mana up and multiple cantrips.
March 7, 2016 9:12 p.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #45
No, it's basically free, since you are rewarded for playing your deck. You're not casting Gitaxian Probe to get off an ice counter, you're casting it to draw through your deck and get information. You're not casting Lightning Bolt to get off an ice counter, you're casting it to kill something or go to the face. Just by following your game plan, you get a 7/8 monster stapled to boardwipe. This is basically a two-mana suspend one Crush of Tentacles. That comes with a strong blocker.
March 7, 2016 9:33 p.m. Edited.
EmblemMan For the love of God, please use paragraphs and such. It makes it so much easier to decipher whatever the hell you're trying to say. lol
Until this is released, and we see the scope of it, I really don't think either side can say DEFINITIVELY that it won't be modern playable. As Apple has pointed out though, Magic has historically taught us that playing creatures that benefit from just playing the game of magic tend to be very, very good.
As far as your argument about killing it. OK, that's fine. You've used one spell you won't have for Mandrils, tasigur, Delver, Swiftspear etc.
The point is, it's a MUST ANSWER 2 drop in colors that don't normally have this kind of pressure.
March 7, 2016 9:35 p.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #47
Also, instant speed transformation on a cast trigger is golden.
March 7, 2016 9:36 p.m.
OK here I will put everything in tiny little paragraphs to make everyone happy.
DrFunk27 All of those creatures (maybe not tasigur) are played for reasons and those reason are why those cards are good. This card follows none of those reasons and is inferior to every single one. Wait another paragraph.
Delver and swiftspear are good for their EARLY pressure turn 1 pressure not maybe turn 3 mulligan to 0 pressure. Wait another paragraph
Swagler (or tasigur) and mandrils are good because they also come out early and have a big body which this one does BUT they do not die to abrupt decay and no abrupt decay is not the end all be all but in a format where people play a handfull of popular spells dodging more than one out of like 4-5 is extremely important (TITI and the swag monsters listed all survive bolt so thats 2 for the swag monsters and 1 for TITI). Hold on getting the hang of this going down.
Yeah its a must answer in blue which we have (delver) or you can play something that does not just die to one removal spell like young pyro which supports your color of red that you want to splash anyway for bolt and what not. Deeper and deeper we go.
FAMOUSWATERMELON It doesnt just reward you for playing magic it does not reward you for playing creatures (often times found in decks) playing lands (SOMETIMES necessary to play magic) or from doing nothing because you have no cards in your hand (a common complaint of magic players) yeah you can stack your deck of cantrips but how many slots do you have to creatures at that point and how much time are you giving your opponents to....wait hold on getting too long lets go down here...
find answers to the limited number of creatures in your deck. This card is a fun card thats fine but its just not fast enough to do what people think it will do. Like I said before arguing a card is good using words like 'basically' 'sometimes' 'usually' or god help us 'mulligan to 5 ;)' often times means the card just is not that good or if it is good it just does not have the support or the meta game to be good.
PS: Oh and heeeellll yeah I was being a huge ass in this comment in response to the paragraphing comments but not because im mad or salty just because it was fun ;).
I will say though that the cast trigger in response to something and flipping is relevant people do it with jace all the time but that is more of a its a cool thing it can do after its already a good card not a stand alone pro in my opinion.
March 7, 2016 10:01 p.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #50
So by that logic, Delver isn't good because your deck doesn't just include instants and sorceries. Now this isn't Delver level of power because of a higher CMC, but it's the same style. And in a tempo deck, you can easily trigger this within a turn of playing it.
APPLE01DOJ says... #2
Plays nicely with Phyrexian Obliterator
March 7, 2016 3:35 p.m.