Hype Train: Thing in the Ice
Economics forum
Posted on March 7, 2016, 3:26 p.m. by ducttapedeckbox
For those who haven't seen it, the Thing in the Ice is pretty freakin' cool:
It's a wall that doesn't die to bolt' and can become a deal-with-or-die problem for your opponent. It doesn't bounce multiples, and can help reset Pia and Kiran Nalaar or more importantly, Snapcaster Mage. In conjunction with the fourth spell, it can also save your side from a board wipe.
So, let's talk price.
- SCG:
Sold out at $6 each, sold out at $8 each, $10 each, sold out at $12 - TCG:
Sold out without listing a price, $8 each, $10 each, $14 each - Ebay:
$30-40 for a playset$40-50 for a playset
Is this thing going to be bonkers and go well into the double digits, or is going to be hyped and become a bulk rare? It's impossible to tell, but what do you think? Why?
If this turns into bulk it's definitely going into my cube. Vampire Hexmage is already in it.
I can see this being a thing, however. The spoiled Brain in a Jar means you can play instants and sorceries at much lower cost, which is probably what Wizards is going for. Modern or Legacy? I'm not sold. It feels like a strong partner to Delver and Young Pyro, but I just don't know if it's worth it without playtesting.
March 7, 2016 11:08 p.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON No that is not what I am saying I said that you need a LOT of spells more than just a delver deck and yes delver, mainly something like UR delver, does have issues because it does not have a lot of threats which is why that particular build leans on pyromancer or just speed in general with swiftspear. Then there is grixis and temur delver that plays 3 colors to play more threats but delver needs 1 spell 1 time to flip and become a threat the other one needs 4 sure you can play one and draw another one and on and on but then you are not drawing threats and not being able to pressure them from multiple angles.
There was another thing I forgot to mention in my other posts as well as to putting this card in a tempo deck. It makes it hard to play a TEMPO deck like delver normally is where they could play something like Deprive Remand or Stubborn Denial or whatever counter card they want to play to hinder the opponent so they can get ahead on board.
Then someone will say that his bounce effect does that....yeah sure but on turn 3 you are bouncing probably 1 creature and then they just start playing the control game and killing your creatures. You have to remember tempo is not just bouncing creatures like Vapor Snag its also getting rid of removal with counters like Stubborn Denial to protect your creatures because then they are not building their board OR hindering yours and that is true powerful tempo. There is the point that you can flip him in response and maybe protect him? I think thats how it works but I feel like thats not to easy considering probe and visions and such are all sorceries.
Sceadugenga That is a good point and I personally hate when someone says that a creature just dies to bolt or abrupt decay or doom blade and so its bad but that is not what I am saying. In my last response I tried to STRESS the power level of creatures in relation to HOW MUCH common removal they dodge and this one ONLY dodges bolt. I use abrupt decay as a common example because things like mandril tasigur swagler do not die to that so not dying to 2 forms of common removal makes the card very good considering how common removal consists of only 4-5 cards making them better against a wider range of decks. As far as how I use abrupt decay in my arguments A LOT to refer to removal in general and not a specific point you could easily just say Path to Exile Terminate or even Go for the Throat I just like abrupt decay personally as a card lol.
I also know that your comment sceadugenga was not specifically directed at me and I am not attacking you in any way but I did want to clarify that in relation to my other points.
March 7, 2016 11:11 p.m.
OneItsStarted says... #4
Everyone was sad because the card based off of Delver in the spoilers is not nearly as good as the original Delver of Secrets Flip. However, instead of Delver we get Dark Depths's counter fun + Surge of Tentacles' board wipe and giants + Delver of Secrets Flip' instant socery support.
Please pardon me as I build a janky modern deck full of one Phyrexian mana cards, and then proceed to play Titi turn 2 and immediately follow with 4 Gitaxian Probes.
March 7, 2016 11:36 p.m.
OneItsStarted k so long as you are having fun thats what matters
March 7, 2016 11:39 p.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #6
To be fair when I said that Thing In The Ice was harder to remove than Young Pyromancer I had things like Golgari Charm, Darkblast and Drown in Sorrow in mind. Not just Path to Exile, Lightning Bolt, and Abrupt Decay.
March 8, 2016 12:15 a.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #7
OneItsStarted I can see that. Death's Shadow, Thoughtseize, & Spellskite + Surgical Extraction, Gitaxian Probe, Mutagenic Growth, Gut Shot, and Marrow Shards.
March 8, 2016 12:18 a.m.
EmblemMan Wait, so because he's "having fun" then it's ok to like the card? Wth. That's basically what we've all been saying, is that it's a fun card and that we want to play it. That's exactly why I brewed my UR a Horror deck.
March 8, 2016 12:26 a.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #9
I copied OneItsStarted, came up with this.
Swamp Thing
Modern*
SCORE: 0 | 0 COMMENTS | 4 VIEWS
Need to test and tweak. Might just make it 2 color or might go Grixis for Lightning Bolt instead of Esper for Path to Exile. I like the Esper SB better though.
March 8, 2016 12:37 a.m.
DrFunk27 I never ever EVER said that you cannot like the card I was arguing that it is not something that will see competitive play. That is indeed what people have been arguing with me about.
March 8, 2016 12:42 a.m.
Since we are all doing it, I also brewed a UR deck with it.
March 8, 2016 12:43 a.m.
APPLE01DOJ I like your Titi list. =D What about Titi Midrange like this.
March 8, 2016 12:59 a.m.
canterlotguardian says... #13
My Magic budget right now is hella Limited (see what I did there?) so if I end up not being able to afford the ONE FUCKING COPY that I need of this card for my Jalira, Master Polymorphist EDH deck just because everyone is going hypu crazy over this card for Standard/Modern, I'm going to be more than a little miffed.
March 8, 2016 1:07 a.m.
canterlotguardian Don't worry, it's only up to $13 now. lol
March 8, 2016 1:26 a.m.
Just bought 8 for $40. That's the most im willing to speculate. Card is good but paying more than $5 for it is stupid at this point right now. Especially for a card that's totally ruined by vapor snag.
Only bought because I realised it might suck in modern but in legacy it's absolutely mad.
March 8, 2016 1:29 a.m. Edited.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #17
Legacy does certainly look great. Little creature removal and in the right color.
March 8, 2016 7:14 a.m.
Am I bad for wanting to jam it into my infect sideboard? It'll probably just replace the spicy Invisible Stalker that's already there.
March 8, 2016 9:07 a.m.
CanadianShinobi says... #19
Eh? It's neat. I'm not wholly convinced it will see Modern play, but I'm not going to say that it won't. It certainly has the versatility to do so.
March 8, 2016 9:10 a.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #20
Doesn't strike me as a Standard powerhouse but it is solid. Best thing it has going for it that it slots into a Jace decks playing grindy strategies alongside cards like Soulfire Grand Master and Ojutai's Command.
At the same time this is about as low impact as it gets when cast. I'm not a buyer and $5-7 is where I think it'll settle after a couple weeks.
March 8, 2016 9:24 a.m.
Soulfire Grand Master rotates out when SOI comes in.
However, the synergy with Ojutai's Command is relevant.
March 8, 2016 9:50 a.m.
Every time I look at this card, I like it more and more.
T1: Island, Exile Simian Spirit Guide, into this...
T2: Mountain, Manamorphose, Manamorphose, Assault Strobe, Giant Growth, Flip, bounce all non-horrors (remove blockers), swing for 20.
Okay, that's 3 colors, with an ultimate hand, using Assault Strobe, which probably shouldn't be played... but still.
March 8, 2016 10:28 a.m. Edited.
Some interesting creatures to note, if you're playing around the 'non-Horror' part of the Transform ability.
Spellskite - Protection both before and after transforming.
Plague Stinger - Alternate win-con in 
Infect?
Phyrexian Revoker - Sideboard card that plays well with the deck (probably not)?
Phyrexian Obliterator - Go a little more mid-rangey?
I think it's probably only going to see play in 
Spell-heavy decks, along side Delver of Secrets
Flip, but these are interesting.
March 8, 2016 12:31 p.m.
Personally I like Hunted Horror. So much for your centaurs!
March 8, 2016 12:59 p.m.
OneItsStarted says... #26
Hey, does anyone know how it interacts with Vampire Hexmage? I know that Vampire Hexmage does not trigger the flipping of Titi, but if you do use the Vampire to remove the ice counters, then can Titi flip at all? Does the "Then" clause still trigger if there are no counters to remove?
March 8, 2016 2:39 p.m.
So... Legacy deck with this and Dark Depths?
Call it "Thin Ice"!
Would probably control, using Vampire Hexmage and the cheapest spells possible.
March 8, 2016 2:53 p.m.
The 'remove a counter and then transform' ability triggers on every instant and sorcery spell you cast. The transform portion does not care whether or not you removed the final counter on 'that' trigger, only that there are none when it checks.
So long as there are no counters on it after attempting to remove one due to casting a spell, it will transform.
March 8, 2016 2:56 p.m. Edited.
Exactly. You could drop hexmage T3, sacrifice. Play any instant or sorcery and the trigger would flip Titi.
March 8, 2016 2:59 p.m.
Played alongside things like flip jace, snapcaster, delver, the can only play 4 decays. All of these things are big concerns for your opponent so I see nothing wrong with playing this just cause you're scared of abrupt decay.
March 9, 2016 12:58 p.m.
aaron505495 says... #31
EmblemManlets actually think about this okay? Young pyro versus Thing in the ice. You have young pyro and four 1/1 tokens on your turn three. I take my turn three, flip thing in the ice, send your Young pyro back to your hand, KILL all of your tokens, then put 7 damage in your face. Tell me again how Ypung Pyromancer is better?
March 9, 2016 1:12 p.m.
aaron505495 says... #32
Made a Delver list with this card added in (Ludevic's Test subject is a placeholder). UR Ice-Delver
March 9, 2016 1:18 p.m.
I agree Stormchaser Mage would be nice, but it would be returned to hand... It has haste though, so not much of a drawback. I could see Thing in the Ice and Stormchaser Mage being a good combo T3 and earlier, and then T4 and later too if someone has enough cantrips or just cards in general (that's what izzet is all about). Maybe WotC is trying to revive Kiki.
I do believe it could become a thing (sooo many puns brace yourselves), especially in tempo decks (Kiki, as mentioned earlier). Maybe some Temur for Scapeshift? The possibilities could be endless. This is either gonna be a flop or a huge success, depends how the meta receives it.
March 9, 2016 2:03 p.m.
Control strategies as well, of course. Grixis, U/B, Jeskai. The possibilities truly could be endless (well as long as they contain blue, that is). This additionally could combat eldrazi very well. Are there any other horror cards that find play in modern very much?
March 9, 2016 2:06 p.m.
aaron505495 says... #35
Bovine073 the card you're looking for is Spellskite.
March 9, 2016 2:14 p.m.
Ah, indeed. Obliterator as well (but it doesn't see too much play).
March 9, 2016 2:17 p.m.
Lastdaysgunslinger says... #37
I was in an out for this card already but i think im going to get a playset if i find the right price.I dont think its worth 15.00 so ill wait until i can get the playset for under 20.00, play the waiting game it pays off everytime. The card will play great in a u/r prowess deck.
March 9, 2016 11:20 p.m.
aaron505495 says... #38
Lastdaysgunslinger Normally, I would wholeheartedly agree with you. However, in this case I think it's a good idea to buy now. If this were a good card in standard only, I would recommend waiting. However, I think this card will find a home in modern, if not legacy, and is never going to go down.
March 9, 2016 11:50 p.m.
TiTi is gonna tank from where it is now a month after soi is released
March 10, 2016 12:06 a.m.
aaron505495 says... #40
EmblemManWhy are you so adamant that this card is bad? It is very, very good. I would put it at slightly better than Delver, and delver used to dominate modern. It is 100% modern playable. It survives bolt. It requires no mana investment past the initial. It's a two drop that is not only a wall, but says "kill me or get boardwiped and take 7 damage in one turn." You keep making baseless claims about how it's not good. Please, support your claims, or don't make them.
March 10, 2016 2:12 a.m.
Sceadugenga says... #41
Re: Horrors, Hunted Horror has no downside with a well timed Thing flip.
March 10, 2016 4:46 a.m.
aaron505495 - it's a 2 drop that does nothing. Forcing you to tap out t2 in a tempo deck and not hold up countermagic OR play in the late game - at a point where you're low on resources in which case it's hard to flip. It doesn't immediately impact the board and it dies to all common removal now that no one is playing bolt. It's a horrifically bad top deck. It doesn't have any evasion.
This is a very playable card but it's no where near as good as everyone is making out. The card is fine and I'll certainly be testing it but it will never maintain a high price - and it shouldn't!
March 10, 2016 5:48 a.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #44
I mean, I think most of the price is going to come from Legacy, because it seems like a beast there.
March 10, 2016 7:32 a.m.
Yeah legacy is a whole other matter and will likely be the testing point for this new card.
We'll see!
The other thing is just that it's a rare and the magic player base has been expanding to the point where rares are widely in circulation. It's not gona be like future sight tarmogoyf that would have only been opened a few thousand times.
March 10, 2016 7:37 a.m.
Lastdaysgunslinger says... #46
aaron505495 I understand your reluctance in holding off but ive had good results with premonitions on cards. I waited on kalitas an ended up getting a playset for 25.00 witch is close to the price of one now. Its all timing i think. During presale all the crazy rich kid syndrome people are spiking prices. This card has mass potential but once people realize its only a creature without hexproof and in standard could take 4 rounds to flip then the hype will start to drop.
March 10, 2016 8:38 a.m.
aaron505495 I did that plenty on the first page of this thread you are welcome to go look at those where I address all of the concerns of the card and also why what you just said in that comment is incorrect. The only time I feel the need to say anything on this card is when people say BLATANTLY wrong things like "this card will never dip below 20" that is actually just wrong and I don't want anyone getting a misconception and wasting their money due to an over hyped card.
March 10, 2016 11:01 a.m.
Sceadugenga says... #49
I'm pretty sure it'll settle around 5 post set release.
March 11, 2016 9:50 p.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #50
Remember folks, unless this card is played at a level of Gideon, Ally of Zendikar, this card will PLUMMET. And it will PLUMMET HARD. First, it isn't a mythic. Second, this set has incredible expectations for it, and I expect more people to open it than Khans. Third, there are more and more people playing and purchasing MtG product each year. If Siege Rhino can stay under $5 even during its top peak, then this card will stay around that price too.
Sceadugenga says... #1
The only thing I feel the need to point out that in all the mtg advanced discussion I've heard, the argument "dies to removal" isn't a valid one to make in evaluation of creatures because all creatures share this weakness. It's the same as saying every card is bad because mana leak, or, more aptly for the metaphor, counterspell exists. (Apologies if this is considered basic knowledge).
Sure, it dies to a handful of removal, and abrupt decay is a hard answer. That still means the opponent has to draw the decay, which is the only answer we can't be prepared for outside of something like emerge unscathed or restoration angel.
I think the naysayers may be overestimating the power of decay a bit. Otherwise Delver wouldn't be a deck.
March 7, 2016 10:42 p.m.