Is MM2015 worth it?
Economics forum
Posted on May 12, 2015, 6:43 a.m. by nashbridges52
Now that the full spoiler is out I'm not so sure I want to drop $250 on a box. There are no good commons, Remand is the only good uncommon, and there are way too many bulk rares...and Comet Storm...
Just wondering what other people are thinking.
Epochalyptik says... #4
Please read the forum descriptions before posting. Moved.
May 12, 2015 7:03 a.m.
I would say the good common/uncommons are
Dismember, Lightning Bolt, Mutagenic Growth, Remand, and Cranial Plating.
May 12, 2015 7:11 a.m.
GeminiSpartanX says... #6
No, buying a box is not worth it. Read the mtggoldfish article here.
My favorite part is when they point out that MM15 has more bulk rares than DTK. Sure the ones that aren't bulk are wicked sweet, but I'm not one who'll play the lottery with $10 booster packs just to open a $1 rare MOST of the time.
May 12, 2015 7:20 a.m.
notamardybum says... #7
vapor snag, vines of vastwood, thoughtcast, plus some more along with what nemesis said
May 12, 2015 7:24 a.m.
You're forgetting about Smash to Smithereens, Vines of Vastwood, Electrolyze, Mana Leak, Combust, Celestial Purge, Apostle's Blessing, Dispatch, Expedition Map, Spectral Procession, Vapor Snag, Eldrazi Temple and the Karoo-Cycle.
May 12, 2015 7:33 a.m.
I just read that article... then realized that many/most people should ignore half of it.
Sure, the method of calculating EV is correct... but he has a few huge flaws.
- Primarily, he uses an estimated value for the cards based on the cash value he expects to be able to sell them for.
Doing this excludes the fact that many people will keep the cards they need, and simply be 'up' the full value of the card. - Those cards not kept will often be used as traders, thus they will be 'up' the value of that card as well. - I also use PucaTrade, so for me, and many others we will get full value for our cards... even the commons and uncommons, over time. (If he's buying boxes just to sell the singles, he should open a store... in which case, he can expect to get full value for the cards anyway.) - He also put no value on the foils. - While true many of them are not high value, the ones that are can easily swing an otherwise low value box... even a foil Spectral Procession is sitting around $20. - I can see putting no value in a regular box and there aren't nearly as many... but when every pack has one, you're very likely to get a couple value foils.
Needless to say, his calculations, though technically accurate, only reflect his own personal situation and opinions, and not the norm for the masses.
May 12, 2015 8:17 a.m.
Also forgot to mention... if the MM2015 cards is lesser value than a previous print and you now have more than a playset, you have the option to trade/sell your previous versions for value greater than that given to the MM2105 version.
May 12, 2015 8:21 a.m.
nashbridges52 says... #11
Thanks a lot for your insights Rayenous I read the mtggoldfish article and that's what really was pushing me towards staying away, I really appreciate your insights on the matter.
May 12, 2015 8:56 a.m.
GeminiSpartanX says... #12
Rayenous- I understood that he was basing some of his facts on being able to sell the cards for cash, but you can't deny the fact that when you're spending $10+ per pack, you really should be guaranteed at least half that much value in the pack at minimum. The graph that shows the disparity between the values of the rares combined with the point he made that there are WAY fewer valuable commons and uncommons (and the few that there are will likely decrease in value substantially) to make up for pulling a jank rare, means that there will be many people who are disappointed with their undervalued boxes. If you pull 2 non-tarmogoyf mythics and only 2-3 'valueable' rares in your 24 packs, chaces are you didn't make up the value of the box in total.
I agree that his methods and opinions are geared more towards those who only care about value cards from this set, however I do feel like he correctly points out the risk factor of buying boxes. I still think that I'll get a few packs with whatever store credit I win in the next few months, but I don't think that many people will get $500 worth of cards from the typical 2 boxes (48 packs).
May 12, 2015 8:57 a.m.
Before you jump to whether or not you are going to buy the packs, think about this question:
Are you going to use the cards you pull?
There are plenty of spoilers so you should be able to tell if you are going to use them.
May 12, 2015 9:05 a.m.
GeminiSpartanX says... #14
rox5tar hit the real point of it all. If there is a good chance that you'll use most of the cards you open from packs, then this set is good for you no matter who says what. I feel like if I were new to Modern, this set would help me start a good Twin or Affinity deck or make an existing budget build better. You could get very lucky and trade that goyf you pulled to someone for an old modern deck they might not play anymore. Although I'm too paranoid about making absolutely sure I'm not wasting my hard-earned money, that doesn't mean that you're enjoyment of cracking packs should be diminished if that's something that you like to do. Or you could just run a few drafts with friends for fun. It's really up to what your goals are when buying boxes.
May 12, 2015 9:23 a.m.
slovakattack says... #15
Depends why you want to get it.
If it's to draft, then sure.
If it's for value, then no box is worth it, MM or besides.
May 12, 2015 9:24 a.m.
The only hope you have of making your money back from an MM2015 box is to pull a Tarmogoyf and hope the rest makes up the value.
IMO, spend the money drafting the set a couple times, then use the rest to buy singles. However, if you can get a few friends to pitch in with the plan to draft it yourselves, go for it.
May 12, 2015 9:30 a.m.
If you're willing to put a high premium on your 'experience' of cracking packs, this is perfectly legitimate. The same argument applies to lottery tickets: fun to dream, but terrible financial proposition.
The 'i'd use all the cards anyway' argument does not factor into the financial calculation of whether a box is 'worth it'. The lottery ticket Goyf aside, can you purchase with certainty those singles that you'd want for under the MSRP of the box(es)in greater numbers the the odds of cracking them? If yes, then buying singles is objectively a wiser financial move.
You can make money on Boxes, I made almost %30 returns on Khans of Tarkir. This set is close, MSRP to EV - but equal values is not profit. Sure, i'd like to have almost all of the MM2 cards, but what am I really going to do with one Splinter Twin? EDH aside, I'd sell it or buy 3 more, otherwise i'm wasting both its financial and entertainment values.
May 12, 2015 10:16 a.m.
wow, Tarmogoyf is currently about 100~
see: https://www.magiccardmarket.eu/?mainPage=showSearchResult&searchFor=tarmogoyf
May 12, 2015 11:20 a.m.
JakeHarlow says... #19
I'll be grabbing singles. Maybe convert some store credit into packs. But I won't be spending actual money on sealed MMA2. Doesn't seem very worth it. :/
May 12, 2015 1:05 p.m.
Coinman1863 says... #20
Personally I bought a box because it may be expensive, but I basically call it EDH masters now because Comet Storm may not be an expensive card but holy shit, it's a beast in EDH. Same with many of the other rares and uncommons that people may deem bad. I just am using it as an aggregate of EDH cards where I would spend $250 on singles for EDH so I might as well get a few other cards along the way for the same price.
So, thats an EDH players point of view on it.
May 12, 2015 1:21 p.m.
ducttapedeckbox says... #21
I'm keeping my preorder. I got the box for MSRP and plan on spending an afternoon drafting it with some friends. It doesn't hurt that there's a chance to get some value out of it, and that a decent amount of the value will be help me get started building my Blue Moon list.
I'm going to do some drafts on here and if it turns out not being as fun as I expected, then I'll hold onto the box for a few years and let it appreciate. Not that I want to though.
May 12, 2015 2:20 p.m.
puimuri - that's about right. The last 2 Goyfs I got were for around $100-$110. Goyf on eBay and MCM is WAAAAAY cheaper than goyf in shops.
May 12, 2015 4:05 p.m.
Serendipitous_Hummingbird says... #23
Since I've been bored out of my goddamn mind today, I've been alternating between checking to see if my profs have posted my grades and trying to do a probability distribution for the EV of a single MMA2015 pack. It isn't particularly thorough work and it is slow, but the results don't look great.
May 12, 2015 4:07 p.m.
The distribution will be awful. Some of those mythics and rare are just terribad, whereas others are awesome.
May 12, 2015 6:24 p.m.
The only card i want from MM2015 is Etched Champion, because:
A: The art is AMAZINGB: That would be a nice addition to my artifact deck
notamardybum says... #2
there are plenty of good commons/uncommons, but thats not why we buy boxes. personally, i feel that there are too many bulk shit rares to warrant a box. that being said it would only take a few good pulls to make it all worth it. ill probably buy a few packs, but no box
May 12, 2015 6:54 a.m.