It's not even funny how bad MM2 is, EV-wise.
Economics forum
Posted on June 12, 2015, 2:17 p.m. by KillDatBUG
This set is so much more terrible than I initially thought it was; it's not too hard to understand why after considering some of the circumstances, either. Cards have been damaged from the pack more often than not, money drafting is the worst especially at a $40 entry fee, and there are just so many bad rares to the point where it's not even worth trying to get something good. I opened at least a dozen packs of this shit so far, and I consider myself lucky for having not lost a ton of money.
My LGS owner hates it, too, because he claims that Wizards screwed up by making the set "draft-friendly"; I love drafting this set, but I'm almost inclined to agree. I mean, $40 per draft? Especially when you have to money draft to get your value back? sigh...
It's gotten to the point where he gave me two free packs, just because of how bad my pulls were one particular day.
What's the moral of the story? Whatever you do, don't buy any more packs of Modern Masters 2015. It's like entering a lottery at this point; please don't buy into this set and end up being like me and so many other people I know locally. If you have to buy into the set, buy singles! Or even better yet, buy/trade for all the things that Wizards didn't put into this one. Just don't crack packs.
That is all.
KillDatBUG says... #3
I understand the nature of buying packs, UrbanAnathema. It is essentially gambling, as you're trying to get something good whilst hoping you don't get something bad.
With that said, however, it's MM2 that really pisses me off in particular due to a few factors.
The vastly increased price per product.
Rarity balancing. (Comet Storm being just one example)
The policy of not reprinting cards from Innistrad block
The set just lacking so many important cards (Hello, Serum Visions!)
The set being built to draft, when it is in fact, terrible to draft.
And finally, the fucking packaging. Wizards, don't do this shit ever again. It's made it so that buying MM2 online is a FOLLY. A FOLLY, I SAY.
It's all of these factors that have combined together that have really pissed me off. I understand that I screwed up by expecting anything, but I've learned my lesson. The point of this thread is to warn other people to not make the same mistake that I did.
June 12, 2015 2:31 p.m. Edited.
canterlotguardian says... #4
I just buy singles. I learned my lesson doing Fate Reforged drafts. Even paying in $15 to draft (that's my local standard price for drafting), I made my money back once out of like ten or eleven drafts that I did. Now, granted, with most sets, I'm not drafting with the specific intention of making my money back, unless I'm spending my last bit of money on the draft and I just want to walk out with enough value to justify my impulse drafting. The last set I drafted for pure monetary value (not for the reason I just listed) was Conspiracy, and I definitely got my money back from that one. (Foil Edric, which was $20 at the time, paid for my draft in full, not to mention the Dack that I pulled and sold that same night for 1.5 times the price.)
So yeah. Tl;dr been burned by drafting too damn many times (and by the pull of cracking packs a trillion times more than that) so from now on, I'll buy singles. Cheaper (kind of) and a lot more efficient.
June 12, 2015 2:36 p.m.
KillDatBUG - I won't argue the EV distribution, because that is very well documented. However I disagree with two of your points: not reprinting Innistrad cards, and the set is terrible to draft.
First, the set is AMAZING to draft. I don't know what you're experiences have been, but me and my playgroup have nothing but good things to say about the draft format. It is deep, interesting, and has a lot of directions you can go. Just go watch LSV's first draft of MM15 on channel fireball and see what I mean.
Second, as per them not reprinting cards from Innistrad. They had to draw the line somewhere, and they chose to extend the end point of MM15 by two years. That was by design when you consider that the first Modern Masters was printed two years ago. This allowed Wizards to reprint cards from Zendikar, Scars of Mirrodin, and the M10 and M11 core sets. Sure we missed out on Innistrad, but that is mainly just fanboys being upset we didn't get to see Snapcaster Mage or Liliana of the Veil reprints. When we see Modern Masters 2017, and I believe we will, you can bet that both of those cards will be there. Is that far down the line? Yes. But those cards are too important to the Modern metagame to not reprint in another Modern Masters product.
June 12, 2015 2:39 p.m.
KillDatBUG says... #6
You know what's really shitty, canterlotguardian? My LGS actually used to do phantom drafts of DTK and other such sets up until last week, and at a fee of only $5.
Now what the fuck am I supposed to do? I guess I'm just not supposed to draft weekly anymore, since I just can't deal with not getting my money back so many more times than actually getting my money back. Damn shame, too; I really did love drafting without having to worry about pulling money rares.
June 12, 2015 2:40 p.m.
alpinefroggy says... #7
Well you have all these expectations for a premium product and it falls miserably short. The policy of making a great draft set while trying to make the product have money in it is just absurd to me. The product is meant to reprint cards to get them into the hands of people that would like to play modern. But it also wants to be an amazing draft set. In order to be an amazing draft set the product has to be flooded with bad cards for value purposes just to make limited good. But then this makes the EV extremely bad. On the flipside the draft part of it is really hampered by the fact the product cost so damn much.
This begs the question, why wizards? You just suceeded with conspiracy making an amazing draft experience that also reprinted random edh cards and some legacy staples. It was a great success. Why couldnt modern masters have been the same.
June 12, 2015 2:40 p.m.
KillDatBUG says... #8
My point about this set being terrible to draft stems from the fact that at $40 a draft, you have to money draft in order to make the thing worth. You have no idea how much worse this makes drafting, as that's all anyone who drafts here is ever interested in doing, simply because they can't realistically not do it.
I'd love to phantom draft this set; though it's far from perfect (Rarity issues, only a few good archetypes, too many "support" cards for specific archetypes, power level disparity among the uncommons), it's still better than Dragons or Fate.
Unfortunately though, that'll never happen.
June 12, 2015 2:46 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #9
I think the draft format is a bore and no where near worth the money for the gaming experience or cards you pull combined. The archetypes are way over forced and everything is about synergy. Zzzzzz... DTK DTK FRF is a superior Limited format.
June 12, 2015 2:46 p.m.
actiontech says... #10
I'm not sure why you would expect to get every dollar back when drafting. That's just not how it works. You're paying the entry fee for a chance to play the format with other people. If you have a good LGS the prize support for winning the tournament should compensate somewhat financially, but... you play to win the game! And that isn't (and shouldn't be) free. I 4-0'd my last MM draft, didn't pull any rares to speak of, but the prize was a sealed FTV: Annihilation. Well worth taking the 3rd Burst Lightning over the Blinkmoth Nexus in pack 3 IMO. Also, the set is amazingly fun to draft, I have no idea why you think it's bad. I've done 4 IRL drafts and enjoyed every one of them, and I'm doing another tomorrow.
June 12, 2015 2:48 p.m.
I mean, lets continue using lottery as an example. You can pay 5 dollars for a lotto ticket, with a chance of making, what, $5000? Or you can pay $30, for a chance at a few million.
This is the same thing. The packs are more expensive, and the potential rewards (foil chase mythics) is greater than a normal set.
Being upset at the price tag doesn't make sense. WotC has straight up told us what is in every pack. It's your choice to buy it.
June 12, 2015 2:51 p.m. Edited.
KillDatBUG says... #12
actiontech, please read my reasoning for why I think MM2 is a bad set to draft before making a blanket claim like that; I've made it a few times now in the OP and followup posts.
Just in case you didn't see it, though, I'll reiterate:
Rarity (Like Comet Storm or Mulldrifter)
Several underpowered archetypes, with only 3 or 4 good ones
The money drafting. Is. Fucking. STUPID.
Need I say more?
June 12, 2015 2:53 p.m.
KillDatBUG says... #13
I gave my reasons for why I'm upset at the price tag; whether you choose to agree with them or not is your problem.
June 12, 2015 2:54 p.m.
mathimus55 says... #14
I think the set it still going to be a success overall. We were incredibly spoiled with the last MM set that was puking value for MSRP to the point where nobody sold it at the retail price. MM15 still has value(granted it's very top heavy and not much for commons/uncommons) but the MSRP has been adjusted as such. Who would you rather be mad at, WoTC for raising the price to what it SHOULD have been the whole time or the stores for charging almost double the retail value? I think that's one thing people are overlooking this time in a big way.
The draft setting is...alright. I don't think it's the best but in no way is it bad either. Some people will get crappy pulls, the best card I pulled from Khans block drafts was a Savage Knuckleblade. That's not because the format isn't good, it's just a case of the pulls not going in your favor. It happens.
The packaging and collation issues: complete failure. It was an experiment, I'm sure they won't be doing it again. They know they messed up and are fixing the issue. Remember how great everyone thought these boxes were when they released the announcement though? People were praising wizards for the move.
In short, yes they missed on some things like packaging, key commons/uncommons and top heavy value but MM15 is a good(not great) draft set and is putting tons of staples out in the wild for us. Those were the main goals and they succeeded.
Also, I have no issues with the value in the set, I've only cracked 4 packs but have opened Cryptic Command, Fulminator Mage and Iona, Shield of Emeria. And Etched Monstrosity but we don't like him...
June 12, 2015 2:55 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 - Then you are in the minority, friend. DDF is a good Limited format, but I wouldn't call it a great one. MM15 IS legitimately a great Limited format. Just the other week I was all over the place after pack 1 and managed to salvage a great 5-color deck, winning my FNM. You're allowed to not like the format, that's fine, but I think you're missing out.
KillDatBUG - Of course people money draft in MM15, that's why it was printed. You draft/buy packs so you can open Tarmogoyf or Dark Confidant or Vendilion Clique! But some people get caught up and think that those $40 are for their cards, it's not! You're paying $30 for the packs, probably $5 goes towards the prize payouts and $5 goes to the store (my LGS does $40 drafts as well paying out in MM15). I have drafted this set on MTGO multiple times and have moneypicked a card when I knew there was a better pick.
As per your complaints: Rarity issues, only a few good archetypes, too many "support" cards for specific archetypes, power level disparity among the uncommons. You know what? Those are true of every draft format. Not every card can be good, not every card can be playable. You just need to learn the format and figure out what the open archetype is for your seat.
And to finally address your claim that the set is terrible to draft b/c it's $40. When I hear "the set is terrible to draft" I apply that to the act of drafting and playing the matches, not the upfront cost of the event. Sure, somebody will P1P1 a Dark Confidant or an Iona, Shield of Emeria, but you know what? That just means that your deck could get better because they are passing a Lightning Bolt or a Dismember!
June 12, 2015 2:59 p.m.
mathimus55 says... #16
Also, KillDatBUG the animosity towards others who are giving their stance on the set in response to you giving yours isn't very appealing. Nobody said you were wrong, they just offered their opinions which everyone is allowed to do. Not agreeing isn't someone's "problem."
June 12, 2015 3 p.m.
UrbanAnathema says... #17
I think in general, from a purely economic perspective if you're looking to acquire staples for Modern you should be happy about MM2015...and go buy singles.
Your criticisms are all valid. With that said, I don't think Wizards "screwed up" with the exception of the packaging issues. (And Serum Visions, they're rationale for that just reeks of BS.)
It's fun to draft, but if you're looking for value. Singles over sealed everytime, no matter the set.
June 12, 2015 3:05 p.m.
KillDatBUG says... #18
mathimus55, I only reacted that way because some of them didn't choose to pay attention to the points I made. I do apologize to those people if I came off that way, however; I'm personally just rather angry overall due to my experiences with this set. If others have had a better experience than I, that's fine; I just wanted to start a discussion here to see how other people feel.
June 12, 2015 3:07 p.m.
KillDatBUG says... #19
Thanks for the advice, UrbanAnathema. I do think I've finally learned my lesson from this set.
June 12, 2015 3:09 p.m.
TheAnnihilator says... #20
Well, I'd just like to point this out... I love the new packaging (the pull tab is awesome, IMO).
I just don't like that the packs aren't tamper-proof and that the cards can come with slight damage (though the damage doesn't particularly bother me, I know that it's a valid complaint for others).
June 12, 2015 3:35 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #21
JWiley129 I'm not a big fan of DTK DTK FRF and prefer all of the previous formats up until THS BNG JOU. That said I still prefer it to MM15. Since the GP I haven't seen anyone draft it at my shop or anyone asking to for that matter. We have a large dedicated Limited group at my LGS and they seem to prefer playing and paying for Dragons Limited. Really the only people I've encountered who like drafting it are people with Modern biases or are just tickled pink by nostalgia. I've drafted it, pulled an on color rare to recoup value, 3-0'd, and still didn't feel my money was well spent.
"Just the other week I was all over the place after pack 1 and managed to salvage a great 5-color deck, winning my FNM."
While you might see this as a sign of a good format I see the opposite. I'm sure you had fun in that draft but I would be questioning the draft skills of my pod.
June 12, 2015 3:45 p.m.
I've had very very good luck with modern masters this go around. The way I see it is I buy packs for fun and I know there is a VERY good chance of getting shit but instead of getting disappointed I brush it off because I know what my chances were going into it and if I want to get good cards then I buy them,that's what buying singles are for! I can somewhat see why some people are complaining but the cards in the set were spoiled long before it was released so its not like you didn't know. Ask, I did do what it was somewhat meant to do, which is lower the prices of cards. Yes they should have included more staples but that would just mean that the price of packs would skyrocket! Instead of complaining about buying packs and not liking the results go buy what you want and stop putting money towards something you dont like!
June 12, 2015 3:53 p.m.
"If you have to buy into the set, buy singles!" This is true for every set and we should all keep telling players this if they plan on opening packs to get the cards they're looking for because it's a lottery - gotta be smarter than that.
With that said, I bought two boxes at MSRP, drafted both with friends and netted $150. Feels good to come out on top (only because of a goyf pull), but having experienced the reverse so many times in the past, I don't open packs besides for drafting anymore and the bloodthirst to play the pack-lottery doesn't exist in me anymore.
Insight and research y'all provide lurkers here on the forums are very useful for those who don't know any better or need a kick in the pants not to play the pack-lottery.
June 12, 2015 4:34 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 - Here was the deck I drafted last week. If I recall correctly my pack 1 pick 1 was Spectral Procession, but tokens wasn't open. Then I managed to put together that deck. A reason why I love this format is in this draft I got Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre cast against me and lost the game, but turned it around and won the match.
Another reason I love this format is that crazy things can happen! I've won the game on turn 4 with a tokens deck. I've lost on turn 5 to the RB bloodthirst deck. I've had super interactive games and had games that didn't last that long.
June 12, 2015 4:36 p.m.
canterlotguardian says... #25
I learned my lesson about the pack lottery when I dropped about $300 on KTK and random other assorted packs from Walmart. My best pulls were an Abrupt Decay and foil Supreme Verdict from the same RTR pack, and... That's about it. No fetches out of about 30 KTK packs. So yeah, I'm done. With that, and with drafting. I'm sticking to singles from now on.
June 12, 2015 5 p.m.
Named_Tawyny says... #26
_ You're paying $30 for the packs, probably $5 goes towards the prize payouts and $5 goes to the store (my LGS does $40 drafts as well paying out in MM15)_
Is this common?
At the LGSes that I've played at, the entry fee goes entirely to prize support - the LGS makes its money by selling the packs (3 for the draft, and 1 for prize support, roughly. Meaning that if 8 people are drafting, they've just sold 32 packs (and 64 packs if we have two pods).)
What do other people's stores do?
June 12, 2015 5:04 p.m.
Named_Tawyny - That's my assumption, I have no other information to assert my claims.
UrbanAnathema says... #2
It's a TCG. You shouldn't have an expectation of making your money back all the time when buying sealed product. It's gambling, straight up. Its like being pissed at the Gaming Commission when you don't make your money back playing the Lotto.
With that said, there is zero excuse for the packaging issues.
June 12, 2015 2:24 p.m.