Khans Fetch Lands
Economics forum
Posted on Jan. 25, 2016, 2:18 a.m. by Skulldrey
Excuse me if this discussion has already been had, but I couldn't find it in the immediate recent threads.
I haven't been playing Magic as much lately, and as such, I've elected to sell a good portion of my collection - this may include my Khans fetch lands, of which I have complete sets.
My question to you all is will I get burnt if I sell/keep? In an ideal world I wouldn't have to ask this question, but I wanted to get some feedback.
Thanks!
JakeHarlow says... #3
They will all increase in value, and I imagine even the cheapest of them will be $30 or so after a couple of years.
January 25, 2016 2:28 a.m.
Do not keep them there is 0 reason for them to go up in the next year as they already see the maximum amount of play they can see in every format the reason they are as high as they are now is because they are in standard and they will lose that status after rotation.
January 25, 2016 9:05 a.m.
TheFoilAjani says... #7
EmblemMan You do know how supply/demand works, right? There are a limited number of fetches, as they aren't constantly printed. Sure, the price will dip a bit after rotation, but they will increase in price after that as there are a limited number of fetches and more people who join the game.
January 25, 2016 10:47 a.m.
ducttapedeckbox says... #8
If there is any chance of you returning to Magic in the long run, I'd keep them. Fetches should retain their current price tag or rise in the future. Even if you decide to keep them now and a few years later decide that you're never coming back to Magic, you'll still be able to sell them for the same price, if not more.
January 25, 2016 11:45 a.m.
TheFoilAjani I do know how supply and demand works. I also know that more goes into the card market then a 5th graders understanding of supply and demand but I'll explain it in terms of that since thats all people use as a reason for anything. I could not find any statistical evidence of this but I do think that it is hard to argue that the percentage of people who play magic from highest to lowest go Casual, EDH, standard, modern, legacy, and vintage (draft is in here somewhere possibly higher than modern but lower than standard? ***footnote). Casual in this situation is defined as just playing with cards you pull from packs and open in random boxes not necessarily buying singles and building competitive decks and playing at home. Now, people who play in casual and EDH, although they do take up potentially a large portion of players in this pot, mostly use 1 of each fetch often probably 3-5 on average as casual players don't often care about playing with play sets and commander is a singleton format. Standard, which is substantially larger in player base than modern and legacy, do care about playsets of fetches often more than one fetch, fair to say 8-12, so its safe to say that they do take up a LARGE portion of fetch "demand". This general rule of fetch lands in competitive decks can be used for modern and legacy as well on average 8-12 fetches. Since standard modern and legacy take up probably a smaller portion of the player base than casual and edh but still a large portion the playsets for each player will add up to more than the 1 of or 2 ofs of casual and edh player 3-5 is less than 8-12 even if the player percentage is higher for edh and casual. Considering the FACT that standard is a higher player percentage than modern and legacy will show that when you have more players in standard then modern and legacy and standard players stop playing with a card often (not always) the card price will drop because in simple terms there are a lot of fetches but not many in standard need them and so there is actually a LARGER SUPPLY than demand. You can see how much standard affected the high price of fetches now if you look at their price charts. Bloodstained mire for example before battle for zendikar was released and the new battle lands came out it was only about a 10 dollar card and SKY rocketed to 20 and stayed there BECAUSE OF STANDARD DEMAND this is the same for flooded strand polluted delta and wooded foothills (with varying prices before and after BFZ). After these rotate they will drop, how much? I dont know no one knows but they will not increase until the amount of players coming into modern and legacy (legacy of which is almost dead) SURPASSES that of the amount of players in all competitive formats at the time that they were in standard. Approximately, (just a random guess of mine) 5 years POST rotation.
TL;DR There will be a higher supply than demand, fetches will go down until a lot more people join the game and need them which, post rotation, will only be casual edh legacy and modern.
***Footnote: I forgot to add in draft players which I know is actually a rather large portion of magic players but as far as this explanation is concerned just consider that most fetches opened during drafting is sold out into the public making a larger supply than even mentioned before.
January 25, 2016 1:17 p.m.
TheFoilAjani says... #11
EmblemMan That is a good breakdown of the situation, except for two things; one, many standard players have and are moving to Modern, and two, Magic has an ever growing player population.
The player base for Standard is larger than that of Modern, Legacy, etc. However, a lot of people have moved over to those older formats due to various reasons (price, lack of depth, etc.). This creates less and less of a demand in the realm of standard as opposed to other formats. Standard is always going to have the most influence on prices on Standard cards, obviously. But the demand after rotation will be from Modern and such. You are right in that there will be a lot of supply after rotation. But after 2, 3 years the Eternal format player-base is likely to have grow to a size similar to the current standard player base.
Which is my second point. Due to WotC discontinuing Khans in the next 6 months, there will be a limited number of fetches going around. When new players decide to get into Modern, the fetches will mostly be in player hands, thus effectively driving supply down. That will lead to a higher price in the long run.
January 25, 2016 1:58 p.m.
Lastdaysgunslinger says... #12
I really dont see them going up until it is hard to find boosters for the set. Even after rotation you can still buy boosters of a set until the supply runs dry and that can take 2 + years after it rotates. Heck i can still buy return to rav at walmart right now.No matter who argues this,that,up,down doesnt matter. What matters is how bad you need money, that is the real question.
EmblemMan says... #2
its fine to sell now they wont go up for like another year at leastand its better to sell now before they potentially drop a couple dollars during or right before rotation
January 25, 2016 2:26 a.m.