market speculation
Economics forum
Posted on May 17, 2014, 9:11 p.m. by aintnothinbutmammals
Do you think that Elspeth, Sun's Champion and Mana Confluence will go up in value post rotation?
Servo_Token says... #3
I'd like to start the campaign for Elspeth Tirel in M15.
Mana Confluence probably won't be too terribly exciting, but I bet that elspeth will still be up there. She's still one of the best finishers for control decks, and as long as control can play white, they'll use her. Otherwise, she may find a home in a white devotion deck as a 2 of. Definitely seeing less use than she does now, though.
May 17, 2014 9:38 p.m.
I don't think Elspeth, Sun's Champion will fall much. Her worth has been proven every weekend since her release. How much she'll rise has yet to be seen.
Confluence, on the other hand, will probably go down unless extremely greedy 3-color decks become huge.
May 17, 2014 9:39 p.m.
GoldGhost012 says... #8
I think the only walker in existence with the potential to become JTMS price is Liliana of the Veil . But that would take a long-ass time.
May 17, 2014 10:16 p.m.
aintnothinbutmammals says... #9
I'm currently playing a mix of naya aggro and midrange and run a play set of Mana Confluence in my deck as well as shock lands. I have to say the efficiency they create early game is astronomical. It'd be hard to imagine the price going down post rotation due to how many decks require different mana variations in multitude.
May 17, 2014 10:19 p.m.
But Mana Confluence , while obviously great at mana fixing, hurts badly in combination with shock-lands. Try stabilizing against Boros Burn with 12 shock-lands and 4 Confluence.
May 17, 2014 10:21 p.m.
Servo_Token says... #12
isn't Liliotv already JTMS priced? I mean, the non-foils are both right there around $80 right now. Sure, the foils are pretty different, but still...
May 17, 2014 10:31 p.m.
Not even close. Liliana of the Dark Realms is $65 on TCG mid and JtMS is right at $100.
May 17, 2014 10:32 p.m.
CrazyLittleGuy says... #16
@thehatter831 Comparing Mana Confluence to Arid Mesa is like comparing Lhurgoyf to Tarmogoyf .
May 17, 2014 11:36 p.m.
Elspeth, Sun's Champion has proven to be the best card in Theros block constructed by a huge margin so there's not much of a risk of her dropping when rotation comes. Once she rotates out she'll be a couple dollars since she's just a bad card outside of slow standard.
May 18, 2014 12:41 a.m.
Well, CrazyLittleGuy's point is valid. Mana Confluence is decent, but it's got nothing on a fetch-land, which finds any color in your deck for 1 mana total total.
Aside from that, Mana Confluence is marginally worse than City of Brass , which currently rests at $3-$4, depending on what printing you're looking at (not counting Arabian Nights, obvs).
May 18, 2014 1:23 a.m.
Mana Confluence is strictly better than City of Brass . Mana Confluence doesn't let you get pinged by Rishadan Port
May 18, 2014 1:09 p.m.
No, it's not.
If you tap City of Brass , you get the mana instantly but the pain trigger goes on the stack. If you're at 1, you can gain life or kill your opponent with the mana without losing.
With Mana Confluence , you have to pay the life before you get anything from it.
May 18, 2014 1:12 p.m.
However the fact that Rishadan Port can just ping you is a much bigger downside. Even in modern, Deceiver Exarch can just ping you when it comes in.
May 18, 2014 1:14 p.m.
People have to be playing the card first before you can list its downsides, though.
Besides that, this is all just splitting hairs.
May 18, 2014 1:16 p.m.
strateupjee says... #24
I just want to put it out there that mana confluence has the capabilities to be a consistent 15-18 dollar land just because if M15 and Huey wiff on delivering playable dual lands, it will be the only mana fixing available that enters untapped, and, while yes it will hurt, people still play pain lands in all formats. Now this is all dependent on how the meta evolves and what gets printed, but it isn't outside the realm of possibility
May 18, 2014 1:47 p.m.
Every first set of a block has delivered playable dual-lands since... forever?
May 18, 2014 2 p.m.
CrazyLittleGuy says... #26
... "chill"? How did I in any way come across as upset or angry? 0_o
May 18, 2014 2:35 p.m.
aintnothinbutmammals says... #28
Your opponent. Can manually tap City of Brass to kill you.they can tap Mana Confluence as much as they want and it won't hurt you
May 18, 2014 3:41 p.m.
CrazyLittleGuy says... #32
:(
I don't really follow you. If I have conviction, does that imply that I'm upset? And I only use that term because it's an antonym of calm/relaxed, which is what "chill" means by definition. You don't tell someone that's not upset to "chill". It's strange being victimized here for voicing an opinion. I mean, where's the need to call me touchy?
How about if I phrased it like this:
Saying that "lands retain most of their value" is a somewhat narrow statement. The argument seems a bit too generic, and can't be applied in every situation. Take, for example, the pain lands (Caves of Koilos , Adarkar Wastes ) or the buddy lands (Sulfur Falls , Drowned Catacomb ), or even City of Brass . They were printed at the same rarity, but didn't maintain their value. Partially because they didn't get used outside of Standard, partially because many saw reprints. Not every land is Arid Mesa .
Saying that we should just check in ten years is missing the point. If someone is looking to invest in Mana Confluence , they would want to know beforehand what it will do in terms of price. They won't just do nothing, wait ten years, then look back and decide whether they should of/shouldn't of invested. In this case, the past doesn't matter nearly as much as the future.
And again, comparing Mana Confluence to Arid Mesa is NOT splitting hairs. Just like comparing Lhurgoyf to Tarmogoyf isn't splitting hairs. And neither is comparing Elspeth, Sun's Champion to Jace, the Mind Sculptor . The only reason that phrase came up was in the context of comparing City of Brass to Mana Confluence , which IS splitting hairs.
And if this is getting ridiculous, maybe you should stop perpetuating it. Just saying~
May 19, 2014 1:34 a.m.
After careful consideration I am going to have to side with the above after it was found that the original comment was not in any way something other than "Chill".
That said, its runs risk of hijacking the discussion so let it be over :P We must take care that we do not stray from the topic intended by the OP.
Edit. as fate would have it, the comment above is on a different page.
May 19, 2014 11:09 p.m.
Ohthenoises says... #44
yeaGO! can edit his posts, I want dis!
Also, mana confluence will stabilize about where City of Brass has settled at.
Elspeth, Sun's Champion is pretty stable, she is an AMAZING walker. However decks that like her aren't all that format warping so we will have to see what M15 brings.
zandl says... #2
-shrug-
Maybe? Maybe not?
It depends on what cards are in the next block set and (to a lesser extent) M15. They'll both obviously be good cards, but maybe U/W control (the place where Elspeth sees the most play by far) will be losing a ton of power and Mana Confluence probably won't be four-of in anything but hyper-aggressive decks. Maybe, considering Devotion and losing all of the multicolored RTR-block cards, mono-colored decks will become more popular across all five colors. That would certainly make Mana Confluence less desirable.
May 17, 2014 9:16 p.m.