MM2 and supply and demand
Economics forum
Posted on March 7, 2015, 6:55 a.m. by ChiefBell
Here's some fun maths for you guys regarding Goyf in MM2:
If MM2 follows MM1 then the following will be true: Goyf will be a mythic in a set with 14 others. One in 8 packs in a mythic on average. That means that only one in every 120 booster packs on average is going to be a Goyf. There are 24 booster packs in a booster box. On average therefore there is one Goyf per 5 booster boxes. That's 20 booster boxes for a single guy to get a new playset of Goyfs.
So let's proceed based on one Goyf per 5 booster boxes:
The rough, average, investment to obtain a playset of Goyf equates to around $4800 spent on MM2, based on MSRP.
1,000,000 boxes sold will result in roughly 200,000 Goyfs going into circulation. Even that's only enough for 50,000 Abzan players in modern, and others in Legacy and Vintage. A 2012 report suggests that there were 12 million Magic players in the world. We don't have any hard numbers to suggest how many boxes they WILL sell but the point is they need to sell a shit ton for it to even be a drop in the ocean.
Femme_Fatale says... #3
Oh, the amount of goyfs that will actually get put into circulation is a lot less. You have to consider the time frame, speculation, collectors, department stores, and hoarders.
Shouldn't this be in economics?
March 7, 2015 7:02 a.m.
yeah when mm1 was opened i believe goyf actually went up because it got people excited about goyf then the price rose because people wanted gofy but not to many were opening him
March 7, 2015 7:04 a.m.
Femme_Fatale : beat me at my own game haha. Moved to economics.
Indeed. The amount of goyfs that make it into modern and vintage/legacy decks will be a lot less.
March 7, 2015 7:13 a.m.
Well, that is sad. But Wizards really just can't make them as a Rare. All the people who bought Goyfs is going to lose a LOT of money. I don't think Wizards wants that...
March 7, 2015 7:15 a.m.
In my opinion no modern card should have ever been allowed to become as expensive as Tarmogoyf. They should have (had) a policy that says whenever a non-foil modern card becomes more expensive than $50 it will be reprinted asap. Period. And I mean a true reprint in a regular set, maybe even as a regular rare. That would keep prices for modern cards in an acceptable price range (though $50 for a single card is not exactly cheap...) at least.
But now it's too late for that, if they printed enough Tarmogoyfs to push them back into the $50 dollar price range all the people who bought them for full price would start a riot. Maybe they should come up with another format (how about megamodern?) since modern very clearly failed to be more accessible than eternal formats a long time ago already.
March 7, 2015 7:17 a.m.
MurderHood says... #8
Don't we need the 100 foil goyfs? idk how many foils there will be I was just guessing
March 7, 2015 7:21 a.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #9
WotC does not care about the secondary market NorthernRaven. They only care about profit, and the company is taking a hit because of it. I mean, just look at the articles on their work environment. It's terrible.
March 7, 2015 7:30 a.m.
NorthernRaven - Wizards have repeatedly stated they would never ever protect the collector community again, a la the reserve list. They say publicly they are (regarding modern and recent formats) far more interested in keeping prices low for players, rather than keeping them high for collectors.
March 7, 2015 8:11 a.m.
bijschjdbcd says... #11
Who cares if it ruins people's collections?!
People lost money on Onslaught Fetches, Peoplw will lose money on Zendi Fetches.
For the good of Modern it should get a meaningful reprint that reduces the price enough to make it accessible.
March 7, 2015 8:12 a.m.
JexInfinite says... #12
The secondary market can live off of the reserve list. Wizards should just do a YuGiOh and print it at common or something.
March 7, 2015 8:32 a.m.
I hate the saying that every vard should be under $XX. Deleted the giant rant lol
More goyfs will help regardless, foils are printed 1 to 1 relatively arnt they? So for example 250 cards in set means 1 foil every cards, 4 per 1,000, 4000 per 1 million packs, obviously its less than that since but example. And dont forget most of those 12million dont play outside the kitchen table, most of the remaining only play limited and standard, so the ratio is much much higher of goyfs to people
March 7, 2015 10:03 a.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #14
Open a Goyf get a foil one to buy the rest of the play set with. Foil in every pack GOYF GOYF GOYFING TOO U TARMATOO GOFY.
March 7, 2015 10:09 a.m.
mckin - one in 8 foils is a rare. One in 64 foils is a mythic. I THINK. Therefore one in 960 boosters is a foil goyf.
March 7, 2015 10:58 a.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #16
I wish I could get a box that had nothing but foil goys. I could buy all the decks I wish for in modern and edh.
March 7, 2015 12:15 p.m.
Modern Masters: 229 cardsModern Masters 2015: 249 cards
Here's a similar calculation of estimated value for the original MM set: [click me](http://www.hipstersofthecoast.com/2013/06/what-we-learned-modern-masters-ev-june-3/
(btw, just got home. just posting to subscribe to the thread. will read everything later. promise!)
March 7, 2015 12:59 p.m.
This is really interesting to know, thanks for posting Chief!
March 7, 2015 9:18 p.m.
CanadianShinobi says... #20
Yeah, see having Modern Masters is bloody counter intuitive if they want Modern to be accessible to people. It raises the prices of staples in the long term. Now not everyone should be able to be able to buy the $1000 deck, because it is a collectable card game after all, but I do believe that there should be some form of regulation of prices on material such as Modern Masters. Also... just I dunno... I do think Goyf is unreasonable for anyone even if I don't think everyone should have access to all the best stuff.
March 8, 2015 1:54 a.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #21
I think that modern should at MOST be triple the cost of the top standard decks. Not around 2 grand.
March 8, 2015 3:11 a.m.
JexInfinite says... #22
Femme_Fatale And that is why I play control. It's affordable, and always good. But seeing how a lot of standard decks are $400. which is ridiculous, Modern doesn't seem too crazy for a non-rotating format.
March 8, 2015 3:42 a.m.
It raises the cost of staples for somebody coming in with no staples, but it gives staples much cheaper to people who have none.
Yes, Goyfs went up after MM1, specifically because for every person who got 1 or 2 and wanted to play Modern, they needed 2 more. BUT, overall, more people became able to play Modern because of it, which was their goal.
More Goyfs go into circulation. They won't be enough to satisfy the demand, but they'll be more supply, which means more people will have them.
March 8, 2015 9:40 a.m.
Also, it has always, ALWAYS been the case for ever staple card forever, regardless of whether it's 30 bucks or 230 bucks, that it is cheaper and more efficient to buy it as a single than to hope to get it from packs.
Why Goyf suddenly gets to be trotted out as a card that will be inefficient and stupidly expensive to get 4 of from packs is a little absurd. The same is true, to various scales, for every chase card.
You want just that card? Buy it.
March 8, 2015 9:43 a.m.
Devonin :
"but it gives staples much cheaper to people who have none."
But it DOESNT. That's the point. Your average investment required to score a single goyf is $1200. There will be a small minority of people who do score a goyf on their first booster. There'll be a small minority who open hundreds of boosters and never get a single one. The point of taking the average is because it tells us what MOST people will experience. In this case MOST people are NOT going to get a goyf for cheaper. You might see 1000s individuals that score a goyf for $100 investment. You might see 1000s individuals that never score a goyf. We can't say that MM is a success because a tiny minority of people 'got lucky'. That's completely absurd. We need to judge modern masters by the quality of pulls that most individuals get.
"Yes, Goyfs went up after MM1, specifically because for every person who got 1 or 2 and wanted to play Modern, they needed 2 more. BUT, overall, more people became able to play Modern because of it, which was their goal."
That's simply not true in regards to decent tier 1 modern decks if we refer to Goyf. I don't know a single person who said that MM1 enabled them to build a goyf-heavy deck. In fact I know people who said MM1 was frustrating because it allowed them a single goyf but not enough fodder to get any more. Rendering it somewhat pointless for them. If you're referring to shoddy T2 and below decks then sure but I'd argue thats not really 'playing modern'. I think it depends on whether you think that most of the cards in that set were useful enough to be played in modern, and my argument would be no. A vast number of them were just subpar.
"More Goyfs go into circulation. They won't be enough to satisfy the demand, but they'll be more supply, which means more people will have them."
That's a logical fallacy. More goyfs in circulation doesn't mean more goyfs in the hands of players that actually want to play goyf-heavy decks. Goyfs in the hands of collectors are useless. Goyfs in the hands of shops is useless. A single goyf in a BG deck is useless. So simply 'owning a goyf' is not enough for us to assume that access to modern has been improved (which we need to remember is wizards stated goal - I'm not just making that up as the target). So what I'm saying is that the supply is too low for it to actually make a real impact.
Furthermore, as we know, demand increased so the price increased, this means actually post-MM FEWER people will be able to get them from that point on.
"Also, it has always, ALWAYS been the case for ever staple card forever, regardless of whether it's 30 bucks or 230 bucks, that it is cheaper and more efficient to buy it as a single than to hope to get it from packs."
I understand what you're saying but there's a massive, massive difference between spending $1200 on average to get a goyf, and spending $600 on average to get a goyf. We KNOW that boxes are inefficient, but the real question is just HOW inefficient are they? My answer to that question at the moment is quite clearly - unacceptable so.
March 8, 2015 10:11 a.m.
As long as you think of the step a player is taking is "I'm buying MM2 to get Tarmogoyf" you'll never see what I'm talking about, since what I'm talking about is that using that logic is ignorant -and- stupid.
March 8, 2015 10:17 a.m.
No, I don't think thats the main motivation at all. But I think a fair number of people might be tricked into thinking they have at least a decent shot at pulling one - which isn't true. I don't care about your motivation in buying MM2, I'm just highlighting the fact that if you think you're going to get decent pulls, you probably aren't.
I certainly wouldn't draft this set ONLY for a good time. I'd want to draft the set for a good time, and to hopefully get a few good pulls. By highlighting how unlikely it is to get said pulls, I'm basically saying 'you should be only drafting MM for fun, and not bother with it from an economic standpoint'.
Thanks for making an assumption about my argument that's neither necessary nor sufficient, though.
March 8, 2015 10:21 a.m.
"But it DOESNT. That's the point. Your average investment required to score a single goyf is $1200. There will be a small minority of people who do score a goyf on their first booster. There'll be a small minority who open hundreds of boosters and never get a single one. The point of taking the average is because it tells us what MOST people will experience. In this case MOST people are NOT going to get a goyf for cheaper. You might see 1000s individuals that score a goyf for $100 investment. You might see 1000s individuals that never score a goyf. We can't say that MM is a success because a tiny minority of people 'got lucky'. That's completely absurd. We need to judge modern masters by the quality of pulls that most individuals get."
If the only pull you give a crap about is Goyf, Sure. If the only pull you give a crap about is Goyf, just go buy a Goyf.
"That's simply not true in regards to decent tier 1 modern decks if we refer to Goyf. I don't know a single person who said that MM1 enabled them to build a goyf-heavy deck. In fact I know people who said MM1 was frustrating because it allowed them a single goyf but not enough fodder to get any more. Rendering it somewhat pointless for them. If you're referring to shoddy T2 and below decks then sure but I'd argue thats not really 'playing modern'. I think it depends on whether you think that most of the cards in that set were useful enough to be played in modern, and my argument would be no. A vast number of them were just subpar."
1/ I'd say -most- people who 'play modern' are not playing Goyfs, and are "shoddy T2" players, so by dismissing them as somehow worthless, you're really being a bit of a dick to a lot of people who play this format
2/ Anybody who -does- intend to play "real" T1 modern is simply going to have long since invested the money/trade into getting goyfs, meaning they don't need any of the goyfs in this set at all.
"That's a logical fallacy. More goyfs in circulation doesn't mean more goyfs in the hands of players that actually want to play goyf-heavy decks. Goyfs in the hands of collectors are useless. Goyfs in the hands of shops is useless. A single goyf in a BG deck is useless. So simply 'owning a goyf' is not enough for us to assume that access to modern has been improved (which we need to remember is wizards stated goal - I'm not just making that up as the target). So what I'm saying is that the supply is too low for it to actually make a real impact."
You're defining "access to modern" as "have 4 Goyf" which is so absurd I don't even think I will address it more.
"I understand what you're saying but there's a massive, massive difference between spending $1200 on average to get a goyf, and spending $600 on average to get a goyf. We KNOW that boxes are inefficient, but the real question is just HOW inefficient are they? My answer to that question at the moment is quite clearly - unacceptable so."
There are more things in heaven and earth, ChiefBell, than are dreampt of in your playset of Tarmogoyf.
March 8, 2015 10:22 a.m.
lemmingllama says... #29
Well, Tarmogoyf will likely be reprinted in every Modern Masters set from now until eternity, and eventually the supply will go up enough that the price will go down. Wizards never said they were going to reprint so many of every Modern staple that their prices will plummet. However, they do plan on reprinting Modern staples that are rare. This way they can ensure that there are copies in print and that players can have access to them. I'd rather have some reprints than none, and better in a product like Modern Masters than in a FTV:Expensive Stuff that has a MSRP of over $1000.
Also remember that the set should be full of reprints of other cards. Tarmogoyf won't be the only card people pull, they will also be able to load up on things like Serum Visions that have lower prices. I still don't think it justifies the current MSRP, but more cards in circulation is rarely a bad thing.
March 8, 2015 10:24 a.m.
Devonin: Just to clarify. I have my playset of goyf. I have no personal worries about Goyf. Goyf is just a stand-in for 'insert expensive mythic here'. You're completely and utterly missing the point. Goyf could be karn. It could be emrakul. It could be whatever else will be in the mythic slot. The numbers don't change. This is not a thread purely about goyf. This is a thread about the likelihood of pulling ANY mythic in the set.
March 8, 2015 10:27 a.m.
lemmingllama says... #31
Well, here is a fun chart someone did for MM1. Tarmogoyf is serious business.
March 8, 2015 10:36 a.m.
And obviously tarmogoyf, being a mythic could be your chance of opening any of the set of mythics.
March 8, 2015 10:44 a.m.
"That's simply not true in regards to decent tier 1 modern decks if we refer to Goyf. I don't know a single person who said that MM1 enabled them to build a goyf-heavy deck. In fact I know people who said MM1 was frustrating because it allowed them a single goyf but not enough fodder to get any more."
very weak inductive reasoning in that you don't know anyone so that makes it a true statement. maybe every other person on the forum does know someone or is that person, even if it is just 1 person, that completely invalidates your statement of truth.
"More goyfs in circulation doesn't mean more goyfs in the hands of players that actually want to play goyf-heavy decks."
yes it does. sure a portion go to collectors, stores, and players that will never trade it their 1 or not know what to do with it, ive seen plenty of people who now have 4 modern masters goyf and didnt own goyfs before.
"Furthermore, as we know, demand increased so the price increased, this means actually post-MM FEWER people will be able to get them from that point on."
no, more people were able to get them, but the price went up, demand just went up more than supply. maybe player A couldnt get them before bc of price , but player B who used MM as a good time to get into modern has the $ to spend and buys 4, so even though player A still cant get them, 1 more person was able to.
just being nit picky but I understand a lot of the points and what was inferred. more supply means greater availability, maybe not in your store or friends trade binders, but over all. and I have problems with some of Devonins arguments to lol just running outta time to type
March 8, 2015 12:11 p.m.
I think regarding point 2 you may be conflating people who traded for and also pulled MM goyfs with those who merely opened 4 MM goyfs. I find it really, really hard to believe that you know people who literally opened so many boosters they pulled 4 MM goyfs. Or do you really?
March 8, 2015 12:32 p.m.
Almost nobody feels entitled to get 4 of any other mythic by opening packs of any other set, why is your inability to field an expectation of getting 4 goyfs somehow more serious besides "I want them more" and "they are worth more money on the secondary market"?
March 8, 2015 1:46 p.m.
Literally my only motivations in posting this thread were to point out two things:
Drafting MM2 is not an efficient way to obtain the mythic you want.
It is highly probable that the goyf reprint will do little to affect the price.
Ie. My motivations to provide information.
I have no expectations. Perhaps other people do. This forum post isn't about me and what I know, or you and what you know. This is for the benefit of absolutely everyone. I'm not even going to crack MM packs. I'm really unsure why you think my sole motivation is somehow related to me obtaining (insert mythic here). I literally just came here to post some numbers so that others can make a decision about whether they want to crack packs or not and whether there'll be significant changes to the secondary market.
March 8, 2015 5:42 p.m.
Serendipitous_Hummingbird says... #37
Now, I'm not saying that we need another Chronicles. The Chronicles editions of Blood Moon and City of Brass are still the cheapest on the market.
However, we do need a regular supply of modern staples.
There are several ways to do this. The first is the Modern Masters approach, which just means pump out a staple compilation every year.
The other is the approach similar to the clash packs. It seems pretty clear that Wizards is intent on putting standard staples in Clash Packs (two coursers, a hero's downfall, et.). What if there were modern format clash packs?
On a side note, what is the justification for printing Tarmogoyf at mythic? He's a vanilla beatstick. A damn good one, but still just a beatstick. That seems more along the lines for a rare than the flashy effects that mythics should have.
And if 'goyf has only seen printings at rare in Future Sight and mythic in MMA, has it actually ever had a major print run? It's a playset in every format where it is legal, but the demand outstrips supply by a ridiculous margin.
And one last sidenote. I spent a lot of time and effort to acquire a playset of Ravnica Remands. I'm aware that I will lose value on them with MMA2015, and I'm okay with that. I want players like me who need remands to not have to work as hard as I did for them. But what I do want to know is what art will the MMA2015 ones have? I'm very fond of the RAV art and flavor text, so if the new ones are like the duel deck printing, I will hold onto mine. Anyone know if they'll get the duel deck art, the rav art, or new art?
March 8, 2015 6:18 p.m.
Serendipitous_Hummingbird says... #38
Or we could just ban Tarmogoyf. The format as warped around it (Relic of Progenitus anyone?) and it is simply broken. In an format where everyone and their grandmothers are running fetches, removal, creatures, and disruption/cantrips, 'goyf will easily be a 4/5 for 
. That is broken. And because he doesn't require you to really do anything to make him that big (like Boneyard Wurm or Dungrove Elder), anyone with access to a Breeding Pool can cast their own goyf. It's not that it is killing modern like Treasure Cruise, it's that a highly splashable card that at the very least will be an 0/1 and will routinely be a T2 2/3 or 3/4 is just stupidly efficient. WotC has even said mistakes are why 'goyf doesn't cost 
.
March 8, 2015 6:29 p.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #39
I'd say the format is more warped around Siege Rhino than it is Tarmogoyf. Goyf is easier to kill and prevent and easier to use. Siege Rhino is much harder, and has trample, AND has an ETB ability.
March 8, 2015 6:44 p.m.
JexInfinite says... #40
I think we need to see how many good mythics there actually are.
If all of the mythics are at a high standard, the set would be MUCH better. Let's pray for no Worst Fears.
March 8, 2015 6:53 p.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #41
There isn't going to be anything from Innistrad and above in that set JexInfinite.
March 8, 2015 7:06 p.m.
JexInfinite says... #42
Vedalken Shackles, Vendilion Clique, Sword of X and Y, Bob, Batterskull, Phyrexian Obliterator. There are a lot of potential good mythics for the set.
March 8, 2015 7:11 p.m.
Serendipitous_Hummingbird says... #43
"I'd say the format is more warped around Siege Rhino than it is Tarmogoyf. Goyf is easier to kill and prevent and easier to use. Siege Rhino is much harder, and has trample, AND has an ETB ability."
I'm not so sure, Femme_Fatale. It might just be because I play merfolk (Spreading Seas and Tectonic Edges) but Siege Rhino is not that much of a threat. The mana cost is restrictive enough that the entire decks needs to be geared toward Junk. Any disruption to the mana base, even a bad hand, can delay the rhino by a few turns. I also think that its ETB effect is not broken, although it is remarkably good. Junk needs a way to stabilize after shocks, fetches, and thoughtseizes, and it'll do that.
Siege Rhino is an incredibly powerful use of four mana. But so are Wrath of God, Sower of Temptation, Obstinate Baloth, and others.
The fact that it is impossible to run Siege Rhino outside of Junk, and the inability to play it before T4 w/o dorks means (at least to me) that it is restrictive enough to (barely) justify its power level.
Tarmogoyf is a siege rhino without the free Healing Salve and Lava Spike that can be played T2 and only requires you to run a single green source.
Cruel Moon, UR Delver, and other fringe decks not infrequently splash green for access to 'goyf. That is what makes it so broken. It can be played to great effect in decks that barely work to include it.
That's just my two cents.
March 8, 2015 7:40 p.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #44
Tarmogoyf can be bolted though. Siege Rhino can't. And yes, it is mainly because you play merfolk, a much more faster deck so it doesn't see the threat of Siege Rhino. The only removal spells that hit Siege Rhino in modern right now are Maelstrom Pulse, Dismember, Path to Exile, wraths, Celestial Purge, Combust, Reality Shift and the soon to come out Roast. Most of those are sideboard material as one or two ofs in specific decks. The only one out of all of those that sees widespread play is Path to Exile. The removal spells that hit Tarmogoyf are all the above except Celestial Purge and Combust with the added addition of any burn spell (there's about 9) and Abrupt Decay. The biggest difference is that Abrupt Decay and burn spells are used MUCH more on their own then all of the combined other spells mentioned that remove Siege Rhino (exception to Path).
March 8, 2015 7:59 p.m.
One of my regular Modern players plays merfolk with a Dismember main board with some Darkslick Shores in there to occasionally save on the life. It's in there basically for Tasigur, Rhino, and Exarch
March 8, 2015 8:38 p.m.
Blind_Guardian says... #46
I can tell you all that here in Sweden the so-far effect of the reprint is absolutely nothing. Due to the few amount of stores here that will distribute MMA 2015 and due to the slightly higher price and high-demand I fear that the price will continue up. Sudden drops or increases in price in USA has almost no effect here. Also even less stores sell indivindual cards which makes the goyf-price a problem for the secondary-market to solve. And I think you know how that usually goes.
Hjaltrohir says... #2
Wow, that is just incredible. I have no hope of getting my playset then :(.
March 7, 2015 7:01 a.m.