MM2015 Statistical Analysis
Economics forum
Posted on May 25, 2015, 6:12 p.m. by sixsamuraisoldier
Inspired by you guys I decided to do my own analysis of Modern Masters 2015 boxes. First, here is my analysis: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ahI9Vur_GsuMrPbRifLVUbfI83uMKG0klaF6sXWUQX4/edit?usp=sharing I took 100 samples from http://www.magicdrafting.com/modern-masters-2015-sealed/ Because magicdrafting.com uses commons and uncommons to calculate the pool, the pool price is not accurate. So, I looked at around 10 pools and found that the price difference between the pool and the sell able price of the rares and mythics to be around $125. Due to this, I have two sets of data, the pool prices and the adjusted pool price which is simply pool price-$125. Here is the raw data, A is before adjustment and B is after adjustment. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1n9Oi1RO5kUOtlAMDFlXpHDV3US6fUxMuv-Ky-OvF7eE/edit?usp=sharing Some interesting observations:The mean and median are pretty close together despite the range being very large.The standard deviation is very high, especially the relative standard deviation after adjusting for commons and uncommons. This means that you likely need to buy multiple boxes to ensure you don't get comet storms and if you do, your next box a goyf to save it.Your probability of breaking even is about 80% even after adjusting for commons and uncommons.I would love some feedback and comparison to other analyses, also if I did something wrong, be sure to call me out!Thanks in advance guys :)TL;DR: Read the whole thing :P
Rayenous says... #2
I'm now selling...
A slightly used Horse Shoe, that is slightly uncomfortable to use appropriately. :)
I've bought 4 boxes at very good prices.
First 2 boxes were my pre-orders at $250CDN ($203 US)
Opened one box, sitting on the other.
Box opened was over $400US value. - Retail value, not "attainable cash" value... but since I plan on keeping these cards and eventually playing them, it's all a plus for me.
Second 2 boxes were at $270CDN (220 US)
Opened one box, planning to draft with the other.
This box opened was over $450US value.
Both boxes I opened so far had a Tarmogoyf.... other noteable cards:
9 packs into the second box, I was getting worried... nothing but junk rates and $0.50 foils... then, pack 10 was a Foil Remand and a Cryptic Command... almost every pack after that was value.
One thing to note though... even without the Goyfs, the packs more than paid for themselves.
May 25, 2015 9:07 p.m.