Monty Python Secret Lair
Economics forum
Posted on July 29, 2024, 1:49 p.m. by RiotRunner789
Was looking forward to this one since Monty Python's and The Holy Grail is one of my favorite movies. Set an alarm for 10 min before, made the mistake of the wrong time zone. No worries, just have to wait a few hours. Can't get back immediately but get on 50-ish minutes into the sale. Add both Montys and Bloomburrow and wait in the checkout line for a little over 20 minutes.
When I get through the line, my cart is empty... Try to re-add them but they are now sold out...
Why can't wizards predict demand at all? I hated Mythic editions for this exact same reason. Oh well, another secret lair missed.
Anyone else have trouble with this Secret Lair?
That's so lame... I remember way way back in the day when Ebay was new my parents talking about some kinda auction snipe software that would bid on things at the last possible moment..... I can only assume a similar thing for scalpers is what's going on here.
Regardless I'm sorry to hear that you took the time to get ahead of it amd still came up empty handed that stinks.
July 29, 2024 6:17 p.m.
RiotRunner789 says... #4
I appreciate the advice to complain on social media, but tappedout is literally the only social media platform I use (and I use it primarily to goldfish/deckbuild).
I get some of the reasons Wizards want a limited print run. Printing machines can only print x cards over time and I imagine they set their numbers so they print at max capacity. Players don't want to wait up to a year to get their cards (looking at you Heads I Lose). It let's Wizards transition smoothly to the next product.
The main problem with limited print run is it gives waaay too much power to scalpers. The Monty volumes went for $30. Online their currently at about $250. Even if they only sell half of what they buy at double price, they still end up ahead (money back plus essentially free cards). With limitless print runs, it was more speculative and risky which resulted in less demand from scalpers. There is no downside anymore to buying as many as you can get and reselling now which hurts the average magic collector / secret layer enthusiast.
I wish Wizards would do a mix. Pre-print the cards and guarantee quick shipping for the first X customers. However, continue to sell for at least a given time period (like 24hr OG secret lair) to give everyone a chance to buy your product at a fair price, albeit longer shipping.
July 29, 2024 7:48 p.m.
Gidgetimer says... #5
They should be available for the entire duration of the drop. If they want to preprint so that some number of people can get them instantly that is fine. I have never had a problem with waiting for lairs, but I also didn't buy any of them that took over 6 months to ship.
To your point about using no other social media, I made the twitter account specifically to complain to WotC. I used to buy about $300-400 worth of lairs a year and have not gotten any this year because I do not have a job where Noon EST is a time I can be online. So the lair that would entice me to buy has been sold out every single time.
July 29, 2024 9:53 p.m.
ork_mcgork says... #6
It's the nature of pre-producing a limited-edition product, unfortunately. WotC tried the print-to-demand and (at least from waht AlphaInvestments on youtube shared), many didn't make enough sales to be profitable. I personally blamed that on there being aa steady stream of bad or too niche Secret Lairs, but that's for another time.
The sellouts guarantee them a set amount of profit, even though it leads to scalping and many bad feels. This is the first one in a LONG time I was considering, but didn't bother since I knew I couldn't get on in time and won't pay scalper prices.
July 30, 2024 5:06 p.m.
Gidgetimer says... #7
I'd be interested in what "many didn't make enough sales to be profitable" means with modern printing technology. 20 or even 15 years ago I could understand that a certain amount of sales would be necessary for retooling the machines to be profitable. In an era of digital files, print to demand of a small print run is much more manageable. You can get custom tokens in a MTG like size and card stock quality for $1 each off of Etsy. At $5/card and a total quantity that I am sure dwarfs an Etsy seller I fail to see how WotC isn't making money off of every print to order product.
(I very much dislike Rudy and so won't be watching Alpha Investments to see what his take is.)
July 30, 2024 6:31 p.m.
I mean, if fans of an IP who want to get universe beyond cards can't get them, then really, why do we even have universe beyond cards? The whole idea I would think would be to spark something fun in players who want to have cards of some of their favorite franchises, but making those cards in a poorly managed system where players who want them just can't get them, I really feel like that takes anything that would be fun about universes beyond and makes it a huge shot to the gut. Hey, you like this thing, well we made it, but it's also not for you...so... not every product is for every player, even if you like it.
And honestly, I don't buy the idea that the problem with demand is that some SLs underperform, that's a whole bunch of sideways speech. Do some not do as well? Sure, but at the same time, I don't believe for a second that wizards is taking a loss on any secret lair, just because it is such a low investment. The fact that something isn't as profitable as another something does not devalue the first something, that's a fundamental part of any business. McDonalds sells salty fries because they make the highest profit on soda. Some SLs will be duds, that's for sure, but for a company to not be able to produce hits because they are so scared of duds, that's simply bad management.
August 1, 2024 4:48 p.m.
Prof had a good video on this topic I watched yesterday, he was talking about not buying drops until they go back to print to demand. I personally am not buying any while this is on, merely on principle, I don't like toxic business practices like this, especially when the only people benefiting are suits (stuff like drops and precons are money laundering, randomized stuff is legal gambling). One of the only drops I got after they switched was the Cat/Dog deck, I knew that tons of people who probably wanted that deck even more than me wouldn't be getting a copy. That really sucks a lot of the fun out of a thing, it's almost like sharing joy is part of what makes us a well rounded human, and exclusionary and exploitative practices are antithetical to that.
I have to agree with Gidgetimer, I cannot see mathematically how they could ever lose money on a Drop that is literally print to demand. They don't pay artists a ton, and the costs associated with short print runs aren't all that high these days. People can produce high quality duplicate cards for very, very little money (I only proxy in cEDH, where it's that or sell my collection to build 1 deck, and I make my own very bad proxies with a pen and paper), as is pointed out you can get them custom for $1 apparently.
I also don't care for Rudy's content, and am not convinced he's a good faith participant in the community, so if he's saying 'some drops lost money' I'm probably more than skeptical. Also, if they were 'struggling to profit off of some drops' how exactly is printing a whole bunch in advance a reasonable strategy?? It just means you've sunk your costs up front with the disadvantage of not being able to sell extra copies of the incredibly popular drops, it's literally the worst of both worlds for the company. Can anyone else fill me in how it's possible for WotC to lose money on a print to demand drop that costs at minimum $30? Going to short print was terrible business, I hope the share holders rip them a new one over it.
I think the short print run stuff is because people complained about the value of Drops, and WotC deliberately misconstrued this to mean they should make drops 'rarer', not print better cards in drops (and they just keep printing so many of the same cards... I struggle to find homes for Consecrated Sphinges I already have, why would I want more Sphinges?! I would argue I already have a finery of Sphinges and need no more, so why does WotC insist on printing cards that are outdated in their Drops? They could have printed Esper Sentinel, but they didn't because they wanted to 'save' Esper Sentinel's 'value' for later while denying any card has 'monetary value' to them). It was a bad plan and it seems to be going poorly, so I'm pleased by that at least.
I like Niko9's point here, even if a business losses money on something, it can be a loss leader and bring in way more business than they'd otherwise have. It used to be way cheaper to buy a lot of minor necessities at convenience stores, because they were willing to lose 50 cents selling you cheap milk to get you in the door, just in case you're bad at math and play the lottery.
August 2, 2024 8:41 a.m.
DreadKhan Ha, yeah maybe it's just because it's something I deal with a lot, but it just makes me be like, how do they not get what's going on here? At work I run a business that sells 30-40 different products a week and I have about 5 that I know we lose money on, but those 5 things are things that somebody else doesn't have, and that's their value, making customers happy is the value. Wizards sales strategies seem like they think they have no competition, and that's so far off it's crazy.
Gidgetimer says... #2
I was at work, but a friend of mine logged on when the sale started and waited in the line for 70 minutes after adding exactly the drops he wanted and the 2 monty python for me. He was able to purchase, but there is no way in hell I would have gotten it without his help.
I would recommend tweeting at WotC (@Wizards). I already have. Maybe include the link to where they said they feel like they know what demand will be. (https://magic.wizards.com/en/news/announcements/speeding-up-secret-lair-shipping)
July 29, 2024 6:17 p.m.