Narset the PW
Economics forum
Posted on March 5, 2015, 1:57 a.m. by FinchFalcon
She's priced 40-45 dollars. So was Nissa, so was Sarkhan, and they both fell. Is she going to as well, or is it worth preordering? I'm asking from a collector's standpoint, I don't need playsets, just a single will do.
ZooGambler says... #3
Don't buy into the hype. Wait a month, see what's going on in the meta/what is actually working. We don't even have the whole set released yet and there could potentially be something even stronger/hoser.
March 5, 2015 2:06 a.m.
SimicPower says... #4
Never preorder a planeswalker. Ever.
Just my two cents. I guess you can do whatever you want; it's your money.
March 5, 2015 2:08 a.m.
FinchFalcon says... #5
Thanks all. I was leaning towards waiting anyway (who knows, I might pull one), but I'd heard people speculating that she would hold value for her effect on eternal formats. I think waiting to see is the right call.
March 5, 2015 2:32 a.m.
SimicPower says... #6
Funny, I've realized that when I really only want a singleton of a card I can usually obtain it for much cheaper than actually purchasing it myself. For example, if I attend the prerelease, I will often pull the card or a card of equal value that I can trade for it. If I don't pull it at the prerelease, I might find it in prize packs or drafting or whatever. This is without buying any standalone packs (an awful investment) or actually purchasing the card. I pulled my Ugin in my one prize pack I won from a commander tournament.
March 5, 2015 2:54 a.m.
ChiefWannaHacka says... #7
While I generally agree waiting on obtaining planeswalkers, it should be noted that she costs 4 and essentially starts at 7 loyalty, while simultaneously almost always replacing herself. This has huge inplications in eternal formats where she dodges Abrupt Decay, is hard to kill through combat/burn, and she says draw a card in the right shell (Which in U/W is literally almost any shell)
March 5, 2015 3:34 a.m.
EndStepTop says... #8
ChiefWannaHacka the problem ia shes competiting with JtMS outside of modern. She may see fringe as a fun singleton wjile getting tested, but I doubt she'll see large play outside of that.
March 5, 2015 5:11 a.m.
I see her being heavily played in both standard and modern, and therefore, personally, do not see her falling in price. Her +1 alone is enough for control decks to win the game, her -2 does stupid things with Treasure Cruise or Cryptic Command and her ultimate is near enough an auto win against a large proportion of decks.
March 5, 2015 5:33 a.m.
EndStepTop says... #10
Haven't blue control decks been in decline in modern lately? I don't know if she'll give them the gas they nees to be that relevant. Similar things were said about Nissa and the last Garruk both fell.
March 5, 2015 5:43 a.m.
Nope. UWR midrange and control have always been pretty solid decks. Declined a tiny bit due to the aggro presence but now that midrange is in they can be back in business - the format has slowed a tiny bit, which is fantastic for them. They're not THAT popular but they're not bad at all.
The key here is that Narset costs 4 mana and starts on 6 loyalty. She's going to survive for a long time in any deck that can bounce threats back to hand, use counterspells, and spot removal. Speculation about Nissa and Garruk was stupid because they cost 5 and 7 mana, which just isn't achievable in modern. They were always going to be useless because that kind of mana can't be achieved in any sensible way in green. You don't have counterspells in green to stall out the game, for example.
The other thing about her is just the fact that with spot removal she can set up soft locks. You play Path to Exile or Dismember and rebound it. The opponent knows that they can't play a creature or it'll just die the next turn. It's a really, really strong mechanism of advantage because it makes slower decks utterly useless. The only way around it is for them to play multiple creatures, but to be honest by that point the control deck is gaining so much card advantage it doesn't matter. What Narset promises a control player is that they can turn all of their spells into 2-for-1s, which is basically how control wants to win. They hope that things like Supreme Verdict gain 2 or 3 for 1s. Cryptic Command fills the role of 2 cards. Sphinx's Revelation fulfils the role of two cards. Narset allows your Lightning Bolt to fill the role of 2 cards. It's just a really solid advantage. When the control player has 4 cards in hand and you're down to 1 or 2 - that's when the game is lost.
March 5, 2015 5:57 a.m.
Basically - She does something that's fairly subtle, but very important.
March 5, 2015 5:57 a.m.
EndStepTop says... #13
I'm glad, 
based control still has a pulse. My next question would be if her potential for use in modern outweigh her starting price tag? Most PW start absurdly high due to demand from standard players and casual players.
March 5, 2015 6:30 a.m.
She'll stay absurdly high if she is indeed played in modern. She's stupid in EDH, will be fantastic in Standard, and many people think she'll be good in Modern.
I don't see her below $40 IF she is popular in modern too.
March 5, 2015 6:39 a.m.
Look at it this way - Sarkhan was $40 when he came out and was used for a while (mainly in Mardu) but now that the deck is obsolete and no one uses him, he's down to about $10. Narset's price will be affected entirely by the Standard meta - mainly whether UW(B) control will do well or not. If it fails to perform, she'll go down significantly, but with cards like Ojutai's Command I think the deck will be fairly strong. Once she rotates out, however, the price will definitely fall because of the fact that a)it's out of Standard, and b)Modern doesn't have as much of a demand or want for her since she's four mana in a much faster format. She might hold after rotation though, as Thoughtseize likely will (for example).
March 5, 2015 6:41 a.m.
So we go from: "Once she rotates out, however, the price will definitely fall"
To: "She might hold after rotation though, as Thoughtseize likely will (for example)."
I'm putting money on that she'll hold.
March 5, 2015 6:50 a.m.
Alright, I had some conflicting points in there. My apologies.
March 5, 2015 7:29 a.m.
Actually in some ways your points highlight the nature of speculation. We don't really KNOW. We can only guess and look at previous examples.
March 5, 2015 7:31 a.m.
lemmingllama says... #19
I can't see Narset holding at 40 dollars. She is probably going to drop to 25? and then hold there, although while the hype is going on she will still be 30-35. Still, her price will drop a little when she rotates out, but it will also jump when the first half of Khan's block rotates.
All in all, I'd say to hold off on preordering, unless you really need her now it probably isn't worthwhile.
March 5, 2015 7:55 a.m.
EndStepTop says... #20
Thoughtseize has a pedigree unlike Narset. We KNOW it will br played in Modern, Legacy and Vintage it's a bit of a poor comparison.
March 5, 2015 8:33 a.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #21
She'll drop. 
is a popular color pair which might help keep demand strong longer than usual after release. She is not a bomb in Standard and more of a role player like Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver and Kiora, the Crashing Wave. $10-$20 will be where she settles unless demand from Modern is heavy and then she'll be $20-$30.
March 5, 2015 9:03 a.m.
GeminiSpartanX says... #22
I think she's fits best in commander (where Hero's Downfalls aren't running around everywhere). In that format she's almost broken. However I don't see her finding a solid place in Modern. In a control build she's more like a 6-drop if you want to keep up protection (can't have Twin combo out the same turn you drop her can we?). The high loyalty is really the best thing going on for her. She WILL NOT stay $40+ however, so I would wait on preordering her at that price. Historically speaking in Modern/Legacy there are few PWs that are worth more than $15, and the ones that are worth more are all very efficient at what they do, mostly independant of how you build your deck. LotV is good no matter what your deck's overall plan is when running black, JtMS is a self-contained win condition + board control (no need to go into depth there), Karn fits into any (commander) deck and also heavily impacts the board the turn he comes down, and is often a 4-of in the modern decks that use him. Ugin is similar enough to Karn that I think it's a safe bet that he'll also not decrease in value drastically. To be completely effective (not whiff on the +1 all the time and have plenty of options for her -2), Narset must have a deck built around her (although the +1 is generic enough to be ok anywhere), and being multicolored will limit the amount of decks she can be used in, which are both strikes against her long-term value. In the right deck she can be a house, but will those 'right decks' be more or less playable due to her inclusion? I think she will see some play in modern as people test her out, but ultimately she will end up as a good PW for commander, likely stabilizing after rotation around $15.
March 5, 2015 9:58 a.m.
actiontech says... #23
Maybe not seen by many but SCG Premium has a daily article by Ben Bleiweiss estimating values of new cards. I'll paste the pertinent portion here. I hope she does drop a little, because I'll be collecting as many of these as I can get my hands on:
"Narset is one of the best planeswalkers ever printed. No hyperbole here - it's in the sweet spot at four mana, it's almost impossible to remove from the board the first turn it comes down (seven loyalty with the +1 ability), and most of all, it's going to be played in Legacy and Modern. There have been few planeswalkers that made the leap into all three formats. Here's the list, in the order of the amount of play they see in Legacy:
Narset combos amazingly well with Sensei's Divining Top, because the worst case scenario is that you put SDT on top of your deck, and then use Narset to draw it. Narset also works amazingly with Brainstorm, both for the first and second ability.
Way back when, I assigned three price tiers for planeswalkers, and the price tiers were directly tied to the number of formats in which the card was playable. Planeswalkers that were Standard/Modern/Legacy playable were the most valuable initially, and would hold the most value long-term. I know many people are reticent to pick up planeswalkers that debut at $30, but I truly believe that Narset will only go up in price from here."
March 5, 2015 10:34 a.m.
Completely agree with the above.
Those arguing that she needs a deck built around her - yeah sure, so does Karn and look at his price.
She's a minimum $30 walker through and through.
March 5, 2015 10:37 a.m.
Didgeridooda says... #25
She will be the most expensive walker. I think she will have a bunch of people playing some sort of super friends deck in standard. Maybe Murica with Sarkhan, and Elspeth, and control.
March 5, 2015 11:28 a.m.
Didgeridooda says... #26
Most expensive walker in standard *
I think she will grow maybe match lili in price.
March 5, 2015 11:29 a.m.
CanadianShinobi says... #27
Well, I for one hope she drops a little, if only so I can scoop her up while the price is low.
March 5, 2015 11:43 a.m.
Another factor I haven't seen mentioned yet is that cards from currently printed standard sets have a built-in economic self-regulator.
MSRP on boxes is $99, and will stay at $99 unless something crazy happens (like when Khans was being sold at $109 due to fetchlands). When a certain card, or a set of cards, begins to creep up in price, it causes the expected value of a box to increase, which leads to folks opening more boxes. This, in turn, increases supply which suppresses the price. For a card to maintain its value in standard, its rate of increase in demand has to equal the increased rate at which boxes are being opened. Usually, things stabilize at some point when all the cards in a set are known quantities and a box's EV is around $99.
Of course, anything is possible, but it seems very difficult for a card to maintain a price anywhere near $40 on spec and standard playability alone, because its own popularity will drive its price down when the EV of a box goes above $100. I'm not saying it's not possible, just that a card has to be VERY strong (a staple in several decks) to do that. Of course, when modern, legacy, etc. get thrown in, all bets are off.
March 5, 2015 5:13 p.m.
You assume that ships sell for MSRP. This is not always so.
March 5, 2015 5:14 p.m.
SimicPower says... #30
I agree with JDX. While in print, I don't think it will really be able to climb over $30, as people will just open more DTK. It also depends on how many good nonmythic rares are printed in DTK, as those will definitely drive the price down of all other cards in the set. Khans of Tarkir has really cheap cards because it was opened a lot due to fetchlands.
Hjaltrohir says... #2
I definitely believe that she will fall. I don't believe she is $40 worthy nor do I think she will stay up there. I was wrong about Ugin and the $30 mark so I could be wrong but I would wait for a couple of months after she's out to pick her up to get over the release hype.
March 5, 2015 2:01 a.m.