Need "Modern" help
Economics forum
Posted on March 16, 2014, 1:59 a.m. by fzebib
Guys, I own some of the "staple" cards in Modern. Mostly, the U/R/W deck.
Now, I do enjoy Jund -a lot- ( I borrow my friends deck to play). I need collective thoughts/opinions, and I thank you preemptively.
Should I buy into the Jund deck? Yes, I do want to play it. I'm not filthy rich by any means and it would put a dent into my pocket, yes. However, do you think WoTC will "fix" modern by bringing out reprints? Or do I get into this now before the train is too far ahead when I really won't be able to purchase. Dark Conidants/Lillies/Lands I don't feel "too" bad, but it's still very expensive. The Goyfs REALLY hurt - but, whats your opinion? Do you think they will "fix" it by bringing in reprints, or.. nope... Thanks!
well, goyf just got reprinted, so that's unlikely, same with bob. Liliana may get a reprint but not anytime soon. lands are still in speculation, but a lot of people are hoping and assuming they will be reprinted in the first block of huey, dewey, and louie. but they could also not come out till later.
March 16, 2014 2:14 a.m.
At some point in time, with enough hate being thrown at WotC, they'll eventually be forced to reprint fetch lands. That's without question. It's even to their advantage to do so. It's just a matter of when they're willing to pull the trigger. A set that reprints fetch lands most likely going to be a set filled with several other good lands much like Zendikar. I personally can't wait for that day.
While they did reprint Bob and Goyf, I wouldn't say that it was the kind of reprint we needed. It was a limited print run, and Modern Masters is now $15 a pack. What we really need is to have them be printed in a fresh standard set, which is currently about a 0.0001% chance for Journey Into Nyx. Tarmygoyf comes from Future Sight, so until we get a block like the time spiral block again, I can't imagine we'll be seeing him again.
Bob was from the original Ravnica. I feel like his chance to be reprinted was wasted. Since he wasn't reprinted in Return to Ravnica, I can't imagine he'll be reprinted again soon; however, his design is so basic and elegant that I could imagine him in a core set. It wouldn't be M15 though, because he was just printed in Modern Masters... It'll be a while. M17 maybe.
Liliana of the Veil is unlikely to get reprinted because it is a non-core-set planeswalker. Lorwyn planeswalkers being reprinted into M10 was the only instance of that happening. I think that'll be the only time that ever happens. I honestly believe that the only chance Liliana of the Veil will ever get reprinted will be in the case of a duel deck. Heros VS Monsters featured Sun Titan, which wasn't even close to being in Standard, so I feel like it's a possibility, slim as it may be.
I personally love America Control. If you've been playing America in Standard for the last format (ISD-RTR), then you're pretty well set towards your deck. I mean, you're still playing snapcasters, restoration angels, a couple Sphinx's revelations, think twice... Just gotta pick up a few things like lightning bolt, spell snare, lightning helix, mana leak, shadow of doubt, path to exile, restoration angel... Even the win-cons Ajani Veagent and Gideon Jura are pretty inexpensive.
Then you have the FML cards that you need to buy for competitive play.. like snapcasters, cryptic commands, vendillion cliques, etc. Celestial colonades are almost $20 each, so I guess that's a bit of a money card too. If you're playing very competitively, then you really do need your fetch lands. If you're playing at modern FNM, you don't really need them. Just run the shocks/checks. It's not as perfectly consistent, but good enough.
March 16, 2014 2:59 a.m.
Damn, it's so hard to make the decision whether or not to pick up the cards for Jund. I appreciate all the input you guys have given. I'll have to keep doing as much "research" as possible while thinking about if I want to drop the money on them, or not. Lilliana, I think I'll pick up 4 because I don' think I can see her below 50 dollars anymore. These fetches, though, they are so expensive.. and goyf.. I just feel torn between spending the money or not because I don't want to be the person to spend all the money ( mainly because at any second, they could drop) and then lose all the value that I just purchased into. I hope I don't sound whiney, it's just a damn tough call, especially since I -really- enjoy the game and have begun trying to become a lot more serious about it. Such a pretty harsh predicament.
March 16, 2014 4:30 a.m.
Liliana of the Veil is going nowhere but up. Don't be surprised if she hits Jace, the Mind Sculptor prices, ESPECIALLY since she's played in more formats and almost always as a four-of.
You're probably safe picking up Verdant Catacombs . $60 isn't too bad for such a playable fetch land. After Modern season is over or even if it gets reprinted, I doubt it will drop in price. It's more playable than Mutavault , for example. The same is true with Arid Mesa and Marsh Flats . I wouldn't buy Misty Rainforest at $100, though. That's up there with Polluted Delta and Flooded Strand , which are arguably in stronger colors. Hell, it's even up there with Tropical Island . At $100 each, you'd be better off getting into Legacy.
Tarmogoyf and Dark Confidant are more cross-format staples who it's hard to see their price going down anytime soon. Tarmogoyf is easily a $300 card with enough time. People are also unwilling to just sell them. They're just too good in too many formats.
I'd have to say, be careful about buying the entire deck all in one go. I'd be especially cautious of playing Jund until the meta gets figured out. I think building a B/G control or midrange without a third color is probably a better choice until Jund figures out what it's going to do without Deathrite Shaman and how its matches have changed in response to the banning.
March 16, 2014 6:25 a.m.
Most Jund staples are a pretty safe bet. I recently (last week) sold off my UWR deck to buy a playset of goyfs for my Tarmo-Twin deck and I don't regret it. Goyf will stay expensive for a long time.
The lands are the only sketchy purchase, but at least you are buying Verdant Catacombs and Marsh Flats which are the cheaper fetches.
In the end, you have to willing to take a risk in exchange for the ability to play your deck. Will you get value out of owning the cards that outways possible monetary loss?
March 16, 2014 10:48 a.m.
fluffybunnypants says... #8
Goyf and Lillies are basically a buy now or they'll be more expensive when you want them later proposition.
Bob is probably in the exact same boat.
March 16, 2014 12:10 p.m.
That's scary. So you think the bottom end of goyfs is 170 atm, man? I picked up a playset of Verdant Catacombs at 43 a pop, I thought that was a good/safe purchase. I have some friends who wholeheartedly believe that WoTC will do something about the ridiculous prices of the staple cards to discourage such prices. Never thought I'd ACTUALLY be thinking of picking those tarmagoys up. The only reason I feel "worried" is because if they DO start to jump, then it's going to become almost impossible to grab them. Lillianas at 55/per I don't think is a bad move because I can see her jumping up to a real good price, I agree. Goyfs/fetches, however, really worry me.
March 16, 2014 5:21 p.m.
Fetches will probably be reprinted, But Tarmogoyf just saw a reprint.
Reasons behind Goyf rising:
He won't be printed in standard anytime soon due to fetches most likely coming back and with fetches he is too powerful. (plus he doesn't fit in the next block)
He is in insane demand, there is no reason for a card in such high demand to fall, especially since there aren't many copies running around.
He could see another MM edition (highly doubt it), but that wuld only spark more interest and push prices up.
WOTC is interested in lowering prices, but Goyf is most certainly not at the top of the list. They will work to get land prices down first and then look at other cards. But Goyf was reprinted last year...
March 16, 2014 5:51 p.m.
Hahah Wnorris, you are about to make me spend money to buy 4 tarmagoyfs, dude. :(
March 16, 2014 9:27 p.m.
170x4 is so painful, though. Especially with the fact that it may drop in price, just insane. Sometimes magic finance makes no sense and the only person who really knows what will happen is WoTC. Wild.
March 16, 2014 9:53 p.m.
GoldGhost012 says... #13
Sure, 4x $170 is painful now, but you'll feel worse when you get them at 4x $200 (I know I will...)
March 16, 2014 9:56 p.m.
It's really crazy how confidant everyone is they will continue to rise. What do you think their cap will be @? Insanity! Again, forgive my ignorance, guys. Just bewildering, is all. :)
March 16, 2014 9:59 p.m.
I don't mean to force you to spend the money haha. if the goyfs are worth it to you then the money is justified. I seriously doubt he will drop anytime soon. If for some crazy reason he was reprinted, he would only rise further down the road. Tarmogoyf is one of the best cards in the format.
March 16, 2014 10:02 p.m.
GoldGhost012 says... #16
Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if Goyf, Bob, or Lili never stopped rising. I mean, I'm sure they'd plateau at some point, but I bet they will continually trickle upwards, especially since they're not due to be reprinted anytime soon.
March 16, 2014 10:09 p.m.
GoldGhost012, thats why I made myself buy my goyfs last week.
March 16, 2014 10:28 p.m.
GoldGhost012 says... #18
Smart move. If I had money I would too.
Of course, the smarter move would have been buying them when Modern Masters was introduced when they were $120 each...
March 16, 2014 10:31 p.m.
I hate both of you guys. Im mousing over that buy it now button right meow :( LOL
March 16, 2014 11:31 p.m.
If it's that painful then don't do it! We all have limits we set on our hobbies.
If you feel you will get 780$ of satisfaction out of the goyfs and use them then go for it!
Also I recommend double sleeving lol
March 16, 2014 11:42 p.m.
Out of curiosity are you looking at the modern masters or future sight version?
March 16, 2014 11:44 p.m.
@fzebib: Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Tarmogoyf hits $300. He's played as a four-of in any deck that uses him and is played in several tier one decks across three formats.
Let's not forget that Tarmogoyf isn't just in demand because of Modern. He's also in demand for Legacy and a few Vintage decks.
fzebib says... #2
forgive me for any form of ignorance ahead of time, lol
March 16, 2014 1:59 a.m.