Nissa has jumped up to $40!
Economics forum
Posted on July 16, 2014, 11 a.m. by Rasta_Viking29
Does anyone know why Nissa, Worldwaker went from $14 to $40 in one day? Did somebody break her? Is it just hype?
Servo_Token says... #3
There's roughly 400 copies of her in circulation right now in any given country. Just wait until release day and people start pulling her in packs, she'll plummet.
July 16, 2014 11:13 a.m.
KnightsBattlecry001 says... #4
It's all just hype. Give it about a week or so and her price will fall.
July 16, 2014 11:19 a.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #5
That's a given. I'm interested in the cause of the $25 jump in price, not where people think the price is going.
July 16, 2014 11:26 a.m.
But why did she jump 25$ for 3 days ago and not for 6 days ago? What made her jump so much the last 3 days? :D
July 16, 2014 11:42 a.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #9
Is there any reason that Nissa, Worldwaker is perceived to be better today than it was 2 days ago? If this was a matter of simple S&D I wouldn't have made a thread. The market had already been set for Nissa, $12-20. The actual supply of Nissa in the hands of players is fairly irrelevant because almost all purchases are pre-sale at this time. The other planeswalkers have had their values established as well ranging from $5-$25. Garruk, Apex Predator has settled at $20-$25 and has a similar supply but did not jump in price.
I figured either the demand for Nissa was initially underestimated and this is a cash grab or a reputable player/brewer posted an article or list. If the later was true I was hoping for a link.
July 16, 2014 11:48 a.m.
Servo_Token says... #10
More and more shops are uploading their preorders and standard orders for their TCGPlayer (etc) stores. That's what causes these huge daily jumps right before release.
July 16, 2014 12:33 p.m.
Unforgivn_II says... #11
SCG has her listed at 40. All the sheeple look to them for pricing, since the demand is pretty unknown at the moment. Once people realize that 40 is too much, they'll drop it down and she'll be worth the price tag, as opposed to this insane amount.
July 16, 2014 1:07 p.m.
Schuesseled says... #12
Wherever she was being sold for under 15 dollars simply hadn't done their homework, she's been over 30 since the first preorders were allowed.
July 16, 2014 1:16 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #13
She was $30 for like a day and then dropped to around $15-$18 all over the internet and stayed there up until yesterday.
ThatBlueMage that's incorrect. The same shops who have had her for $15 are now at $35...
Unforgivn_II SCG had her at $20 before this. The demand is more than established after 2 weeks.
July 16, 2014 1:30 p.m.
Servo_Token says... #14
I don't see any dips in that graph. It just shows the rise in price that happens to every planeswalker...
You sure you're looking at the same prices over the course of time? Like, looking at the low price last week and the med today?
July 16, 2014 1:35 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #15
ThatBlueMage what's the point in debating facts? It debuted at $30, dropped to $15-$20, and then jumped to $40. Fact. Period. The graph doesn't collect information from the very first sales, it takes a couple days. I follow the price of Standard cards daily. Looking at any other planeswalker released they start high and then slowly drop so I'm not sure why you say it happens to every planeswalker... That's just ill-informed.
July 16, 2014 1:45 p.m.
Unforgivn_II says... #16
Dang so hostile. SCG now has her at 40. Like I said, the "sheeple" follow SCG, since we have no ProTours or GPs to use as reference to how good she is. Since she's an unknown outside of Limited; people don't know what to price her at. They follow SCG because SCG typically knows what they're doing (even if they are overpriced).
We're attempting to give you answers. Why ask a question when you don't like the answers you get?
July 16, 2014 2:23 p.m.
trentfaris242 says... #18
She's in demand because she's hyped and under supplied. Her price tag has literally nothing to do with her performance or how good she'll be. Expect her to drop hard.
July 16, 2014 2:28 p.m.
Epochalyptik says... #19
"The actual supply of Nissa in the hands of players is fairly irrelevant because almost all purchases are pre-sale at this time."
That's just wrong. The only physical copies available right now are in the hands of people who opened them or who have since traded for them. Anyone who wants a card now has to find one of those copies. The jump happening after a brief delay just represents market adjustment time.
Furthermore, Nissa jumped because she's potentially viable. Garruk is irrelevant in competitive anything.
July 16, 2014 2:28 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #20
I'm getting a llittle frustrated because people are talking like this another on of those noob econ threads like "Is Nissa worth $40? Should I wait?" No one has actually answered the question, just made ill-informed assumptions... I'm addressing them so others that are curious about the topic don't get the wrong idea.
I'm trying to figure out if anything substantial is behind this unusual increase in price.
July 16, 2014 2:53 p.m.
Epochalyptik says... #21
Read my last comment. There's nothing hidden going on here. It's normal S&D with some lag in market uptake.
July 16, 2014 3:01 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #22
Epochalyptik I disagree, I would not categorize this as normal.
After searching around the internet I've seen a couple discussions about the jump but no answers, just people giving a heads ups. I've noticed an unusually high amount of players at my LGS wanting to play Nissa. Maybe that is widespread and shops have picked up on it.
I'm aware I won't find the answer at this time and just keep an eye on it.
July 16, 2014 3:29 p.m.
Schuesseled says... #23
Well I didn't see any price drops...
Assuming that is correct and not some sort of delusion :P I think the real question is not why did it spike, but why did it fall. It sold out pretty darn quick at 16.99 gbp (30 dollars) at the MTG Shop I frequent.
July 16, 2014 3:29 p.m.
Izanagi_Deus says... #24
To some extent, I think that it's likely that some people opened a Nissa at their prerelease, played the card and loved it, and then rushed to preorder more. Rapid acceleration of orders leads to jumps in prices. Just my theory.
July 16, 2014 3:50 p.m.
Honestly I want to know too, because I have 2 copies and it would make sense to sell them now that they're so expensive, but I also want to use her in a deck, so I want 4... If it's really just hype, then I should sell, right? Because if it's really only hype, she'll drop again after I sell. But again, I want to play with her so which would be smarter, selling now and buying again later or just holding on and trying to get 2 more after she settles?
July 16, 2014 3:50 p.m.
trentfaris242 says... #27
If you have her, sell now and rebuy. She's only this high because of hype. She's good, but there's no Standard card worth $40. Not even close.
July 16, 2014 4:06 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #28
trentfaris242 how is Nissa any more hyped than she was 2 days ago?
This is significant. She is being priced as a standard staple right now and it will play out in two ways. Either she is the real deal and will maybe even increase in price before slowly dropping down to Elspeth, Sun's Champion price level or she is just being hyped like Xenagos, The Reveler and will then settle around $10 as just a really good card fairly quickly.
July 16, 2014 4:23 p.m.
Epochalyptik says... #29
People want to experiment with it. Simple as that. You're missing that there have been no major non-limited events with Nissa. She only becomes legal in constructed this Friday. There's no sudden breakthrough. People are hyped, and stores want to capitalize on it.
July 16, 2014 4:26 p.m.
trentfaris242 says... #30
Even if she is the real deal and an auto include, she isn't a $40 card. Too many people play Magic and open packs for Standard cards to hit $40 now, even if they're mythics. It's purely economical. There will be way too many in circulation for her to sustain $40 for more than a week. That's my hypothesis.
The most recent card that comes to mind is Stormbreath Dragon . It was the bee's knees when it came out and only hit around $35. It fell to less than $20 in a single set.
I'm not saying she's bad, she's amazing. But she can't sustain $40. This is purely hype. Sell now.
July 16, 2014 4:32 p.m.
trentfaris242 says... #31
To be fair, Mutavault hit $40. Lemme know when Nissa is an auto-include, 4-of in every standard competitive deck and then I'll agree that there's a competitive reason for the price spike.
July 16, 2014 4:39 p.m.
Cards are always more expensive just after prerelease, and just before full release.
July 16, 2014 4:46 p.m.
Well to be fair, I could only sell for about $30, since that's TCGPlayer low. And since she'll probably be close to $20 when she settles, and I pulled one of them at the prerelease, I'll probably keep her just because I want as much play out of her as I can get lol
July 16, 2014 4:48 p.m.
Servo_Token says... #34
"how is Nissa any more hyped than she was 2 days ago?"
Shit, this thing's $40! I better pick mine up right now before she goes higher!
-Every MTG noob that thinks he knows finance.
Also, i'm going to have to agree with everyone who's saying that you're being a bit irrational about this. People love new planeswalkers. People Love Zendikar based anything. People love untapping lands. All of this together makes for a $40 card when there's so few copies of them available. What caused your price jump was lag in S&D, shops catching up to the SCG price, etc, as Epoch explained. Just don't worry about it, you're taking this completely expected price jump way too seriously.
July 16, 2014 4:56 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #35
OMG FML!!! I could careless what the value of the card is... THAT IS NOT THE POINT OF THE THREAD. I HAVE NO INTENTIONS OF BUYING NISSA... THIS IS NOT A THREAD ABOUT WHETHER SHE IS A GOOD BUY OR IF YOU SHOULD SELL. Out of all those I've addressed only Epochalyptik seems to comprehend what I'm asking.
My intrigue was sparked by an unusual jump in price for a card. I wanted to know why it came about as it bucks the normal trend for pre-release. This is a thread to investigate the catalyst for such a rapid increase. Without a noticeable difference in hype/demand there is not a clear reason for the change.
July 16, 2014 5:29 p.m.
PreZchoICE1 says... #36
Well she has 2 plusses and a minus and her minus is her ultimate. She fits in any deck that can host green- her cost isnt daunting at all for anything with even minor ramp. Shes possibly the strongest green walker printed yet, and I would suspect she'll see some 3-4 of play somewhere in standard. Her second +1 is amazing and probably the main reason she'll see play. She's undoubtedly the strongest mono walker out of m15.
What you're seeing now is market correction, and I suspect she has a good chance to stick around 35, and a small chance she will hold or increase. If u can invest for 25 or less I highly doubt you'll lose out.
July 16, 2014 5:34 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #37
I figured out a way to explain this with an example:
Demand + Supply = Price of card (not mathematically correct)
On Sunday: 2 + 3 = 5
On Tuesday: 2 + 3 = 10
How can the answer change when the variables remain consistent? This is my question. Logically it can't and so you have to assume one of the variables changed. The supply hasn't changed, if you want to count pre-release then that would work to decrease the price by increasing supply. You have to assume there is an increase in demand but I haven't noticed one. From this point you attempt to identify a reasons for the demand to increase and try to tie it all back together. Like has been said there hasn't been any tournaments to influence the price. No influential article or decklist. Where's the catalyst?
Sorry if I've offended anyone with my edginess. Gets a little irritating asking what 2+2 equals and getting Blue, Circle and Bird as answers.
July 16, 2014 6:06 p.m.
PreZchoICE1 says... #38
I would guess the reason for the big jump is a whole bunch of pre-orders (or one massive one) that flooded in when she was sitting between 15-20. She was basically bought out across the board late Sunday/early Monday
July 16, 2014 6:09 p.m.
PreZchoICE1 says... #39
Late sunday I checked her price because I pulled one in last pre release. There were 16 of them at 16.99. Next day morning there were zero left when I checked again, wanting to order one. Yesterday the price went to 24.99 on scg, after that buy up at which pt Id guess they checked mtgstocks and saw that nearly everywhere is sold out of presales
July 16, 2014 6:16 p.m.
PreZchoICE1 says... #40
Rasta I think what you're leaving out of the equation is accounting for ppl having some common sense.
July 16, 2014 6:18 p.m.
Servo_Token says... #41
I'm trying to figure out why you think that 2+3=10 is correct here. If 2 equals demand, and 3 equals supply, then obviously 2 is no longer 2, but 7. Still not sure why you haven't gotten this.
July 16, 2014 6:22 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #42
PreZchoICE1 what does common sense have to do with this?
I have 2 possible reasons but nothing to prove them. I've come to accept that the answer is not available to me right now. I'll keep my eye on the situation.
July 16, 2014 6:23 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #43
ThatBlueMage let's progress, shall we? I'll hold your hand.
How did 2 become 7?
You don't know? Shucks me too.
You should understand now. I hope...
July 16, 2014 6:28 p.m.
Servo_Token says... #44
This has been explained multiple times now, the things that factor into demand: What it does, who it features, how many reprints it has, Card art / flavor.
Now, let's fill in these blanks:
What it does: Untaps lands, wins games, fetches lands. All of which competitive and non-competitive players alike want to do.
Who it features: Nissa, a walker that we've only seen once, and one that is full of delicious lore flavor.
How many reprints: Zero, just came out, people want to explore with it.
Card art / Flavor: It's called fucking worldwaker. People love zendikar. The art is pretty good, compared to other high dollar cards.
Now that I've recapped the last three pages of this thread, I'll ask that you stop asking the same question over and over, because you're only going to get these answers. You dense mother fucker. Don't act like everyone else that's trying to help you is a moron because you fail to grasp the concept of financial demand.
July 16, 2014 6:33 p.m.
trentfaris242 says... #45
Just because you don't understand microeconomics doesn't make this situation equivalent to an incorrect math expression.
July 16, 2014 6:34 p.m.
PreZchoICE1 says... #46
She basically can protect herself granted that you can play a 4 drop or less crit on her heels. Isnt that what the best walkers do? No real drawback and protect themselves from being attacked?
July 16, 2014 6:42 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #47
ThatBlueMage it's best to be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt. This thread has nothing to do with why Nissa is worth $40 or $2... You haven't answered anything. Once again we are determining a catalyst for the sudden increase after a stable week or so...
trentfaris242 my over simplified equation is perfectly acceptable for what it trying to explain. The combination of supply and demand are two variables responsible for the price of a card. Feel free to pick it apart if you like, I know you're a math guy.
July 16, 2014 6:46 p.m.
Epochalyptik says... #48
The problem with your equation analogy is that you automatically rule out the possibility that demand has changed or that market uptake lagged for a short period. Those are the two most realistic answers here.
July 16, 2014 6:51 p.m.
I think it's safe to assume that demand has spiked. There hasn't really been any change in supply over the last week. I believe what Rasta is asking is WHY the demand spiked. Not "why there is demand currently" or "why Nissa is good" or "why her price went up" (demand increase). Does anyone have a solid hypothesis for why the demand increased so drastically in just a couple of days?
July 16, 2014 6:58 p.m.
Basically, a few days ago, people were willing to spend $16 on Nissa. Now they are willing to spend $40. Why the jump from $16 to $40?
Epochalyptik says... #2
Probably just hype. New walkers are typically around $40 during release week.
Results will determine whether the new Nissa stays that high.
July 16, 2014 11:04 a.m.