Now or wait?
Economics forum
Posted on July 31, 2015, 2:35 a.m. by showda
So, I need a playset of said card for a mono-black Aggro deck that I'm working on. Right now I'm running a mixed list of Despise and Duress that works fairly well in my casual meta, but I do intend on getting a playset of Thoughtseize. Is there any chance of Thoughtseize dropping in price within the next month or two, which is when I'm thinking of starting to go to FNM's. My combo of the two 'cheap' options works fine for now, but come fnm I'm gonna wanna work it up.
TheAnnihilator says... #4
Also, I don't expect Thoughtseize to lose any value, really. It is a major player in all eternal formats, and thus I just don't see it being much less than it is now. Waiting until rotation would be penny pushing, and it may not even drop. I'd just get em now, no real reason to wait.
July 31, 2015 2:46 a.m.
It would be for Modern, and yeah I know it wouldn't lose value. It's a great card, I just wanted to see if it was worth it to wait that extra month or two, since as I said in the original post, right now my Despise/Duress works fine for my casual meta I play in right now. Still have a crap ton of money I need to pump into my deck so anyplace I can save, I will.
July 31, 2015 2:49 a.m.
Thoughtseize should go down to maybe $15-16 when it rotates out of standard in October. It's decline in value should have already started. If I were you I would just wait til a week or two after Battle for Zendikar comes out to buy them if you care about saving maybe $20. If you don't care that much buy them a week before you want to start playing FNM.
July 31, 2015 3:11 a.m.
wish12oz what makes you think it will go down that much? Thoughtseize has always been a pricey card and It rotating out of standard wont change the fact that its played in tons of decks in multiple formats.
July 31, 2015 4:45 a.m.
I agree with seuvius. I don't see it going less than $20. cards like Liliana of the Veil only dropped maybe $5 dollars post rotation, and that was WAY before she super relevant in legacy, and just barely after modern had gotten started. Thoughtseize is ~$24 right now, and modern is more popular than ever(especially G/B/x deccks). if you keep your eyes peeled hard enough, you should be able to pick a NM playset up for ~$18 each if you are lucky, just don't expect them from one seller.
July 31, 2015 6:22 a.m.
I barely see it dropping at all. Every Thoughtseize owned and played by some standard noob will be scooped up by eternal format players instantly.
July 31, 2015 8:10 a.m.
Typically cards are most expensive when they come out (even if theyre reprints), unless it's a sleeper and is required for some random deck that pops up later. Then the price steadily declines until the set it's from stops being printed, then it'll go up a bit if it's still used in standard/other. Then when it drops out of standard, depending on the amount of play it see's in eternal formats it's price will decline accordingly. Thoughtseize is like $23~, and see's play in both modern (and it's modern season, so these cards are at their most expensive right now) and legacy (which doesn't really have a season). The current spike up from $19~ to $23~ is due to modern season and people needing it for jund/abzan/etc. Since Thoughtseize see's play in all formats except maybe EDH, it won't go down very much even though the market will be flooded with them because people know it will retain it's value and start to go back up later. The fact that it went up $4~ should be a good indication of how much it will go down once modern season is over, then it rotates out of standard. So if we double how much it went up, then subtract that it should give us an idea of where it will settle for it's low price (bc it should go down that much when modern season ends, and then again when it rotates).
23-(4*2)=15.
That's how I came to the $15~ figure. And when it hits there I suggest people pick a few extras up to keep around as trade bait for 2-3 years down the road when there wont be tons of them around and it's price has gone up and reestablished. You won't make a killing doing this, but it's a good way to gain value and build a better collection.
Keep in mind, I could be wrong, the price it drops to after modern season could be where it stays, but past trends tend to indicate future performance and all that.
July 31, 2015 9:27 a.m.
I agree with your analysis, but if it hits $15 I will eat my hat. There's no way it hits $15 ever after rotation. Even when it was freshly reprinted, it was never even close to hitting that number. Standard rotation will not affect it as much.
July 31, 2015 9:33 a.m.
Ya, wasn't it like $60~ when it first got reprinted? lol
July 31, 2015 9:44 a.m.
It was well over $60 BEFORE it got reprinted. The Theros version started around $25, hit about $18 at its low point, and will probably never go back below $20, at least in my opinion.
July 31, 2015 10:18 a.m.
Now is your best chance to buy them as copies become more available due to people THINKING it will lose value. It wont. Period. $20 is the lowest this card could POTENTIALLY fall, but I don't see it happening. If you need them, get them.
July 31, 2015 10:30 a.m.
MTGGoldfish's price history on the theros thoughtseize
It's been on a steady rise nearing it's exit from standard. Chances are "most" people won't unload this staple back into the market, but use it as trade fodder for the things they need.
July 31, 2015 11:41 a.m.
WovenNebula says... #18
As with every rotation cards drop in price. Thoughtseize is a staple as well as Snapcaster Mage, shock lands, Abrupt Decay etc.. All dropped when rotation hit. If 8-15 dollars or less is significant to you for a playset,then wait for rotation. For example: about 3 weeks after Snapcaster Mage rotated I could buy them for 13 dollars on Amazon, although it doesn't mean thoughtseize will hit that, just that it will drop some.Keep in mind this is a small window of opportunity.
July 31, 2015 12:09 p.m.
TheAnnihilator says... #19
WovenNebula You see, Snapcaster times were very different than today. Noone really payed much attention to the modern format, or the major economics of it.
Now, everyone's a speculator and buyouts make people paranoid of secondary market prices. Nobody would be willing to let go of a card like Snapcaster if it were rotating out right now, so what makes you feel differently about Thoughtseize?
July 31, 2015 12:21 p.m.
The prices for standard chase rares were also around $10 cheaper than what they are now
July 31, 2015 12:33 p.m.
CrovaxTheCursed says... #21
Buy your Thoughtseizes and do it soon. The Standard rotation might drop it a couple bucks, but in a few years I doubt it will be less than $30, after staying at around $20-25 for a while. It will continue to climb and climb the further along we go since they will not be printed anymore (from Theros anyway). When Abrupt Decay rotated, it went to around $8-10 for a little bit and that's when I bought 13 of them. The market gets flooded for a little bit after a card rotates out of Standard, but for a card like Thoughtseize they won't be on the market for very long. People know it's a staple across many formats, and as such they will be bought up quickly. My advice would be to grab them now while people are dumping them in anticipation of the rotation, and while they are still in heavy circulation. Pretty soon, you'll be kicking yourself for not getting your playset. I personally got my set when they dipped to $18 because I knew they wouldn't go lower for a long time. Even if they drop to $15-16 here pretty soon, that just means I buy more and wait for them to double. Same goes for KTK fetches when their time comes. I doubt you'll be able to get a Mire for $8 after KTK block rotates.
July 31, 2015 1:35 p.m.
WovenNebula says... #22
@TheAnnihilator snappy was just an example. What will happen though is 8-15 off a playset. That's 2-4 dollars off a single Thoughtseize more likely it'll be 2-3 lower than what it is now. Yes Modern is more popular, but speculators won't be buying out Thoughtseize at rotation there is just too many out there at the moment. The best speculation cards are lower in numbers. There is still way too many standard players out there that'll dump them, of course Thoughtseize will rise over time, but every year since I was playing in revised when standard rotated out all staples drop at least a little bit whether they are played in other formats or not. If the perfect storm happens and history changes then I'd be welcome to I told ya so, lol.
July 31, 2015 1:44 p.m.
TheAnnihilator says... #23
@WovenNebula I wasn't trying to make a point about Snapcaster Mage, but rather the recent change in mindset. People are generally more aware of how the secondary market works than in the past, and Standard players are far less willing to "offload" cards that have rotated out due to the rise in eternal-format speculation -- especially with proven staples like Thoughtseize.
So, though it is true that speculators may not be scooping up 'Seizes come rotation (though I know I'll be looking for as many copies as I can trade for), I also feel that very few people will be actively trading them away "just to dump them". The price creep of eternal staples is now common knowledge when it used to be somewhat exclusive.
This is why I doubt that TS will be dropping much, if at all.
July 31, 2015 2:21 p.m.
WovenNebula says... #24
Basically get them anytime soon and at rotation if you wanna save 8 dollars or so a playset get them then but then you'll have a 2-3 week window. After that it'll balance out and then rise. It's the safest investment in standard right now.
July 31, 2015 3:16 p.m.
I still need 18 more to complete my 10 play sets..open to trading people!
July 31, 2015 11:41 p.m.
I hope someone bumps this thread 2~ weeks after BFZ comes out so we can be reminded of it and see who was right!
August 1, 2015 9:56 a.m.
heylookiwasrightbump.
There's a lightly played copy of Thoughtseize on TCG right now for $16. Near mint copies can be had for $17 currently. On eBay theres a listing for 4 NM copies for $65, which is $16.25 each. Sooooo close to vishnarg eating his hat!
October 13, 2015 5:30 p.m.
WovenNebula says... #28
They may get closer to 15 by the end of this month, in my experience the lowest point for cards rotated is 3-4 weeks after rotation. Time will tell for those who want to save a dollar or so.
SimicPower says... #2
If you are not playing standard, I would wait until it rotates. I don't expect a major price drop but it possibly can. After that there is no more reason to wait, as it should only go up until it gets another reprint.
If you are playing standard you might as well buy now, since it rotates soon. If you wait to long you won't have a very long time to play with the card.
July 31, 2015 2:41 a.m.