Pulled F True Name, Battlebond in general
Economics forum
Posted on Aug. 8, 2018, 9:57 p.m. by philktoken8998
So I pulled a True-Name Nemesis
tonight, and I'm not sure what to do. I don't think it's going to get printed anytime soon. What do people think?
Also, this is just my opinion, but if you have extra $ lying around, getting a box of Battlebond seems like a good idea in terms of EV maybe? Not only do you get the chance to pull legit lottery cards (a lot of foil rares or mythics go anywhere from 30 to 100$) but their is just a lot of value it seems.
Interested to hear what people think. Thanks for your opinions and advice!
Holy moly, 245.5 according to this site. This is about 3 boxes of battlebond, which would be really cool to draft.
August 9, 2018 4:18 a.m.
You could hold it. It's likely going to go up. Still, you're not getting anything out of it now and shipping it will allow you to get lots of useful stuff now.
August 9, 2018 10:11 p.m.
RazortoothMtg says... #5
When Battlebond released, MTGGoldfish made an Estimated Value article like usual, but keep in mind this was right after set release. The important thing to remember from this article is that the reprints hit a floor ~3-6 months after release and then rebound in price. Currently, its been about 2 months since release, meaning cards have the opportunity to drop further, but still rebound in price. The important bit for your pull is that True-Name Nemesis will only go up, as reprinting is VERY unlikely and it is near the low point for price. That said, if you wanna buy a couple boxes of Guilds of Ravnica when it comes out, selling it is still a fine idea as the price increase will probably be pretty slow since its an extremely expensive foil already.
Anyway, the part I'm more interested here is the current Estimated Value of a box, as I mostly forgot how valueable this set is and I bet you can pick up boxes for pretty cheap. According to MTGStocks, the EV of a pack is $4.28 on average and the EV of a box of Battlebond is $154.08 on Average, meaning if you can get a box at (or likely below) MSRP you'll probably get your money back unless you are extremely unlucky like me and pull 3 Grothama, All-Devouring and all your rares are Goblin Razerunners. This is just the average EV (when based on Market price it drops a little btw), but remember that most of these cards have nowhere to go but up, especially the mythics, and then you've got the crazy lottery cards like True-Name Nemesis. Not only is True-Name an absurd amount of money, but Based on this 7 foil mythics are worth $60 or more, and after that, even the cheapest one, Grothama, All-Devouring is a $15 foil. There are also a few in the $50 range, a few in the $40s, etc. 6 rares have foils worth over $45, and after that there are a few more surprisingly expensive foil rares such as Archon of Valor's Reach at $25. And dont forget that Partners come in pairs, and foil partners are in foil pairs! That means if you pull the $44 foil Rowan Kenrith you also got the $48 foil Will Kenrith. If you pull the $13 foil Pir, Imaginative Rascal, you also got the $10 foil Toothy, Imaginary Friend.
Overall, I think buying a box of Battlebond is probably worth it just for value, and even more if you can convince enough people to come draft it with you (with you of course taking all the cards if you bought the box yourself). And Battelbond boxes are still easily available for under $100 with little effort, and if you want to fight a bidding war on eBay, there are currently auctions for way under $100, but obviously those prices are going up before the auction ends.
August 10, 2018 12:46 a.m.
philktoken8998 says... #6
Thanks everyone. I probably will continue my more aggressive stance of buying boxes of BB if I have the $ or store credit.
One thing I am thinking about doing though is selling the True Name and then buying two Brightlings. I feel their cost of 20$ right now might be too low considering they are a 3 or 4 of in one of the most played decks in legacy and only printed in a rare set. Ie. True Name before the BB release was around 30$+ correct? would it be advisable to convert the card into two Brightling foils if I can get them for 100$ right now (ie. do people think they will go up in price)?
August 11, 2018 4:39 p.m.
RazortoothMtg says... #7
philktoken8998 (Note: i could be wrong bc I dont really play legacy) I know Brightling was being tested in Legacy Death&Taxes, but did anyone ever show any reason it's better than Mirran Crusader or whatever other card you cut for it? I've heard a lot of people saying it was pretty lackluster in the deck. Based on the Price Chart for Brightling, it has basically only gone down since it spiked
August 11, 2018 6 p.m.
I would not get brightling - a 1 of in a single legacy deck is never going up for that reason and brightling has no other reasons to see play.
August 13, 2018 2:36 a.m.
Also, if we ever get a single better slot, it crowds out Brightling fast and will cause the price of foils to drop hard.
August 13, 2018 11:52 a.m.
philktoken8998 says... #10
Yea my thinking was 1.) works very well with aether vial which is a staple
and 2.) It's rare that a card breaks into legacy and overtakes a pretty standard creature for the archetype
3.) Mirran Crusader's effectiveness is somewhat meta dependent in the sense that protection from black and green can change and that green isn't exactly known for spot removal.
4.) The price has stabilized around 20$ after initially spiking at 40$.
Once again I thank everyone's opinion. Lots to think about. I guess the good thing is true-name won't be re-printed with the chance of foil for a while assuming no weird FTV printings and such. I just think brightling seems like a very strong card in D+T
_Delta_ says... #2
Lucky! I was pretty salty when I about 2 weeks ago opened a foil mythic as well, but mine rather was Grothama, All-Devouring :(
August 9, 2018 12:48 a.m.