rant: economics of a new player
Economics forum
Posted on June 12, 2015, 1:30 a.m. by mckin
WIzards is doing plenty to help you get into modern. Just because you started in theros or khans doesnt mean they have never reprinted a modern staple before. MM and MM2 are not the only things that have been printed to help modern card availability. Shocklands were just reprinted and are a fraction of what they used to cost. Thoughtseize was just reprinted in a still standard legal set. Khans just printed the allied fetchlands for the first time in modern, you can buy packs and boxes for $90 and open fetches and foil fetches.
New cards are being played in modern, abrupt decay, lingering souls, tasigur, siege rhino, these are all cards that are newer, not 9 years old, theyre much more plentiful than you might think, and arnt mythics either. You can find these cards easily or open them in packs.
Non standard products exist, commander 2014 just reprinted wurmcoil engine, a 4 of in a popular modern deck, try trading with commander players or recognize more copies of that card exist, this is also true for things like deceiver exarch, which you could probably get for free from ravaged commander decks from non modern players and its a $3 card. Or modern event decks that locally were selling for like $50, having over $70 worth of cards with IoKs, Paths, and a ton more
A cards price went up in a deck you want to play because 5 of 8 top 8 decks in the GP were that deck? YOure not the only person who might want to play it now, not everything is one person buyout, if there are 2000 copies of a card, that means 500 people out of the estimated 20 million, just have to buy a playset for copies to no longer be available. And some people may buy a 2nd play set for future speculation, or maybe people 501 -1000 only need 1 or 2 copies to finish sets, boom now 3000 copies of a card are gone off the internet.
Magic cards were not all printed 30 years ago and then they just restarted once you got into the game, wizards has been constantly printing new cards and reprinting old cards.
As I end my rant there is also some relative safety in owning a deck, if it costs $500 (modern not standard) and they reprint half of that deck, it may cost $350, but give it time because those cards that didnt get reprinted may just go up, or probably will until the deck is worth about $500 again. Crytics and twins get reprinted? DEceivers, snaps, steam vents, go up.
Put some time into the true economics of magic, you dont need to make a million dollars but it will help you play for less or spend less and trade for more of the cards you need. Look into trading for cards to speculate on or just bite the bullet and buy some, shop around, dont just you one source for cards, and mingle in different play groups, check out EDH players binders, let standard only players know youre looking for the cards that are rotating out, or find a legacy player who wants to maybe just get value trades in
I apologize for sleep deprived rant. And im happy to trade away duals and forces for value if thats what youre after, or high end modern staples haha just lmk what you need
June 12, 2015 2:55 a.m.
What's the point of this thread? To pretend like absolutely everything's fine or...?
Because sure, I 100% agree that there are plenty of good things wizards are doing for the world of modern but it's having selective memory to think that's the end of the story. There are plenty of bad things too.
As a counterpoint; innistrad boxes have gone up massively in price. Lingering souls have stayed low but rares have risen. So we have very recent sets that are already seeing crazy price climbs. You mention abrupt decay; that too has gone from 5 to 15 dollars in a short period of time.
There is a lot to be excited about but the market moves so quickly that cards that are literally from 2 to 3 sets back (were talking 2 to 3 years old) have risen from $20 to nearly $100. These things go fast. Very fast. Therefore it would appear that single printings in standard don't appear to be enough. Ironically if you want to speculate on modern now you need to be keeping up with standard rotations almost as they happen because waiting isn't a good idea now. Avoiding the speculation of rotation was one of the reasons to play modern - now it's an integral part, and I think that's to do with how desperate we all are to speculate on that new staple.
I agree with you largely but I also think it's nearly useless to only look at one side of a story. In fact I posted almost this exact same comment a day or two ago. But I noted that at the same time as this were still waiting for other things to get reprints that badly need them. Take the good WITH the bad. It's naive to ignore it.
June 12, 2015 3:34 a.m.
I'm in this state most of the time now where I'm simultaneously annoyed and pleased with wizards. I don't think that's a bad place to be.
June 12, 2015 3:36 a.m.
NobodyPicksBulbasaur says... #7
2 points:
1: Magic is an expensive game. This sucks, but it's how life is. Griping about it won't help, even if ranting does let off a little steam now and again.
2: I hate it when people get butthurt because their $50 card got reprinted and they "lost" money. If you're trying to invest your money, trading cards aren't the way to go. Just be happy that cards keep getting made. Maybe you'll make a new friend after they pick up a deck that they couldn't afford before the reprint.
I've made some stupid trades and poor speculations in the past, but I don't fret over it because I don't see my binder as a pile of money to be lost. I see it as a pile of cards that I get to play a game with.
June 12, 2015 6:57 a.m.
I get what you're saying mate. I felt the need to go on a rant like this yesterday after reading a bunch of whiny posts about how Modern was slowly getting impossible to get into. It sounds like you were reading the same posts.
June 12, 2015 7:11 a.m.
There is also an element of economic privilege at play here. The whole 'suck it up and buy them anyway' is all well and good if you have the means available to you but pretty unfair to use as a blanket response to somebody who doesn't have the same option available. I think it's important to remember that players come from all backgrounds so certain gripes are legitimate at times. Especially in the wake of certain spikes. For example, someone with less money building a certain deck might be very upset that Oblivion Stone has risen so much. It's not a problem for me, and maybe not so much for you, but for them it is. It's worth keeping this in mind.
Remember to be considerate to everyone and not just wave away their concerns. They may not be in the same situation as you. Blanket statements like 'just buy them anyway', 'work another job', 'it doesn't really matter', are not that helpful or understanding. I feel we should be more inclusive.
June 12, 2015 7:17 a.m.
Good words there Chief.
I find a lot of players who have access to a larger library of cards, or who have the funds to go out and buy what they want tend to be the players who are also more elitist about things (not 100% of the time, but from my experience more so)
It's all about being inclusive. It's why I find the Legacy scene so enjoyable. I can't afford $3000 to buy a Miracles deck, but my friend who has loads of different Legacy decks will lend his out to me and I can borrow cards from other Legacy players to tweak it the way I like.
I don't find any such attitudes among Standard/Modern players, or at least not in the same way. I know many players who have additional sets of Goyf's, Lilly's etc and would never lend them out in a million years.
I know people don't HAVE to lend there cards, especially when they are worth money, but if we want more people in the scene and want to encourage people to explore formats beyond standard we need to help those players get involved. Lending decks or expensive rare cards to help players out is the best way really. As long as you or someone you trust is at the event, the risk is practically none. As said, Legacy players will happily lend out thousands of dollars worth of cards just to help people get involved in the format and allow for a more enjoyable experience for everyone.
June 12, 2015 7:37 a.m.
I regularly lend out shocklands, fetchlands, goyfs, and lilis to people who I know fairly well. Caveat being that I have to know that person personally.
I think inclusion is really, really important because I don't want to put anyone off the game.
Also worth noting that I own all of these cards and I'm totally not against a thorough reprint policy because my cards are just the tools I use to play the game, not a way to make money in 5 years time.
Again - variety, understanding, inclusion. These are all keywords. If they borrow a deck off me and then decide to buy into a cheap deck themselves later - great! That's really, really healthy for the game.
June 12, 2015 7:42 a.m.
Honestly, Magic speculation is what has made me switch my major to Economics. I acutally find it really interesting, and as weird (and kind of sad) as it is to say, I think I actually enjoy trading more than I enjoy playing.
If you are trying to improve your magic collection from a nothing stand point, Here's my advice:
BEFORE DOING ANYTHING, DO YOUR RESEARCH. IF YOU CAN'T SHOW YOUR WORK, YOU CAN'T LEARN FROM IT.
1) Learn playability value of cards. Part of this point is based on personal interpretation, but looking at cards and figuring out whether they are playable in eternal formats is the basis of standard speculation. Monastery Swiftspear and Destructive Revelry, while both seemingly obvious choices, are cards that will retain their "value" long after they have rotated. Smash to Smithereens was $5 dollars before being reprinted in MM2105. I use this card as example why revelry will possibly be in the same situation in a few years.
2) Figure out what to keep, and what to get rid of. Eidolon of the Great Revel is only going up after he rotates. Nissa, Worldwaker is only going down. If you understand why, you also know when the best time to pick them up is. If you don't understand why, DO SOME RESEARCH. Figure it out.
3) NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE VALUE OF CHEAP PLAYABLES. Everyone in my store wants Gitaxian Probe. I have two playsets. why? Because they are not only good cards, but they also will retain their value if not go up. they didn't get reprinted in MM2105, and they are unlikely to see a reprint outside of an event deck or the next Modern Masters. I will eventually get rid of one of the sets, but seeing as it's $12.00 for a playset right now, I can probably wait until it's $20 for a playset, or if they are anything like Serum Visions, $40.
4) DO YOUR RESEARCH. THIS CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH. If you aren't willing to figure out how the market works, you will get fucked over by it, and it will be all your fault. It's a financially strenuous hobby, and therefore requires effort equal to the amount you want to improve your collection. It's exactly like people who use Macs versus people who use linux. Mac users expect simplicity. Linux users expect optimal performance after personal effort.
5) If you can, Trade up. Someone wants the random Dragonlord Ojutai sitting in your binder? see nothing that you really want in their binder? Trade it for something like an Abrupt Decay and a Wooded Foothills. both of these cards have eternal value, are easily tradable, and are more likely to go up in value over time than Ojutai is. "but Ojutai will only go up once rotation hits!". Then don't trade him yet, or accept you'll lose a few dollars now, for more value later. Ojutai will likely be worth ~$5 come his rotation. Why? DO YOUR RESEARCH. FIGURE IT OUT.
P.S. I'm typing this right before I pass out. Feel free to correct me if you think my points/speculation are off.
June 12, 2015 8:10 a.m.
I think what bothers me is when I see people complaining about the "price" of modern when we are in the process of seeing so many price drops. I decided against ranting myself for reasons similar to those you stated ChiefBell, but I sympathize with the OP. The glass is half full, and if you don't look at it that way yourself you're liable to go crazy.
I like GoofyFoot's contribution. Good advice.
June 12, 2015 8:41 a.m.
HolyFalcon says... #15
Maltanis: With my standard friends we borrow sleeves, cards, playmate, etc. Kinda sounds like your Standard community isn't very welcoming. :(
On the point of discussion, I agree with this. Modern Staples DO get reprints not in MM. FNM promos get them out to players of all formats, and encourage them to play modern. We also have them reprinted in widely opened sets(see khans).
June 12, 2015 8:55 a.m.
Magicrafter: Actually my community is really welcoming and friendly, the main Standard crowd share cards and lend all the time.
However there is a set of players who are more competitive in the room (go to GP's, PPTQ's, etc) who I know have vast selection of cards that they lend among themselves and use to make their decks as good as possible (which I can't complain about or criticise them for, it's their playgroup and I respect that). But I see people in the group looking to borrow certain cards that I know they have sets of and they never pipe up offering to lend them out, and I've seen players been put of the format due to expense and the inability to compete against these guys who have T1 decks week in week out. The funny thing is they would get better practice if they lent cards out and probably have a more enjoyable time, but they seem more focused on "winning at all costs" rather than fostering an enjoyable environment at all. I can't say anything to them because it's their choice at the end of the day, but I can see the effects of them being unwilling to get involved with newer players and help them out where needed, which is a crucial part of the MTG community in my opinion.
It's players as described above who irk me, they seem to enjoy the game, have their own little group of friends they play with, but outside of that have little to no respect for anyone not playing at their level or above. It's definitely hampered some of the guys from playing modern. Thankfully MM2015 got people excited for it, and people started buying into decks in advance, to the extent we are actually getting more Modern players than Standard in some weeks.
Expensive to get into Modern is always a barrier for some, but we get over it as we play more over time. I got into Modern when the Modern Event Deck came out and I had a way to easily enter into the format without much of a cost. I used that to trade into more pieces, traded out of Ravnica stuff before rotation etc. Come February I'd traded/bought into Affinity. It's possible, but takes time, and a lot of people want to play it now which is why they see that $1000 deck and get put of. Part of being involved in any format outside of Standard requires a slow build up of money to get what you want.
June 12, 2015 9:57 a.m.
It's not that insanely bad. I've traded for half of my current list using older stuff I had from rav theros era. Entry into modern becomes tricky if you have no existing base to trade away. Wotc is doing a decent job with reprints. Still, I can't help feel like some cards bear an insane price tag with not enough to justify their price. Think linvalla or clique. Fetches in bfz would help a ton. Same for man lands.
June 12, 2015 10:15 a.m.
WovenNebula says... #18
As a player that has been playing since revised (1994), the last two years have been ridiculous in regards to the economics of mtg. Considering that I'm old and some contributing factors are the mythic rarity, these are trying times in mtg especially to get into other formats. (Keep in mind I have most staples in my collection) I know magic has come a long way and more popular, but supply should be driven it up. Sadly tho it seems WoTC cares more about the secondary market than they lead on about....
vishnarg says... #2
Agree, agree, agree. Well said. You get my seal of approval.
June 12, 2015 2:20 a.m.