Rotation in September - cards to invest in?
Economics forum
Posted on July 12, 2017, 2:20 p.m. by abby315
(P.S: I know this could go in the spec thread, but I figured it would be way too long for a comment @_@)
Ixalan is going to be a really weird set. I expect the prices will be much higher than we're used to, because it won't have Masterpieces OR double-sided cards to drive standard rare prices down, AND because it rotates four sets on release, making null a lot of popular decks like Zombies.
It's been a LONG time since we had a rotation, so I'm already looking ahead to see what kind of big standard players are rotating, and which cards might be their replacement (and thus go up in price). I'm specifically looking at TYPES of cards that slot into many different decks; I'm not trying to predict the metagame, just assuming there will be decks that want X kind of creature, X kind of removal spell. Here's what I've got.
BIG ROTATERS: Creatures
Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger This, along with other big Eldrazi like World Breaker, will probably have the biggest shockwaves for standard decks going forward. Both ramp and cheat-creatures-into-play (/reanimate) decks lose their best payoffs. As a result, I'm keeping an eye on big demons like Razaketh, the Foulblooded and Herald of Anguish, other big impact permanents like Nicol Bolas, God-Pharaoh and Overwhelming Splendor , and the Gearhulks.
Thraben Inspector and Cryptbreaker
Oof! Two colors lose their best one drops that create card advantage. These are all-stars in aggressive creature lists like Vehicles and Zombies, but have also contributed to a format where a t1 play gives you a huge advantage. I expect 2 things to happen: one-drop proactive action, like perhaps Reason / Believe or Narnam Renegade, gets better; and the two-drop becomes more important. HOWEVER:
Sylvan Advocate, Grim Flayer, Duskwatch Recruiter Flip
These two drop engines are also leaving, meaning the two drop slot in midrange decks will likely be filled by mana dorks (as they are now), or perhaps two drops like Hapatra, Vizier of Poisons or Glint-Sleeve Siphoner. Might be a good idea to pick up some Channeler Initiates.
There's a lot of valuable creatures rotating, including Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet, but none generate quite as much value as this one. TT is creature decks' #1 way to not run out of gas and stay ahead of control decks. While no creature will probably reach parity with its insane snowball potential, I think cards like Glint-Sleeve Siphoner or Vizier of the Menagerie may see more play as a way for creature decks to stay up on cards. I have some hopes about Reason / Believe in this spot, too.
The last big impact creature that's rotating. This frees up the 5 drop slot in white decks quite a bit, but sadly nothing really matches her surprise stabilizing/aggressive power. This gives a big boost to Glorybringer. It also may boost Crested Sunmare, which does a fairly good stabilizing impression if you have one trigger on endstep. Also keep an eye on Angel of Sanctions!
BIG ROTATERS: Planeswalkers
OK, she's not as big as I'd like her to be, but I do think that at $3 Samut, the Tested is a reasonable pick up. Red/green/x creature decks will be hurting for planeswalkers, and all she takes is 1 good creature with trample or a combat damage trigger. But don't forget Chandra, Torch of Defiance! I expect her to get MUCH better after rotation, when she doesn't have to compete for mainboard space against Arlinn OR...
Gideon, Ally of Zendikar (and Nissa, Voice of Zendikar])
So the token walkers rotate, meaning 4-mana creatures and planeswalkers just got better, and you no longer have to ask yourself if your 4 or 5 drop can compete with an enemy Gid, AOZ. I think this is a win for Hazoret the Fervent along with Chandra, and I'm keeping an eye on 3-4 drops in Ixalan.
Ob Nixilis Reignited and Jace, Unraveler of Secrets
The twin 5-drop walkers both offered midrange control decks recurring card advantage. I don't know what might replace them, but I know decks will be looking for ways to stabilize and rebuild a hand after spending turns on removal.
I don't know what to do with this because she was probably too powerful to begin with, but this makes aggro slightly better, x/1's better, and replacement ways for midrange to close out a game (without her ultimate) better.
BIG ROTATERS: Removal
2-mana B/W Removal
Grasp of Darkness, Immolating Glare, Blessed Alliance and Declaration in Stone all rotate, and I seriously doubt Ixalan will cover those holes on release. My biggest prediction is that Abrade and Harnessed Lightning get a HUGE upgrade from these rotating, and red will be the color of choice for midrange and control supporting colors.
Stasis Snare, Anguished Unmaking, To the Slaughter , and Murder
See above, except Cast Out is now premium against decks that present multiple kinds of threats, so I would continue picking those up. Never / Return and Unlicensed Disintegration also get more relevant.
Kozilek's Return and Radiant Flames , Flaying Tendrils
Look into getting some Sweltering Suns as the best 3-mana wipe, and Yahenni's Expertise maybe, though I just see a trend of black control getting nerfed. Also, without the above exile effects or Flaying Tendrils, both Scrapheap Scrounger and its foil Magma Spray get more relevant.
I also think Hour of Devastation may get better as red moves into a more controlling support color and maybe kicks out black and white.
TAKEAWAYS / TL;DR
Obviously, a lot of other powerful cards are rotating, too. I'll be missing my Sphinx of the Final Word and Fevered Visions vs control decks.
In preparing for rotation, I'm going to be picking up the following cards for cheap whenever I can:
Glorybringer ($3.50)
Abrade (.60c)
Cast Out ($1)
I'm also keeping an eye on Channeler Initiate, The Scarab God, The Scorpion God, and Razaketh, the Foulblooded, though each would probably have to go down before I'd pick up over a playset.
I think Chandra, Torch of Defiance, Rhonas the Indomitable, and Hazoret the Fervent may go up post-rotation.
And in Ixalan, I'll be looking out for cheap B/W removal, big creatures with an ETB or activated ability payoff, and 3-4 drop card advantage creatures. These cards may fill holes that deck archetypes will have after rotation.
Agree or disagree with my analysis? Think of any other cards that might be contenders in a brand new standard? Let me know!
VampireArmy says... #3
Keep a keen eye on any mono red staples. When the format becomes unclear, the first thing people revert back to is mono-x aggro. Red being the most supported usually.
July 12, 2017 6:45 p.m.
Nice evaluation it was pretty spot on for replacing certain cards. I am a little iffy on sunmare and angel of sanctions just because angel dies so easy and is a huge tempo loss when it does and sunmare is pretty hard to trigger consistently but I do think sunmare has promise. Anyway I think something very important to consider (not just necessarily from a financial perspective but a tournament perspective) is which decks already exist and which will exist post rotation which you kind of touched on without naming specific decks. As VampireArmy (I tried linking his name but it didnt quite work) mentioned when a format becomes unclear people play a pretty low to the ground aggressive deck.
Currently red does not really have the tools for that so what I expect to see is some sort of RW or mardu aggressive deck similar to mardu vehicles that currently exists but way more aggressive and probably just seeing Chandra, Torch of Defiance in the main deck as a form of top end. The other biggest contender early on is temur energy. This deck loses very much and still has most of its powerful hitters. Longtusk Cub, Bristling Hydra, Chandra, Torch of Defiance , and Glorybringer.
If you want to invest in cards I would say Chandra, Torch of Defiance although currently seeing a ton of play has the highest growth potential since itll probably replace gideon in most aggressive/midrange decks. Next would probably be Glorybringer. The biggest problem with standard sets recently is its just not easy to "invest in" because all the cards are so cheap because for the most part the best cards are rares and most of the mythics kind of suck. That and people have opened sets a bit more due to invocations so my advice is not to invest much into the cards now unless they are things like chandra and glorybringer.
July 12, 2017 8:07 p.m.
landofMordor Thanks! Of the two, I definitely think Supreme Will is the card to bet on, since Walking Ballista's popularity (and growing realization that it probably belongs in most decks) keeps the 3/1 in check. And uncommons are very easy to pick up.
VampireArmy: I don't like to try and predict meta for new sets because it changes so heavily based on releases, but I'd bet on the two energy decks: G/R Pummeler and Temur midrange. They don't lose their core of Attune with Aether, Harnessed Lightning and energy payoffs, and fast linear decks with some interaction are always good on release. Part of the reason I have Temur built ;)
EmblemMan: Thanks! I agree re: Chandra. She's hard to invest in right now but I'm doing my best to pick up a couple copies; her ceiling rose as soon as she saw moderate modern play.
I usually agree with you about standard investments, but I diverge in two ways for Ixalan:
1) I suspect Ixalan will throw back to Theros, where standard cards held value even if they weren't eternally playable, because the masterpieces will be gone, UNLESS Wizards announces some other pack-opening gimmick like double-sided cards.
2) I also suspect that pre-release prices will not reflect that accurately for at least a couple days. Stores have gotten used to rock bottom standard prices and oversupply. I picked up 10 Glorybringer at one-frickin-dollar each during AKH prerelease and sold a playset at $50 a couple weeks later (when it spiked to $16). I could see the same thing happening with Ixalan, but even steadier if people aren't cracking packs for a chance at Masterpieces.
3) And I mostly invest in standard for trading. I'm not a hardcore investor by any means, but here and especially at my LGS, in-demand standard staples are easily traded up for eternal format staples I need as long as I trade in their favor. Plus I can use them to build a standard deck both by trading them for other standard cards and getting staples for cheap before they're valuable. When I get to flip them for cash it's just gravy!
Basically, I use them as format currency so I can play the game cheaper than normal, but still competitively :)
July 12, 2017 10:03 p.m. Edited.
abby315 I completely agree with the ixalan comments. I specifically left out talking about ixalan and forward because some sets will not have masterpieces. People have been opening a lot more to try to get masterpieces and that is definitely part of the reason that CURRENT standard staples are going to have a hard time raising but as you have clearly pointed out some very powerful cards like glorybringer can see big rises an dips similar to Courser of Kruphix (you mentioned theros and my heart fluttered I loved that set) and Hangarback Walker they saw some play then saw a ton of play and shot up towards 20 bucks which is quite a bit for a standard staple. I could definitely see something like this happening to a couple current standard staples and definitely to future cards. Most likely in the sets that don't have masterpieces.
July 12, 2017 10:22 p.m.
VampireArmy it is! I'm loving it. Earthshaker Khenra is so fun. Ramunap ruins gives the deck so much reach.
And the 15 Abrades I bought for 50c each are now 2.50 low ;)
landofMordor says... #2
Very thorough analysis -- I couldn't agree more. There's also Spell Queller rotating, which will be rough on UW Flash. I expect the replacement to be Supreme Will or Nimble Obstructionist.
July 12, 2017 4:49 p.m.