Shock land lows
Economics forum
Posted on Aug. 12, 2014, 4:59 p.m. by Doom_of_Valyria
First off, I apologize, there's probably already a similar topic on the matter. Since I didn't see anything in the first 3 pages of Economics, I decided to post my own to follow:
So, I'm looking to pick up shocks for cheap, only I'm not sure when the best time will be. I've obviously heard they will fall with rotation, but will rise again. I was just curious what the low price range for shocks will be in your opinions? Are we talking the $5-$10 range or do you think they could dip below $5? And when will they start increasing again?
GoldGhost012 says... #3
Agreed. I don't see them dropping below where they are now unless they're currently $12-15. And even then they may only drop to $10.
August 12, 2014 5:14 p.m.
I would say that for all the ones below $10 right now (I'm looking at you Hallowed Fountain ) pick them up immediately. They are already starting to go back up in price
August 12, 2014 5:23 p.m.
Doom_of_Valyria says... #5
Hey thanks for the advice everyone, I actually just snatched up 3 shocks on eBay, the most expensive was $8.
August 12, 2014 5:28 p.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #6
lol they dropped, they've been climbing back up lately.
August 12, 2014 5:28 p.m.
Gidgetimer says... #7
Most of the shocks hit a high around the end of April and have been falling since then. I'm unsure where people are getting "they are going back up" from. I suspect that you can expect each of them to drop around $2 from where they currently are. It isn't a matter of what they are "worth" is is a matter of the supply is going to go up as people sell off the supply they have in their standard decks.
Some people will make the transition from standard to modern with this rotation. However that happens with each rotation. There will still be areas where the only formats available at FNM are standard and draft. There will be people who already have the shocks for their modern deck(s) and don't want to keep shocks they will not use. So no matter what the supply of shocks will go up and the demand will go down. Economics 101 dictates that this will make prices fall.
August 12, 2014 5:42 p.m.
The advice given by everyone else is exactly right IMO. However, you may want to think about the standard season after standard rotates when not as many are playing modern and they are out of standard. The addition of a Modern PT does hurt, though.
August 12, 2014 5:47 p.m.
Gidgetimer click the link to Hallowed Fountain and look at the price graph. You'll see that it has stabilized around 8.30 fluctuating from day to day ~.05 with no general trend. I may have been wrong about it climbing back up, but it has definitely hit the bottom now and will not fall any more
August 12, 2014 6:05 p.m.
Gidgetimer says... #11
Speculation is speculation. I don't know how you can say prices have "definitely" done anything. Also even the zoomed in graph you show has the price falling from an average of $8.40 to $8.30 over the last month. Anything smaller than a month (especially the last 6 days which is how long the +-.05 statement stays valid for) I reject as too small of a sample for pricing trends.
August 12, 2014 6:19 p.m.
If you want to reject it as too small of a sample size, that is your prerogative. I believe based on my previous experience and the reading I have done, that shocks are at their lowest right now. We may see them fall another ~.10 but in my opinion that is negligible. If you view that .10 as NOT negligible, by all means continue to wait.
August 12, 2014 6:47 p.m.
Epochalyptik says... #13
The shocks won't fall below $7, and certainly won't hit $5. Whether they fall at all is subject to debate. As I say every time this thread comes up, people have gotten smarter about Magic economics. Ever since ISD and Snapcaster Mage , the community at large has been aware of the long-term value of eternal and Modern staples. As a result, those cards tend not to flood the market in the way they did before Modern.
Combine economic sensibility with the desire of established players to transition to Modern and you have a situation in which prices are unlikely to fall all that much. Because Modern is the next most accessible constructed format, and because the barrier to entry for Modern is relatively high, many Standard-to-Modern players are going to want to hold onto staples like the shocks so they can ease their transition.
Osang says... #2
I doubt that people are oblivious to the value of the Shocklands for anything below 9-10$ a pop. Modern is a growing format, and these lands are as crucial to the format as the Fetches they use.
August 12, 2014 5:07 p.m.