Sitting on khans' booster boxes

Economics forum

Posted on Jan. 25, 2016, 10:48 p.m. by ZeGinger

Obviously because of fetchlands lol, but in the long term would this be a good investment? I don't see why the product wouldn't go up in price due to the prescense of fetchlands, but I'm wrong about this stuff more often than not, so

What are your thoughts about this idea?

joshnothnagle says... #2

I feel like there are worse boxes to sit on. The fetches are going to push up the estimated value of the box over time, but another card I think makes the box worth holding is Monastery Swiftspear. Unless WOtC is planning on printing insane one-drops regularly, that card will gain value over time.

But let's break down the numbers. Fetches were printed as rares in that set, and there are 63 non-fetches that could be in the rare spot (48 rares and 15 mythics). You are 5 times more likely to open a fetch than any individual non-fetch. So the EV of the box will assume that there are between two and three fetches in there. Add in the one or two Swiftspears that the box is assumed to have (80 uncommons in the set, three uncommons per pack, 36 packs in a box), and you can start to figure out where the price of the box will end up.

There are a few other cards in there that are seeing eternal play, and if their price goes up you can add that information when you're deciding if you made the right choice. But remember there are more cards that are as unplayable as Ankle Shanker than there are playable cards (if it gets unbanned) like Dig Through Time.

Hope that gives you enough information to feel more confident in this investment and the next.

January 26, 2016 12:24 a.m.